TED演講者：Katherine Mangu-Ward / 利奧·蘭納 勒維卡斯·菲亞特

演講標題：What capitalism gets right -- and governments get wrong / 亞馬遜雨林里螳螂的色彩斑斕與形態(tài)各異之美

內(nèi)容概要：Is capitalism a good thing? Journalist Katherine Mangu-Ward makes the case that "weirdos" left alone to innovate and explore far-out ideas in a free market system are our best hope for the future. She asks us to reconsider our qualms about capitalism, failure and corporate death, analyzing the recent history of General Motors and Facebook to illustrate why we're better off with a lot less government intervention.

在這場引人入勝的講座中，我們將進入亞馬遜雨林較人想象的更富有色彩的夜晚——藝術(shù)昆蟲學家利奧·蘭納（Leo Lanna）和設(shè)計師勒維卡斯·菲亞特（Lvcas Fiat）將向我們介紹他們?yōu)橹缘捏脒@種生物的姿態(tài)變幻之美。蘭納和菲亞特用一種融合了科學、藝術(shù)和保護的創(chuàng)新方式，揭示了這個自然王國中出乎意料的生物多樣性，也證明了地球上的探險時代遠未結(jié)束。

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【1】Hi, I'm Katherine, and I like capitalism, a lot.

大家好,我是凱瑟琳 （Katherine）, 我喜歡資本主義, 非常喜歡。

【2】But in my 20 years as a libertarian journalist, I have started to pick up that some people aren't as fond of capitalism as I am.

但是在我 20 年的 自由意志主義記者的職業(yè)生涯中, 我逐漸發(fā)現(xiàn) 有些人沒有我這么喜歡資本主義。

【3】That's fine, but here's the thing.

沒關(guān)系,但是有一點。

【4】I think a lot of the stuff that you think you hate about capitalism is actually stuff to hate about government.

我認為,有些你討厭資本主義的方面 其實是討厭政府的方面。

【5】Before we get started kvetching, though, I want to sing you a little song, and you've probably heard it before, so feel free to sing along, if you like.

但是在我開始發(fā)牢騷之前, 我想唱一首歌,你可能以前也聽過, 如果你愿意的話可以一起唱。

【6】Don’t worry, I’m not actually going to sing. It’s fine.

別擔心,我沒有真要唱,沒事。

【7】200 years ago, in 1820, the global rate of absolute poverty -- which is defined, imperfectly, as living on less than one dollar and 90 cents a day -- was 84 percent.

200 年以前,1820 年, 全球絕對貧困率—— 不完全準確的定義為 每日生活支出低于 1.90 美元, 數(shù)值為 84%。

【8】That's enormous.

這可是個不小的數(shù)目。

【9】Today, the World Bank puts that number at nine percent.

如今,世界銀行公布 低于貧困線人口數(shù)據(jù)為 9%。

【10】Over the same period, life expectancy went from less than 30 years to 72, and there were similarly remarkable gains in access to food, water, housing, education during that period.

在這 200 年的時間里, 人口預期壽命 從低于 30 歲升至 72 歲, 同樣的改善情況也出現(xiàn)在 同時期的食物、水資源、 住房、教育資源供應上。

【11】That period coincides so neatly with the rise of global capitalism that I flatly refuse to believe it's a coincidence.

這個時期恰逢 全球資本主義的崛起時期, 吻合得讓我不敢相信這只是個巧合。

【12】I think sometimes, we get so caught up in talking about what capitalism could or should be that we forget what it has been and what it is.

我覺得有時候,我們忙于討論 資本主義到底會變成什么樣, 或者應該變成什么樣, 以致于我們忘記了 資本主義的歷史和本質(zhì)。

【13】So I wanted to just take a minute to do some, like, greatest hits of capitalism.

我想花一兩分鐘談談 資本主義的一些重大突破。

【14】They include electric light, personal mobile phones, cheap fertilizer, commercial aviation.

包括電燈、個人手機、 低價肥料、民用航空。

【15】And current capitalists are working on cool stuff like cryptocurrencies and geoengineering and plant-based meat.

當今的資本主義者 在研究一些酷炫的東西, 比如加密貨幣、地球工程、 植物肉。

【16】I also recently learned that there is a zero-sugar, alcoholic version of Taco Bell's Baja Blast Mountain Dew.

我最近聽說塔可貝爾（Taco Bell）的 激浪 Baja Blast 系列飲料 竟然還有無糖有酒精版本。

【17】(Laughter) And I don't actually know if that's a point for or against my argument, but I did feel like you should know.

（笑聲） 其實我也不知道 這該不該是我觀點的論據(jù), 但是我覺得你該知道這個消息。

【18】(Laughter) So, amongst all of this miraculous market activity, we also have government, and that means we have two problems.

（笑聲） 在這些市場活動的奇跡中, 我們還有政府, 這意味著我們有兩個問題。

【19】The first problem is that governments don't love it when weird new stuff gets born.

第一個問題,政府不喜歡 這種奇怪新事物的到來。

【20】Second problem is that governments also don't love it when familiar old stuff dies.

第二個問題,政府也不喜歡 熟悉舊事物的消逝。

【21】So let's talk about the new stuff first.

我們先來說說新事物吧。

【22】The thing about capitalism is that it is an emergent system.

資本主義重要的一點就是 它是一個逐漸成長的系統(tǒng)。

【23】It's, like all evolutionary mechanisms, powered by mutations.

這些逐漸發(fā)展的機制 都建立在新變化上。

【24】And in this case, what the mutations are are very weird people trying new stuff.

新變化就是 奇奇怪怪的人嘗試新事物。

【25】And when we need really big progress, big new stuff, that means we need really, really weird people.

如果我們想要顯著進步、 偉大創(chuàng)新的話, 就意味著我們需要相當奇怪的人。

【26】Elon, looking at you, buddy. I don't know where you are today.

埃?。‥lon Musk）,說的就是你。 雖然我也不知道你在哪兒。

【27】(Laughter) Prior to the rise of modern capitalism, it absolutely sucked to be weird.

（笑聲） 在現(xiàn)代資本主義崛起之前, 奇怪的行為會讓你處境比較艱難。

【28】Best-case scenario -- a new idea ended up kind of dying on the vine for lack of opportunities or resources to go forward.

最好的情況是一個新點子 由于缺乏推進的機會或者資源 不了了之。

【29】Worst-case scenario, trying something heroic and new could put you at odds with the powers that be in times and places when those powers were absolute.

最差的情況是 嘗試一些偉大創(chuàng)新 會讓你和當朝的極權(quán)權(quán)貴 發(fā)生齟齬。

【30】So imagine you have a great plan to open up a new trade route between Europe and Asia during the Anglo-Dutch Wars.

假設(shè)在英荷戰(zhàn)爭時期, 你試圖在歐亞之間 開通一條新的貿(mào)易航線。

【31】That is a brilliant way to get a face full of cannonballs.

那你就可以充分體驗挨槍子的滋味。

【32】I'm not saying that every weirdo has a brilliant apocalypse-averting idea that also happens to be a viable commercial enterprise.

我的意思不是 每個怪人開天辟地的新點子 都正好是個可行的商業(yè)企劃。

【33】Most new ideas are bad.

大多數(shù)的新點子都不是好點子。

【34】There’s a reason people haven’t done it before.

前無古人不是沒有道理的。

【35】Just like most mutations are evolutionary dead ends.

就像大多數(shù)的轉(zhuǎn)變 都是逐漸走向滅亡的過程。

【36】But that's OK, because high-functioning capitalism is characterized by a tremendous amount of corporate failure.

但是沒關(guān)系,高功能的資本主義 本來就有大量的企業(yè)失敗。

【37】Governments don't actually like it when familiar old corporations fail.

但是政府可不喜歡傳統(tǒng)企業(yè)垮臺。

【38】They prefer to do business with the taxable, already regulated devils that they know.

政府喜歡 和已經(jīng)馴服的納稅惡魔做交易。

【39】But that's too bad, because my personal favorite thing about companies is that they can die.

這也太不好了, 因為我最喜歡企業(yè)的一點就是 它們會倒閉。

【40】When companies die, of course, that imposes a hardship on customers, on employees, on communities, on your 401(k).

當然企業(yè)倒閉了 會讓顧客、員工、社會、 你的 401(k) 計劃 （養(yǎng)老保險）不太好過。

【41】My family wasn't allowed to set foot in a Walmart for a generation, after Walmart put my granddaddy's general store out of business, so I get it.

沃爾瑪讓我祖父的店倒閉了, 所以我家一整代人 都不允許踏足沃爾瑪, 所以我懂的。

【42】At the same time, failure is the fate of nearly every company, and that is why capitalism works.

與此同時,幾乎每個公司 都命中注定會失敗, 也就是為什么 資本主義可以運轉(zhuǎn)起來。

【43】Imagine, if you will, when a company fails, it releases into the market labor and resources, talent that can be better used elsewhere.

想像一下,一家公司倒閉了, 把勞動力和資源釋放進市場, 人才可以在別處得到更好的利用。

【44】Imagine a tree falling in the forest and rotting and fueling new growth.

類似于一棵樹在森林里倒下了, 腐爛但滋養(yǎng)了新生。

【45】Good news, though, for fans of corporate death like myself: the original Fortune 500 list, in 1955 -- of the companies on that list, only 52 are still on the list.

但是有個好消息要帶給 我這樣的企業(yè)倒閉愛好者們: 位列 1955 年的首次 《財富》世界 500 強公司 如今只有 52 家還在排行榜上。

【46】That means 90 percent of those companies either went under, or merged, or fell off the list altogether.

意味著有 90% 的公司要么倒閉了, 要么被合并了, 要么徹底跌出榜單了。

【47】And corporate death does seem to be accelerating.

企業(yè)倒閉的進程確實在加速。

【48】The life span of a company on the S and P 500 was 61 years in the late '50s; today, it's less than 18.

標準普爾 500 指數(shù)（S&P 500） 顯示在 50 年代后期, 一家公司的壽命為 61 年, 而現(xiàn)在壽命低于 18 年。

【49】To better understand this corporate birth-and-death dynamic, I’m going to tell you two wildly oversimplified stories.

為了更好地理解企業(yè)的生死規(guī)律, 我要給大家講兩個大量刪減版故事。

【50】The first is about General Motors, and the second is about Facebook.

第一個是通用汽車公司, 第二個是 Facebook。

【51】Now, I didn't pick these companies because I think they are particularly evil or even terribly unusual.

我選這兩個公司不是因為 我覺得它們太壞了, 或者太不一般了。

【52】They're doing stuff that makes sense in a system that's a little bit broken.

它們只是在一個有點崩壞的系統(tǒng)里 做一些正常的事。

【53】So let's start by talking about General Motors.

我們先來看通用汽車。

【54】General Motors is actually one of the tiny number of companies from that original Fortune 500 list in 1955 that's still hanging out near the top.

通用汽車其實是 1955 年的 500 強公司里 屈指可數(shù)現(xiàn)在依舊名列前茅的 公司之一。

【55】And starting a car company is moderately nuts.

開家車企是件大膽的事。

【56】Really, at any time.

真的,一直是這樣。

【57】It's a pretty impressive thing that they took what was once a ridiculous luxury and turned it into an everyday necessity.

太厲害了, 他們就這樣把曾經(jīng)的奢侈品 變成了日常必需品。

【58】But then, government got used to GM, GM got used to governments.

然后,政府就適應了通用汽車, 通用汽車也適應了政府。

【59】And by 1981, government is using the power of eminent domain to wipe out an entire working-class neighborhood in Detroit just because GM wants to build a factory there.

到了 1981 年, 政府利用土地征用權(quán) 征用了底特律整個工薪階層社區(qū), 只是因為通用汽車 想在那里建一座工廠。

【60】That coddling continues through the 2008 financial crisis, when GM received really quite a massive bailout from the government.

這種縱容特權(quán)行為 持續(xù)到了 2008 年金融危機, 政府給了通用汽車一大筆紓困金。

【61】That's not market failure, that's government failure.

這不是市場的失敗, 而是政府的失敗。

【62】Market would have stripped GM for parts a long time ago.

市場早就要肢解通用汽車了。

【63】Now let's talk about Facebook.

我們來看看 Facebook。

【64】Same deal, right?

同樣的情況,對吧？

【65】Sort of, wacky people trying something new just to see if it'll work.

怪人嘗試新事物, 只是想看看搞不搞得成。

【66】And at first, Facebook was fun, remember?

還記得 Facebook 剛開始的時候 是很好玩的嗎？

【67】We got hot dates and we found lost dogs, and college reunions became totally obsolete, which was awesome.

我們可以約會、找到走丟的狗狗、 再也沒有大學同學會了,太棒了。

【68】(Laughter) A few people made a lot of money, and the rest of us were a little bit better off.

（笑聲） 有些人賺了很多錢, 然后其他人的條件都好了點。

【69】But, flash forward 14 or 15 years, and Facebook is being called repeatedly to the congressional carpet to answer for, actually, all the sins of big tech.

但是,往后推 14、15 年, Facebook 成為了 議會質(zhì)詢的?？? 為大型科技公司的一切罪行辯解。

【70】Mark Zuckerberg, though, takes a conciliatory stance.

但是馬克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg） 采取了緩和立場。

【71】He asks only to be allowed to help write the regulations that will govern his firm, and, coincidentally, those of his competitors.

他只要求被允許參與制訂 管理他自己公司的條例, 但是正好它的競爭對手公司 也在條例管理范圍之內(nèi)。

【72】Here's where it gets a little complicated, though, because even as some legislators are working with Facebook lobbyists to write rules for the industry, others have introduced a bill to break up Facebook and punish it for its sheer size.

這就是復雜的地方, 因為就算有些立法者 和 Facebook 的說客一起 制訂了行業(yè)的規(guī)定, 有其他的立法者 制訂了一個拆解 Facebook 的法案, 制裁 Facebook 的大體量。

【73】Meanwhile, an informal poll of the Gen Zers in my life informs me that Facebook is "cringe."

與此同時,我調(diào)查了一些身邊的 Z 世代（95 - 05 年生人）, 他們說 Facebook 讓他們 “尷尬癌犯了”。

【74】(Laughter) TikTok is eating Facebook’s lunch, and the first-quarter earnings report of Meta came with a surprise.

（笑聲） TikTok（抖音海外）占據(jù)了 Facebook 的地盤, Meta（原 Facebook）的 第一季度財報讓人大吃一驚。

【75】The market cap of the firm had actually dropped below the level written into that bill to punish firms for being too big.

Meta 的市值已經(jīng) 跌至低于法案 制裁 Facebook 過大的市值水平。

【76】So the joke's on Congress.

這時候要看議會的笑話了。

【77】Facebook is going to end up avoiding regulation by shrinking, but unfortunately, it's going to take its competitors with it.

Facebook 為了不被制裁 而縮小體量, 但是不幸的是, 它要拉著競爭對手陪葬。

【78】This is a classic example of politicians being lagging, not leading, indicators.

這是一個政客引起拖累 而不是引導作用的典型例子。

【79】We are rich thanks to two centuries of global capitalism, but we do still have problems.

這 200 年的全球資本主義 讓我們變得富有, 但是依舊問題重重。

【80】As a great sage once observed, “mo money” may in fact correlate with “mo problems.”

有一個智者發(fā)現(xiàn) 錢越多,問題越多。

【81】(Laughter) The way forward is to figure out what the public and private sector can each do best and help them figure out how to stay in their lane.

（笑聲） 未來的方向是要搞清楚 公共部門和私營機構(gòu) 分別擅長做什么, 并且如何幫助它們各行其是。

【82】When it comes to government, I am open to the possibility that the answer to what it can do best is ...

談到政府, 我認為很有可能 它到底擅長做什么的答案就是——

【83】nothing.

無。

【84】(Laughter) But we don't all have to become anarchists today.

（笑聲） 但是我們不用每個人都是 無政府主義者。

【85】It's clear that liberal institutions, rule of law, functioning courts, private-property rights have been very powerful in this project of fostering innovation.

自由主義制度、法治、 正常運作的法庭、私有財產(chǎn)權(quán) 很明顯都是促進創(chuàng)新的有力工具。

【86】You already know what markets do best.

你們都知道市場擅長做些什么。

【87】They let people try stuff, they send strong signals when that stuff isn't working, and they have fueled an incredible arc of growth and poverty eradication.

它讓人們嘗試新事物, 如果新事物不對勁, 會發(fā)出明顯的信號, 還助力了蓬勃增長 和消除貧困。

【88】If we are to have optimism for a radically better world to continue this path that capitalism has put us on, we cannot let governments collaborate with business to wreck the engine of the market.

如果我們還對在這條資本主義 引領(lǐng)的道路上走向美好未來 抱有希望的話, 我們就不該讓政府與企業(yè)合作 抹除市場的作用。

【89】Weirdos trying stuff and sometimes being allowed to fail at it are our best hope as a species.

怪人嘗試新事物, 失敗也沒有關(guān)系, 這就是我們作為人類最大的希望。

【90】Thank you.

謝謝。

【91】(Cheers and applause)