American Economic Review 2023年第6期

Vol. 113 No. 6 June 2023

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——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

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Presidential Address: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years

總統(tǒng)演講:貨幣政策重要嗎?35年后的敘事方法

Christina D.?Romer?and?David H.?Romer

The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical Minutes and Transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024.

宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)識(shí)別的敘述方法使用定性來源，如報(bào)紙或政府記錄，來提供有助于建立因果關(guān)系的信息。本文以貨幣政策影響的新研究為重點(diǎn)，探討了嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)敘事分析的要求。我們閱讀了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策制定會(huì)議的歷史紀(jì)要和記錄，以確定1946年至2016年期間貨幣政策的重大收縮和擴(kuò)張變化，這些變化不是針對(duì)當(dāng)前或未來實(shí)際活動(dòng)的發(fā)展而采取的。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種貨幣沖擊在預(yù)期方向上對(duì)失業(yè)、產(chǎn)出和通脹產(chǎn)生了巨大而顯著的影響。對(duì)現(xiàn)有政策記錄的分析表明，2022年可能會(huì)發(fā)生一場(chǎng)緊縮性貨幣沖擊。根據(jù)對(duì)以往沖擊影響的實(shí)證估計(jì)，人們預(yù)計(jì)2023年和2024年實(shí)際GDP和通脹將受到重大負(fù)面影響。

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The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate

一個(gè)國(guó)家的誕生:媒體與種族仇恨

Desmond?Ang

This paper documents the impact of popular media on racial hate by examining the first American blockbuster: 1915's?The Birth of a Nation, a fictional portrayal of the KKK's founding rife with racist stereotypes. Exploiting the film's five-year "road show," I find a sharp spike in lynchings and race riots coinciding with its arrival in a county. Instrumenting for road show destinations using the location of theaters prior to the movie's release, I show that the film significantly increased local Klan support in the 1920s. Road show counties continue to experience higher rates of hate crimes and hate groups a century later.

本文通過研究美國(guó)第一部大片——1915年的《一個(gè)國(guó)家的誕生》，記錄了大眾媒體對(duì)種族仇恨的影響，這部電影虛構(gòu)地描繪了3k黨的成立過程，充斥著種族主義的刻板印象。利用這部電影五年的“路演”，我發(fā)現(xiàn)私刑和種族騷亂在它到達(dá)一個(gè)縣的時(shí)候急劇上升。我利用電影上映前的影院位置對(duì)路演目的地進(jìn)行了測(cè)量，結(jié)果表明，這部電影在20世紀(jì)20年代顯著增加了當(dāng)?shù)貙?duì)三k黨的支持。一個(gè)世紀(jì)后，路演縣繼續(xù)經(jīng)歷著更高的仇恨犯罪和仇恨團(tuán)體率。

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Reconciliation Narratives:?The Birth of a Nation?after the US Civil War?????????

和解敘事:美國(guó)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)后一個(gè)國(guó)家的誕生

Elena?Esposito,?Tiziano?Rotesi,?Alessandro?Saia?and?Mathias?Thoenig

We study how the spread of the Lost Cause narrative—a revisionist and racist retelling of the US Civil War—shifted opinions and behaviors toward national reunification and racial discrimination against African Americans. Looking at screenings of?The Birth of a Nation, a blockbuster movie that greatly popularized the Lost Cause after 1915, we find that the film shifted the public discourse toward a more patriotic and less divisive language, increased military enlistment, and fostered cultural convergence between former enemies. We document how the racist content of the narrative connects to reconciliation through a "common-enemy" type of argument.

我們研究了“失敗的原因”敘事(一種對(duì)美國(guó)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的修正主義和種族主義重述)的傳播如何改變了人們對(duì)國(guó)家統(tǒng)一和對(duì)非裔美國(guó)人的種族歧視的看法和行為?；仡櫋兑粋€(gè)國(guó)家的誕生》(The Birth of a Nation)的放映，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)這部電影將公共話語轉(zhuǎn)向了一種更愛國(guó)、更少分裂的語言，增加了軍事征兵，并促進(jìn)了昔日敵人之間的文化融合?！兑粋€(gè)國(guó)家的誕生》是一部轟動(dòng)一時(shí)的電影，在1915年之后極大地推廣了失敗的事業(yè)。我們記錄了敘事中的種族主義內(nèi)容是如何通過“共同敵人”類型的論點(diǎn)與和解聯(lián)系在一起的。

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Optimal Procurement with Quality Concerns

關(guān)注質(zhì)量的最優(yōu)采購(gòu)

Giuseppe?Lopomo,?Nicola?Persico?and?Alessandro T.?Villa

Adverse selection in procurement arises when low-cost bidders are also low-quality suppliers. We propose a mechanism called LoLA (lowball lottery auction) which, under some conditions, maximizes any combination of buyer's and social surplus, subject to incentive compatibility, in the presence of adverse selection. The LoLA features a floor price, and a reserve price. The LoLA has a dominant strategy equilibrium that, under mild conditions, is unique. In a counterfactual analysis of Italian government auctions, we compute the gain that the government could have made, had it used the optimal procurement mechanism (a LoLA), relative to a first-price auction (the adopted format).

當(dāng)?shù)统杀就稑?biāo)人同時(shí)也是低質(zhì)量供應(yīng)商時(shí)，采購(gòu)中的逆向選擇就出現(xiàn)了。我們提出了一種稱為LoLA(低球彩票拍賣)的機(jī)制，在某些條件下，在存在逆向選擇的情況下，受激勵(lì)兼容性的約束，最大化買方和社會(huì)剩余的任何組合。LoLA的特點(diǎn)是底價(jià)和保留價(jià)。LoLA具有優(yōu)勢(shì)策略均衡，在溫和條件下是唯一的。在對(duì)意大利政府拍賣的反事實(shí)分析中，我們計(jì)算了相對(duì)于首價(jià)拍賣(采用的形式)，如果政府使用最優(yōu)采購(gòu)機(jī)制(LoLA)，它可能獲得的收益。

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Optimal Contracting with Altruistic Agents: Medicare Payments for Dialysis Drugs

利他主體的最優(yōu)契約:透析藥物的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)支付

Martin?Gaynor,?Nirav?Mehta?and?Seth?Richards-Shubik

We study health-care provider agency and optimal payments, considering an expensive medication for dialysis patients. Using Medicare claims data we estimate a structural model of treatment decisions, in which providers differ in their altruism and marginal costs, and this heterogeneity is unobservable to the government. In a novel application of nonlinear pricing methods, we empirically characterize the optimal contracts in this environment. The optimal contracts eliminate medically excessive dosages and reduce expenditures, resulting in approximately $300 million in annual gains from better contracting. This approach could be applied to a broad class of problems in healthcare payment policy.

我們研究醫(yī)療服務(wù)提供者代理和最優(yōu)支付，考慮到昂貴的藥物透析患者。利用醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)索賠數(shù)據(jù)，我們估計(jì)了治療決策的結(jié)構(gòu)模型，其中提供者在利他主義和邊際成本方面存在差異，而這種異質(zhì)性對(duì)政府來說是不可觀察的。在非線性定價(jià)方法的新應(yīng)用中，我們經(jīng)驗(yàn)地描述了這種環(huán)境下的最優(yōu)契約。最佳合同消除了醫(yī)療上的過量劑量并減少了支出，通過改進(jìn)合同每年可獲得約3億美元的收益。這種方法可以應(yīng)用于醫(yī)療保健支付政策中的廣泛?jiǎn)栴}。

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The Common-Probability Auction Puzzle

共概率拍賣謎題

M. Kathleen?Ngangoué?and?Andrew?Schotter

This paper presents a puzzle in the behavior of experimental subjects in what we call common-probability auctions. In common-value auctions, uncertainty is defined over values, while in common-probability auctions, uncertainty is defined over probabilities. We find that in contrast to the substantial overbidding found in common-value auctions, bidding in strategically equivalent common-probability auctions is consistent with Nash equilibrium. To explain our results, we run treatments to identify whether this difference stems from the way subjects estimate the good's value in a competitive environment rather than the way they bid conditional on these valuations. We conclude it is the former.

本文提出了在我們稱之為共概率拍賣的實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)象的行為中的一個(gè)難題。在共同價(jià)值拍賣中，不確定性定義在價(jià)值之上，而在共同概率拍賣中，不確定性定義在概率之上。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與共同價(jià)值拍賣中存在的大量超額競(jìng)價(jià)不同，戰(zhàn)略等價(jià)共同概率拍賣中的競(jìng)價(jià)符合納什均衡。為了解釋我們的結(jié)果，我們進(jìn)行了處理，以確定這種差異是否源于受試者在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境中估計(jì)商品價(jià)值的方式，而不是他們以這些估值為條件的出價(jià)方式。我們的結(jié)論是前者。

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When Losses Turn into Loans: The Cost of Weak Banks

當(dāng)虧損轉(zhuǎn)化為貸款:弱勢(shì)銀行的成本

Laura?Blattner,?Luisa?Farinha?and?Francisca?Rebelo

We provide evidence that banks distort the composition of credit supply in order to comply with ratio-based capital requirements in times of economic distress. An unexpected intervention by the European Banking Authority provides a natural experiment to study how banks respond to falling below minimum required capital ratios during an economic downturn. We show that affected banks respond by cutting lending but also by reallocating credit to distressed firms with underreported loan losses. We develop a method to detect underreported losses using loan-level data. The credit reallocation leads to a reallocation of inputs across firms. We calculate that the resulting increase in input misallocation accounts for about 22 percent of the decline in productivity in Portugal in 2012.

我們提供的證據(jù)表明，在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難時(shí)期，銀行扭曲了信貸供應(yīng)的構(gòu)成，以符合基于比率的資本要求。歐洲銀行管理局(European Banking Authority)出人意料的干預(yù)，為研究銀行在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期資本金比率低于最低要求時(shí)的反應(yīng)提供了一個(gè)自然的實(shí)驗(yàn)。我們表明，受影響的銀行的反應(yīng)是削減貸款，但也會(huì)將信貸重新分配給那些貸款損失被低估的陷入困境的公司。我們開發(fā)了一種方法來檢測(cè)漏報(bào)的損失使用貸款水平的數(shù)據(jù)。信貸再分配導(dǎo)致了企業(yè)間投入的再分配。根據(jù)我們的計(jì)算，由此導(dǎo)致的投入錯(cuò)配的增加約占2012年葡萄牙生產(chǎn)力下降的22%。

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Occupational Exposure to Capital-Embodied Technical Change

資本內(nèi)含技術(shù)變革的職業(yè)暴露

Julieta?Caunedo,?David?Jaume?and?Elisa?Keller

We study differences in exposure to factor-biased technical change among occupations by providing the first measures of capital-embodied technical change (CETC) and of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor at the occupational level. We document sizable occupational heterogeneity in both measures, but quantitatively, it is the heterogeneity in factor substitutability that fuels workers' exposure to CETC. In a general equilibrium model of worker sorting across occupations, CETC accounts for almost all of the observed labor reallocation in the US between 1984 and 2015. Absent occupational heterogeneity in factor substitutability, CETC accounts for only 17 percent of it.

我們通過提供資本體現(xiàn)的技術(shù)變革(CETC)和職業(yè)層面資本與勞動(dòng)力之間替代彈性的第一個(gè)度量，研究了不同職業(yè)之間暴露于因素偏倚技術(shù)變革的差異。我們?cè)趦煞N測(cè)量方法中都記錄了相當(dāng)大的職業(yè)異質(zhì)性，但在數(shù)量上，是因素可替代性的異質(zhì)性促使工人暴露于CETC。在一個(gè)工人跨職業(yè)分類的一般均衡模型中，CETC幾乎解釋了1984年至2015年間美國(guó)觀察到的所有勞動(dòng)力再分配。在要素可替代性中不存在職業(yè)異質(zhì)性，CETC僅占17%。