Turning inward

Why the old development strategy of import substitution has gained a new lease of life

FOR THE past quarter-century, growth came so easily to the developing world that it can be hard to remember it was ever otherwise. Fuelled?by globalisation, real GDP per person in emerging economiesmore than doubled from 1995 to 2019, in purchasing-power-parity terms. In advanced countries, by contrast, it grew by only 44%. The burst of growth consigned to the?scrapheap?decades’ worth of arguments about whether and how poor countries could catch up with rich ones.?But explosive trade growth has ended, and the industrialised world is turning inward. Some governments are therefore dusting off?old ideas. Among them is “import-substituting industrialisation” (ISI),?a strategy that seeks to develop industrial capacity by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition.Many countries may feel they have little choice but to give the idea a try, but as the conditions that might allow it to succeed are generally absent in the poorest of economies, the revival seems doomed to fail.

emerging economy：新型經(jīng)濟(jì)體

purchasing-power-parity?（PPP）購買力平價：是根據(jù)各國不同的價格水平計算出來的貨幣之間的等值系數(shù)。

?Scrapheap??/?skr?phi?p/ n. 廢物堆，廢料堆

doom ?/du?m/ ?名詞：死亡；毀滅；厄運；劫數(shù)??to meet your doom 死亡

動詞：~ sb/sth (to sth) 使…注定失?。ɑ蛟庋?、死亡等）?The plan was doomed to failure . 這個計劃注定要失敗。

習(xí)語：1. ?doom and ?gloom /gloom and ?doom悲觀失望；無望；前景暗淡??Despite the obvious setbacks, it is not all doom and gloom for the England team. 盡管明顯受挫，但對英格蘭隊來說絕非勝利無望。2. ?prophet of ?doom /doom merchant末日預(yù)言者

Between 1990 and 2008, global trade as a share of GDP rose from 39% to 61%. This “hyperglobalisation”, as Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics?dubbed?it, facilitated?rapid, broad-based economic expansion. After the late 1990s growth in incomes per head in nearly three-quarters of developing countries outpaced that in America, by an average of more than three percentage points a year. Global supply chains proliferated. Countries with a small industrial base, or none at all, could export manufactured goods by finding niches in production chains, following a shortcut to industrialisation.

Peterson Institute for International Economics：彼得森國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所

dub ?/d?b/??1.把…戲稱為；給…起綽號?The Belgian actor Jean Claude Van Damme has been dubbed ‘Muscles from Brussels’. 比利時演員讓?克勞德?范?達(dá)默被戲稱為“布魯塞爾的肌肉”。2. ~ sth (into sth)為（影片或電視節(jié)目）配音；譯制?an American movie dubbed into Italian 用意大利語配音的美國影片??3.混聲錄制，混錄（音樂）

facilitate ?v. /f??s?l?te?t/ ?促進(jìn)；促使；使便利

broad-based 有廣泛基礎(chǔ)的；無限制的

Proliferate??v. /pr??l?f?re?t/ ?迅速繁殖（或增殖）；猛增

Outplace ?v. 安排新工作；取代；擠出；（網(wǎng)球比賽中）投球超越

Shortcut ?n. 捷徑；被切短的東西

The era of openness, however, is drawing to a close. The share of trade in world GDP fell after the global financial crisis; last year it was still below its 2008 peak. The level of world trade is forecast to fall by more than 9% this year. In America and Europe shortages of medical supplies and a souring relationship with China have?rekindled?interest in protecting domestic producers. But it is the biggest winners of hyperglobalisation, such as China and India, that are leading the way back to ISI. The share of foreign value-added in China’s exports fell by almost ten percentage points from 2005 to 2016; its government’s “Made in China 2025” campaign aims to make it self-sufficient in the production of many key goods. ?In India, Narendra Modi, the prime minister, unveiled?a campaign for self-reliance as part of his pandemic-recovery package in May.

rekindle ?v. /?ri??k?ndl/ ??使重新活躍；使復(fù)蘇

Unveil??Vt. /??n?ve?l/ ?

1.為…揭幕；揭開…上的覆蓋物；拉開…的帷幔??The Queen unveiled a plaque to mark the official opening of the hospital. 女王主持揭幕式，標(biāo)志著醫(yī)院正式啟用。

2.（首次）展示，介紹，推出；將…公之于眾??They will be unveiling their new models at the Motor Show. 他們將在汽車大展上首次推出自己的新型汽車。

譯文

FOR THE past quarter-century, growth came so easily to the developing world that it can be hard to remember it was ever otherwise. Fuelled?by globalisation, real GDP per person in emerging economies more than doubled from 1995 to 2019, in purchasing-power-parity terms. In advanced countries, by contrast, it grew by only 44%. The burst of growth consigned to the?scrapheap?decades’ worth of arguments about whether and how poor countries could catch up with rich ones.

在過去的25年中，發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速成長，以至于他們幾乎難以記起以前情況并非如此。受經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化刺激，從購買力平價指數(shù)來看，1995年到2019年，新型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的人均真實GDP翻了一倍不止。相較之下，發(fā)達(dá)國家只增長44%。猛烈的增長使得幾十年來關(guān)于窮國能否及如何趕上富國的爭論意義歸于零。但現(xiàn)在爆炸式國際貿(mào)易結(jié)束，工業(yè)化國家開始轉(zhuǎn)向內(nèi)向驅(qū)動。

But explosive trade growth has ended, and the industrialised world is turning inward. Some governments are therefore dusting off?old ideas. Among them is “import-substituting industrialisation” (ISI),?a strategy that seeks to develop industrial capacity by shielding domestic producers from foreign competition.Many countries may feel they have little choice but to give the idea a try, but as the conditions that might allow it to succeed are generally absent in the poorest of economies, the revival seems doomed to fail.

一些國家因此重新拿起“舊思想”?。其中一個是“替代進(jìn)口工業(yè)化”（ISI），其策略是通過保護(hù)本國制造商免于外國競爭，以提高工業(yè)能力。很多國家感覺自身別無他法，只能求一線生機。但成功的前置條件似乎在一些極度貧窮的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中缺席，這些嘗試注定失敗。

Between 1990 and 2008, global trade as a share of GDP rose from 39% to 61%. This “hyperglobalisation”, as Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics?dubbed?it, facilitated?rapid, broad-based economic expansion. After the late 1990s growth in incomes per head in nearly three-quarters of developing countries outpaced that in America, by an average of more than three percentage points a year. Global supply chains proliferated. Countries with a small industrial base, or none at all, could export manufactured goods by finding niches in production chains, following a shortcut to industrialisation.

1990-2008年之間，全球貿(mào)易占GDP的比例從39%增至61%。彼得森國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所的Martin Kessler 和 Arvind Subramanian 將之稱為“超高全球化”，90年之后，75%的發(fā)展中國家人均收入增長水平增速以一年平均超過3個百分點的速度超過美國。全球供應(yīng)鏈擴增。一個國家只參與一小塊工業(yè)活動或者根本沒有，也可以通過產(chǎn)品鏈上面的合適位置出口制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品，沿捷徑通往工業(yè)化。

The era of openness, however, is drawing to a close. The share of trade in world GDP fell after the global financial crisis; last year it was still below its 2008 peak. The level of world trade is forecast to fall by more than 9% this year. In America and Europe shortages of medical supplies and a souring relationship with China have?rekindled?interest in protecting domestic producers. But it is the biggest winners of hyperglobalisation, such as China and India, that are leading the way back to ISI. The share of foreign value-added in China’s exports fell by almost ten percentage points from 2005 to 2016; its government’s “Made in China 2025” campaign aims to make it self-sufficient in the production of many key goods. ?In India, Narendra Modi, the prime minister, unveiled?a campaign for self-reliance as part of his pandemic-recovery package in May.

然而，開放時代正在降下帷幕。國際貿(mào)易占全球GDP比重在金融危機之后下跌，去年依舊沒有達(dá)到2008年高峰。今年預(yù)測全球貿(mào)易水平下降幅度超過9%。歐美國家醫(yī)療物資的短缺和與中國關(guān)系的變差，使其保護(hù)國內(nèi)制造業(yè)意愿復(fù)燃。然而是超高全球化的最大贏家們，比如中國、印度，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)著“替代進(jìn)口制造業(yè)”回到巔峰。從2005年到2016年，中國出口產(chǎn)品的國外增值份額下降了近10個百分點；中國政府的“中國制造2025”計劃旨在使中國在許多關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)上實現(xiàn)自給自足。在印度，五月份莫迪首相公開了“自給自足運動”作為新冠疫情大流行經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)計劃的一部分。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人12月刊