Could the world really avoid a recession?

Markets are giddy, but there is a long way to go

giddy：令人輕飄飄的；眩暈的

Last year markets had a terrible time. So far 2023 looks different. Many indices, including the Euro Stoxx 600, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and a broad measure of emerging-market share prices, have seen their best start to the year in decades. America’s s&p 500 is up by 5%. Since reaching its peak in October, the trade-weighted value of the dollar has fallen by 7%, a sign that fear about the global economy is ebbing. Even bitcoin has had a good year. Not long ago it felt as though a global recession was nailed on. Now optimism is re-emerging.

去年市場經(jīng)歷了一段糟糕的時期。到目前為止，2023 年看起來不同。許多指數(shù)，包括歐洲斯托克 600 指數(shù)、香港恒生指數(shù)和衡量新興市場股價的一個廣泛指標(biāo)，都出現(xiàn)了數(shù)十年來最好的開局。美國標(biāo)準普爾 500 指數(shù)上漲了 5%。自 10 月份達到頂峰以來，美元的貿(mào)易加權(quán)價值已經(jīng)下跌了 7%，這表明對全球經(jīng)濟的擔(dān)憂正在消退。就連比特幣也有了好年景。就在不久前，全球經(jīng)濟衰退似乎已經(jīng)板上釘釘?，F(xiàn)在樂觀情緒正在重新出現(xiàn)。

ebb：When the sea or tide ebbs, it moves away from the coast and falls to a lower level. 落潮，退潮

be nailed on：板上釘釘；命中注定

“Hello lower gas prices, bye-bye recession,” cheered analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, on January 18th, in a report on the euro zone. Nomura, a bank, has revised its forecast of Britain’s forthcoming recession “to something less pernicious than what we originally expected”. Citigroup, another bank, said that “the probability of a full-blown global recession, in which growth in many countries turns down in tandem, is now roughly 30% in contrast with the 50% assessment that we maintained through the second half of last year.” These are crumbs: the world economy is weaker than at any point since the lockdowns of 2020. But investors will eat anything.

1 月 18 日，在一份關(guān)于歐元區(qū)的報告中，摩根大通銀行的分析師們歡呼道：“你好，油價下跌，經(jīng)濟衰退拜拜。”野村銀行已經(jīng)將其對英國即將到來的經(jīng)濟衰退的預(yù)測修正為“比我們最初預(yù)期的危害要小”。另一家銀行花旗集團（Citigroup）表示：“全球經(jīng)濟衰退全面爆發(fā)的可能性（許多國家的增長率同時下降）現(xiàn)在大約為30%，（與之形成對比的是）我們在去年下半年一直保持的50%的估計。“這些是面包屑：世界經(jīng)濟比2020年封鎖以來的任何時候都要疲軟。但投資者什么都吃。

Forecasters are in part responding to real-time economic data. Despite talk of a global recession since at least last February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, these data have held up better than expected. Consider a weekly estimate of gdp from the oecd, a group of mostly rich countries which account for about 60% of global output. It is hardly booming, but in mid-January few countries were struggling. Widely watched “purchasing-manager index” measures of global output rose slightly in January, consistent with gdp growth of about 2%.

預(yù)測者在一定程度上是對實時經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)做出反應(yīng)。盡管至少自去年 2 月俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，人們一直在談?wù)撊蚪?jīng)濟衰退，但這些數(shù)據(jù)的表現(xiàn)好于預(yù)期?？紤]一下經(jīng)合組織每周對 gdp 的估計，經(jīng)合組織主要由富裕國家組成，占全球產(chǎn)出的 60%左右。它幾乎沒有蓬勃發(fā)展，但在一月中旬，幾乎沒有國家在苦苦掙扎（見表 1）。廣受關(guān)注的衡量全球產(chǎn)出的“采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)”在一月份略有上升，與 gdp 增長 2%左右相一致。

Official numbers remain a mixed bag. Recent figures on American retail sales came in below expectations. Meanwhile, in Japan machinery orders were far weaker than forecast. Yet after reaching an all-time low in the summer, consumer confidence across the oecd has risen. Officials are due to publish their first estimate of America’s gdp growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 on January 26th. Most economists are expecting a decent number, though pandemic disruptions mean these figures will be less reliable than normal.

官方數(shù)據(jù)仍然好壞參半。最近美國零售業(yè)的數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期。與此同時，日本的機械訂單遠低于預(yù)期。然而，在今年夏天達到歷史最低點之后，經(jīng)合組織各國的消費者信心已經(jīng)有所回升。官員們將于 1 月 26 日公布他們對美國 2022 年第四季度 gdp 增長的首次估計。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)計會有一個不錯的數(shù)字，盡管大流行的中斷意味著這些數(shù)字將比正常情況下更不可靠。

a mixed bag：魚龍混雜；好壞參辦

Labour markets seem to be holding up, too. In some rich countries, including Austria and Denmark, joblessness is rising—a tell-tale sign that a recession is looming. Barely a day goes by without an announcement from another big technology firm that it is letting people go. Yet tech accounts for a small share of overall jobs, and in most countries unemployment remains low. Happily, employers across the oecd are expressing their falling demand for labour largely by withdrawing job adverts, rather than sacking people. We estimate that, since reaching an all-time high of more than 30m early last year, unfilled vacancies have fallen by about 10%. The number of people actually in a job has fallen by less than 1% from its peak.

勞動力市場似乎也在保持增長。在一些發(fā)達國家，包括奧地利和丹麥，失業(yè)率正在上升，這是經(jīng)濟衰退即將來臨的一個明顯跡象。幾乎每天都有另一家大型科技公司宣布裁員。然而，科技行業(yè)只占整體就業(yè)崗位的一小部分，而且大多數(shù)國家的失業(yè)率仍然很低。令人高興的是，經(jīng)合組織的雇主們大多通過撤下招聘廣告而不是裁員來表達他們對勞動力需求的下降。我們估計，自去年初達到 3000 多萬的歷史最高水平以來，未填補的空缺職位已經(jīng)下降了大約 10%。實際從事某項工作的人數(shù)從高峰時期下降了不到 1%。

Investors pay attention to labour markets, but what they really care about right now is inflation. It is too soon to know if the threat has passed. In the rich world “core” inflation, a measure of underlying pressure, is still 5-6% year on year, far higher than central banks would like. The problem, though, is no longer getting worse. In America core inflation is dropping, as is the share of small firms which plan to raise prices. Another data set, from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Morning Consult, a data firm, and Raphael Schoenle of Brandeis University, is a cross-country gauge of public inflation expectations. It also seems to be falling.

投資者關(guān)注勞動力市場，但他們現(xiàn)在真正關(guān)心的是通脹。現(xiàn)在判斷威脅是否已經(jīng)過去還為時過早。在發(fā)達國家，“核心”通貨膨脹，一種潛在壓力的衡量標(biāo)準，仍然是每年 5-6%，遠遠高于中央銀行所希望的。不過，問題并沒有變得更糟。在美國，核心通貨膨脹率正在下降，計劃提價的小公司的份額也在下降。另一組數(shù)據(jù)來自克利夫蘭聯(lián)邦儲備銀行、數(shù)據(jù)公司 Morning Consult 和布蘭代斯大學(xué)的 Raphael Schoenle 的研究人員，這是一個衡量公眾通脹預(yù)期的跨國指標(biāo)。它似乎也在下降。

Two factors explain why the global economy is holding up: energy prices and private-sector finances. Last year the cost of fuel in the rich world rose by well over 20%—and by 60% or more in parts of Europe. Economists expected prices to remain high in 2023, crushing energy-intensive sectors such as heavy industry. On both counts they were wrong. Helped by unseasonably warm weather, companies have proven unexpectedly flexible when it comes to dealing with high costs. In November German industrial gas consumption was 27% lower than normal, yet industrial production was only 0.5% down on the year before. And over the Christmas period European natural-gas prices have fallen by half to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine.

兩個因素解釋了全球經(jīng)濟為何能夠保持堅挺：能源價格和私營部門的財務(wù)狀況。去年，發(fā)達國家的燃料價格上漲了 20%以上，歐洲部分地區(qū)上漲了 60%甚至更多。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)計，2023 年物價將維持高位，重工業(yè)等能源密集型行業(yè)將受到擠壓。在這兩點上，他們都錯了。在反常的溫暖天氣的幫助下，企業(yè)在應(yīng)對高成本方面表現(xiàn)出了出人意料的靈活性。11 月德國工業(yè)天然氣消費量比正常水平低 27%，但工業(yè)生產(chǎn)僅比上年同期下降 0.5%。圣誕節(jié)期間，歐洲天然氣價格下降了一半，降至俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭前的水平。

The strength of private-sector finances has also made a difference. Our best guess is that families in the g7 are still sitting on “excess” savings—ie, those above and beyond what you would expect them to have accumulated in normal times—of around $3trn (or about 10% of annual consumer spending), accumulated via a combination of pandemic stimulus and lower outlays in 2020-21. As a result their spending today is resilient. They can weather higher prices and a higher cost of credit. Businesses, meanwhile, are still sitting on large cash piles. And few face large debt repayments right now: 600bn of dollar-denominated corporate debt will mature this year, compared with $900bn due in 2025.

私營部門的金融實力也起到了作用。我們最好的猜測是，七國集團的家庭仍然坐擁“超額”儲蓄，即那些超出你預(yù)期的他們在正常時期積累的儲蓄，大約 3 萬億美元（或約占年度消費支出的 10%），這些儲蓄是通過 2020-21 年流行病刺激和較低支出的組合積累起來的。因此，他們今天的支出具有彈性。他們能夠承受更高的價格和更高的信貸成本。與此同時，企業(yè)仍坐擁大量現(xiàn)金?，F(xiàn)在幾乎沒有人面臨巨額債務(wù)償還：今年將有 6000 億美元的美元計價企業(yè)債務(wù)到期，而 2025 年將有 9000 億美元到期。

Weather：vt.經(jīng)受??；使風(fēng)化；侵蝕；使受風(fēng)吹雨打

Can the data continue to beat expectations? There is some evidence, including in a recent paper by Goldman Sachs, a bank, that the heaviest drag on economic growth from tighter monetary policy occurs after about nine months. Global financial conditions started seriously tightening about nine months ago. If the theory holds, then before long the economy might be on surer footing again, even as higher rates start to eat away at inflation. China is another reason to be optimistic. They will ultimately raise demand for goods and services globally. Forecasters also expect the warm weather in much of Europe to continue.

數(shù)據(jù)能否繼續(xù)超預(yù)期？有一些證據(jù)，包括高盛銀行最近的一份報告，表明緊縮貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟增長的最大拖累發(fā)生在大約 9 個月之后。全球金融狀況在大約 9 個月前開始嚴重收緊。如果這一理論成立，那么用不了多久，經(jīng)濟可能會再次站穩(wěn)腳跟，即使更高的利率開始侵蝕通脹。中國是另一個值得樂觀的理由。中國將提高全球?qū)ι唐泛头?wù)的需求。氣象預(yù)報員還預(yù)計歐洲大部分地區(qū)的溫暖天氣將持續(xù)下去。

The pessimistic case, however, remains strong. Central banks have a long way to go before they can be sure inflation is under control, especially with China’s reopening pushing up commodity prices. In addition, an economy on the cusp of recession is unpredictable. Once people start losing their jobs, and cutting back on spending, predicting the depths of a downturn becomes impossible. And a crucial lesson from recent years is that if something can go wrong, it often does. But it is nice to have a glimmer of hope all the same.

然而，悲觀的理由仍然很充分。各國央行要確信通脹得到控制還有很長的路要走，尤其是在中國重新開放推高大宗商品價格的情況下。此外，處于衰退邊緣的經(jīng)濟是不可預(yù)測的。一旦人們開始失業(yè)，削減開支，預(yù)測經(jīng)濟衰退的深度就變得不可能了。近幾年來的一個重要教訓(xùn)是，如果有什么事情可能出錯，它往往會出錯。但還是有一線希望是很好的。

on the cusp of：在風(fēng)口浪尖上；炙手可熱