As disruptions to Russian gas, French nuclear power and Norwegian hydroelectricitywreak havocin Europe’s energy markets, prices are verging on the surreal. Benchmark natural-gas prices surged by 30% last week. Last summer French and German year-ahead contracts for electricity traded at around €100 ($118) per megawatt hour. Recently they rose above €1,000. Prices have fallen since, but gas still trades at the equivalent of around $400 for a barrel of oil. Shell’s boss has warned that the crisis will last more than one winter.

隨著俄羅斯天然氣、法國核電和挪威水力發(fā)電的中斷對歐洲能源市場造成嚴重破壞，價格正接近超現(xiàn)實水平。上周，基準天然氣價格飆升了30%。去年夏天，法國和德國的年度電力合同交易價格約為每兆瓦時100歐元(合118美元)。最近，交易價格漲到了1000歐元以上。自那以來，天然氣價格有所下降，但其價格仍相當于每桶石油400美元左右的價格。殼牌的老板警告說，這場危機將持續(xù)不止一個冬天。

The pain will be savage and will spread as households’ and firms’ existing energy contracts expire and new ones are struck. That will intensify the squeeze on the economy that is under way as the European Central Bank raises interest rates to combat inflation. Many economists predict a recession in the next few months, and the single currency is flirting with its lowest level against the dollar in two decades. The prospect of unrest and squabbles among member states looms ahead.

隨著家庭和公司現(xiàn)有的能源合同到期和新合同的簽訂，這種痛苦將是殘酷的，并將蔓延開來。隨著歐洲央行提高利率以對抗通脹，這將加劇對經(jīng)濟的擠壓。許多經(jīng)濟學家預測未來幾個月將出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退，而歐元兌美元匯率正徘徊在20年來的最低水平。成員國之間動蕩和爭吵的前景迫在眉睫。

So far the European Commission’s response has not been ambitious enough. Its latest idea is a cap on the price of gas used to generate electricity, which will be discussed at a summit of ministers on September 9th. The commission may also seek to overhaul the power market, so that spot prices are no longer set by the costs of the marginal producer, which is often gas-fired.

到目前為止，歐盟委員會的反應還不夠雄心勃勃。它的最新想法是對用于發(fā)電的天然氣價格設置上限，這將在9月9日召開的能源部長峰會上討論。委員會還可能尋求對電力市場進行全面改革，使現(xiàn)貨價格不再由邊際生產(chǎn)商(通常是燃氣生產(chǎn)商)的成本決定。

Capping prices sounds neat but could be counterproductive. That is because the ceilings will not curb demand for scarce energy. According to one study, a cap implemented in Spain has led to a 42% increase in gas-fuelled generation since June. An eu-wide policy would only increase the demand for gas further still, raising the chances of rationing in the winter. It is true that the current set-up allows some renewable-energy firms, which produce at close to zero marginal cost, to rake in profits. If gas prices were to stay high for years such windfalls could be described as unjustified rents. But that same price signal ensures that gas-fired plants generate power when the wind doesn’t blow, and incentivises more investment in renewables.

設置價格上限聽起來很好，但可能適得其反。這是因為上限無法抑制對稀缺能源的需求。根據(jù)一項研究，自6月以來，西班牙實施的上限已經(jīng)導致天然氣發(fā)電增加了42%。一項全歐盟范圍的政策只會進一步增加對天然氣的需求，增加冬季定量配給的可能性。的確，當前的制度使得一些邊際成本接近于零的可再生能源公司獲得了豐厚的利潤。如果天然氣價格持續(xù)多年居高不下，這種意外之財可以被稱為不合理的租金。但同樣的價格信號確保了燃氣發(fā)電廠在沒有風的時候發(fā)電，并激勵了對可再生能源的更多投資。

Rather than tinkering, governments should focus on two bigger tasks.The first is toallow the market mechanism to curb demand, while supporting the most vulnerable people. Large handouts will be needed, but targeted assistance can limit the bill: according to the imf, policies that offer rebates and cash transfers to the poorest 40% of people would be cheaper than the policy mix today, which largely includes tax cuts on fuel, or retail-price caps.

各國政府應該把注意力放在兩項更大的任務上，而不是去擺弄價格。首先是允許市場機制抑制需求，同時支持最弱勢群體。大量的援助是必要的，但有針對性的援助可以限制開支：根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織的說法，向最貧困的40%人口提供返款和現(xiàn)金轉移的政策將比目前的政策組合更便宜，目前政策組合主要包括燃料減稅，或零售價格上限。

The second priority is toincrease supply, something that is not solely in Vladimir Putin’s gift. Other sources of natural gas can be cultivated: this is one reason why France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has just visited Algeria. Within Europe, countries can help ease bottlenecks, such as inadequate cross-border gas interconnections. Today insufficient investment and differences in standards impede the flow from Spain and France to Germany and eastern Europe. The eu needs to ensure that in the event of rationing, there is a continent-wide agreement about which users are cut off first: without this the danger is that countries will hoard supplies.

第二要務是增加供應，弗拉基米爾?普京并非是唯一提供者。其他天然氣來源也可以開發(fā)：這也是法國總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍剛剛訪問阿爾及利亞的原因之一。在歐洲內(nèi)部，各國可以幫助緩解瓶頸，比如跨境天然氣互連不足的問題。如今，投資不足和標準差異阻礙了從西班牙和法國到德國和東歐的流動。歐盟需要確保在配給的情況下，就首先切斷哪些用戶達成一項全歐洲大陸范圍的協(xié)議：如果沒有這個協(xié)議，各國就會囤積供應。

All this will cost money. So far Greece, Italy and Spain, among the euro zone’s most indebted members, have spent 2-4% of their gdp on fiscal handouts to cushion the energy shock. Fortunately, the eu has the firepower to help. Its €807bn pandemic recovery fund is being doled out in the form of loans and grants. Yet so far less than 15% of the pot has been disbursed. Payments for energy projects could be accelerated and the commission could offer cheap loans to help fund targeted fiscal support. The eu came together to tackle the economic consequences of the pandemic lockdowns. Be under no illusions: the energy crisis requires a similarly bold response.

所有這些都要花錢。到目前為止，希臘、意大利和西班牙，這些歐元區(qū)負債最多的成員國，已經(jīng)將其GDP的2%-4%用于財政援助，以緩沖能源沖擊。幸運的是，歐盟有財力提供幫助。它的8070億歐元大流行恢復基金正以貸款和贈款的形式發(fā)放。然而到目前為止，只有不到15%的資金到位。能源項目的付款可能會加快，歐盟委員會可能會提供低息貸款，為有針對性的財政支持提供資金。歐盟聯(lián)合起來應對大流行封鎖帶來的經(jīng)濟后果。不要抱任何幻想：能源危機需要同樣大膽的回應。