TED演講者：Olivia Lazard / 奧莉薇亞?拉札德

演講標(biāo)題：The blind spots of the green energy transition / 綠色能源轉(zhuǎn)換的盲點(diǎn)

內(nèi)容概要：The world needs clean power, but decarbonization calls for a massive increase in the mining and extraction of minerals like lithium, graphite and cobalt. Environmental peacemaking expert Olivia Lazard sheds light on the scramble for these precious mineral resources -- and how the countries that control their supply chains (including China and Russia) could find themselves at the center of the new global stage. Learn why Lazard thinks planetary security depends on our ability to de...

世界需要干凈能源，但脫碳就會(huì)需要大量增加一些礦物的開采，比如鋰、石墨、鈷。環(huán)境調(diào)解專家奧莉薇亞?拉札德要來說明這些珍貴礦物資源的爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)——以及控制供應(yīng)鏈的國家（包括中國和俄羅斯）如何發(fā)現(xiàn)它們自己進(jìn)入了新全球舞臺(tái)的中心位置。來聽聽看為什么拉札德認(rèn)為地球安全要仰賴我們能否減緩資源競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以及避免重蹈導(dǎo)致氣候危機(jī)的覆轍。

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【1】Hi.

嗨。

【2】It's about as intimidating as I thought it would be.

站在這果然跟我想像的一樣可怕。

【3】(Laughter) And yet you’d think or I’d think that I'd be accustomed to more stressful situations.

（笑聲） 但,各位會(huì)認(rèn)為,或我自己會(huì)認(rèn)為, 我應(yīng)該很習(xí)慣有壓力的情境。

【4】You see, I work in international security and in conflict resolution.

因?yàn)槲业墓ぷ魇菄H安全和沖突解決。

【5】And today, I'm here to talk about some of our blind spots related to decarbonization.

今天,我要來談?wù)勎覀冇心男?和脫碳相關(guān)的盲點(diǎn)。

【6】Now, what does one have to do with the other, you may ask.

各位可能會(huì)問,兩者有什么關(guān)系？

【7】Good question.

好問題。

【8】We often hear that a climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

我們常常聽到,

【9】That's true.

是真的。

【10】We also often hear that renewables could be the energy of peace.

我們也常常聽到,再生能源 可能會(huì)是和平的能源。

【11】Less true.

沒那么真。

【12】To understand, I need to tell you about the materials that we need in order to decarbonize.

要了解這點(diǎn),我得告訴各位脫碳所需要的材料。

【13】They're pretty. And they can be deadly.

它們很漂亮,也可能很致命。

【14】Looking into their story tells us that confronting conflict and building new forms of international peace are going to be critical foundations to build a climate-safe future.

探究它們的故事 能告訴我們,正面面對(duì)沖突 以及建立新型態(tài)的國際和平, 對(duì)于打造氣候安全的未來, 會(huì)是很關(guān)鍵的基礎(chǔ)。

【15】So let me tell you about them, starting with where we stand now.

所以,我就來談?wù)勊鼈? 從我們的現(xiàn)況開始。

【16】When we talk about a decarbonized future, we generally have in mind the possibility of decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions.

當(dāng)我們談到脫碳的未來時(shí), 一般來說,我們會(huì)想到的是 有可能讓經(jīng)濟(jì)成長不再連結(jié)到 溫室氣體排放。

【17】That’s what we call “green growth.” What we tend to think about less often is that to get there we need to recouple economic growth with intensive mineral extraction.

那就是我們所謂的「綠色成長」。 我們通常比較少會(huì)去思考, 為了達(dá)成這個(gè)目標(biāo), 我們得讓經(jīng)濟(jì)成長重新連結(jié)上

【18】To harness renewables or renewable energy like the sun and the wind, we obviously need to build technologies such as solar panels, windmills, batteries, right?

若要利用可再生能源, 如太陽和風(fēng)力, 很明顯我們會(huì)需要建造 一些技術(shù),如太陽能板、 風(fēng)車、電池,對(duì)吧？

【19】And to build those, we need to mine huge quantities of non-renewable materials such as these.

要建造它們, 我們需要開采大量的非可再生物質(zhì),如這些。

【20】Knowing that it takes mines as big as these to produce that much amount of usable material.

要知道,要像這么大的礦山 才能產(chǎn)生出足量的可用材料。

【21】Our ticket to green growth, in other words, is digging deep in the environment.

換言之,我們通往綠色成長的門票, 就是消耗更多環(huán)境資源。

【22】Now we know that mining can have grave impacts for local ecosystems and populations.

我們知道采礦對(duì)于當(dāng)?shù)氐纳鷳B(tài)系統(tǒng) 和居民會(huì)有重大的沖擊。

【23】I’ve seen it myself, and it really isn’t pretty.

我親眼見過,真是慘不忍睹。

【24】But what I want to talk about today is about how much and where we’re going to have to dig, and what that means for planetary security and for geopolitics.

但,今天我想談的, 是我們必須要挖多少、挖什么地方, 以及那對(duì)于地球的安全 及地緣政治有什么意涵。

【25】I'll start from there.

我就從這里說起。

【26】History tells us that when the dominant source of energy changes, power relations change as well.

歷史告訴我們,當(dāng)能源的 主要來源改變時(shí), 權(quán)力關(guān)系也會(huì)改變。

【27】Countries that can transform energy to their own advantage, can gain the upper hand economically and politically, and then can put themselves at the center of the global order.

能將能源轉(zhuǎn)換成自身優(yōu)勢(shì)的國家 在經(jīng)濟(jì)上和政治上都能占上風(fēng), 并能讓自己成為全球秩序的中心。

【28】Think of the United Kingdom and coal, for instance, or how oil determined the ascendance of the US to a global superpower.

比如,可以想想看英國和煤, 或者石油如何讓美國登上 全球超級(jí)強(qiáng)權(quán)的位子。

【29】What that tells us is that the access to and processing of energy literally materializes into the ability to shape geopolitical power dynamics.

那告訴我們,能夠取得和擁有能源, 就等同于有能力可以形塑

【30】And today, we're facing the challenge of implementing the biggest energy transition in the history of humankind under a ticking climate clock.

現(xiàn)今, 我們面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是, 在氣候危機(jī)的時(shí)間壓力下 進(jìn)行人類史上最重大的能源轉(zhuǎn)換。

【31】The race is on for a new generation of power.

新世代權(quán)力的角力賽已經(jīng)展開。

【32】At the heart of which you have all of the critical materials that we need to decarbonize on the one hand and digitalize on the other.

這場(chǎng)角力賽的核心, 就是要邊脫碳邊數(shù)位化 所需要的重要資源。

【33】So what's happening with them?

所以這些資源的狀況如何？

【34】On the demand side we're at the beginning of an exponential demand curve.

在需求面上,我們正處在急速成長的開端。

【35】If you take lithium as a proxy, a key component for [batteries], global production already increased by just short of 300 percent between 2010 and 2020.

拿鋰作例子,它是電池的關(guān)鍵元素, 從 2010 年到 2020 年, 鋰的全球產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)增加了近 300%,

【36】I'm going to pause here for a sec.

我要在這里停一下。

【37】This is really good news.

這是很好的消息。

【38】It means that decarbonization is in motion.

這表示脫碳已經(jīng)開始進(jìn)行了。

【39】The not so good news is that our "clean" future is going to be more materially intensive than before.

不太好的消息則是, 我們的「干凈」未來, 材料密集的程度會(huì)更甚以往。

【40】If you take a simple measure for it, the International Energy Agency tells us that with the current level of innovation, an electric car requires six times more mineral inputs than a conventional car.

用個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的方式衡量, 國際能源署告訴我們, 依目前的創(chuàng)新度, 電動(dòng)車所需要投入的礦物 比傳統(tǒng)汽車多六倍。

【41】And this is only the start.

且這才是開端。

【42】The World Bank tells us that with the current projections, global production for minerals such as graphite and cobalt will increase by 500 percent by 2050, only to meet the demand for clean energy technologies.

世界銀行告訴我們, 礦物的全球生產(chǎn)量,如石墨及鈷, 到 2050 年時(shí)會(huì)增加 500%, 這還只是要滿足干凈能源技術(shù)的需求。

【43】Now let's look on the supply side.

接著來談?wù)劰?yīng)面。

【44】That's where a lot of really interesting things are happening.

這里面有許多有趣的狀況。

【45】Who currently exploits and processes minerals and where deposits to meet future demand are located tell us exactly how the transition is going to change geopolitics.

目前誰在開采和加工礦物 以及滿足未來需求礦床的位置 能告訴我們這次能源轉(zhuǎn)型 會(huì)如何改變地緣政治。

【46】So if you look at a material such as lithium, countries like Chile and Australia tend to dominate extraction while China dominates processing.

以鋰為例, 智利和澳洲等國主宰了開采, 而中國主宰了加工。

【47】For cobalt, the Democratic Republic of Congo dominates extraction while China dominates processing.

至于鈷,則是剛果 中國則是主宰了加工。

【48】For nickel, countries like Indonesia and the Philippines tend to dominate extraction, while China, you guessed it, thank you, dominates processing.

至于鎳, 印尼及菲律賓等國 主宰了開采,而…… 中國,你猜對(duì)了,謝謝, 主宰了加工。

【49】And for rare earths, China dominates extraction while China dominates processing.

至于稀土元素, 中國主宰了開采,中國也主宰了加工。

【50】I've just said China a lot, didn't I?

我說了好多次中國,對(duì)吧？

【51】Well, that's because China skillfully leveraged its geo-economic rise to power over the last two decades on the back of integrating supply chains for rare earths from extraction to processing to export.

因?yàn)橹袊谶^去二十年間 整合了稀土元素 從開采、加工到出口的供應(yīng)鏈, 藉此之力登上地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)權(quán)地位。

【52】We tend to point fingers at China today for not going fast enough on its own domestic energy transition, but the truth is that China understood already long ago that it would play a central role in other countries' transitions.

現(xiàn)今我們通常會(huì)指責(zé)中國自己 國內(nèi)的能源轉(zhuǎn)換做得不夠快, 但事實(shí)上,中國很早以前就了解到 它會(huì)在其他國家的能源 轉(zhuǎn)型中扮演中心角色。

【53】And it is.

事實(shí)確實(shí)如此。

【54】The European Union, for instance, is 98 percent dependent on China for rare earths.

以歐盟為例, 其稀土元素有 98% 都仰賴中國。

【55】Needless to say, this puts China in a prime position to redesign the global balance of power.

更不用說, 這讓中國在操控全球 權(quán)力平衡上占有重要地位。

【56】Now, you may argue that this is a good thing because the global balance of power needs a rehaul anyway.

各位可能會(huì)說,這是好事, 因?yàn)槿驒?quán)力平衡 本來就需要徹底改變。

【57】And you know what?

你猜怎磨著？

【58】I can totally roll with that.

我完全不反對(duì)。

【59】But -- and this applies to China, the United States, and any other big player -- we need to make sure that the redesigning process doesn't compromise on human rights or open societies.

但是,不管是中國、美國,及任何大玩家, 我們得要確保權(quán)力重新洗牌的過程 不會(huì)在人權(quán)或開放社會(huì)上讓步。

【60】And that it doesn't lead to the weaponization of supply chains at a time of international instability, and more importantly, at a time of complete climate breakdown.

且它不能造成供應(yīng)的武力化, 不論是在國際不穩(wěn)定的 時(shí)候,或,更重要地, 在氣候完全崩壞的時(shí)候。

【61】Unfortunately, we're already seeing signs of this happening.

不幸的是,我們已經(jīng)看到征兆了。

【62】China is currently trying to gain access to more mineral resources through its Belt and Road Initiative.

中國目前在試圖透過 其「一帶一路倡議」 取得更多礦物資源。

【63】The United States and Europe are both thinking of reshoring critical mining and processing and orienting some of their international partnerships to facilitate access to more mineral resources.

美國和歐洲 都在考慮要將重要的采礦及加工 重新回歸自己國家, 并將它們的一些國際合作關(guān)系 導(dǎo)向更容易取得更多礦物資源的國家。

【64】Japan is exploring some of its oceanic marine reserves to build strategic reserves.

日本正在探勘它的一些 以建造戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備。

【65】I'm also speaking in the shadow of a war on the European continent.

我在演說的同時(shí),歐洲大陸 正在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的危險(xiǎn)之下。

【66】Now at first sight, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has nothing to do with what I've been talking about.

乍看之下, 俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭 和我剛才所說毫無關(guān)系。

【67】But Ukraine happens to be mineral rich.

但是,烏克蘭剛好有豐富的礦藏。

【68】It also happens to be one of only two countries that had struck a partnership with the European Union to diversify and develop supply chains for critical raw materials.

只有它和另一個(gè)國家 和歐盟建立了合作關(guān)系, 針對(duì)重要的原料,使供應(yīng)鏈 更多樣化并開發(fā)供應(yīng)鏈。

【69】That partnership was specifically designed to help the EU decarbonize and in the process to better integrate with Ukraine from a political and economic perspective.

該合作關(guān)系很明確是設(shè)計(jì)來協(xié)助歐盟脫碳, 并在過程中和烏克蘭 從政治及經(jīng)濟(jì)角度做更好的整合。

【70】Eight months after the partnership was struck, the invasion took place.

合作關(guān)系建立的八個(gè)月后, 俄羅斯入侵了。

【71】Now, mineral resources may not explain everything about the war.

這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)或許無法完全 用礦物資源來解釋,

【72】But they certainly can't be ignored in analyzing the events.

但在分析這些事件時(shí), 肯定不能忽略這個(gè)因素。

【73】Because when it comes to the race for critical raw materials, what's actually happening is that we're headed right back into a new scramble for resources,

因?yàn)?談到重要原料的競(jìng)賽, 實(shí)際的狀況是, 我們又走上回頭路, 展開新的資源搶奪戰(zhàn),

【74】at the heart of which you find all of the big players eyeing countries with vast mineral deposits.

在搶奪戰(zhàn)的核心,是所有的大玩家 覬覦著有廣大礦床的國家。

【75】And yet it's so obvious many of these countries that are located, for the most part, in Africa, in Latin America, in Central Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.

但,很明顯,這些國家 許多都位在…… 主要在非洲、 在南美、在中亞、 在印度洋—太平洋區(qū)域。

【76】Economists will tell you that this is a great thing, because these countries, or at least a lot of them, need economic resources and many, to accelerate their development pathway and climate adaptation.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家會(huì)告訴你,這樣很棒, 因?yàn)檫@些國家,至少其中的大部分, 需要大量的經(jīng)濟(jì)資源, 才能加速它們的發(fā)展之路 以及氣候適應(yīng)。

【77】But.

但是,

【78】Many of these countries also have very real overlapping risk profiles.

當(dāng)中有許多國家的 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概況都很相似。

【79】The International Institute for Sustainable Development first produced this map back in 2018.

國際永續(xù)發(fā)展研究所 在 2018 年初次制作出了這張地圖。

【80】Can you see the green dots on the map?

各位可以看到地圖上的綠點(diǎn)嗎？

【81】They represent all of the different materials that we need in order to decarbonize, their geographic location and their deposit size.

它們代表的是脫碳 所需要的各種不同材料, 以及這些材料的位置和礦床的大小。

【82】As it so happens, a lot of the deposits are located in countries that rank fairly high on corruption indices.

好巧不巧,許多這些礦床所在的國家 都有名列前茅的腐敗指數(shù)。

【83】They are represented essentially by the shades of brown and red on the map.

就是在地圖上呈現(xiàn)褐色和紅色的區(qū)塊。

【84】And as it so happens, a lot of the materials are also located in countries that are fragile, such as Sri Lanka, or downright conflict affected, like Myanmar and the Central African Republic.

剛好, 這些材料大部分也位在 像斯里蘭卡這類脆弱的國家中, 甚或像緬甸及中非共和國 這類受軍事沖突影響的國家中。

【85】That's not all.

還沒完呢。

【86】The Notre Dame Institute tells us, with this map, in which you see, again, some red and orange, that countries that are climate vulnerable are also the ones that are resource endowed.

圣母大學(xué)用這張地圖告訴我們什么？ 在地圖上可以看到 紅色和橘色的區(qū)塊 是很容易受氣候影響的國家, 但也同樣是資源豐富的國家。

【87】And one final thing.

最后一點(diǎn)。

【88】You know those big ecosystems that we need to protect and regenerate in order to stabilize the global climate regime?

各位知道我們?yōu)榱朔€(wěn)定全球氣候秩序 而必須要保護(hù)和重建的大生態(tài)系統(tǒng)嗎？

【89】To reboot the hydrological cycle and to protect biodiversity?

這攸關(guān)啟水文循環(huán)的重啟 并將保護(hù)生物多樣性。

【90】They're also represented in orange and red on this map.

這些生態(tài)系統(tǒng)也是這張地圖上 紅色和橘色的部分。

【91】Many of these big ecosystems are located in the same fragile countries that I was mentioning before.

這些大型生態(tài)系統(tǒng)有許多 都位在我剛才提到的脆弱國家,

【92】They also happen to sit on vast mineral deposits.

也剛好就坐落在蘊(yùn)藏豐富的礦床上。

【93】Changing or eliminating these ecosystems through mining, through deforestation or anything else would undermine planetary security.

改變或消滅這些生態(tài)系統(tǒng), 不論是因?yàn)椴傻V、砍伐森林等等, 都會(huì)破壞地球的安全;

【94】Not just international security.

不只是國際安全,

【95】Planetary security.

而是地球的安全。

【96】It's essentially like a perfect storm in the making.

基本上,這就像是 完美風(fēng)暴的醞釀階段。

【97】Corruption, institutional and socioeconomic fragility, climate disruptions and environmental plundering, all acting as a backdrop to a competition to gain access to the minerals that we need in order to decarbonize.

腐敗、 制度上和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)上的脆弱、 氣候混亂及環(huán)境掠奪, 這些都在醞釀著 為了取得脫碳所需礦物資源 的一場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)。

【98】All of these factors will be magnified if we don't rein in the scramble for resources.

這些因素全都會(huì)更加重, 除非我們能控制好資源的爭(zhēng)奪。

【99】All of them will reinforce one another.

它們?nèi)紩?huì)彼此強(qiáng)化。

【100】And I want to make something very clear here.

有件事我要說清楚。

【101】The countries at the heart of the resource scrambling may suffer the most direct consequences in terms of their ability to develop, to adapt to climate change and to avoid violence.

位在資源爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)核心的國家, 可能會(huì)要承受最直接的后果, 影響到它們發(fā)展 和適應(yīng)氣候變遷的能力, 以及避免暴力的能力。

【102】But their fate is not isolated.

但是它們的命運(yùn)和我們是相連的。

【103】Their problems are not geographically distant.

它們的問題在地理上離我們并不遙遠(yuǎn)。

【104】Our big blind spot here is that we're headed towards a decarbonization trajectory that may end up undermining ecological integrity and heighten the risks of conflict and insecurity whose consequences would reverberate worldwide.

這里,我們最大的盲點(diǎn)是, 在朝脫碳前進(jìn)的軌跡上, 我們也危害了生態(tài)的健全, 并提高沖突的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及不安全感, 其后果會(huì)蔓延到全世界。

【105】I know that this is not a particularly encouraging picture.

我知道這不是很鼓舞人心的景象。

【106】And that it comes on top of layers of pictures that are not particularly encouraging.

且它背后還是一層又一層 不很鼓舞人心的景象。

【107】Our modern economies have advanced and grown for two centuries through the gigantic blind spot of fossil fuel exploitation and its unintended consequences.

兩世紀(jì)以來,我們的 現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷進(jìn)步及成長, 靠的是大量濫用化石燃料, 卻胃液料到不經(jīng)意造成的后果。

【108】The big lesson here is that we can't afford to just shift to a different set of energies, technologies and materials without paying attention to the unintended consequences.

這里有很重要的一課: 我們沒有本錢,不能只是 轉(zhuǎn)換成另一組不同的能源、 技術(shù),和材料,而不去注意 不經(jīng)意造成的后果。

【109】The stakes are too high.

賭注太大了。

【110】They involve our future.

賭注涉及到我們的未來。

【111】That we know.

這點(diǎn)我們知道。

【112】But they also involve our humanity.

但也涉及到我們的人性,

【113】And they involve our nature, by which I mean the nature that we choose for ourselves.

以及我們的本性, 我所指的,是我們 為自己選擇的本性。

【114】Decarbonization is the way forward.

脫碳是條向前邁進(jìn)的路。

【115】There’s not one single doubt allowedd about this.

這點(diǎn)無庸置疑。

【116】But the way forward also demands of us that we start imagining our future beyond decarbonization already.

但向前邁進(jìn)的路也需要我們 開始以超越脫碳的思維 想像我們的未來。

【117】Remember what I said at the beginning?

記得我一開始時(shí)說的嗎？

【118】A climate-safe future is a necessary condition for peace.

氣候安全的未來, 是和平的必要條件之一。

【119】But we won't achieve a climate-safe future without peace.

但若沒有和平,我們也無法 達(dá)成氣候安全的未來。

【120】And to build peace, we need to shake things up in international politics and in the way that we do business and economics.

要建立和平, 我們得要在國際政治上做出改變, 也要改變我們做生意 和發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的方式。

【121】So where do we start?

所以,我們要從何做起？

【122】I'd like to offer the scaffolding of a plan in four different baskets.

我想提供一個(gè)計(jì)畫的架構(gòu), 從四個(gè)面向來說:

【123】First, science.

第一,科學(xué)。

【124】Science can tell us exactly where it is safe to mine and where it isn't, from an ecological perspective.

科學(xué)能從生態(tài)的觀點(diǎn)告訴我們 在哪里采礦是安全的、哪里不是。

【125】Where it is not safe to mine, we need to act as though these minerals did not exist and establish protected areas under which no mining licensing can take place.

對(duì)于采礦不安全的地方, 我們得當(dāng)作那些礦物根本不存在, 并設(shè)立保護(hù)區(qū)域, 不得核發(fā)任何在區(qū)域內(nèi)的采礦許可。

【126】Where mining does take place, we can integrate socioeconomic and ecological regeneration within business models.

對(duì)于在采礦的地方, 我們可以整合社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì) 以及生態(tài)再生,放入商業(yè)模型中。

【127】Second, a global public good regime.

第二,好的全球公共制度。

【128】If decarbonization is a matter of human survival, then the materials that we need in order to decarbonize should be managed collectively under a global public good regime.

如果脫碳和人類存亡息息相關(guān), 那么我們脫碳需要的材料 應(yīng)該被一起集體管理, 用一個(gè)好的全球公共制度來管理。

【129】The alternative is conflict and planetary breakdown.

若不這么做,結(jié)果就是 沖突以及地球崩壞。

【130】So while we figure out exactly how to design this regime, the countries at the heart of the scramble for resources should receive adequate support, competent and coherent support

當(dāng)我們還在想到底 要如何設(shè)計(jì)這個(gè)制度時(shí), 身在資源搶奪戰(zhàn) 中心的國家應(yīng)該要得到 適當(dāng)?shù)闹г? 充份且一致的支援,

【131】to face off the joint challenges of geopolitical competition and climate disruptions on the other hand.

才能對(duì)抗地緣政治競(jìng)爭(zhēng) 及另一方面的氣候破壞 加乘起來的挑戰(zhàn)。

【132】In other words, investing into conflict resolution, into the fight against corruption and into context-specific resilience, should be top priorities of our global energy transition.

換言之,投資在沖突的解決方案上, 投資在對(duì)抗腐敗的抗?fàn)幧? 以及情境明確的恢復(fù)力上, 應(yīng)該是全球能源轉(zhuǎn)換的首要任務(wù)。

【133】Third, changing the way that we do business and economics.

第三, 改變我們做生意和發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的方式。

【134】We can't just switch from one energy system to another. I've made that pretty clear, right?

我剛才已清楚說明過我們不能單純 從一種能源系統(tǒng)換到另一種。

【135】What we need instead is to reduce our need for energy and for materials.

反之,我們需要的, 是減少我們對(duì)能源及材料的需求。

【136】And that starts with massive public and private investments into circular economic models that favor recyclability and material substitution.

這就要始于將大量的公共資金 和私人資金投入循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型, 且是提倡可回收性 及材料取代的模型。

【137】Now, here's the thing.

重點(diǎn)是,

【138】We know that this is a necessary step, but not a sufficient one.

我們知道這是必要的一步, 但這一步還不夠。

【139】So what we also need to do is to develop ecological assessments for supply chains that account for greenhouse gas emissions, but also for water, soil, biodiversity, material and energy footprint all at once.

我們還需要做的 是要針對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈來開發(fā)生態(tài)評(píng)估, 評(píng)估時(shí)要考量到溫室氣體排放, 但還有水、土壤、生物多樣性, 材料,以及能源足跡都要一起考量。

【140】Only on this all-encompassing basis will we understand how supply and distribution chains need to change and therefore how globalization needs to transform.

唯有在這種無所不包的基礎(chǔ)上, 我們才能夠了解供應(yīng) 及配送鏈需要怎么改變, 接著才能了解要如何 轉(zhuǎn)變?nèi)蚧姆绞健?/p>

【141】Fourth, innovation.

第四, 創(chuàng)新。

【142】All of this can only happen if we start shifting our thinking about innovation.

要實(shí)現(xiàn)上述這些, 前提是我們得要開始轉(zhuǎn)變 我們對(duì)創(chuàng)新的想法。

【143】Innovation in our times is about bringing back economic footprint within planetary boundaries.

在我們這個(gè)時(shí)代中的創(chuàng)新, 重點(diǎn)在于在地球的限制下 將經(jīng)濟(jì)足跡帶回來。

【144】Anything else, even the coolest of new products, if it isn't aligned with that goal, it's not innovation, it's business as usual.

任何其他東西,就算是 新產(chǎn)品中最酷的, 如果沒有和那目標(biāo)一致, 只是照舊。

【145】In our little corner of the world, my team and I at Carnegie Europe have been working really hard to identify what regenerative foreign policy looks like and what it aims for.

在世界的一個(gè)小角落里, 我和我在歐洲卡內(nèi)基的 團(tuán)隊(duì)一直致力于 找出再生的外交政策是什么樣子, 以及其目標(biāo)為何。

【146】There are two things that we know by now.

目前我們已經(jīng)知道兩點(diǎn)。

【147】One is obvious, we need to tackle fundamental issues around economic redistribution on a global scale.

第一點(diǎn)很明顯,我們需要處理 關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)重新分配的議題, 它是個(gè)全球規(guī)模的議題。

【148】The other thing is that we need a geopolitical de-escalation around decarbonisation and regeneration.

第二點(diǎn),我們需要 在地緣政治面上減緩 脫碳及再生的腳步。

【149】We've translated that into a concept we've called ecological diplomacy.

我們將之轉(zhuǎn)化為一個(gè)概念, 我們稱之為生態(tài)外交。

【150】And we're pushing really hard for the European Union to adopt this framework within their foreign policy.

我們正在努力推促歐盟將 這個(gè)架構(gòu)納入其外交政策中。

【151】Because if there is one thing that we've understood, it's that ecological integrity is the foundation for all types of security.

因?yàn)?如果說我們了解一件事, 那就是:生態(tài)完整性 是各種安全的基礎(chǔ)。

【152】Which makes it the one common denominator that we can work on rebuilding collectively.

這表示,它是一個(gè)公分母, 我們可以針對(duì)它來做到集體重建。

【153】And we can manage.

我們應(yīng)付得來。

【154】Truly, I believe that we can.

真的,我相信我們可以。

【155】As long as we shed light on our transition blind spots and take them as our guiding companions to identify what truly systemic, truly peaceful and truly safe solution pathways look like for the age of climate-disrupted futures.

只要我們能清楚闡釋 我們?cè)谵D(zhuǎn)換上的盲點(diǎn), 并用它們當(dāng)作指引指南, 來辨視出真正系統(tǒng)性、 真正和平, 真正安全的解決途徑 在氣候破壞未來的時(shí)代是什么樣子。

【156】Thank you so much.

非常謝謝。

【157】(Applause)