How to block blazes

如何阻擋火焰

The lessons from Australia’s fires

澳大利亞火災(zāi)的教訓(xùn)

Other countries are vulnerable

其他國家也很脆弱

Jan 11th 2020 |

ONE WAY of capturing the scale of the devastation that forest fires have inflicted on Australia is through figures. Some 11m hectares of the Lucky Country have gone up in smoke since September, almost the same area as Bulgaria. So far at least 26 people are known to have lost their lives, over 2,300 homes have been destroyed and over half a billion animals have been burned alive or choked to death. But numbers tell only part of the story . A plume of smoke has drifted across the South Pacific ocean, reaching Buenos Aires. Australia’s normally phlegmatic society has been shaken. Shane Warne, the most celebrated sportsman in a sports-mad nation, has gone so far as to raise money for the relief effort by auctioning off the baggy cap he wore as part of Australia’s all-conquering cricket team.

要想了解森林火災(zāi)給澳大利亞造成的破壞程度，一個(gè)方法是通過數(shù)據(jù)。自9月以來，這個(gè)幸運(yùn)的國度約有1100萬公頃的土地被毀，幾乎與保加利亞面積相當(dāng)。到目前為止，已知至少有26人喪生，2300多座房屋被毀，超過5億只動(dòng)物被活活燒死或窒息而死。但是數(shù)字只能說明一部分。一股濃煙飄過南太平洋，到達(dá)布宜諾斯艾利斯。澳大利亞一向冷漠的社會已被撼動(dòng)。肖恩?沃恩(Shane Warne)是這個(gè)熱愛體育的國家最著名的運(yùn)動(dòng)員，他甚至拍賣了自己作為所向披靡的澳大利亞板球隊(duì)隊(duì)員時(shí)戴的那頂松松垮垮的帽子，為救災(zāi)行動(dòng)籌集資金。

詞匯

Be choked to death/窒息而死

Phlegmatic/冷淡的；遲鈍的

so far as to/甚至

Auction off/拍賣掉

You might think that Australia is particularly vulnerable to forest fires. But that would be a mistake. Many other countries share the same conditions that have set Australia ablaze, physically and politically, including similar terrain and a leadership that has yet to wake up fully to the new reality that climate change is creating. Worldwide, fire seasons are getting longer and more damaging. The areas at risk include America’s west coast, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and swathes of Central Asia. If that sounds alarmist, remember that in 2018 California had the deadliest forest fires in its history, killing over 80 people and causing parts of Los Angeles to be evacuated, while over 100 people died in wildfires in Greece.

你可能認(rèn)為澳大利亞特別容易遭受森林火災(zāi)。但這是錯(cuò)誤的想法。許多其他國家在地理和政治上都與澳大利亞有著(造成火災(zāi)的)相同的狀況，包括相似的地形和尚未完全意識到新的氣候變化形式正在演變的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層。在世界范圍內(nèi)，火災(zāi)季節(jié)越來越長，破壞性也越來越大。面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的地區(qū)包括美國西海岸、地中海、非洲南部和中亞大片地區(qū)。如果這聽起來危言聳聽，請記住，在2018年，加州發(fā)生了歷史上最致命的森林火災(zāi)，造成80多人死亡，洛杉磯部分地區(qū)被疏散，而在希臘，100多人死于野火。

詞匯

Ablaze/著火的，猛火燃燒

Terrain/地形，地勢

As a result, the lessons from Australia’s tragedy are important. One is that climate change is making infernos more likely. It is true that forest fires are a long-standing part of some territories’ ecology. But as the world gets hotter and drier, their incidence and severity are rising. In 2019 Australia’s mean temperature was the highest since records began in 1910, 1.5°C above the long-run average. The amount of rainfall, meanwhile, was 40% below the long-term average and at the lowest level since 1900. For at least a decade climate models, sometimes derided by sceptics, have accurately predicted worsening droughts and infernos in Australia.

因此，澳大利亞悲劇的教訓(xùn)很重要。一是氣候變化使其變成人間地獄變得更有可能。的確，森林火災(zāi)是一些地區(qū)長期存在的生態(tài)問題。但隨著世界變得越來越熱、越來越干燥，其發(fā)生概率和嚴(yán)重程度都在上升。2019年，澳大利亞的平均氣溫是自1910年有記錄以來的最高水平，比長期平均水平高出1.5攝氏度。與此同時(shí)，降雨量比長期平均水平低40%，是1900年以來的最低水平。至少十年來，氣候模型(有時(shí)被懷疑論者嘲笑)準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測了澳大利亞日益惡化的干旱和人間地獄情形。

詞匯

Inferno/陰間，地獄

Incidence/發(fā)生率；影響

Deride/嘲笑；嘲弄

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Another lesson is that as fires get worse the old ways of assessing and containing them have become obsolete. Unlikely as it may seem, Australia’s fire-planning is ahead of most of the world’s—it carries out preventive burns, for example, and its planning codes seek to limit fire risks. Nonetheless this system, and a heroic voluntary firefighting force, has been overwhelmed. Attention must now turn to how to live with fires. In some places, that will mean building structures that can resist the flames. Other regions may no longer be suitable for human habitation. If governments and residents do not act, financial markets will. In California insurance firms have lost $24bn from recent fires, and the cost of bundling and reinsuring these risks is soaring as investors become unwilling to underwrite homes in dangerous places.

另一個(gè)教訓(xùn)是，隨著火災(zāi)的惡化，評估和控制火災(zāi)的老方法已經(jīng)過時(shí)了。盡管看起來不太可能，澳大利亞的火災(zāi)規(guī)劃走在了世界大多數(shù)國家的前面——例如，它進(jìn)行預(yù)防性的燃燒，它的規(guī)劃法規(guī)尋求限制火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。盡管如此，這個(gè)系統(tǒng)，以及英勇的志愿消防部隊(duì)，已經(jīng)不堪重負(fù)?，F(xiàn)在必須把注意力轉(zhuǎn)向如何與火災(zāi)共存。在一些地方，這意味著建筑結(jié)構(gòu)可以抵御火焰。其他地區(qū)可能不再適合人類居住。如果政府和居民不采取行動(dòng)，金融市場就會采取行動(dòng)。在加州，保險(xiǎn)公司在最近的火災(zāi)中損失了240億美元，由于投資者不愿在危險(xiǎn)地區(qū)承保房屋，這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的捆綁和再保險(xiǎn)成本正在飆升。

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The last lesson is that, as the costs of climate change stop being just about abstract temperature forecasts and start being something you can smell in your nostrils, the politics surrounding it will change, too. Australia’s conservative politicians have long downplayed climate risks, in part because some 70% of the country’s exports come from natural-resource extraction, most notably coal and iron ore shipped to China.

最后一個(gè)教訓(xùn)是，隨著氣候變化的代價(jià)不再僅僅是抽象的溫度預(yù)測，而是你可以在鼻孔里聞到的東西，圍繞它的政治也會改變。長期以來，澳大利亞的保守派政治家一直輕視氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，部分原因是該國約70%的出口來自自然資源開采，其中最主要的是運(yùn)往中國的煤炭和鐵礦石。

詞匯

Nostril/鼻孔

Downplay/對……輕描淡寫；輕視，貶低

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Scott Morrison, the prime minister, won an election in 2019 in stunning fashion, partly on a climate-sceptical platform that appealed in Queensland, a swing state with a big coal industry. He is now being pilloried for his government’s laggardly climate policies and stuttering response to the fires. His position may be secure for now, but 61% of Australians think climate change is a pressing problem. Sooner or later, in hot, dry places all over the world, politicians who fail to deal with climate disasters may find their credibility going up in smoke.

澳大利亞總理斯科特?莫里森(Scott Morrison)以驚人的方式贏得了2019年的大選，部分原因是他對氣候變化持懷疑態(tài)度，這在昆士蘭州很有吸引力。昆士蘭州是一個(gè)擁有龐大煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)的搖擺州。他現(xiàn)在正因?yàn)檎t緩的氣候政策和對火災(zāi)的斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的反應(yīng)而受到抨擊。他的地位目前可能是穩(wěn)固的，但61%的澳大利亞人認(rèn)為氣候變化是一個(gè)緊迫的問題。在世界各地炎熱干旱的地方，那些無法應(yīng)對氣候?yàn)?zāi)難的政客們遲早會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的信譽(yù)化為烏有。

詞匯

swing state/搖擺州，美國政治名詞，又常稱為戰(zhàn)場州，指競選雙方支持率差距不大的州。在歷屆大選中這些州經(jīng)常會倒向不同的政黨，頻頻搖擺。

Pillory/抨擊

Laggardly/緩慢的；落后的