The energy crisis unleashed by Russia’s war on Ukraine is crushing Europe’s consumers and panicking its politicians. Natural-gas prices are eight times higher than they were last summer and traders expect precious little respite over the coming year. Global oil prices are nearly twice their level in January 2021. The result is rampant rises in living costs. By October a household in Britain could be paying more than ￡3,500 ($4,200) a year for energy, more than three times last year’s bill, leading the Bank of England to warn of inflation passing 13% before the year is out. Annual consumer-price inflation rates are already in double digits in half of the euro area’s member countries.?

【1】respite 喘息

俄羅斯對(duì)烏克蘭的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)所引發(fā)的能源危機(jī)正在打擊歐洲的消費(fèi)者，并讓歐洲的政治家們感到恐慌。天然氣價(jià)格是去年夏天的8倍，交易員們預(yù)計(jì)來年不會(huì)有什么喘息的機(jī)會(huì)。全球油價(jià)幾乎是2021年1月的兩倍。結(jié)果導(dǎo)致生活成本飆升。到今年10月，英國(guó)的一個(gè)家庭每年要為能源支付超過3500英鎊(4200美元)的費(fèi)用，這一數(shù)字是去年能源賬單的三倍多，這使得英格蘭銀行發(fā)出警告，通貨膨脹率將在今年年底前超過13%。歐元區(qū)半數(shù)成員國(guó)的年度消費(fèi)價(jià)格通脹率已經(jīng)達(dá)到兩位數(shù)。

Alas, politicians are botching their response. To stop rising wholesale energy prices passing through fully to consumers’ bills, many have resorted to price caps and energy-tax reductions. Liz Truss, a Conservative politician vying to become Britain’s next prime minister, is talking of cutting payroll taxes. But price ceilings do nothing to reduce energy use and tax cuts will not protect the poorest. With no immediate end to the crunch in sight, it is time for some hard-headed thinking about how to live with higher energy bills.

哎，政客們應(yīng)對(duì)的方式過于糟糕。為了阻止不斷上漲的能源批發(fā)價(jià)格完全轉(zhuǎn)嫁到消費(fèi)者的賬單上，許多政客們采取了價(jià)格上限和降低能源稅的措施。利茲·特拉斯是一名競(jìng)爭(zhēng)英國(guó)下任首相的保守黨政治家，她正在談?wù)撓鳒p工資稅。但價(jià)格上限對(duì)減少能源使用沒有任何作用，減稅也不會(huì)保護(hù)最貧困的人。眼下，危機(jī)還沒有結(jié)束的跡象，是時(shí)候冷靜地思考如何應(yīng)對(duì)更高的能源賬單了。

The cheapest protection is to trade natural gas across national borders, which imf modelling suggests could nearly halve the blow to GDP in the worst-affected countries. Next, within domestic markets, price signals have a vital role to play in curbing demand and ensuring that precious gas gets to where it is most needed. Ceilings on the price of natural gas used by power generators, as in Spain and Portugal, or a cap on household bills, as in France, may serve as emergency measures when a shock is fleeting. But today’s scarcity is likely to be long-lasting. Consumers and businesses need to adapt.?

最廉價(jià)的保護(hù)措施是跨境交易天然氣，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的模型表明，這可能會(huì)使受影響最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家的GDP受到的打擊減少近一半。其次，在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，價(jià)格信號(hào)在抑制需求和確保寶貴的天然氣到達(dá)最需要的地方方面發(fā)揮著至關(guān)重要的作用。像西班牙和葡萄牙那樣，對(duì)發(fā)電廠使用的天然氣價(jià)格設(shè)置上限，或者像法國(guó)那樣，對(duì)家庭賬單設(shè)置上限，這些都可以在短暫的沖擊時(shí)作為應(yīng)急措施。但今天的“短缺”情況可能會(huì)持續(xù)很久。消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)需要適應(yīng)。

Hearteningly, there are signs that people and businesses can and do respond to high prices by conserving energy. They are also more resilient than fearful governments might think. In Germany farmers and industrialists are importing more ammonia and other energy-intensive chemicals, rather than relying on dearer domestically produced inputs. Studies suggest that both German households and firms have reduced their consumption of natural gas since mid-2021.?

令人振奮的是，有跡象表明，人們和企業(yè)確實(shí)能夠通過節(jié)約能源來應(yīng)對(duì)高油價(jià)的問題。他們也比擔(dān)憂的政府所想象的那樣更有彈性。在德國(guó)，農(nóng)民和工業(yè)家正在進(jìn)口更多的氨和其他能源密集型化學(xué)品，而不是依賴昂貴的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的投入。研究表明，自2021年年中以來，德國(guó)家庭和企業(yè)的天然氣消費(fèi)量都有所減少。

Sometimes conservation can be galvanised by regulation. Spanish businesses and shops now go dark after 10pm, and the air-conditioning standards for public and commercial buildings are set at a minimum of 27°C, to encourage Spaniards to go shopping in their t-shirts. Likewise, energy companies can help change behaviour by telling people how much energy they use compared with their neighbours. Such interventions are cheap (though some have the drawback of muffling price signals), and can help defuse the incendiary politics of high prices. Affecting rich and poor alike, they are seen as fair.

有時(shí)，監(jiān)管可以促進(jìn)保護(hù)?，F(xiàn)在，西班牙的企業(yè)和商店在晚上10點(diǎn)后就會(huì)熄燈，公共和商業(yè)建筑的空調(diào)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)定為最低限度27攝氏度，以鼓勵(lì)西班牙人穿著T恤去購(gòu)物。同樣，能源公司可以通過告訴人們與鄰居相比他們使用了多少能源，從而幫助改變?nèi)藗兊男袨?。這樣的干預(yù)措施是不費(fèi)力的(盡管有些干預(yù)手段有抑制價(jià)格信號(hào)的缺點(diǎn))，有助于緩和高價(jià)格的煽動(dòng)性政治。無論是富人還是窮人，這些干預(yù)措施對(duì)他們而言都是公平的，他們都會(huì)受其影響。

But governments also need to protect those most in need, notably poor people, for whom energy bills make up a bigger share of household spending. Politicians cannot stop rising energy prices from making economies worse off, but they can determine who bears the brunt of the shock. Support, in the form of rebates on energy bills for the poorest, or even cash bonuses (as recently enacted in Italy), would help the neediest, while still encouraging consumers to conserve energy where they can.

【1】 bear or take the brunt of 在…中首當(dāng)其沖

但政府也需要保護(hù)那些最需要的人，尤其是窮人，因?yàn)樗麄兊哪茉粗С稣技彝ブС龅谋壤?。政客們無法阻止能源價(jià)格的上漲使經(jīng)濟(jì)惡化，但他們可以決定誰將首當(dāng)其沖受到?jīng)_擊。支持的形式包括為最貧困者的能源賬單提供返款，甚至是現(xiàn)金獎(jiǎng)金(最近在意大利頒布) ，這將幫助最需要幫助的人，同時(shí)仍然鼓勵(lì)消費(fèi)者盡可能節(jié)約能源。

Targeting is essential to keep the cost in check. According to the imf, some European governments are on course to spend 1.5% of GDP on energy policies by the end of the year. Measures that protect the poorest fifth of the population would cost only 0.4% of GDP; the poorest two-fifths, 0.9%. Trying to buy support by including everyone is a bad use of public money.

確定目標(biāo)對(duì)于控制成本至關(guān)重要。根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù)，一些歐洲政府有望在今年年底前將GDP的1.5%用于能源政策。保護(hù)最貧窮的五分之一人口的措施只需要GDP的0.4%；保護(hù)最窮的五分之二，需要GDP的0.9%。試圖通過包括所有人來獲得支持是對(duì)公共資金的不當(dāng)使用。

Windfall pitfallWho, then, should pay? The crowd-pleasing choice is the energy companies, which are making out like bandits, but general taxation makes more sense. Windfall taxes on energy producers are undesirable if their fortunes follow the boom and bust of the commodities cycle. That only leads to underinvestment—and the next bout of sky-high prices.

【1】boom-bust 經(jīng)濟(jì)大起大落的

那么，誰應(yīng)該為此買單呢？受大眾歡迎的選擇是能源公司，它們像強(qiáng)盜一樣獲得暴利，不過普通稅收更有意義。如果能源生產(chǎn)商的財(cái)富跟隨大宗商品周期的繁榮和蕭條，那么對(duì)它們征收暴利稅是不可取的。這只會(huì)導(dǎo)致投資不足和下一輪的極高的價(jià)格。