文章來(lái)源：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》Nov 18th 2023 期 Leaders 欄目 Japan's economy 日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)

日本能否重新找回經(jīng)濟(jì)活力？

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Global investors?are giddy about Japan again.?Warren Buffett made his first visit to Tokyo in more than a decade this spring; he has built up big holdings in five trading houses that offer exposure to a cross-section of Japan Inc.?Last month Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, joined the pilgrimage to Japan’s capital.?“History is repeating itself,” he told Kishida Fumio, the prime minister. He likened the moment to Japan’s “economic miracle” of the 1980s.?Even disappointing GDP figures released on November 15th will not dent investors’ optimism.

全球投資者再次對(duì)日本充滿期待。今年春天，沃倫·巴菲特十多年來(lái)首次訪問東京。他在五家貿(mào)易公司中持有大量股份，通過這些公司管中窺豹，了解日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)。上個(gè)月，全球最大資產(chǎn)管理公司貝萊德首席執(zhí)行官拉里·芬克也加入了前往日本首都的朝圣之旅。他告訴日本首相岸田文雄：“歷史正在重演。”他將這一時(shí)刻比作日本1980年代的“經(jīng)濟(jì)奇跡”。盡管11月15日公布的 GDP 數(shù)據(jù)令人失望，但這不會(huì)削弱投資者的樂觀情緒。

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Sceptics would say that the only history repeating itself is outsiders falling for yet another Japanese false dawn.?The miracle of the 1980s ended with an asset bubble bursting and the country sliding into decades of deflation, or excessively low inflation, and stagnation.?Every ten years or so since then, observers, this newspaper among them, have warmed to a new prime minister, identified promising signs of change and claimed to see the sun peeping over the horizon.?Foreign investors flood back. Then a few years later they retreat, cold and disappointed.?Is this latest promised dawn any different?

懷疑論者會(huì)說(shuō)，唯一的歷史重演是外人又一次相信了日本的虛假曙光。1980年代的奇跡以資產(chǎn)泡沫破裂而告終，日本陷入了數(shù)十年的通貨緊縮，或極低通貨膨脹以及停滯狀態(tài)。從那時(shí)起每隔十年左右，觀察家們（包括本報(bào)在內(nèi)）都會(huì)對(duì)新首相產(chǎn)生好感，找到變革的跡象，并宣稱看到了地平線上的太陽(yáng)。外國(guó)投資者蜂擁而至。幾年后，他們又失望而歸。這次最新的曙光有什么不同嗎？

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It really could be.?Two external shocks and two internal shifts have coincided to change the landscape for the Japanese economy.?The most palpable shock has to do with prices. Whereas most countries have been obsessed with keeping inflation down in recent years, Japan has been hoping it might finally pick up—and stay up.?Global supply squeezes and a weak exchange rate have duly done what years of audacious monetary easing could not achieve, and pushed the headline inflation rate over the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.?Admittedly, that is not the demand-driven inflation that the BoJ would like to see.?Even so, it has changed how firms, workers and consumers think about prices and, crucially, wages.?A path, albeit a narrow one, has opened to a healthier cycle of wage and consumption growth.

這次可能是真的。兩次外部沖擊和兩次內(nèi)部變革同時(shí)改變了日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的格局。最明顯的沖擊與價(jià)格有關(guān)。近年來(lái)，大多數(shù)國(guó)家都熱衷于控制通貨膨脹，但日本卻一直希望通脹率更高一點(diǎn)，并保持在高位。全球供應(yīng)緊縮和匯率疲軟確實(shí)做到了多年大膽貨幣寬松政策未能實(shí)現(xiàn)的事情，并將通脹率推至日本央行2%的目標(biāo)之上。誠(chéng)然，這并不是日本央行希望看到的需求驅(qū)動(dòng)型通脹。即便如此，它還是改變了企業(yè)、工人和消費(fèi)者對(duì)價(jià)格（尤其是對(duì)工資）的看法。一條通往工資和消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)更健康循環(huán)的道路（盡管是一條狹窄的道路）已經(jīng)開啟。

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The other shock is geopolitical. The war in Ukraine and the superpower stand-off have spurred a new wave of investment in critical industries and a reconfiguration of regional supply chains that Japan could benefit from.

另一個(gè)沖擊來(lái)自地緣政治。烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以及超級(jí)大國(guó)之間對(duì)峙已經(jīng)刺激了對(duì)重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的新一波投資，并導(dǎo)致了地區(qū)供應(yīng)鏈的重新配置，日本可以從中受益。

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The internal shifts are subtler, but no less important.?Corporate-governance reforms that began under a previous prime minister, Abe Shinzo, have become entrenched.?Indeed, they have entered a promising new phase, as Japanese institutional investors—and even the Tokyo Stock Exchange—are putting more pressure on big companies to enhance their value.

內(nèi)部變革更為微妙，但同樣重要。在前首相安倍晉三的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下開始的企業(yè)治理改革已經(jīng)深入人心。事實(shí)上，變革已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了一個(gè)充滿希望的新階段，因?yàn)槿毡緳C(jī)構(gòu)投資者——甚至東京證券交易所——都在向大公司施加更多壓力，督促公司提高價(jià)值。

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Another underappreciated part of the story is generational change.?At old firms, bosses attached to ways of doing business that worked during the glory days of the 1980s are exiting the scene.?Young entrepreneurs want to build a new Japan Inc.

還有一個(gè)被低估的變革是代際變化。在老牌企業(yè)中，老板們對(duì)1980年代輝煌時(shí)期行之有效的經(jīng)營(yíng)方式戀戀不舍，然而他們正在退出歷史舞臺(tái)。年輕企業(yè)家則希望打造全新的日本公司。

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Yet much in the Japanese economy remains unchanged and unchanging.?For Japan to make good on the promise of the moment, policymakers, executives and politicians must do more to nurture the green shoots of dynamism.?For a start, the BoJ must execute a complex dance in the coming year.?It must unwind unorthodox monetary policies that have outlived their usefulness, such as its yield-curve control, without suffocating the nascent inflation.?In time the highly indebted government will probably have to find a way to cope with rising interest rates.

然而，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的許多方面仍然沒有改變。日本要兌現(xiàn)當(dāng)下的承諾，政策制定者、高管和政治家就必須采取更多措施來(lái)培育經(jīng)濟(jì)活力的新生跡象。首先，日本央行必須在未來(lái)一年里做出復(fù)雜的協(xié)調(diào)與決策。日本央行必須解除已經(jīng)失去效用的非正統(tǒng)貨幣政策，如控制收益率曲線，同時(shí)又不能抑制新生的通貨膨脹率。隨著時(shí)間的推移，赤字嚴(yán)重的政府可能不得不想辦法應(yīng)對(duì)利率的上升。

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The process of corporate reform must also continue.?Japanese firms are now well versed in the forms of good governance, but they need to get better at the substance.?Around 40% of companies in the TOPIX 500 trade below book value.?In an unstable world corporate leaders must do more than just preserve the status quo.?Luckily they have plenty of room for manoeuvre, after years of hoarding cash on their balance-sheets.

企業(yè)改革進(jìn)程也必須繼續(xù)下去。日本企業(yè)現(xiàn)在對(duì)良好治理的形式已經(jīng)了如指掌，但他們需要在實(shí)質(zhì)方面做得更好。東證500指數(shù)中約有40%的公司市值低于賬面價(jià)值。在動(dòng)蕩的世界中，企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者必須做的不僅僅是維持現(xiàn)狀。幸運(yùn)的是，經(jīng)過多年的賬面現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備，他們還有足夠的施展空間。

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Mr Kishida has promised to focus on “economy, economy, economy”.?Compared with his predecessors, he has spoken more about supporting startups.?Yet his latest economic package, announced earlier this month, is heavy on one-off tax cuts and stimulus measures that seem designed to boost his popularity, rather than long-term growth.?He could turn words into deeds by revising tax codes to reward risk-taking investors and entrepreneurs and by withdrawing support for zombie incumbents.?The prime minister is right to trumpet the need for new-company formation.?But he also needs to play his part in clearing away corporate dead wood.

岸田文雄承諾將重點(diǎn)關(guān)注“經(jīng)濟(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)”。與前任首相相比，他更多地談到了支持初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。然而，他本月初宣布的最新經(jīng)濟(jì)方案主要側(cè)重于一次性減稅和刺激措施，這些措施似乎是為了提高他的聲望，而不是為了實(shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)。他可以通過修訂稅法來(lái)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)敢于冒險(xiǎn)的投資者和企業(yè)家，撤回對(duì)僵尸企業(yè)的支持，將言語(yǔ)變?yōu)樾袆?dòng)。首相大肆宣揚(yáng)成立新公司的必要性是正確的。但他也需要盡自己的努力清除企業(yè)中的累贅。