The Review of Economic Studies??2023年第4期

Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

Managerial Quality and Productivity Dynamics

管理質(zhì)量和生產(chǎn)力動(dòng)態(tài)

Achyuta Adhvaryuand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1569–1607,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac062

Do productivity and managerial quality vary within the firm? If so which managerial traits and practices matter most for team productivity? Combining granular garment production data with survey data on managers across 120 production lines in India, we document substantial productivity dispersion both across teams producing overlapping products and within team over the course of production runs, and structurally link this variation to a comprehensive assessment of supervisor quality. We find that factors related to managerial attention and control are the most important for enabling line productivity, both more impactful than traditionally emphasized dimensions like cognitive skills and tenure. We document that one mechanism by which specific managerial practices contribute to productivity is by way of enabling faster learning-by-doing. In-sample pay patterns suggest potential net gains from screening for or training in less readily measured dimensions of managerial quality, as pass-through of productivity contributions to pay is incomplete.

Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest

亞馬遜雨林的最佳環(huán)境目標(biāo)

Juliano Assun??oand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1608–1641,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac064

This article sets out a data-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world’s most extensive rainforest, where Brazil’s federal government issued a “Priority List” of municipalities in 2008—a blacklist to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. First, we estimate the causal impact of the Priority List on deforestation (along with other relevant treatment effects) using “changes-in-changes” due to Athey and Imbens (2006), finding that it reduced deforestation by 43|$\%$|and cut emissions by almost 50 million tons of carbon. Second, we develop a novel framework for computing targeted optimal blacklists that draws on our treatment effect estimates, assigning municipalities to a counterfactual list that minimizes total deforestation subject to realistic resource constraints. We show that the?ex post?optimal list would result in carbon emissions over 10|$\%$|?lower than the actual list, amounting to savings of more than?|$ \$ $|1.2 billion (34|$\%$|?of the total value of the Priority List), with emissions over 23|$\%$|?lower on average than a randomly selected list. The approach we propose is relevant both for assessing targeted counterfactual policies to reduce deforestation and for quantifying the impacts of policy targeting more generally.

Wealth Dynamics in Communities

社區(qū)財(cái)富動(dòng)態(tài)

Daniel Barronand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1642–1668,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac057

This article develops a model to explore how favour exchange influences wealth dynamics. We identify a key obstacle to wealth accumulation: wealth crowds out favour exchange. Therefore, households must choose between growing their wealth and accessing favour exchange. We show that low-wealth households rely on favour exchange at the cost of having tightly limited long-term wealth. As a result, initial wealth disparities persist and can even grow worse. We then explore how communities and policymakers can overcome this obstacle. Using simulations, we show that community benefits and place-based policies can stimulate both saving and favour exchange, and in some cases, can even transform favour exchange into a force that accelerates wealth accumulation.

Culture and the Historical Fertility Transition

文化與歷史生育過渡

Brian Beachand?W Walker Hanlon

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1669–1700,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac059

The historical transition to a low fertility regime was central for long-run growth, but what caused it? Existing economic explanations largely focus on the economic incentives to limit fertility. This article presents new evidence highlighting the importance of cultural forces as a complementary driver of the fertility transition. We leverage a sharp change in fertility in Britain in 1877 and document large synchronized declines in fertility among culturally British households residing outside of Britain, in Canada, the US, and South Africa, relative to their non-British neighbours. We propose a plausible catalyst for the change: the famous Bradlaugh–Besant trial of 1877.

Data-intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from AI Firms in China

數(shù)據(jù)密集型創(chuàng)新與國家:來自中國人工智能公司的證據(jù)

Martin Berajaand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1701–1723,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac056

Developing artificial intelligence (AI) technology requires data. In many domains, government data far exceed in magnitude and scope data collected by the private sector, and AI firms often gain access to such data when providing services to the state. We argue that such access can stimulate commercial AI innovation in part because data and trained algorithms are shareable across government and commercial uses. We gather comprehensive information on firms and public security procurement contracts in China’s facial recognition AI industry. We quantify the data accessible through contracts by measuring public security agencies’ capacity to collect surveillance video. Using a triple-differences strategy, we find thatdata-rich?contracts, compared to?data-scarce?ones, lead recipient firms to develop significantly and substantially more commercial AI software. Our analysis suggests a contribution of government data to the rise of China’s facial recognition AI firms, and that states’ data collection and provision policies could shape AI innovation.

An Instrumental Variable Approach to Dynamic Models

動(dòng)態(tài)模型的工具變量方法

Steven T Berryand?Giovanni Compiani

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1724–1758,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac061

We present a new class of methods for identification and inference in dynamic models with serially correlated unobservables, which typically imply that state variables are econometrically endogenous. In the context of Industrial Organization, these state variables often reflect econometrically endogenous market structure. We propose the use of Generalized Instrument Variables methods to identify those dynamic policy functions that are consistent with instrumental variable (IV) restrictions. Extending popular “two-step” methods, these policy functions then identify a set of structural parameters that are consistent with the dynamic model, the IV restrictions and the data. We provide computed illustrations to both single-agent and oligopoly examples. We also present a simple empirical analysis that, among other things, supports the counterfactual study of an environmental policy entailing an increase in sunk costs.

Time Consistency and Duration of Government Debt: A Model of Quantitative Easing

政府債務(wù)的時(shí)間一致性和期限:量化寬松模型

Saroj Bhattaraiand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1759–1799,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac063

This article presents a model of quantitative easing (QE) at the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the short-term nominal interest rate. QE, which reduces the maturity of government debt, is effective at the ZLB because it generates expectations of future monetary expansion in a time-consistent equilibrium. Numerical experiments show that this effect can be substantial.

Career Spillovers in Internal Labour Markets

內(nèi)部勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的職業(yè)溢出效應(yīng)

Nicola Bianchiand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1800–1831,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac067

This article studies career spillovers across workers, which arise in firms with limited promotion opportunities. We exploit a 2011 Italian pension reform that unexpectedly tightened eligibility criteria for the public pension, leading to sudden, substantial, and heterogeneous retirement delays. Using administrative data on Italian private-sector workers, the analysis leverages cross-firm variation to isolate the effect of retirement delays among soon-to-retire workers on the wage growth and promotions of their colleagues. We find evidence of spillover patterns consistent with older workers blocking the careers of their younger colleagues, but only in firms with limited promotion opportunities.

Opinions as Facts

意見即事實(shí)

Leonardo Bursztynand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1832–1864,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac065

The rise of opinion programs has transformed television news. Because they present anchors’ subjective commentary and analysis, opinion programs often convey conflicting narratives about reality. We experimentally document that people across the ideological spectrum turn to opinion programs over “straight news”, even when provided large incentives to learn objective facts. We then examine the consequences of diverging narratives between opinion programs in a high-stakes setting: the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. We find stark differences in the adoption of preventative behaviours among viewers of the two most popular opinion programs, both on the same network, which adopted opposing narratives about the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. We then show that areas with greater relative viewership of the program downplaying the threat experienced a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our evidence suggests that opinion programs may distort important beliefs and behaviours.

Agenda-Manipulation in Ranking

議程操縱排名

Gregorio Curelloand?Ludvig Sinander

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1865–1892,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac071

We study the susceptibility of committee governance (e.g. by boards of directors), modelled as the collective determination of a ranking of a set of alternatives, to manipulation of the order in which pairs of alternatives are voted on—agenda-manipulation.We exhibit an agenda strategy called?insertion sort?that allows a self-interested committee chair with no knowledge of how votes will be cast to do as well as if she had complete knowledge. Strategies with this “regret-freeness” property are characterized by their?efficiency,?and by their avoidance of two intuitive errors. What distinguishes regret-free strategies from each other is how they prioritize among alternatives; insertion sort prioritizes?lexicographically.

Optimal Corporate Taxation Under Financial Frictions

金融摩擦下的最佳企業(yè)稅收

Eduardo Dávilaand?Benjamin Hébert

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1893–1933,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac068

This article studies the optimal design of corporate taxes when firms have private information about future investment opportunities and face financial constraints. A government whose goal is to efficiently raise a given amount of revenue from its corporate sector should attempt to tax unconstrained firms, which value resources inside the firm less than financially constrained firms. We show that a corporate payout tax (a tax on dividends and share repurchases) can both separate constrained and unconstrained firms and raise revenue and is therefore optimal. Our quantitative analysis implies that a revenue-neutral switch from profit taxation to payout taxation would increase the overall value of existing firms and new entrants by|$7\%$|?. This switch could be implemented in the current US tax system by making retained earnings fully deductible.

Moral Universalism and the Structure of Ideology

道德普遍主義與意識(shí)形態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu)

Benjamin Enkeand others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1934–1962,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac066

Throughout the Western world, people’s policy views are correlated across domains in a strikingly similar fashion. This article proposes that what partly explains the structure of ideology ismoral universalism: the extent to which people exhibit the same level of altruism and trust towards strangers as towards in-group members. In new large-scale multinational surveys, heterogeneity in universalism descriptively explains why some people support redistribution, health care, environmental protection, affirmative action, and foreign aid, while others advocate for spending on the military, law enforcement, and border protection. Universalism is a substantially stronger predictor of policy views and ideological constraints than variables such as income, wealth, education, religiosity, or beliefs about government efficiency. Consistent with the idea that universalism shapes policy views, we further document that the left–right divide on redistribution, environmental protection, or foreign aid strongly attenuates or even reverses when people evaluate less universalist implementations of these policies.

Subsidizing Labour Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment and Welfare Effects of Short-time Work

在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中補(bǔ)貼勞動(dòng)力囤積:短期工作的就業(yè)和福利效應(yīng)

Giulia Giupponiand?Camille Landais

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 1963–2005,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac069

Short-time work (STW) policies provide subsidies for hour reductions to workers in firms experiencing temporary shocks. They are the main policy tool used to support labour hoarding during downturns and were aggressively used during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Yet, very little is known about their employment and welfare consequences. This article leverages unique administrative social security data from Italy and quasi-experimental variation in STW policy rules to offer evidence on the effects of STW on firms’ and workers’ outcomes during the Great Recession. Our results show large and significant negative effects of STW treatment on hours, but large and positive effects on headcount employment. We then analyse whether these positive employment effects are welfare enhancing, distinguishing between temporary and more persistent shocks. We first provide evidence that liquidity constraints and rigidities in wages and hours may make labour hoarding inefficiently low without STW. Then, we show that adverse selection of low productivity firms into STW reduces the long-run insurance value of the program and creates significant negative reallocation effects when the shock is persistent.

Estimation of Discrete Games with Weak Assumptions on Information

信息弱假設(shè)下離散對(duì)策的估計(jì)

Lorenzo Magnolfiand?Camilla Roncoroni

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 2006–2041,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac058

We propose a method to estimate static discrete games with weak assumptions on the information available to players. We do not fully specify the information structure of the game but allow instead for all information structures consistent with players knowing their own payoffs. To make this approach tractable, we adopt as a solution concept Bayes correlated equilibrium (BCE). We characterize the sharp identified set under BCE and unrestricted equilibrium selection, and find that in simple games with limited variation in covariates identified sets are informative. In an application, we estimate a model of entry in the Italian supermarket industry and quantify the effect of large malls on local supermarkets. Estimates and predictions differ from those obtained under more restrictive assumptions.

Screening with Frames: Implementation in Extensive Form

用框架篩選:以廣泛的形式實(shí)現(xiàn)

Franz Ostrizekand?Denis Shishkin

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 4, July 2023, Pages 2042–2082,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac070

We study a decision-framing design problem: a principal faces an agent with frame-dependent preferences and designs an extensive form with a frame at each stage. This allows the principal to circumvent incentive compatibility constraints by inducing dynamically inconsistent choices of the sophisticated agent. We show that a vector of contracts can be implemented if and only if it can be implemented using a canonical extensive form, which has a simple high–low–high structure using only three stages and the two highest frames, and employs unchosen decoy contracts to deter deviations. We then turn to the study of optimal contracts in the context of the classic monopolistic screening problem and establish the existence of a canonical optimal mechanism, even though our implementability result does not directly apply. In the presence of naive types, the principal can perfectly screen by cognitive type and extract full surplus from naifs.