原文標(biāo)題：
The baby-bust economy
Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences
低生育經(jīng)濟
全球生育率暴跌，產(chǎn)生了深刻的經(jīng)濟影響

What might change the world’s dire demographic trajectory?
怎樣才能改變世界低迷的人口曲線呢？

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IN THE ROUGHLY 250 years since the Industrial Revolution the world’s population, like its wealth, has exploded.
自工業(yè)革命以來250年左右的時間里，世界人口和財富呈爆炸性增長。

Before the end of this century, however, the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death.
然而，在本世紀(jì)末之前，地球上的人口數(shù)量可能會出現(xiàn)自黑死病以來的首次下降。

The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing.
其根本原因不是死亡人數(shù)激增，而是出生人數(shù)銳減。在世界大部分地區(qū)，生育率（即每個婦女的平均生育數(shù)量）正在急劇下降。

Although the trend may be familiar, its extent and its consequences are not.
盡管人們對這一趨勢可能習(xí)以為常，但對其程度和影響并不了解。

Even as artificial intelligence (AI) leads to surging optimism in some quarters, the baby bust hangs over the future of the world economy.
即使人工智能（AI）在一些圈子里引發(fā)了高漲的樂觀情緒，但人口對全球未來經(jīng)濟仍存在巨大的不確定性影響。

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In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling.

2000年，世界的生育率為每名婦女生2.7個孩子，遠遠高于人口穩(wěn)定的 “更替率” 2.1。今天，它只有2.3，且還在下降。

The largest 15 countries by GDP all have a fertility rate below the replacement rate. That includes America and much of the rich world, but also China and India, neither of which together account for more than a third of the global population.
GDP最高的15個國家的出生率都低于更替率。這些國家包括美國和大部分發(fā)達國家，也包括中國和印度，這兩國人口總和占全球人口的1/3以上。

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The result is that in much of the world the patter of tiny feet is being drowned out by the clatter of walking sticks.

其結(jié)果是，在世界大部分地區(qū)，嬰兒的嗒嗒腳步聲被老人的拐杖咔噠聲淹沒了。

The prime examples of ageing countries are no longer just Japan and Italy but also include Brazil, Mexico and Thailand.

老齡化的主要國家不再僅僅包括日本和意大利，還包括巴西、墨西哥和泰國。

By 2030 more than half the inhabitants of East and South-East Asia will be over 40. As the old die and are not fully replaced, populations are likely to shrink.

到2030年，東亞和東南亞的一半以上的居民將超過40歲。由于老年人的死亡人數(shù)不能被新生兒數(shù)量取代，預(yù)計人口將縮減。

Outside Africa, the world’s population is forecast to peak in the 2050s and end the century smaller than it is today. Even in Africa, the fertility rate is falling fast.
在非洲之外，世界人口預(yù)計將在2050年代達到峰值，且本世紀(jì)末人口數(shù)量將低于當(dāng)前水平。即使在非洲，生育率也在迅速下降。

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Whatever some environmentalists say, a shrinking population creates problems.

不管一些環(huán)保主義者怎么說，人口的萎縮一定會帶來問題。

The world is not close to full and the economic difficulties resulting from fewer young people are many.

世界還沒有接近飽和，年輕人數(shù)量減少會導(dǎo)致各種經(jīng)濟困難。

The obvious one is that it is getting harder to support the world’s pensioners.

一個明顯的例子是，養(yǎng)活世界上的退休人員將變得越來越困難。

Retired folk draw on the output of the working-aged, either through the state, which levies taxes on workers to pay public pensions, or by cashing in savings to buy goods and services or because relatives provide care unpaid.

退休人員依賴適齡工作者的勞動產(chǎn)出，要么是通過國家向工作者征稅來支付公共養(yǎng)老金，要么取出存款來購買商品和服務(wù)，或者有親屬提供無償護理。

But whereas the rich world currently has around three people between 20 and 64 years old for everyone over 65, by 2050 it will have less than two.

目前在發(fā)達國家，大約有三個20-64歲的中青年人養(yǎng)著一個65歲以上的老年人，而到2050年，這個數(shù)字低于兩個。

The implications are higher taxes, later retirements, lower real returns for savers and, possibly, government budget crises.
其影響是導(dǎo)致更高的稅收、更晚的退休年齡、更低的儲蓄實際回報率，以及潛在的政府預(yù)算危機。

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Low ratios of workers to pensioners are only one problem stemming from collapsing fertility.

勞動工作者與退休人員比例過低只是生育率下降造成的問題之一。

Younger people have more of what psychologists call “fluid intelligence”, the ability to think creatively so as to solve problems in entirely new ways .
年輕人擁有更多心理學(xué)家所謂的 "流體智力"，即創(chuàng)造性思維以及用全新方式解決問題的能力。

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This youthful dynamism complements the accumulated knowledge of older workers. It also brings change.

年輕人的活力與老年人積累的知識相輔相成。它也帶來了變化。

Patents filed by the youngest inventors are much more likely to cover breakthrough innovations.

年輕發(fā)明家申請的專利更有可能涵蓋顛覆性創(chuàng)新。

Older countries—and, it turns out, their young people—are less enterprising and less comfortable taking risks.

老齡化國家--事實證明，他們的年輕人--不太有進取心，也不太愿意承擔(dān)風(fēng)險。

Elderly electorates ossify politics, too. Because the old benefit less than the young when economies grow, they have proved less keen on pro-growth policies, especially housebuilding.

老年選民也使政治僵化。因為當(dāng)經(jīng)濟增長時，老年人比年輕人受益更少，所以他們對促進增長的政策（尤其是房屋建設(shè)）并不熱衷。

Creative destruction is likely to be rarer in ageing societies, suppressing productivity growth in ways that compound into an enormous missed opportunity.
在老齡化社會中，顛覆性創(chuàng)新可能會更少，這抑制了生產(chǎn)力的增長，從而導(dǎo)致錯過巨大機會。

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All things considered, it is tempting to cast low fertility rates as a crisis to be solved.

綜合考慮，很容易把低生育率視為一種需要解決的危機。

Many of its underlying causes, though, are in themselves welcome. As people have become richer they have tended to have fewer children.

不過，它的許多潛在原因本身是受歡迎的。人們越富有，新生兒就越少。

Today they face different trade-offs between work and family, and these are mostly better ones.

如今，他們在工作和家庭之間面臨著不同的權(quán)衡選擇，而其中大多是更好的選擇。

The populist conservatives who claim low fertility is a sign of society’s failure and call for a return to traditional family values are wrong.

那些聲稱低生育率是社會失敗的標(biāo)志，并呼吁恢復(fù)傳統(tǒng)家庭價值觀的民粹主義保守派是錯誤的。

More choice is a good thing, and no one owes it to others to bring up children.
更多的選擇是一件好事，人家沒有義務(wù)為了他人來養(yǎng)育孩子。

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Liberals’ impulse to encourage more immigration is more noble. But it, too, is a misdiagnosis.

自由主義者推動和鼓勵更多移民的做法更為崇高。但是，這也是一種誤判。

Immigration in the rich world today is at a record high, helping individual countries tackle worker shortages.

今天，發(fā)達國家的移民人數(shù)創(chuàng)下歷史新高，幫助個別國家解決勞動力短缺問題。

But the global nature of the fertility slump means that, by the middle of the century, the world is likely to face a dearth of young educated workers unless something changes.
但是，全球生育率下降意味著，除非有什么改變，否則到本世紀(jì)中葉，全世界可能會面臨年輕的、受過良好教育勞動力的短缺問題。

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What might that be? People often tell pollsters they want more children than they have.

今后會有哪些變化呢？人們經(jīng)常告訴民意調(diào)查員，他們想要的子女比他們實際擁有的要多。

This gap between aspiration and reality could be in part because would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment.

這種愿望和現(xiàn)實之間的差距，部分原因是準(zhǔn)父母——他們實際上是在為將來沒有孩子的退休人員提供補貼--負(fù)擔(dān)不起更多的孩子，或者是因為其他政策的失敗，如住房短缺或生育治療不足。

Yet even if these are fixed, economic development is still likely to lead to a fall in fertility below the replacement rate.

然而，即使這些問題得到解決，經(jīng)濟發(fā)展仍有可能導(dǎo)致生育率下降到替代率以下。

Pro-family policies have a disappointing record. Singapore offers lavish grants, tax rebates and child-care subsidies—but has a fertility rate of 1.0.
崇尚家庭的政策有一個失敗案例。那就是新加坡提供了豐厚的補助金、退稅和兒童保育補貼，但其生育率卻只有1.0。

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Unleashing the potential of the world’s poor would ease the shortage of educated young workers without more births.

在不增加出生率的情況下，釋放世界貧困人口的潛力將緩解受過良好教育年輕勞動者短缺的問題。

Two-thirds of 25- to 34-year-olds in India have not completed upper secondary education. Africa’s pool of young people will continue to grow for decades.

印度有三分之二25-34歲的人沒有完成高中教育。非洲的年輕人群體將在幾十年內(nèi)繼續(xù)增長。

Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also cast more young migrants as innovators in otherwise-stagnant economies.

提高他們的技能本身是可取的，而且還可能使更多的年輕人移民到停滯不前的國家，成為那里的創(chuàng)新者。

Yet encouraging development is hard—and the sooner places get rich, the sooner they get old.

然而，鼓勵發(fā)展也很困難——并且，一個地方越早富裕起來，就會越早進入老齡社會。

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Eventually, therefore, the world will have to make do with fewer youngsters—and perhaps with a shrinking population.

因此，最終，世界將不得不接受年輕人越來越少的事實——及全球總?cè)丝跍p少的事實。

With that in mind, recent advances in AI could not have come at a better time. An über-productive AI-infused economy might find it easy to support a greater number of retired people.

考慮到這一點，最近人工智能推陳出新來得正是時候。人工智能驅(qū)動的超高生產(chǎn)力經(jīng)濟可能使照顧更多退休人員變得容易。

Eventually AI may be able to generate ideas by itself, reducing the need for human intelligence. Combined with robotics, AI may also make caring for the elderly less labour-intensive. Such innovations will certainly be in high demand.

最終，人工智能可能會自己產(chǎn)生想法，減少對人類智能的需求。與機器人技術(shù)相結(jié)合，人工智能可以使照顧老人的勞動密集度降低。這類創(chuàng)新肯定會有很大的市場需求。

If technology does allow humanity to overcome the baby bust, it will fit the historical pattern.

如果技術(shù)確實能幫助人類解決低生育難題，那是符合歷史規(guī)律的。

Unexpected productivity advances meant that demographic time-bombs, such as the mass starvation predicted by Thomas Malthus in the 18th century, failed to detonate.

超出預(yù)期的生產(chǎn)力進步意味著人口定時炸彈并未引爆。如托馬斯.馬爾薩斯在18世紀(jì)預(yù)測的大饑餓并未出現(xiàn)。

Fewer babies means less human genius. But that might be a problem human genius can fix.
出生率更少意味著人類天才更少。但或許只有人類天才才能解決這個問題吧。

（恭喜讀完，本篇英語詞匯量1088左右,有刪減）
原文出自：2023年6月3日《The Economist》Leaders版塊

精讀筆記來源于：自由英語之路
本文翻譯整理: Irene本文編輯校對: Irene
僅供個人英語學(xué)習(xí)交流使用。

【補充資料】（來自于網(wǎng)絡(luò)）
工業(yè)革命Industrial Revolution指的是從18世紀(jì)末到19世紀(jì)中葉，歐洲和北美等地區(qū)發(fā)生的一場經(jīng)濟、社會、人口和技術(shù)的深刻變革。這場變革的標(biāo)志是機器生產(chǎn)的興起和工業(yè)化的加速，它最開始出現(xiàn)在英國，并在19世紀(jì)逐漸擴展到歐洲和美國。這一時期，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)方式從手工業(yè)和家庭手工業(yè)逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)闄C械化的大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)，這種生產(chǎn)方式的優(yōu)勢在于效率和生產(chǎn)力的大幅提升。

黑死病Black Death，又稱鼠疫或瘟疫，是歐洲歷史上最致命的疾病之一。該病最早在14世紀(jì)中期從中亞地區(qū)傳入歐洲，隨后在歐洲迅速傳播，導(dǎo)致了大量人口死亡和社會動蕩。黑死病的主要癥狀是高熱、淋巴結(jié)腫脹和皮膚上出現(xiàn)黑色病斑。傳播途徑主要是通過老鼠和跳蚤，而且傳染力非常強。在歐洲流行的期間，黑死病的死亡率非常高，甚至高達70%以上。這一疫情不僅造成了人口大量減少，而且對歐洲社會和經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生了深遠的影響。

流體智力Fluid Intelligence是指人在解決新問題、應(yīng)對新情境時所需要的智力能力。它是人類智力的一個重要組成部分，與生物學(xué)、神經(jīng)科學(xué)、心理學(xué)等學(xué)科有著密切關(guān)系。流體智力與固定智力是不同的。固定智力是指人們在學(xué)習(xí)和經(jīng)驗積累過程中獲得的知識、技能和經(jīng)驗。而流體智力則是人們通過分析、推理、抽象思維等方式，快速處理新的信息和新的情境的能力。

托馬斯·羅伯特·馬爾薩斯（Thomas Robert Malthus，1766年2月13日－1834年12月23日）是18世紀(jì)末19世紀(jì)初英國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家、政治家、人口學(xué)家。他的代表作《人口原理》提出了著名的“人口爆炸論”，認(rèn)為人口的增長速度將超過糧食的增長速度，導(dǎo)致人口貧困和社會災(zāi)難，因此提出應(yīng)該采取措施限制人口的增長，以避免這種危機的發(fā)生。其中馬爾薩斯陷阱是指一個國家或地區(qū)在人口增長過快的情況下，由于食物生產(chǎn)無法跟上人口增長的速度，導(dǎo)致人均糧食供應(yīng)不足，從而引發(fā)貧困、饑荒和人口死亡的一種危機。

生育治療Fertility Treatment是指一系列醫(yī)療技術(shù)和手段，旨在幫助那些因為生理或生化原因無法自然受孕的夫婦實現(xiàn)生育。這些治療方法包括：生殖藥物治療，人工授精，體外受精（IVF），胚胎移植，卵子或精子移植，代孕，以及使用捐贈的卵子或精子等方法。生育治療通常由專門的生殖醫(yī)生或生殖科醫(yī)生進行，旨在提高夫婦受孕的成功率。

【重點句子】（3個）
The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing.
其根本原因不是死亡人數(shù)激增，而是出生人數(shù)銳減。在世界大部分地區(qū)，生育率（即每個婦女的平均生育數(shù)量）正在急劇下降。

The implications are higher taxes, later retirements, lower real returns for savers and, possibly, government budget crises.
其影響是導(dǎo)致更高的稅收、更晚的退休年齡、更低的儲蓄實際回報率，以及潛在的政府預(yù)算危機。

Creative destruction is likely to be rarer in ageing societies, suppressing productivity growth in ways that compound into an enormous missed opportunity. ?在老齡化社會中，顛覆性創(chuàng)新可能會更少，這抑制了生產(chǎn)力的增長，從而導(dǎo)致錯過巨大機會。