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每天一篇經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人 | Twitter 推特(2022年第94期)

2022-11-10 08:25 作者:薈呀薈學(xué)習(xí)  | 我要投稿


Twitter is no longer a public company, but it is being run in a more public way than ever before. Elon Musk, who took the social network private on October 27th at a cost of $44bn and immediately installed himself as its temporary chief executive, has been developing his plans for the firm through the medium of tweets at all times of day and night.

推特不再是一家上市公司,但它的運(yùn)營(yíng)方式比以往任何時(shí)候都更加公開。10月27日,埃隆·馬斯克以440億美元的價(jià)格將這家社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司私有化,并立即就任其臨時(shí)首席執(zhí)行官。他一直在通過推特媒介,不分晝夜地為公司制定計(jì)劃。



Mr Musk, who said he was buying Twitter to protect free speech in “the de facto public town square”, tweeted on his first full day in charge that the company would set up a “content moderation council”. Outsourcing moderation dilemmas to an independent board, as Facebook has since 2020, would be no bad thing. One of the chief concerns about Mr Musk’s ownership of Twitter is that the platform could be leant on by anyone with leverage over his other, larger businesses. Tesla, Mr Musk’s carmaker (and main source of wealth), has a factory in Shanghai and last year made a quarter of its revenue in China, whose public squares are hardly free.

馬斯克表示,他收購(gòu)?fù)铺厥菫榱吮Wo(hù)“事實(shí)上的公共城市廣場(chǎng)”的言論自由。他在上任第一天就發(fā)推文稱,該公司將成立一個(gè)“內(nèi)容審核委員會(huì)”。就像Facebook自2020年以來所做的那樣,將審核困境外包給獨(dú)立董事會(huì)并非壞事。人們對(duì)馬斯克擁有推特的主要擔(dān)憂之一是,任何對(duì)他的其他更大業(yè)務(wù)有影響力的人都可能利用這個(gè)平臺(tái)。馬斯克的汽車制造商(也是主要的財(cái)富來源)特斯拉(Tesla)在上海有一家工廠,去年有四分之一的收入來自中國(guó),而中國(guó)的公共廣場(chǎng)幾乎沒有免費(fèi)的。



Yet the focus of Mr Musk’s first week in charge was not moderation but money. His acquisition was funded with about $13bn of debt. Interest rates are rising and the ad market, which provides nearly all of Twitter’s revenue, is falling. Some advertisers are especially nervous of the new Musk-owned Twitter: ipg Mediabrands, a giant media buyer, recommended on October 31st that clients pause their spending on Twitter while the dust settled.

然而,馬斯克上任第一周的重點(diǎn)不是審核,而是錢。收購(gòu)的資金來自約130億美元的債務(wù)。利率在上升,為推特提供幾乎全部收入的廣告市場(chǎng)也在下滑。一些廣告主對(duì)馬斯克旗下的新推特特別緊張: 媒體收購(gòu)巨頭IPG Mediabrands在10月31日建議客戶在塵埃落定前暫停在推特上的支出。



To cut costs Mr Musk appears to have started a round of lay-offs, which is probably overdue. Last year Twitter had 1.5 employees for every $1m in revenue, compared with 0.6 at Meta, Facebook’s owner. At the same time he hopes to bring in more users with features including the resurrection of Vine, a decade-old app that beat TikTok to the short-video craze but which Twitter allowed to wither.

為了削減成本,馬斯克似乎已經(jīng)開始了一輪裁員,而這一輪裁員可能早就應(yīng)該進(jìn)行了。去年,推特每100萬美元收入就有1.5名員工,相比之下,F(xiàn)acebook的母公司Meta只有0.6名員工。與此同時(shí),他希望通過Vine的復(fù)興等功能吸引更多用戶。Vine是一款已有十年歷史的應(yīng)用,在短視頻熱潮中擊敗了TikTok,但推特卻任由其衰落了。



The most radical plan, though, is to boost revenues by weaning Twitter partially off ads and onto subscriptions. Users will be able to pay $8 a month (or another amount depending on their whereabouts, see chart) to see half as many ads, post long audio and video clips and get priority for their own tweets in other people’s replies and search results.

然而,最激進(jìn)的計(jì)劃是讓推特?cái)[脫部分廣告業(yè)務(wù),并走向訂閱業(yè)務(wù)來增加收入。用戶將可以每月支付8美元(或其他金額,取決于他們的位置,見圖表),觀看半數(shù)的廣告,發(fā)布長(zhǎng)音頻和視頻剪輯,并在其他人的回復(fù)和搜索結(jié)果中提高自己的推文的優(yōu)先級(jí)。



Mr Musk characterised this as a democratic alternative to the “l(fā)ords & peasants system”, in which Twitter awards blue badges verifying the identity of “notable” tweeters. Increasing the number of verified users may help reduce spam. But prioritising tweets that are paid for, over ones that are good, may worsen the user experience. And charging audiences risks driving them to other social platforms that are free. As Stephen King, a blue-badged novelist, tweeted in an exchange with Mr Musk: “Fuck that, they should pay me.”

馬斯克稱這是“領(lǐng)主與農(nóng)民制度”的民主替代。在“領(lǐng)主與農(nóng)民制度”中,推特會(huì)頒發(fā)藍(lán)色徽章,以核實(shí)“知名”推特用戶的身份。增加認(rèn)證用戶的數(shù)量可能有助于減少垃圾郵件。但是,將付費(fèi)推文置于優(yōu)質(zhì)推文之上,可能會(huì)惡化用戶體驗(yàn)。向觀眾收費(fèi)可能會(huì)把他們推到其他免費(fèi)的社交平臺(tái)上。正如有藍(lán)色徽章的小說家史蒂芬?金在與馬斯克的交流中發(fā)推文所說:“ 扯淡,他們應(yīng)該付錢給我?!?/p>



Subscriptions may kick off another argument. Among users who subscribe via the Twitter app, a cut of ongoing monthly fees will go to the app store in question: 15% in the case of Google and up to 30% in the case of Apple. Companies that rely on subscriptions, like Spotify, or in-app purchases, like Epic Games, have long complained about this app-store tax. In Mr Musk, Apple and Google face another opponent—one who is armed with the world’s loudest megaphone.

訂閱可能會(huì)引發(fā)另一場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論。在通過推特app訂閱的用戶中,每月持續(xù)費(fèi)用的一部分分成將流向相關(guān)應(yīng)用商店: 谷歌的提成為15%,蘋果的提成最高為30%。依賴訂閱的公司,如Spotify,或依賴應(yīng)用內(nèi)購(gòu)買的公司,如Epic Games,其長(zhǎng)期以來一直抱怨這種應(yīng)用商店稅。在馬斯克身上,蘋果和谷歌面臨著另一個(gè)對(duì)手——一個(gè)手持世界上最響亮的擴(kuò)音器的人。

每天一篇經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人 | Twitter 推特(2022年第94期)的評(píng)論 (共 條)

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