Journal of Economic Perspectives 2023年第1期

Vol. 37 No. 1 Winter 2023

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.Economic Sanctions: Evolution, Consequences, and Challenges

經(jīng)濟制裁:演變、后果和挑戰(zhàn)

T. Clifton?Morgan,?Constantinos?Syropoulos?and?Yoto V.?Yotov

Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, we examine the evolution of economic sanctions in the post-World War II era and reflect on the lessons that could be drawn from their features and patterns of use. We observe that, during this time, there has been a remarkable increase in the use of sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy. We classify this period into four 'eras' and discuss, in this context, how the evolution of sanctions may be linked to salient features of the contemporaneous international political and economic orders. Our review of the related literatures in economics and political science suggests, among other things, that our understanding of sanction processes could be significantly advanced by marrying these perspectives. We conclude by identifying several questions and challenges, and by discussing how interdisciplinary research could address them.

我們以跨學科的視角，研究了第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟制裁的演變，并反思了可以從其特點和使用模式中汲取的教訓。我們注意到，在這段時間內(nèi)，利用制裁作為外交政策工具的情況顯著增加。我們將這一時期分為四個“時代”，并在此背景下討論制裁的演變?nèi)绾闻c同時代國際政治和經(jīng)濟秩序的顯著特征聯(lián)系起來。我們對經(jīng)濟學和政治學相關(guān)文獻的回顧表明，通過將這些觀點結(jié)合起來，我們對制裁過程的理解可能會大大提高。最后，我們確定了幾個問題和挑戰(zhàn)，并討論了跨學科研究如何解決這些問題。

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2.Financial Sanctions, SWIFT, and the Architecture of the International Payment System

金融制裁、SWIFT和國際支付系統(tǒng)架構(gòu)

Marco?Cipriani,?Linda S.?Goldberg?and?Gabriele?La Spada

Financial sanctions, alongside economic sanctions, are components of the toolkit used by governments as part of international diplomacy. The use of sanctions, especially financial, has increased over the last 70 years. Financial sanctions have been particularly important whenever the goals of the sanctioning countries were related to democracy and human rights. Financial sanctions restrict entities—countries, businesses, or even individuals—from purchasing or selling financial assets, or from accessing custodial or other financial services. They can be imposed on a sanctioned entity's ability to access the infrastructures that are in place to execute international payments, irrespective of whether such payments underpin financial or real activity. This article explains how financial sanctions can be designed to limit access to the international payment system and, in particular, the SWIFT network, and provides some recent examples.

金融制裁和經(jīng)濟制裁都是各國政府作為國際外交手段的組成部分。過去70年來，制裁，特別是金融制裁的使用有所增加。每當制裁國家的目標涉及民主和人權(quán)時，金融制裁就特別重要。金融制裁限制實體(國家、企業(yè)甚至個人)購買或出售金融資產(chǎn)，或獲得托管或其他金融服務。制裁可以針對一個受制裁實體使用為執(zhí)行國際支付而設立的基礎設施的能力，而不管這些支付是支撐金融活動還是實際活動。本文解釋了如何設計金融制裁來限制使用國際支付系統(tǒng)，特別是SWIFT網(wǎng)絡，并提供了一些最近的例子。

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3.Monetary Policy When the Central Bank Shapes Financial-Market Sentiment

Anil K?Kashyap?and?Jeremy C.?Stein

Recent research has found that monetary policy works in part by influencing the risk premiums on both traded financial-market securities and intermediated loans. Research has also shown that when risk premiums are compressed, there is an increased likelihood of a reversal that damages the credit-supply mechanism and the real economy. Together these effects create an intertemporal tradeoff for monetary policy, as stimulating the economy today can sow the seeds of a future downturn that might be difficult to offset. We draw out some implications of this tradeoff for the conduct of monetary policy.

最近的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，貨幣政策在一定程度上是通過影響交易金融市場證券和中介貸款的風險溢價來發(fā)揮作用的。研究還表明，當風險溢價被壓縮時，出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)的可能性就會增加，從而損害信貸供應機制和實體經(jīng)濟。這些影響加在一起，造成了貨幣政策的跨期權(quán)衡，因為今天刺激經(jīng)濟可能會播下未來可能難以抵消的衰退的種子。我們得出了這種權(quán)衡對貨幣政策實施的一些影響。

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5.Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy

風險偏好與貨幣政策的風險承擔渠道

Michael D.?Bauer,?Ben S.?Bernanke?and?Eric?Milstein

Monetary policy affects financial markets and the broader economy in part by changing the risk appetite of investors. This article provides new evidence for this so-called risk-taking channel of monetary policy by revisiting and extending event-study analysis of Federal Open Market Committee announcements. We document significant effects of unexpected monetary policy changes on risk indicators drawn from equity, fixed-income, credit, and foreign exchange markets. We develop a new index of risk appetite based on the common component of these indicators. Surprise monetary easing leads to strong and persistent increases in our index, and vice versa for tightening surprises, consistent with the view that monetary policy affects asset prices in large part through its effects on risk appetite. We discuss the implications of the risk-taking channel for monetary policy transmission, optimal monetary policy, and financial stability.

貨幣政策會部分通過改變投資者的風險偏好來影響金融市場和更廣泛的經(jīng)濟。本文通過回顧和擴展聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會公告的事件研究分析，為這種所謂的貨幣政策冒險通道提供了新的證據(jù)。我們記錄了意外貨幣政策變化對風險指標的顯著影響，這些指標來自股票、固定收益、信貸和外匯市場?；谶@些指標的共同組成部分，我們開發(fā)了一個新的風險偏好指數(shù)。意外的貨幣寬松會導致我們的指數(shù)強勁而持續(xù)地上升，而意外的收緊也會導致指數(shù)強勁而持續(xù)地上升，這與貨幣政策在很大程度上通過其對風險偏好的影響來影響資產(chǎn)價格的觀點一致。我們討論了風險承擔渠道對貨幣政策傳導、最優(yōu)貨幣政策和金融穩(wěn)定的影響。

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6.Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965–2022

軟著陸和硬著陸:美聯(lián)儲，1965-2022

Alan S.?Blinder

"Soft landings," that is, cases in which the central bank tightens monetary policy to fight inflation but does not cause a recession (which would be a "hard landing"), are thought to be difficult to achieve and extremely rare. According to the conventional wisdom, the Federal Reserve has managed to achieve only one soft landing in the past 60 years—in 1994–1995. This paper studies the eleven episodes of monetary policy tightening by the Fed since 1965, and concludes that the central bank has a better record than that—that as long as the criteria for softness are not too stringent, and Fed was actually trying to land the economy softly, the Fed has succeeded several times. Achieving a soft landing, however, requires both skill in managing monetary policy and the absence of adverse external shocks.

“軟著陸”，即央行收緊貨幣政策以抗擊通脹，但不會導致經(jīng)濟衰退(也就是“硬著陸”)，被認為很難實現(xiàn)，而且極其罕見。根據(jù)傳統(tǒng)觀點，美聯(lián)儲在過去60年里只成功實現(xiàn)了一次軟著陸——1994-1995年。本文研究了美聯(lián)儲自1965年以來的11次緊縮貨幣政策，得出的結(jié)論是，中央銀行的記錄比這要好——只要軟性的標準不是太嚴格，而且美聯(lián)儲實際上是在努力讓經(jīng)濟軟性著陸，美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)成功了幾次。然而，實現(xiàn)軟著陸既需要管理貨幣政策的技巧，也需要避免不利的外部沖擊。

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7.Monetary Policy and Inequality

Alisdair?McKay?and?Christian K.?Wolf

貨幣政策與不平等

We ask three questions about the connection between monetary policy and inequality. First, does monetary policy affect inequality? While different households respond to changes in monetary policy for different reasons, we argue that the overall consumption effects are relatively evenly distributed across households. Second, does household heterogeneity change our understanding of monetary policy transmission? A more careful account of microeconomic consumption behavior materially alters our understanding of transmission channels, but has rather limited effect on our general view of the aggregate effects of monetary policy. Third, does inequality affect the optimal conduct of monetary policy? Since monetary policy is a rather blunt distributional tool, we argue that even a central bank with an explicit distributional mandate would not deviate much from conventional policy prescriptions.

我們就貨幣政策與不平等之間的關(guān)系提出三個問題。首先，貨幣政策會影響不平等嗎?雖然不同家庭對貨幣政策變化的反應出于不同的原因，但我們認為，整體消費效應在家庭之間的分布相對平均。第二，家庭異質(zhì)性是否改變了我們對貨幣政策傳導的理解?對微觀經(jīng)濟消費行為的更仔細的描述在很大程度上改變了我們對傳導渠道的理解，但對我們對貨幣政策總體效應的總體看法影響有限。第三，不平等是否會影響貨幣政策的最優(yōu)行為?由于貨幣政策是一種相當生硬的分配工具，我們認為，即使是具有明確分配任務的央行，也不會太偏離傳統(tǒng)的政策處方。

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9.Unraveling the Hispanic Health Paradox

揭示拉美裔健康悖論

José?Fernandez,?Mónica?García-Pérez?and?Sandra?Orozco-Aleman

In 2019, Hispanics in the US had a life expectancy advantage of 3.0 years and 7.1 years over non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks, respectively, despite having real-household income values 26 percentage points lower than Non-Hispanic White households. Hispanics appear to have equal or even better health outcomes relative to non-Hispanic Whites across various health measures. This is known as the Hispanic health paradox. This paper underscores the importance of disaggregating Hispanics by ancestry and age profile when discussing the paradox across key health outcomes. It also provides an overview of the leading explanations, such as the salmon bias and the healthy immigrant effect. Further, it highlights the role of healthcare access and usage in this discussion. Ignoring these sources of bias have important consequences for how morbidity and mortality among Hispanics are measured within widely used national datasets.

2019年，美國西班牙裔家庭的實際收入比非西班牙裔白人家庭低26個百分點，但其預期壽命比非西班牙裔白人家庭和非西班牙裔黑人家庭分別高出3.0歲和7.1歲。在各種健康指標中，西班牙裔似乎與非西班牙裔白人的健康結(jié)果相同，甚至更好。這就是著名的西班牙裔健康悖論。本文強調(diào)了在討論關(guān)鍵健康結(jié)果的悖論時，按血統(tǒng)和年齡資料分解西班牙裔的重要性。它還提供了主要解釋的概述，如鮭魚偏見和健康移民效應。此外，它還強調(diào)了醫(yī)療保健訪問和使用在本討論中的作用。忽略這些偏差來源，會對如何在廣泛使用的國家數(shù)據(jù)集中測量西班牙裔的發(fā)病率和死亡率產(chǎn)生重要影響。

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10.Hispanic Americans in the Labor Market: Patterns over Time and across Generations

拉美裔美國人在勞動力市場:隨著時間和世代的模式

Francisca M.?Antman,?Brian?Duncan?and?Stephen J.?Trejo

This article reviews evidence on the labor market performance of Hispanics in the United States, with a particular focus on the US-born segment of this population. After discussing critical issues that arise in the US data sources commonly used to study Hispanics, we document how Hispanics currently compare with other Americans in terms of education, earnings, and labor supply, and then we discuss long-term trends in these outcomes. Relative to non-Hispanic Whites, US-born Hispanics from most national origin groups possess sizeable deficits in earnings, which in large part reflect corresponding educational deficits. Over time, rates of high school completion by US-born Hispanics have almost converged to those of non-Hispanic Whites, but the large Hispanic deficits in college completion have instead widened. Finally, from the perspective of immigrant generations, Hispanics experience substantial improvements in education and earnings between first-generation immigrants and the second-generation consisting of the US-born children of immigrants. Continued progress beyond the second generation is obscured by measurement issues arising from high rates of Hispanic intermarriage and the fact that later-generation descendants of Hispanic immigrants often do not self-identify as Hispanic when they come from families with mixed ethnic origins.

本文回顧了美國拉美裔勞動力市場表現(xiàn)的證據(jù)，特別關(guān)注在美國出生的這部分人口。在討論了通常用于研究西班牙裔的美國數(shù)據(jù)源中出現(xiàn)的關(guān)鍵問題后，我們記錄了西班牙裔目前在教育、收入和勞動力供應方面與其他美國人的比較情況，然后我們討論了這些結(jié)果的長期趨勢。相對于非西班牙裔白人，美國出生的大多數(shù)拉美裔族群在收入上存在相當大的赤字，這在很大程度上反映了相應的教育赤字。隨著時間的推移，在美國出生的西班牙裔高中完成率幾乎與非西班牙裔白人持平，但西班牙裔在大學完成率方面的巨大差距反而擴大了。最后，從移民世代的角度來看，在第一代移民和由在美國出生的移民子女組成的第二代移民之間，西班牙裔在教育和收入方面有了長足的進步。由于西班牙裔異族通婚率高，以及西班牙裔移民的后代在來自不同種族混合的家庭時往往不認為自己是西班牙裔這一事實，使得第二代人之后的持續(xù)進步變得模糊不清。

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11.US Immigration from Latin America in Historical Perspective

從歷史角度看拉丁美洲移民美國

Gordon?Hanson,?Pia?Orrenius?and?Madeline?Zavodny

The share of US residents who were born in Latin America and the Caribbean plateaued recently, after a half century of rapid growth. Our review of the evidence on the US immigration wave from the region suggests that it bears many similarities to the major immigration waves of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, that the demographic and economic forces behind Latin American migrant inflows appear to have weakened across most sending countries, and that a continued slowdown of immigration from Latin America post-pandemic has the potential to disrupt labor-intensive sectors in many US regional labor markets.

在經(jīng)歷了半個世紀的快速增長后，出生在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區(qū)的美國居民比例最近趨于穩(wěn)定。我們對來自該地區(qū)的美國移民浪潮的證據(jù)的審查表明，它與19世紀和20世紀初的主要移民浪潮有許多相似之處，在大多數(shù)來源國，拉丁美洲移民流入背后的人口和經(jīng)濟力量似乎已經(jīng)減弱，大流行后來自拉丁美洲的移民的持續(xù)放緩有可能擾亂美國許多地區(qū)勞動力市場的勞動密集型部門。