Deathwatch

觀命術

Brazil has the power to save Earth’s greatest rainforest—or destroy it

巴西有能力拯救或摧毀地球上最大的雨林

Although its cradle is the sparsely wooded savannah, humankind has long looked to forests for food, fuel, timber and sublime inspiration. Still a livelihood for 1.5bn people, forests maintain local and regional ecosystems and, for the other 6.2bn, provide a—fragile and creaking—bu?er against climate change. Now droughts, wild?res and other human-induced changes are compounding the damage from chainsaws. In the tropics, which contain half of the world’s forest biomass, tree-cover loss has accelerated by two-thirds since 2015; if it were a country, the shrinkage would make the tropical rainforest the world’s third biggest carbon-dioxide emitter, after China and America.

盡管它的發(fā)源地是樹木稀少的大草原，但人類長期以來一直從森林中尋找食物、燃料、木材和崇高的靈感。森林仍然是15億人的生計，維持著當?shù)睾偷貐^(qū)的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，同時也扮演著為另外62億人應對氣候變化提供的脆弱且虛弱的緩沖裝置。如今，干旱、野火和其他人為因素導致的改變正在使鏈鋸造成的破壞變得更加嚴重。熱帶地區(qū)的森林生物量占全球的一半，自2015年以來，森林覆蓋率的下降速度加快了三分之二;如果將森林區(qū)域比作一個國家，那么森林覆蓋率的減少將使得這個熱帶雨林將成為世界上第三大二氧化碳排放國，僅次于中國和美國。

詞匯

Cradle/搖籃；發(fā)源地

Savannah/熱帶和亞熱帶草原

Sublime/莊嚴的；令人崇敬的

Fragile/ ?脆的；易碎的

Creaking/（過勞或緊張）顯得虛弱

Compound/混合；惡化，加重

Tropics/熱帶地區(qū)

Biomass/（單位面積或體積內的）[生態(tài)] 生物量

Shrinkage/收縮；減低

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Nowhere are the stakes higher than in the Amazon basin— and not just because it contains 40% of Earth’s rainforests and harbours 10-15% of the world’s terrestrial species. South America’s natural wonder may be perilously close to the tipping-point beyond which its gradual transformation into something closer to steppe cannot be stopped or reversed, even if people lay down their axes. Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, is hastening the process—in the name, he claims, of development. The ecological collapse his policies may precipitate would be felt most acutely within his country’s borders, which encircle 80% of the basin— but would go far beyond them, too. It must be averted.

沒有什么地方比亞馬遜盆地把持的籌碼更大，不僅僅是因為它囊括了地球上40%的雨林以及包含了世界上10-15%的陸地物種。南美洲的自然奇觀可能正危險地接近轉折點，一旦超過臨界點，即使人們放下手中的斧頭，它逐漸向更接近草原模式的轉變的過程也無法停止或逆轉。巴西總統(tǒng)博爾索納羅正以發(fā)展的名義加速這一進程。他的政策而可能引發(fā)的猛然間的生態(tài)崩潰，在他的國家邊界內感受最為強烈，這個國家包圍了了亞馬遜盆地的80%的面積，甚至還遠高于這個數(shù)據(jù)。人們必須避免生態(tài)崩潰的情況發(fā)生。

詞匯

Basin/水池；流域；盆地

Harbour/為……提供住所（或動物棲息地）

Terrestrial/陸生的

Perilously/危機四伏地；充滿危險地

Precipitate/使（壞事等）突然發(fā)生

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Humans have been chipping away at the Amazon rainforest since they settled there well over ten millennia ago. Since the 1970s they have done so on an industrial scale. In the past 50 years Brazil has relinquished 17% of the forest’s original extent, more than the area of France, to road- and dambuilding, logging, mining, soyabean farming and cattle ranching. After a seven-year government e?ort to slow the destruction, it picked up in 2013 because of weakened enforcement and an amnesty for past deforestation. Recession and political crisis further pared back the government’s ability to enforce the rules.

自從一萬多年前人類在亞馬遜雨林定居以來，他們就一直在蠶食雨林。自上世紀70年代以來，它們一直在工業(yè)規(guī)模上這么做。在過去的50年里，巴西放手了17%的原始森林面積，這已是超過了法國的面積，用于道路建設、筑壩、伐木、采礦、大豆種植和畜牧業(yè)。政府花費了7年的努力來減緩破壞速度，但在2013年由于執(zhí)法力度減弱和對過去毀林行為的赦免，人們再度拿起破壞森林的斧子。經(jīng)濟衰退和政治危機進一步削弱了政府執(zhí)行規(guī)則的能力。

詞匯

Millennia/千年期

Relinquish/放棄；放手

Dam/水庫；水壩

amnesty/大赦，特赦

pare back/縮減；消減

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Now Mr Bolsonaro has gleefully taken a buzz saw to them. Although congress and the courts have blocked some of his e?orts to strip parts of the Amazon of their protected status, he has made it clear that rule-breakers have nothing to fear, despite the fact that he was elected to restore law and order. Because 70-80% of logging in the Amazon is illegal, the destruction has soared to record levels. Since he took o?ce in January, trees have been disappearing at a rate of over two Manhattans a week.

現(xiàn)在，博爾索納羅先生高興地把拿起鋸子的權利還給了他們。盡管國會和法院限制了他“開發(fā)”亞馬遜部分受保護地位地區(qū)的“行動”，但他明確表示，盡管他當選總統(tǒng)是為了恢復法律和秩序，可是違法者沒有什么可害怕的。由于亞馬遜地區(qū)70-80%的伐木是非法的，破壞已經(jīng)飆升到創(chuàng)紀錄的水平。自他1月份上任以來，樹木以每周超過兩個曼哈頓的速度消失。

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The Amazon is unusual in that it recycles much of its own water. As the forest shrivels, less recycling takes place. At a certain threshold, that causes more of the forest to wither so that, over a matter of decades, the process feeds on itself. Climate change is bringing the threshold closer every year as the forest heats up. Mr Bolsonaro is pushing it towards the edge. Pessimists fear that the cycle of runaway degradation may kick in when another 3-8% of the forest vanishes—which, under Mr Bolsonaro, could happen soon. There are hints the pessimists may be correct (see Briefing). In the past 15 years the Amazon has su?ered three severe droughts. Fires are on the rise.

亞馬遜河的不同尋常之處在于，它的大部分水都是循環(huán)利用的。隨著森林的萎縮，回收利用就會減少。一旦達到一特定閾值，這將因此導致更多的森林枯萎，而在過去幾十年的時間里，這個過程是一種作用于雨林自身的自我調節(jié)。隨著森林溫度的升高，氣候變化正使這一門檻逐年逼近。博爾索納羅正將其推向邊緣。悲觀主義者擔心，當另外3-8%的森林消失時，失控的退化循環(huán)可能會開始——在博爾索納羅的領導下，這一現(xiàn)象可能很快就會發(fā)生。有跡象表明悲觀主義者可能是正確的。在過去的15年里，亞馬遜遭受了三次嚴重的干旱?；馂脑谠黾印?/p>

詞匯

Wither/枯萎；凋謝

Brazil’s president dismisses such findings, as he does science more broadly. He accuses outsiders of hypocrisy—did rich countries not fell their own forests?—and, sometimes, of using environmental dogma as a pretext to keep Brazil poor. “The Amazon is ours,” the president thundered recently. What happens in the Brazilian Amazon, he thinks, is Brazil’s business.

巴西總統(tǒng)對這類現(xiàn)象不屑一顧，他在更廣泛的科學領域也是如此。他指責外人虛偽——“難道富裕國家沒有砍伐自己的森林嗎?”，“而且，（西方國家）有時還會以環(huán)境教條為借口，讓巴西繼續(xù)貧窮下去。”“亞馬遜是我們的，”總統(tǒng)最近怒吼道。他認為，巴西亞馬遜發(fā)生的一切都是巴西的事情。

詞匯

Hypocrisy/虛偽；偽善

Dogma/教條，教理；武斷的意見

Pretext/借口；托辭

Except it isn’t. A “dieback” would directly hurt the seven other countries with which Brazil shares the river basin. It would reduce the moisture channelled along the Andes as far south as Buenos Aires. If Brazil were damming a real river, not choking o? an aerial one, downstream nations could consider it an act of war. As the vast Amazonian store of carbon burned and rotted, the world could heat up by as much as 0.1°C by 2100—not a lot, you may think, but the preferred target of the Paris climate agreement allows further warming of only 0.5°C or so.

除了它不是?！拔s”將直接傷害與巴西共享這條河流域的其他7個國家。它將減少沿安第斯山脈向南輸送到布宜諾斯艾利斯的水分。如果巴西要在一條真正的河流上筑壩，而不是阻塞一條空中河流，下游國家可能會認為這是一種戰(zhàn)爭行為。隨著亞馬遜地區(qū)大量碳的燃燒和（植被）腐爛，到2100年，全球氣溫將升高0.1攝氏度——你可能認為這不是很多，但《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》的首選目標只允許氣溫進一步升高0.5攝氏度左右。

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Mr Bolsonaro’s other arguments are also ?awed. Yes, the rich world has razed its forests. Brazil should not copy its mistakes, but learn from them instead as, say, France has, by reforesting while it still can. Paranoia about Western scheming is just that. The knowledge economy values the genetic information sequestered in the forest more highly than land or dead trees. Even if it did not, deforestation is not a necessary price of development. Brazil’s output of soyabeans and beef rose between 2004 and 2012, when forest-clearing slowed by 80%. In fact, aside from the Amazon itself, Brazilian agriculture may be deforestation’s biggest victim. The drought of 2015 caused maize farmers in the central Brazilian state of Mato Grosso to lose a third of their harvest.

博爾索納羅的其他論點也有缺陷。的確，發(fā)達國家已經(jīng)把森林夷為平地。但巴西不應該效仿他們的錯誤，而是應該像法國那樣，趁現(xiàn)在為時不晚重新造林，從中吸取教訓。但他們對西方陰謀的偏執(zhí)的認識表達出的反映就是這樣。知識經(jīng)濟包括與世隔絕的樹林里所包含的遺傳信息，這比陸上或死去的樹木更加珍貴。即使沒有，砍伐森林也不是發(fā)展的必要代價。2004年至2012年間，巴西的大豆和牛肉產(chǎn)量上升，當時森林砍伐速度放緩了80%。事實上，除了亞馬遜本身，巴西農業(yè)可能是森林砍伐的最大受害者。2015年的干旱導致巴西中部馬托格羅索州的玉米農民損失了三分之一的收成。

詞匯

Raze/夷為平地；破壞

Paranoia/偏執(zhí)狂，妄想狂

Sequester/使隔絕；使隱退；沒收，扣押

Maize/玉米

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For all these reasons, the world ought to make clear to Mr Bolsonaro that it will not tolerate his vandalism. Food companies, pressed by consumers, should spurn soyabeans and beef produced on illegally logged Amazonian land, as they did in the mid-2000s. Brazil’s trading partners should make deals contingent on its good behaviour. The agreement reached in June by the eu and Mercosur, a South American trading bloc of which Brazil is the biggest member, already includes provisions to protect the rainforest. It is overwhelmingly in the parties’ interest to enforce them. So too for China, which is anxious about global warming and needs Brazilian agriculture to feed its livestock. Rich signatories of the Paris agreement, who pledged to pay developing ones to plant carbonconsuming trees, ought to do so. Deforestation accounts for 8% of global greenhouse-gas emissions but attracts only 3% of the aid earmarked for combating climate change.

基于所有這些原因，世界應該向博爾索納羅先生表明，世界不會容忍他的破壞行為。在消費者的壓力下，食品公司應該像本世紀頭十年中期那樣，拒收在亞馬遜非法采伐的土地上生產(chǎn)大豆和牛肉。巴西的貿易伙伴應該視其良好表現(xiàn)而定交易。今年6月，歐盟與南美貿易集團南方共同市場(Mercosur)達成協(xié)議，其中已包括保護熱帶雨林的條款。巴西是該集團最大的成員國。強制執(zhí)行這些協(xié)議絕對符合各方的利益。對中國來說也是如此，中國擔心全球變暖，同時也需要巴西的農業(yè)來喂養(yǎng)牲畜?！栋屠鑵f(xié)定》的富裕簽署國承諾向發(fā)展中國家支付種植碳消耗樹木的費用，他們應該這樣做。森林砍伐占全球溫室氣體排放的8%，但只吸引了3%定向款的用于應對氣候變化的援助。

詞匯

Spurn/唾棄；冷落；一腳踢開

Contingent/依情況而變的

Bloc/集團

Deforestation/采伐森林，森林開伐

Earmark/指定

The wood and the trees

樹林和樹木

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If there is a green shoot in Mr Bolsonaro’s scorched-earth tactics towards the rainforest, it is that they have made the Amazon’s plight harder to ignore—and not just for outsiders. Brazil’s agriculture minister urged Mr Bolsonaro to stay in the Paris agreement. Unchecked deforestation could end up hurting Brazilian farmers if it leads to foreign boycotts of Brazilian farm goods. Ordinary Brazilians should press their president to reverse course. They have been blessed with a unique planetary patrimony, whose value is intrinsic and life-sustaining as much as it is commercial. Letting it perish would be a needless catastrophe.

如果說博爾索納羅先生對熱帶雨林“焦土策略”中有一個綠色的亮點，那就是它們使得亞馬遜的困境更難被忽視——而且不僅僅是對局外人而言。巴西農業(yè)部長敦促博爾索納羅留在巴黎協(xié)議中。如果無限制地砍伐森林導致外國抵制巴西農產(chǎn)品，最終可能會傷害巴西農民。普通的巴西人應該敦促他們的總統(tǒng)改變路線。他們有幸擁有獨一無二的地球遺產(chǎn)，其價值不僅具有商業(yè)價值，而且具有內在價值和維持生命的價值。讓它滅亡將是一場不必要的災難。

詞匯

scorched-earth tactics/焦土戰(zhàn)術

Patrimony/遺產(chǎn)

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