Canada's Budget

Over the next four decades Canada’s growth per person is expected to be the lowest in the OECD, a club mostly of rich countries. On April 7th Chrystia Freeland, the finance minister, sought to correct that. In presenting the federal budget for the 2022-23 fiscal year, which began on April 1st, she vowed to tackle the “insidious” problem of low productivity growth. She coupled that with a promise to reduce debt, which soared during the pandemic, as a share of GDP.

在接下來的40年里，加拿大預(yù)計將會成為OECD（大多數(shù)由發(fā)達國家組成）中人均增長最低的國家。4月7日，加拿大的財政部長克里斯蒂亞·弗里蘭試圖來修正經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。在提交于4月1日開始實行的2022-2023財政年度聯(lián)邦預(yù)算時，她發(fā)誓要解決低生產(chǎn)率增長中的潛在問題。與此同時，她也做出承諾會減少在疫情期間猛增的負(fù)債，這種負(fù)債是作為GDP一部分的。

The budget looks like an attempt by the Liberals, in office since 2015, to reclaim their reputation for centrism after years of rising federal spending.Critics say it falls short. It comes as the fortunes of Justin Trudeau, the prime minister, are improving after a rough patch. Police removed anti-government protesters from the streets of Ottawa, the capital, in February. The recent jump in the prices of commodities Canada exports should help protect its economy from an expected decline in global growth. In March Mr Trudeau,who leads a minority government, struck a “confidence-and-supply” agreement with the left-leaning New Democrats (NDP), which will probably keep him in power until elections in 2025. The opposition Conservatives are preoccupied with choosing a new leader in a vote due to take place in September.

該預(yù)算看起來像是自由黨自2015年以來執(zhí)政的一次嘗試，其目的在于，在多年的聯(lián)邦支出上升后，重新獲得中間主義的聲譽。批評人士說，這還不夠。與此同時，總理賈斯廷·特魯多的命運在度過艱難的時期后正在好轉(zhuǎn)。警方于2月驅(qū)趕了首都渥太華街道的反政府抗議者。加拿大大宗商品價格的上漲應(yīng)該有助于使其經(jīng)濟免受全球增長預(yù)期下降的影響。3月，特魯多，作為一個少數(shù)派政府的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者與左傾新民主黨（NDP）達成了一項“信任和供給”協(xié)議，這可能會使他一直執(zhí)政到2025年的選舉。與之對立的保守黨正專注于在9月的選舉中決定他們新的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。

Ms Freeland also has some money to spend, partly because of a post-pandemic economic recovery. She plans to fork out C$9.5bn ($7.5bn) over five years, 0.4% of total spending, on measures to spur home-building. A 50% rise in house prices over the past two years is among voters’ biggest concerns. Construction is supposed to double over the next decade. Foreigners, who are implausibly blamed for pushing up prices, will be barred from buying houses for two years.

弗里蘭女士也能有一些資金以供開支，部分是歸功于后疫情時期經(jīng)濟的恢復(fù)。她預(yù)計在接下來的5年中，將總開支的0.4%，95億加元（核算為75億美元）用于住房建設(shè)上。房價在過去的2年中上漲了50%是選民最關(guān)心的議題之一。房屋建設(shè)預(yù)計在接下來的十年中翻背。被控推高房價的外國人，將被兩年內(nèi)禁止買房。

Despite the deal with the NDP, Ms Freeland “did show some restraint” on spending, says Rebekah Young, an economist at Scotiabank. The budget sets almost nothing aside for a proposal, backed by both parties, to provide universal coverage of the cost of prescription drugs. Debt is projected to fall from 46.5% of GDP last year to 41.5% in 2026-27. But the government should do more to restrain deficits “when times are good”, says Ms Young. She argues that the government’s plans to sustain growth lack “a coherent vision”.

加拿大豐業(yè)銀行的一位經(jīng)濟學(xué)家麗貝卡·楊說道：盡管是和新民主黨達成了協(xié)議，弗里蘭女士在支出上“確實表現(xiàn)出了一定的克制”。此次預(yù)算全力投入受到各方黨派支持的，處方藥費用全民覆蓋提議。負(fù)債占比GDP總額預(yù)計將于去年的46.5%下降到2026-2027年的41.5%。楊女士說道，“在經(jīng)濟形勢好的時候”，政府應(yīng)該采取更多措施來限制赤字。她認(rèn)為政府用來實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長的計劃缺乏“連貫性”。

Ms Freeland’s most notable idea is to establish an “arm’s-length” Canada Growth Fund. Initially capitalised at C$15bn, it is supposed to attract at least three times that from the private sector to boost green businesses and exports. Missing from the budget are measures that would have a bigger payoff, such as giving incentives to provinces to remove barriers to trade. Ms Freeland’s quest for growth could have been bolder.

弗里蘭女士最著名的想法是，建立一個“獨立”的加拿大增長基金。初試注資150億加元，預(yù)計能夠從私人企業(yè)吸收至少3倍的資金用以促進綠色企業(yè)的發(fā)展和出口。預(yù)算中缺少一些將獲得更大回報的措施，比如鼓勵各省消除貿(mào)易壁壘。弗里蘭女士對實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長的想法本可以更大膽一些。