American Economic Journal: Economic Policy?2023年第1期

VOL. 15, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2023

——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

1.Housing in Medicaid: Should It Really Change?

醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助中的住房:它真的應(yīng)該改變嗎?

BertrandAchou

Housing is mostly exempted from Medicaid and Supplemental Social Insurance means tests. Reforms of this special treatment have been debated, but little is known about its costs, benefits, and redistributive implications. I estimate a life cycle model of single retirees accounting for this exemption. It shows that the homestead exemption explains important patterns of Medicaid recipiency and that it is highly valued. It also shows that estate recovery could cover most of its costs with possibly limited negative welfare consequences. Finally, the model predicts that removing the homestead exemption or enforcing estate recovery programs would reduce redistribution toward lower-income retirees.

住房大多免除了醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助和補(bǔ)充社會保險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況調(diào)查。這種特殊待遇的改革一直在辯論，但對其成本、收益和再分配影響知之甚少。我估算了一個(gè)單身退休人員的生命周期模型，用于計(jì)算這一豁免。它表明，宅基地豁免解釋了醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助接受的重要模式，并得到了高度重視。它還表明，房地產(chǎn)回收可以彌補(bǔ)其大部分成本，但可能有限的負(fù)面福利后果。最后，該模型預(yù)測，取消宅基地豁免或執(zhí)行房地產(chǎn)回收計(jì)劃將減少對低收入退休人員的再分配。

2.The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence from the 1960s through 1990s

兒童早期教育對成人犯罪的影響:20世紀(jì)60年代至90年代的證據(jù)

JohnAnders,?Andrew C.?Barr?and?Alexander A.?Smith

We compare the effects of early childhood education on adult criminal behavior across time periods, using administrative crime data that provide significant precision advantages over existing work. We find that improvements in early childhood education led to large (20 percent) reductions in later criminal behavior, reductions that far exceed those implied by estimates of test score gains in prior studies. While the benefits generated account for a large portion of the costs of the education provided, we find substantial relative gains from the targeting of funds to high-poverty areas and areas without existing access to subsidized care.

我們使用行政犯罪數(shù)據(jù)來比較不同時(shí)期早期兒童教育對成人犯罪行為的影響，這些數(shù)據(jù)比現(xiàn)有研究提供了顯著的精確優(yōu)勢。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，早期兒童教育的改善導(dǎo)致了后來犯罪行為的大幅減少(20%)，這一減少遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了之前研究中對考試成績提高的估計(jì)。雖然所產(chǎn)生的收益占所提供教育成本的很大一部分，但我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，將資金定向到高貧困地區(qū)和現(xiàn)有無法獲得補(bǔ)貼醫(yī)療的地區(qū)帶來了可觀的相對收益。

3.Exploring Residual Profit Allocation

SebastianBeer,?Ruud?de Mooij,?Shafik?Hebous,?Michael?Keen?and?Li?Liu

Residual profit allocation (RPA) schemes have come to prominence in discussions of international tax reform but with almost nothing known about their economic impact. These schemes tax multinationals by allocating their "routine" profits to source countries and sharing their remaining "residual" profit across countries on some formulaic basis. This paper explores the implications, conceptual and empirical, of moving to some form of RPA. Residual profits are estimated to be substantial and concentrated in relatively few multinational enterprises. The impact on tax revenue appears beneficial for developing countries. Aggregate production efficiency is unlikely to increase unless routine profits are lightly taxed.

剩余利潤分配(RPA)計(jì)劃在國際稅收改革的討論中已經(jīng)變得突出，但對它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響幾乎一無所知。這些計(jì)劃通過將跨國公司的”常規(guī)”利潤分配給來源國，并在某種公式化的基礎(chǔ)上在各國之間分享剩余的”剩余”利潤，對跨國公司征稅。本文探討了遷移到某種形式的RPA的概念和經(jīng)驗(yàn)含義。據(jù)估計(jì)，剩余利潤相當(dāng)可觀，而且集中在相對較少的跨國企業(yè)。對稅收收入的影響似乎對發(fā)展中國家有利。除非對日常利潤征收少量的稅，否則總體生產(chǎn)效率不太可能提高。

4.Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment

作為稻草人的稅務(wù)審計(jì):來自大規(guī)模實(shí)地實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

MarceloBergolo,?Rodrigo?Ceni,?Guillermo?Cruces,?Matias?Giaccobasso?and?Ricardo?Perez-Truglia

The canonical model of Allingham and Sandmo (1972) predicts that firms evade taxes by optimally trading off between the costs and benefits of evasion. However, there is no direct evidence that firms react to audits in this way. We conducted a large-scale field experiment in collaboration with a tax authority to address this question. We sent letters to 20,440 small- and medium-sized firms that collectively paid more than US$200 million in taxes per year. We find that providing information about audits significantly affected tax compliance but in a manner that was inconsistent with Allingham and Sandmo (1972).

阿林厄姆和Sandmo(1972)的規(guī)范模型預(yù)測，企業(yè)通過在逃稅的成本和收益之間進(jìn)行最優(yōu)權(quán)衡來逃避稅收。然而，沒有直接證據(jù)表明企業(yè)會以這種方式對審計(jì)做出反應(yīng)。為了解決這個(gè)問題，我們與稅務(wù)機(jī)關(guān)合作進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)大規(guī)模的現(xiàn)場實(shí)驗(yàn)。我們致函20440家中小企業(yè)，這些企業(yè)每年總共繳納了超過2億美元的稅款。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，提供審計(jì)信息顯著影響稅收合規(guī)，但其方式與Allingham和Sandmo(1972)不一致。

5.The Employment Effects of Countercyclical Public Investments

反周期公共投資的就業(yè)效應(yīng)

LukasBuchheim?and?Martin?Watzinger

This paper estimates the causal impact of a sizable German public investment program on employment at the county level. The program focused on improving the energy efficiency of school buildings, making it possible to use the number of schools as an instrument for investments. It also enforced tight deadlines, reducing potential implementation lags. The program was cost-effective, creating, on average, one job for one year for an investment of €24,000. The employment gains are detectable after nine months and are accompanied by an unemployment reduction amounting to half of the job creation. Employment grew predominately in the directly affected industries.

本文估計(jì)了德國大規(guī)模公共投資計(jì)劃對縣級就業(yè)的因果影響。該計(jì)劃的重點(diǎn)是提高學(xué)校建筑的能源效率，使學(xué)校數(shù)量成為投資工具成為可能。它還規(guī)定了嚴(yán)格的期限，減少了可能的實(shí)施滯后。該項(xiàng)目具有成本效益，平均每年創(chuàng)造一個(gè)工作崗位，投資2.4萬歐元。就業(yè)增長在9個(gè)月后可以檢測到，與此同時(shí)，失業(yè)率下降了一半，創(chuàng)造了一半的就業(yè)機(jī)會。就業(yè)主要在直接受影響的行業(yè)增長。

6.SOEs and Soft Incentive Constraints in State Bank Lending

國有企業(yè)與國有銀行貸款中的軟激勵約束

YimingCao,?Raymond?Fisman,?Hui?Lin?and?Yongxiang?Wang

We study how Chinese state bank managers' lending incentives impact lending to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We show lending quantity increases and quality decreases at month's end, indicating monthly lending targets that decrease lending standards. Increased quantity comes from both SOEs and private lending, whereas decreased quality is from only SOEs, which continue to receive loans even after prior defaults (particularly at month's end). We suggest that SOE lending may thus be beneficial for state bank managers, who lend to delinquent state enterprises to meet targets, which in turn may exacerbate SOEs' soft budget constraints.

本文研究了中國國有銀行高管的貸款激勵對國有企業(yè)貸款的影響。我們顯示月末貸款數(shù)量增加而質(zhì)量下降，表明月度貸款目標(biāo)降低了貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。數(shù)量的增加來自國有企業(yè)和民間借貸，而質(zhì)量的下降僅來自國有企業(yè)，即使在之前的違約(特別是在月底)之后，國有企業(yè)也能繼續(xù)獲得貸款。因此，國有企業(yè)貸款可能有利于國有銀行管理者，他們向拖欠的國有企業(yè)貸款以實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)，這反過來可能加劇國有企業(yè)的軟預(yù)算約束。

7.Economic Effects of Environmental Crises: Evidence from Flint, Michigan

環(huán)境危機(jī)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響:來自密歇根州弗林特的證據(jù)

PeterChristensen,?David A.?Keiser?and?Gabriel E.?Lade

In April 2014 Flint, Michigan switched its drinking water supply from the Detroit water system to the Flint River as a temporary means to save $5 million. Over 18 months it was revealed that the switch exposed residents to dangerous levels of lead, culminating in an emergency declaration in October 2015. This paper examines the impact of this crisis on the Flint housing market. The value of Flint's housing stock has fallen by $520 million to $559 million despite over $400 million in remediation spending. Home prices remain depressed through August 2019, 16 months after the water was declared safe for consumption.

2014年4月，密歇根州的弗林特市將其飲用水供應(yīng)從底特律供水系統(tǒng)改為弗林特河，作為一種臨時(shí)手段，以節(jié)省500萬美元。在過去的18個(gè)月里，人們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種開關(guān)使居民暴露在危險(xiǎn)水平的鉛中，最終在2015年10月宣布進(jìn)入緊急狀態(tài)。本文研究了這場危機(jī)對弗林特住房市場的影響。弗林特的住房股票價(jià)值下降了5.2億美元，降至5.59億美元，盡管補(bǔ)救支出超過4億美元。直到2019年8月，房價(jià)仍然低迷，16個(gè)月前，這種水被宣布可以安全飲用。

8.The Extension of Credit with Nonexclusive Contracts and Sequential Banking Externalities

非排他性契約下的信貸擴(kuò)展與順序銀行外部性

GiacomoDe Giorgi,?Andres?Drenik?and?Enrique?Seira

Nonexclusive sequential borrowing can increase default and impose externalities on prior lenders. We document that sequential banking is pervasive with substantial effects. Using credit card applications from a large bank and data on the applicants' entire loan portfolios, we find that an additional credit line causes a 5.9 percentage point decline in default for high-score borrowers on previous loans. However, for low-score borrowers, it causes a 19 percentage point increase. The former use the new credit to smooth payments on preexisting loans, while the latter increase their total debt. These results have implications for "no-universal-default" regulation and financial inclusion.

非排他性連續(xù)借款會增加違約，并對先前的出借人施加外部性。我們證明，順序銀行是普遍的，具有重大的影響。利用一家大銀行的信用卡申請和申請人整個(gè)貸款組合的數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，對高分借款人來說，額外的信用額度會使他們之前貸款的違約率下降5.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。然而，對于低分借款人，它會導(dǎo)致19個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的增長。前者使用新的信貸來順利償還先前存在的貸款，而后者則增加了他們的總債務(wù)。這些結(jié)果對“無普遍違約”監(jiān)管和普惠金融具有啟示意義。

9.Expanding Access to Clean Water for the Rural Poor: Experimental Evidence from Malawi

擴(kuò)大農(nóng)村貧困人口獲得清潔水的途徑:來自馬拉維的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

PascalineDupas,?Basimenye?Nhlema,?Zachary?Wagner,?Aaron?Wolf?and?Emily?Wroe

Data from an 18-month randomized trial show large and sustained impacts on water purification and child health of a program providing monthly coupons for free water treatment solution to households with young children. The program is more effective and much more cost effective than asking Community Health Workers (CHWs) to distribute free chlorine to households during routine monthly visits. This is because only 40 percent of households use free chlorine, targeting through CHWs is worse than self-targeting through coupon redemption, and water treatment promotion by CHWs does not increase chlorine use among beneficiaries of free chlorine.

一項(xiàng)為期18個(gè)月的隨機(jī)試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，為有幼兒的家庭每月提供免費(fèi)水處理解決方案優(yōu)惠券的項(xiàng)目對水凈化和兒童健康產(chǎn)生了巨大而持續(xù)的影響。與要求社區(qū)衛(wèi)生工作者(chw)在每月例行訪問期間向家庭免費(fèi)分發(fā)氯相比，該項(xiàng)目更有效，成本效益更高。這是因?yàn)橹挥?0%的家庭使用免費(fèi)氯，通過社區(qū)衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行目標(biāo)定位比通過優(yōu)惠券兌換進(jìn)行自我目標(biāo)定位更糟糕，而且社區(qū)衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)的水處理推廣并沒有增加免費(fèi)氯受益者的氯使用量。

10.Employed in a SNAP? The Impact of Work Requirements on Program Participation and Labor Supply

在SNAP工作?工作要求對項(xiàng)目參與和勞動力供給的影響

ColinGray,?Adam?Leive,?Elena?Prager,?Kelsey?Pukelis?and?Mary?Zaki

Work requirements are common in US safety net programs. Evidence remains limited, however, on the extent to which work requirements increase economic self-sufficiency or screen out vulnerable individuals. Using linked administrative data on food stamps (SNAP) and earnings with a regression discontinuity design, we find robust evidence that work requirements increase program exits by 23 percentage points (64 percent) among incumbent participants. Overall program participation among adults who are subject to work requirements is reduced by 53 percent. Homeless adults are disproportionately screened out. We find no effects on employment and suggestive evidence of increased earnings in some specifications.

工作要求在美國的安全網(wǎng)計(jì)劃中很常見。然而，關(guān)于工作要求在多大程度上提高經(jīng)濟(jì)自給自足或淘汰弱勢個(gè)體的證據(jù)仍然有限。使用有關(guān)食品券(SNAP)和收益的關(guān)聯(lián)管理數(shù)據(jù)，并采用回歸不連續(xù)設(shè)計(jì)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)有力的證據(jù)，表明工作要求使在職參與者的項(xiàng)目退出率提高了23個(gè)百分點(diǎn)(64%)。受工作要求約束的成年人參與項(xiàng)目的總體人數(shù)減少了53%。無家可歸的成年人不成比例地被淘汰。我們沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)對就業(yè)的影響，并在某些規(guī)格中發(fā)現(xiàn)了增加收入的暗示性證據(jù)。

11.Implications of Tax Loss Asymmetry for Owners of S Corporations

稅收損失不對稱對S公司所有者的啟示

LucasGoodman,?Elena?Patel?and?Molly?Saunders-Scott

We study tax loss asymmetry for S corporate owners. These owners use most losses contemporaneously, reducing the tax asymmetry compared to C corporations. However, these owners face distortions due to the progressive individual tax schedule. The value of this asymmetry is approximately $3.5 billion per year. We find that this asymmetry creates disincentives for risky investment and causes allocative inefficiencies among loss and gains owners. Finally, we simulate the effects of certain provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; we estimate that these provisions—especially section 199A—reduce the behavioral distortions of the asymmetry for S corporate owners.

我們研究S公司所有者的稅收損失不對稱性。這些所有者同時(shí)使用大部分虧損，與C公司相比，減少了稅收不對稱。然而，由于累進(jìn)個(gè)人稅收表，這些所有者面臨著扭曲。這種不對稱的價(jià)值大約是每年35億美元。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這種不對稱對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資產(chǎn)生了抑制作用，并導(dǎo)致?lián)p失所有者和收益所有者之間的配置效率低下。最后，我們模擬了《減稅與就業(yè)法案》某些條款的影響;我們估計(jì)，這些條款，特別是第199a條，減少了S公司所有者不對稱的行為扭曲。

12.Health Effects of Increasing Income for the Elderly: Evidence from a Chilean Pension Program

老年人收入增加對健康的影響:來自智利養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃的證據(jù)

EnricoMiglino,?Nicolás?Navarrete H.,?Gonzalo?Navarrete H.?and?Pablo?Navarrete H.

We estimate the effect of a permanent income increase on the health outcomes of the elderly poor. Our regression discontinuity design exploits an eligibility cutoff in a Chilean basic pension program that grants monthly payments to retirees without a contributory pension. Using administrative data, we find that four years after applying, basic pension recipients are 2.7 percentage points less likely to have died. Survey evidence suggests an increase in food consumption and visits to health centers as relevant drivers of the mortality reduction.

我們估計(jì)了長期收入增加對貧困老年人口健康狀況的影響。我們的回歸不連續(xù)設(shè)計(jì)利用了智利基本養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃中的資格截止點(diǎn)，該計(jì)劃每月向沒有繳費(fèi)養(yǎng)老金的退休人員發(fā)放養(yǎng)老金。使用管理數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在申請四年后，基本養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者的死亡可能性降低了2.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。調(diào)查證據(jù)表明，食品消費(fèi)量的增加和到保健中心就診次數(shù)的增加是死亡率降低的相關(guān)驅(qū)動因素。

13.The Economic Consequences of Being Denied an Abortion

被拒絕墮胎的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果

SarahMiller,?Laura R.?Wherry?and?Diana Greene?Foster

This paper evaluates the financial and economic consequences of being denied an abortion. We link credit report data to the Turnaway Study, which collected high-quality, longitudinal data on women receiving or being denied a wanted abortion in the United States. We compare financial outcomes over a ten-year period for women who had pregnancies just above and below a gestational age limit allowing for a wanted abortion. Outcomes evolved similarly for the two groups prior to the abortion encounter. Following the encounter, women who were denied an abortion experience a large increase in financial distress that remains for several years.

本文評估了被拒絕墮胎的財(cái)務(wù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)后果。我們將信用報(bào)告數(shù)據(jù)與Turnaway研究聯(lián)系起來，該研究收集了美國接受或被拒絕墮胎的女性的高質(zhì)量縱向數(shù)據(jù)。我們比較了懷孕剛好高于和低于允許墮胎的胎齡限制的婦女在10年期間的財(cái)務(wù)狀況。兩組在墮胎前的結(jié)局相似。在這種遭遇之后，被拒絕墮胎的女性在經(jīng)濟(jì)上的困難會大幅增加，這種情況會持續(xù)數(shù)年。

14.School Boards and Education Production: Evidence from Randomized Ballot Order

學(xué)校董事會和教育生產(chǎn):來自隨機(jī)投票順序的證據(jù)

YingShi?and?John D.?Singleton

We examine the causal influence of educators elected to the school board on local education production. The key empirical challenge is that school board composition is endogenously determined through the electoral process. To overcome this, we develop a novel research design that leverages California's randomized assignment of the order that candidate names appear on election ballots. We find that an additional educator elected to the school board reduces charter schooling and increases teacher salaries in the school district relative to other board members. We interpret these findings as consistent with educator board members shifting bargaining in favor of teachers' unions.

我們考察了當(dāng)選為學(xué)校董事會成員的教育工作者對當(dāng)?shù)亟逃a(chǎn)的因果影響。關(guān)鍵的實(shí)證挑戰(zhàn)是，學(xué)校董事會的組成是通過選舉過程內(nèi)生決定的。為了克服這一問題，我們開發(fā)了一種新穎的研究設(shè)計(jì)，利用加利福尼亞州對候選人名字出現(xiàn)在選舉選票上的順序進(jìn)行隨機(jī)分配。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，增加一名當(dāng)選為學(xué)校董事會成員的教育工作者會減少特許教育，并增加學(xué)區(qū)教師相對于其他董事會成員的工資。我們認(rèn)為這些發(fā)現(xiàn)與教育委員會成員轉(zhuǎn)向有利于教師工會的談判一致。

15.What Does a Provider Network Do? Evidence from Random Assignment in Medicaid Managed Care

提供者網(wǎng)絡(luò)做什么?來自醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助管理醫(yī)療隨機(jī)分配的證據(jù)

JacobWallace

Leveraging the random assignment of over 50,000 Medicaid enrollees in New York, I present causal evidence that narrower networks are a blunt instrument for reducing health care spending. While narrower networks constrain spending, they do so by generating hassle costs that reduce quantity, with modest effects on prices paid to providers. Enrollees assigned to narrower networks use fewer of both needed and unneeded services and are less satisfied with their plans. Using my causal estimates to construct counterfactuals, I identify an alternative assignment policy that reduces spending without harming satisfaction by matching consumers with narrower networks that include their providers.

利用紐約5萬多名醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助參選者的隨機(jī)分配，我提出了因果證據(jù)，表明更窄的網(wǎng)絡(luò)是減少醫(yī)療保健支出的生硬工具。雖然更狹窄的網(wǎng)絡(luò)限制了支出，但它們通過產(chǎn)生減少數(shù)量的麻煩成本來做到這一點(diǎn)，而對支付給供應(yīng)商的價(jià)格影響不大。被分配到更狹窄的網(wǎng)絡(luò)的參保者使用更少的必要和不需要的服務(wù)，并且對他們的計(jì)劃不太滿意。利用我的因果估計(jì)來構(gòu)建反事實(shí)，我確定了一種替代分配策略，通過將消費(fèi)者與包括他們的提供者在內(nèi)的更狹窄的網(wǎng)絡(luò)匹配，在不損害滿意度的情況下減少支出。

16.Student Performance, Peer Effects, and Friend Networks: Evidence from a Randomized Peer Intervention

學(xué)生表現(xiàn)、同伴影響和朋友網(wǎng)絡(luò):來自隨機(jī)同伴干預(yù)的證據(jù)

JiaWu,?Junsen?Zhang?and?Chunchao?Wang

We estimate the effects of an educational peer intervention in which previously high- and low-achieving students are randomly paired as deskmates in elementary schools in China. Our treatment boosts the mathematics scores of the low-achieving students. Moreover, the treatment enhances the extraversion and agreeableness of high- and low-achieving students, thereby providing evidence that peers can influence personality traits. The positive treatment effects can be attributed to the deskmate-level peer effects. We document friend network structure changes and present additional evidence on how friendship ties help us better understand the mechanisms behind peer effects.

我們評估了一項(xiàng)教育同伴干預(yù)的效果，在這項(xiàng)干預(yù)中，以前成績好的學(xué)生和成績差的學(xué)生被隨機(jī)配對為中國小學(xué)的同桌。我們的處理提高了成績差的學(xué)生的數(shù)學(xué)成績。此外，這種處理提高了成績好的學(xué)生和成績差的學(xué)生的外向性和親和性，從而為同伴可以影響人格特征提供了證據(jù)。積極的處理效果可以歸因于同桌水平的同伴效應(yīng)。我們記錄了朋友網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，并提供了更多的證據(jù)，證明友誼關(guān)系如何幫助我們更好地理解同伴效應(yīng)背后的機(jī)制。