The more I think about it, the more the I realize how huge this news actually is, how big a win it is for China, and how big a loss for the US.?

In one simple move, China basically proved that the enormous years-long efforts the US put to destroy both Huawei and the Chinese semiconductor industry have been defeated.?

我越想越明白，這條新聞的意義到底有多深刻，這場勝利對中國來說到底有多宏大，這次敗北對美國來說又到底有多么恥辱。

中國只走了一著棋就基本證明，美國花費這么長時間、用這么大功夫去摧毀華為和中國半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)的企圖，已經(jīng)轟然破碎。

?In typical Chinese fashion - words are cheap in China, you prove yourself with deeds - they didn't make any announcements about it. Huawei didn't even communicate on the product launch, the phone just showed up in their store. And that was coincidentally on exactly the same day as the visit of US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who had vowed to "slow China's innovation rate". Talk about symbolism!?

依著中國人的習慣——在中國人眼里，切實行動比空口白話更有用——他們壓根沒給這事造勢。華為甚至都沒有就這部產(chǎn)品的發(fā)布透露一個字，然后這部手機就這么憑空出現(xiàn)在他們的店里。好巧不巧，指天誓日要“拖慢中國創(chuàng)新步伐”的美國商務部長吉娜·雷蒙多恰好就在同一天訪問中國。什么象征主義！

People had to look inside the phone to find out it is equipped with Huawei’s in-house Kirin 9000s processor, which is apparently made by Chinese semiconductor firm SMIC using a 2nd?generation 7nm-class fabrication process. Less than one year ago, when the US introduced its sweeping set of sanctions against the Chinese semiconductors industry, "experts" vowed it would kill the industry or at least freeze its technological progress at the 28 nm chips China were at back then. Fast forward to now: China can evidently mass-produce 2nd?generation 7nm chips entirely indigenously. The iPhone 14 Pro has 4nm chips so China is now almost on par, maybe just 1 or 2 years behind but catching up at an insane speed.?

人們只能把手機拆開，這才發(fā)現(xiàn)這手機里裝備的是華為自研自發(fā)的麒麟9000s處理器。它明顯是由中國半導體公司SMIC用二代7納米級技術制造的。在不到一年前，美國針對中國半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)布一大堆制裁的時候，所謂的“專家”們信誓旦旦地宣稱這將會把中國的半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)扼殺在搖籃里，或至少將中國對納米芯片科研進度在當時的28納米處按下停止鍵。然而反觀現(xiàn)在，中國已經(jīng)具備了完全在自己的國土上大量生產(chǎn)二代7納米芯片的能力。iPhone14Pro上裝載的是4納米芯片，所以中國的技術現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)幾乎與之持平。也許他們落后了一兩年，但也正以令人咂舌的速度向這個方向追趕。

So what has the US managed to do? They've transformed Huawei into an incredibly more resilient company and have made China build an entirely indigenous semiconductors ecosystem, which wasn't the case at all before the sanctions, and which I am sure will prove to be a formidable competitor to other semiconductor companies out there.?

?Because other countries have been paying attention here. They now know that it's super dangerous to source semiconductors with Western firms as the US won't hesitate to weaponize the industry for geopolitical ends. So they'll turn to Chinese firms...?

那么，美國做到了些什么呢？他們把華為變成了一個更加堅韌無比的公司，讓中國建起了一套完全在境內(nèi)的半導體生態(tài)系統(tǒng)——制裁前，中國在這方面可是手無縛雞之力。而我相信，假以時日，這套系統(tǒng)會成為國際上其他半導體公司棘手的競爭者。

這是因為其他國家都在關注著相關情勢。他們現(xiàn)在知道了，從西方公司訂購半導體幾乎就是自投死路，因為美國會毫不猶豫地將這個產(chǎn)業(yè)變成自己的政治武器。所以，他們會轉(zhuǎn)而向中國公司拋出橄欖枝……

?What about Huawei's new phone? You can absolutely bet Huawei will end up eating a significant market share from Apple - as was the case before the sanctions. Especially in China where patriotic Chinese will undoubtedly rush to buy the phone, now a symbol of China's technological might.

而華為的新手機呢？猜都不用猜，它會吃掉相當一部分蘋果的市場份額——就像被制裁之前——特別是在中國。它現(xiàn)在是中國高技術實力的象征，愛國的中國人肯定會上趕著買。

?So it's lose, lose, lose for the US. Much more loss than if they hadn't done any of their aggressive actions against Huawei or China's chip sector.?

?Which again goes to show just how utterly pointless this new "cold war" is. Had the US decided to remain in engagement mode instead of "extreme competition" mode (as they call it), they'd have been much better off.

所以這是美國打的一場巨大的敗仗。他們損失得比沒有用激進手段制裁華為或中國芯片行業(yè)之前還要多。

這又一次展現(xiàn)了這場新“冷戰(zhàn)”是多么的沒意義。要是美國當年決定繼續(xù)保持在談判模式而不是切換到他們自稱的“極端競爭”模式，情況可能會好得多。

In a word: hubris.

用一個詞來概括的話就是：驕兵必敗。

——Twi@RnaudBertrand