For the past decade there have been two universally acknowledged truths about digital advertising. First, the rapidly growing industry was largely impervious to the business cycle. Second, it was dominated by the duopoly of Google (in search ads) and Meta (in social media), which one jealous rival has compared to John Rockefeller’s hold on oil in the late 19th century.

在過(guò)去的十年里，在數(shù)字廣告業(yè)有兩個(gè)公認(rèn)的真理。首先，快速增長(zhǎng)的（數(shù)字廣告）行業(yè)在很大程度上不受商業(yè)周期的影響。其次，它被谷歌(搜索廣告領(lǐng)域)和Meta(社交媒體領(lǐng)域)的雙頭壟斷所主導(dǎo)，一位嫉妒的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手將其與約翰?洛克菲勒在19世紀(jì)末對(duì)石油的壟斷相提并論。

Both of these verities are now being challenged simultaneously. As X’s economy slows and the West’s slides towards a recession, companies everywhere are squeezing their marketing budgets. Until recently, that would have meant cutting non-digital ads but maintaining, or even raising, online spending. With most ad dollars now going online, that strategy is running out of road. Last quarter Meta reported its first-ever year-on-year decline in revenues. Snap, a smaller rival, is laying off a fifth of its workforce.

這兩個(gè)真理現(xiàn)在同時(shí)受到了挑戰(zhàn)。隨著[]經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，西方經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸走向衰退，世界各地的公司都在緊縮營(yíng)銷預(yù)算。直到最近，這意味著削減非數(shù)字廣告，但保持甚至增加在線廣告的支出。如今，大多數(shù)廣告支出都投向了線上，這種策略已經(jīng)走到盡頭。上個(gè)季度，Meta報(bào)告其收入首次同比下降。其規(guī)模較小的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Snap正在裁其五分之一的勞動(dòng)力。

For Meta and for Google’s corporate parent, Alphabet, the cyclical problem may not be the worst of it. They might once have hoped to offset the digital-ad pie’s slower growth by grabbing a larger slice of it. No longer. Although the two are together expected to rake in some $300bn in revenues this year, sales of their four biggest rivals in the West will amount to almost a quarter as much. If that does not sound like a lot, it is nevertheless giving the incumbents reason to worry. Five years ago most of those rivals were scarcely in the ad business at all. What is more, as digital advertising enters a period of transformation, the challengers look well-placed to increase their gains.

對(duì)于Meta以及Alphabet（谷歌的母公司）來(lái)說(shuō)，周期性問(wèn)題可能還不是最糟糕的。他們可能曾經(jīng)希望通過(guò)搶占更大的份額來(lái)抵消數(shù)字廣告這塊蛋糕增長(zhǎng)緩慢的影響。現(xiàn)在不再行得通了。盡管這兩家公司今年的總收入預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到3000億美元左右，但它們?cè)谖鞣降乃拇蟾?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的銷售額將接近這一數(shù)字的四分之一。如果這聽(tīng)起來(lái)不是很多，但這確實(shí)給他們帶來(lái)了擔(dān)憂。五年前，這些競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手幾乎都沒(méi)有涉足廣告業(yè)。更重要的是，隨著數(shù)字廣告進(jìn)入轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)期，挑戰(zhàn)者似乎有能力增加他們的收益。

The noisiest newcomer to the digital-ad scene is TikTok. In the five years since its launch the short-video app has sucked ad dollars away from Facebook and Instagram, Meta’s two biggest properties—so much so that the two social networks are reinventing themselves in the image of their []-owned rival. TikTok’s worldwide revenue will exceed $11bn this year and will be double that by 2024, forecasts eMarketer, a firm of analysts.

數(shù)字廣告領(lǐng)域最喧鬧的新來(lái)者是TikTok。自其推出5年以來(lái)，這款短視頻應(yīng)用從Facebook和Instagram這兩個(gè)Meta最大的資產(chǎn)中吸走了大量的廣告收入，這一收入多到這兩個(gè)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)正在按照TikTok的形象重塑自己。分析公司eMarketer預(yù)測(cè)，TikTok的全球營(yíng)收在今年將超過(guò)110億美元，到2024年將翻一番。

The TikTok threat is well known—not least to Meta’s boss, Mark Zuckerberg, who mentioned the “unique” competitor five times on a recent earnings call. But Meta and Google may have more to worry about closer to home, where a trio of American tech firms are loading ever more ads around their main businesses.

TikTok帶來(lái)的“威脅”是眾所周知的，特別是對(duì)Meta的老板馬克·扎克伯格，他在最近的一次財(cái)報(bào)電話會(huì)議上五次提到這個(gè)“獨(dú)特的”競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。但是Meta和谷歌可能更需要擔(dān)心的是在其家門口的(競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手)，美國(guó)的三家科技公司正在他們的主要業(yè)務(wù)上載入越來(lái)越多的廣告。

Chief among them is Amazon, forecast to take nearly 7% of worldwide digital-ad revenue this year, up from less than 1% just six years ago. The company started reporting details of its ad business only in February, when it revealed sales in 2021 of $31bn. As Benedict Evans, a tech analyst, points out, that is roughly as much as the ad sales of the entire global newspaper industry. Amazon executives now talk of advertising as one of the company’s three “engines”, alongside retail and cloud computing.

其中最主要的是亞馬遜，預(yù)計(jì)該公司今年將占據(jù)全球數(shù)字廣告收入的近7%，而六年前這一比例還不到1%。該公司今年2月才開(kāi)始報(bào)告其廣告業(yè)務(wù)的細(xì)節(jié)，當(dāng)時(shí)公布2021年銷售額310億美元。正如科技分析師本尼迪克特?埃文斯所指出的，這大約相當(dāng)于全球報(bào)業(yè)的廣告銷售額。如今，亞馬遜的高管們將廣告業(yè)視為公司的三大“引擎”之一，與之并駕齊驅(qū)的是零售和云計(jì)算。

Next in line is Microsoft, expected to quietly take more than 2% of global sales this year—slightly more than TikTok. Its search engine, Bing, has only a small share of the search market, but that market is a gigantic one. Its social network, LinkedIn, is unglamorous but its business-to-business ads let it monetise the time users spend on it at a rate roughly four times that of Facebook, estimates Andrew Lipsman of eMarketer. It generates more revenue than some medium-sized networks including Snap’s Snapchat and Twitter.

緊隨其后的是微軟，預(yù)計(jì)該公司今年將悄然占據(jù)全球銷售額的2%以上，略高于TikTok。谷歌的搜索引擎必應(yīng)只占搜索市場(chǎng)的一小部分份額，但這個(gè)市場(chǎng)是巨大的。據(jù)eMarketer的安德魯?利普斯曼估計(jì)，LinkedIn的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)雖然枯燥，但其B2B的廣告是通過(guò)用戶花在上面的時(shí)間來(lái)變現(xiàn)的，用戶花在上面的時(shí)間大約是Facebook的四倍。它產(chǎn)生的收入超過(guò)了包括Snap旗下Snapchat和Twitter在內(nèi)的一些中型社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

The most surprising new adman is Apple. The iPhone-maker used to rail against intrusive digital advertising. Now it sells many ads of its own. As sales of smartphones plateau, the company is looking for new ways to capture revenue from the 1.8bn devices, from smartphones to smart earphones, it already has in circulation. So far it is only dabbling in ads and does not report sales figures. But Bloomberg reported recently that Apple’s ad business was already generating sales of $4bn a year, making it about as big an ad platform as Twitter. Apple executives believe there is much more to be had.

最令人驚訝的新廣告商是蘋(píng)果公司。這家iphone制造商過(guò)去常常抨擊侵入性的數(shù)字廣告?，F(xiàn)在它自己也賣很多廣告。隨著智能手機(jī)銷售趨于穩(wěn)定，該公司正在尋找新的方式，從已經(jīng)在流通的18億部設(shè)備(從智能手機(jī)到智能耳機(jī))中獲取收入。到目前為止，它只是涉足廣告，并沒(méi)有公布銷售數(shù)據(jù)。但彭博社最近報(bào)道稱，蘋(píng)果的廣告業(yè)務(wù)年銷售額已達(dá)40億美元，這使其成為一個(gè)與Twitter規(guī)模相當(dāng)?shù)膹V告平臺(tái)。蘋(píng)果的高管們相信，還有更多的事情要做。

They may well be right. Changes are coming to the digital-advertising industry which will suit the big-tech challengers. Apple itself is in part responsible for what may be the most consequential development. Its rules on “app-tracking transparency” (att), introduced last year, have made it much harder for advertisers to follow users around the web and serve them ads based on their interests. The eu’s Digital Services Act, unveiled earlier this year, takes steps in the same direction. America is mulling similar legislation of its own.

他們很可能是對(duì)的。數(shù)字廣告行業(yè)正在發(fā)生變化，這將適合大型科技挑戰(zhàn)者。蘋(píng)果公司本身對(duì)這個(gè)可能是最重要的發(fā)展負(fù)有部分責(zé)任。其去年推出的“應(yīng)用追蹤透明度”(ATT)規(guī)定，使得廣告商更難在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上追蹤用戶，并根據(jù)用戶的興趣向他們提供廣告。今年早些時(shí)候公布的歐盟《數(shù)字服務(wù)法案》也朝著相同的方向邁了一步。美國(guó)也在考慮自己的類似立法。

The crackdown on tracking has been especially hard on platforms that serve display ads, which target consumers on the basis of their interests, as opposed to things they have actively searched for. Meta, whose social networks specialise in such ads, said in February that att would knock $10bn off its ad business this year. It is trying to develop other ways of divining consumers’ interests. So are smaller platforms reliant on display ads, but their task is more difficult without Meta’s deep pockets. Or at least that is how investors see it: Snap’s market value has plummeted by 85%, or $102bn, in the past 12 months.

對(duì)追蹤的打擊是對(duì)那些提供展示廣告的平臺(tái)的嚴(yán)厲打擊。展示廣告是根據(jù)消費(fèi)者的興趣，而不是他們主動(dòng)搜索的內(nèi)容來(lái)定位消費(fèi)者的。Meta的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)專門做這類廣告。該公司今年2月表示，ATT將導(dǎo)致其今年的廣告業(yè)務(wù)減少100億美元。它正試圖開(kāi)發(fā)其他方法來(lái)“發(fā)現(xiàn)”消費(fèi)者的興趣。依賴展示廣告的小型平臺(tái)也是如此，但他們沒(méi)有Meta雄厚的財(cái)力，它們的任務(wù)將更加艱巨。至少投資者是這么看的：Snap的市值在過(guò)去12個(gè)月里暴跌了85%，即1020億美元。

Amazon, Apple and Microsoft, by contrast, are insulated against anti-tracking initiatives. They rely mostly on “first party” data of their own. Amazon’s ads are based on what users search for on its site: type “socks” into its search bar and you will see sponsored promotions for exactly that. Microsoft’s Bing is similarly immune. LinkedIn is probably less so, though Microsoft could theoretically use data from Bing to fine-tune the ads shown to LinkedIn users (at the moment it does not, though it has looked into it). Ads on Apple’s app store follow the same principle as Amazon: search for TikTok, say, and you may see an ad for a rival app like Pinterest. Apple is rumoured to be preparing to introduce ads on its Maps app, to promote local businesses. Through its move into payments it could learn about customers’ shopping habits. None of this would require tracking, since the behaviour all happens on Apple’s platform.

相比之下，亞馬遜、蘋(píng)果和微軟則不受反跟蹤舉措的影響。它們主要依靠自己的“一手”數(shù)據(jù)。亞馬遜的廣告是基于用戶在其網(wǎng)站上搜索的內(nèi)容：在搜索欄中輸入“襪子”，你就會(huì)看到相應(yīng)的贊助商促銷活動(dòng)。微軟的必應(yīng)同樣不受影響。LinkedIn可能就沒(méi)那么好了，盡管理論上，微軟可以利用必應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)微調(diào)向LinkedIn用戶展示的廣告(目前它還沒(méi)有這樣做，但它已經(jīng)在研究這個(gè)問(wèn)題)。蘋(píng)果應(yīng)用商店的廣告遵循與亞馬遜相同的原則：比如，搜索TikTok，你可能會(huì)看到Pinterest等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手應(yīng)用的廣告。據(jù)傳，蘋(píng)果正準(zhǔn)備在其地圖應(yīng)用中引入廣告，以宣傳當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)。通過(guò)進(jìn)軍支付領(lǐng)域，它可以了解客戶的購(gòu)物習(xí)慣。所有這些都不需要跟蹤，因?yàn)樗行袨槎及l(fā)生在蘋(píng)果的平臺(tái)上。

The other big change coming to advertising is the migration of television-viewing from broadcast and cable to internet-connected tvs, capable of delivering targeted ads. Amazon has already shown ads alongside sport on its Prime Video streaming service. Apple has done the same on Apple tv+, and may yet launch an ad-supported subscription tier, as rivals such as Netflix and Disney+ soon will. Microsoft has no tv offering, but its acquisition earlier this year of Xandr, an ad-tech company, has given it a foothold in serving ads for other streamers. In July Netflix chose Microsoft to run its forthcoming ad business—to disappointment at Google, which had bid for the contract, and to some surprise at Microsoft itself.

廣告業(yè)的另一個(gè)重大變化是，觀看電視的觀眾從廣播和有線電視轉(zhuǎn)移到能夠傳遞定向廣告的聯(lián)網(wǎng)電視上。亞馬遜已經(jīng)在其Prime Video流媒體服務(wù)上播放了體育廣告。蘋(píng)果在Apple tv+上也采取了同樣的做法，并可能推出廣告支持的訂閱層，Netflix和Disney+等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手很快也將推出。微軟沒(méi)有提供電視服務(wù)，但它在今年早些時(shí)候收購(gòu)了廣告技術(shù)公司Xandr，這使它在為其他流媒體提供廣告服務(wù)方面取得穩(wěn)固地位。今年7月，Netflix選擇微軟來(lái)運(yùn)營(yíng)其即將推出的廣告業(yè)務(wù)，這讓競(jìng)標(biāo)合同的谷歌感到失望，也讓微軟自己有些吃驚。

Digital advertising is spreading into other markets where the new challengers are well positioned. Audio is undergoing a similar digitisation to video, as listening switches to streamed music and podcasting. This presents an opportunity for Amazon and Apple, both of which have audio-streaming services and make smart speakers. Both also have voice-activated assistants, Alexa and Siri, who could just as easily bark out promotions as take orders. Amazon sees Alexa as a future saleswoman as well as a servant.

數(shù)字廣告正蔓延到其他市場(chǎng)，在這些市場(chǎng)中，新的挑戰(zhàn)者占據(jù)了有利地位。隨著收聽(tīng)轉(zhuǎn)向流媒體音樂(lè)和播客，音頻正在經(jīng)歷與視頻類似的數(shù)字化。這給亞馬遜和蘋(píng)果帶來(lái)了機(jī)會(huì)，這兩家公司都有音頻流媒體服務(wù)，也都生產(chǎn)智能音箱。兩家公司都有語(yǔ)音激活的助手Alexa和Siri，它們可以像下單一樣輕松地發(fā)出促銷信息。亞馬遜將Alexa視為未來(lái)的銷售員和仆人。

Meanwhile, Microsoft’s pending acquisition of Activision Blizzard, a video-gaming giant, will make it a powerful force in that fast-growing and increasingly ad-supported industry. Its Xbox console already shows some ads on the user’s on-screen “dashboard” and will reportedly soon offer more help for developers to sell in-game ads. Activision’s units include King, the maker of “Candy Crush”; last year King generated revenue of $2.6bn from ads and in-game purchases by its quarter of a billion players.

與此同時(shí)，微軟即將獲批的視頻游戲巨頭動(dòng)視暴雪的收購(gòu)案，這將使其成為這個(gè)快速增長(zhǎng)、越來(lái)越靠廣告支持的行業(yè)的一支強(qiáng)大力量。它的Xbox游戲機(jī)已經(jīng)在用戶的屏幕“儀表盤(pán)”上顯示了一些廣告，據(jù)報(bào)道，它很快將為開(kāi)發(fā)者銷售游戲內(nèi)廣告提供更多幫助。動(dòng)視旗下包括《糖果粉碎傳奇》的制作商King；去年，King的2.5億玩家通過(guò)廣告和游戲內(nèi)購(gòu)買中產(chǎn)生了26億美元的收入。

As digital ads work their way into ever more corners of the economy, “a new order is going to materialise,” believes Mr Lipsman. He thinks that Amazon will overtake Meta in total advertising revenue, possibly within five years. Google is better placed to take advantage of the coming changes, with its healthy search ads and its vast YouTube video and audio services. Still, it will find things more competitive in future. The incumbent digital-ad duo might have hoped that, as ever more advertising went online, their empires would only expand. It looks instead as if new rivals will reach into their business.

利普斯曼先生相信，隨著數(shù)字廣告進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟(jì)的更多角落，“一種新的秩序?qū)?huì)出現(xiàn)”。他認(rèn)為，可能在五年內(nèi)，亞馬遜的廣告總收入將超過(guò)Meta。谷歌憑借其茁壯的的搜索廣告和龐大的YouTube視頻和音頻服務(wù)，能夠更好地利用即將到來(lái)的變化。不過(guò)，未來(lái)它會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更加激烈。現(xiàn)在的數(shù)字廣告兩強(qiáng)壟斷可能希望，隨著越來(lái)越多的廣告進(jìn)入網(wǎng)絡(luò)，他們的帝國(guó)可以繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張。不過(guò)，看起來(lái)新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手將涉足他們的業(yè)務(wù)。