文章來源：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》Jul 22th 2023 期 Leaders 欄目 Extreme temperatures

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The best?thing that has happened in Phoenix, Arizona, since the beginning of July is that the electricity grid has kept functioning.?This has meant that during a record-breaking run of daily maximum temperatures above 43°C (110°F), still in progress as The Economist went to press, the houses, indoor workplaces and publicly accessible “cooling stations” in the city have been air-conditioned.?There have been deaths from heat stroke and there will be more; there has been a lot of suffering; and there will have been real economic losses.?But if Arizona’s grid had gone out, according to an academic quoted in “The Heat Will Kill You First”, a new book, America would have seen “the Hurricane Katrina of extreme heat”.

自7月初以來，亞利桑那州鳳凰城最美好的事情就是電網(wǎng)一直正常運(yùn)行。這意味著，每日最高氣溫超過 43攝氏度 (110華氏度) 且在高溫持續(xù)天數(shù)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的過程中（截至《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》發(fā)稿時(shí)仍在破紀(jì)錄），該市的房屋、室內(nèi)工作場(chǎng)所和公眾可使用的 "避暑站 "都安裝了空調(diào)。有人已中暑身亡，將還會(huì)有更多此類情況發(fā)生；許多人在受苦受難；還會(huì)導(dǎo)致實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。但是，據(jù)新書《酷熱會(huì)先殺死你》中引用一位學(xué)者的話說，如果亞利桑那州的電網(wǎng)癱瘓了，美國就會(huì)出現(xiàn) "極端酷熱的卡特里娜颶風(fēng)"。

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It is not just the United States, where 100m people are under heat-advisory notices, that is suffering. There is currently a spate of such heatwaves around the world.?Much of the Mediterranean is in similar straits, with temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F) from Madrid to Cairo (which is suffering power cuts).?By increasing the odds of a wide range of extreme events, global warming also increases the chances that they will come in waves.

美國有1億人受到高溫影響。不僅僅只有美國受災(zāi)，目前全球范圍內(nèi)也出現(xiàn)了一系列的熱浪。地中海大部分地區(qū)也處于類似的困境中，馬德里，開羅（正在停電）等城市氣溫都超過了 40 攝氏度（104 華氏度）。全球變暖增加了各種極端事件發(fā)生的幾率，也增加了極端事件一波接一波出現(xiàn)的幾率。

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Unbearable heat does damage in various ways, including killing crops and livestock, but the immediate challenge it poses to human health is greatest in cities.?Less vegetation, more sunlight-absorbing tarmac and more waste heat produce what is called the urban-heat-island effect, exacerbating temperatures.?Cities also often have poor air quality, particularly in the places where the poorest people live; extreme heat on top of dirty air can stretch already hard-pressed lungs and hearts too far.

難耐的酷暑會(huì)造成各種損害，包括摧毀農(nóng)作物和殺死牲畜，但城市人會(huì)受到直接的影響，他們的健康面臨最嚴(yán)重的挑戰(zhàn)。城市中的植被更少、吸熱的柏油路面更多，更多的廢熱產(chǎn)生了“城市熱島效應(yīng)”，加劇了氣溫的升高。城市的空氣質(zhì)量通常也很差，尤其是在最窮的人居住的地方；極度炎熱加上污濁的空氣，會(huì)讓本已不堪重負(fù)的肺和心臟造成更大負(fù)擔(dān)。

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There are things to do as soon as the mercury rises.?Get homeless people to cooling stations; encourage people to look in on elderly neighbours and relatives (the old, especially women over 80, dominate the excess deaths associated with heatwaves);?make it possible for those who must work outside to do so very early in the morning; put hospitals on an emergency footing.?The appointment of chief heat officers empowered to co-ordinate such things in American cities, and farther afield, is a welcome trend.

溫度計(jì)水銀柱一升高，我們就需要立即采取行動(dòng)。將無家可歸的人送往避暑站；鼓勵(lì)人們關(guān)心年邁的鄰居和親戚（老年人，尤其是 80 歲以上的女性，在熱浪致死人數(shù)中占多數(shù)）；讓那些室外工作者能夠在清晨工作（避免在高溫時(shí)段勞作）；應(yīng)該將醫(yī)院置于緊急接診狀態(tài)。美國城市及其他地方設(shè)立“首席高溫事務(wù)官”負(fù)責(zé)協(xié)調(diào)這些事務(wù)，這是一個(gè)非常非常受歡迎的舉措。

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There are also things to be done in advance. It is crucial to work out where the people at greatest risk live.?One thing that can help is deciding where to plant trees, which both provide shade and, as water evaporates through their leaves, cool the air.?(It is probably best to work out how to keep them green using wastewater, too, especially if, like the people of Phoenix, you live in a desert.)?There are smart choices to be made about the built environment, from the best sort of pavement and courtyards designed for passive cooling to the prevalence of white roofs;?there are building codes to update so as to make those choices easier, as well as regulations to change so that workers are not endangered by midday heat.

還有一些事情需要提前做好。關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)是要確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大的人住在哪里。一項(xiàng)有益的事情是種植樹木，樹木既可以提供陰涼，又能通過蒸發(fā)樹葉水分降低空氣溫度。（如果你像鳳凰城的人們一樣生活在沙漠地區(qū)，最好是想辦法利用廢水保持樹木的綠化。）在建筑環(huán)境方面有明智的選擇，比如選擇最佳的鋪裝材料和設(shè)計(jì)被動(dòng)降溫的庭院，還有普及白色屋頂；建筑條例需要更新，使這些措施更容易落實(shí)到位，法規(guī)也需要修改，以確保工人不會(huì)受到正午高溫的危害。

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All these measures are easier to take when a city has resources to devote to them.?In the developing world, where a lack of air conditioning makes heat all the more deadly, such resources are scarce.?All the more need for leaders to take the issue seriously and for local politicians to see cooling plans as a way to compete for votes.?Unfortunately, such a strategy works best in places where voters have already felt the consequences of failing to act.?That makes studies which reveal that many places are at increasing risk of vicious heatwaves but have yet to experience one particularly troubling.?Phoenix at least knows what to expect—and what it will have to go on expecting for decades to come.

當(dāng)一個(gè)城市有資源投入時(shí)，采取行動(dòng)就更容易。然而，發(fā)展中國家由于空調(diào)資源的稀缺，因此酷熱更加致命。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人更需要認(rèn)真對(duì)待這個(gè)問題，當(dāng)?shù)卣缛耸恳矐?yīng)將降溫計(jì)劃視為爭(zhēng)取選民支持的一種方式。遺憾的是，在選民已經(jīng)感受到不采取行動(dòng)的后果的地方，這樣的策略效果最好。這就使得那些揭示許多地方正面臨越來越嚴(yán)重的熱浪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但尚未經(jīng)歷過熱浪的研究尤其令人擔(dān)憂。至少鳳凰城知道會(huì)發(fā)生什么，以及未來幾十年將繼續(xù)面對(duì)什么問題。