Climate Science

This image is called The Blue Marble, and it was taken in 1972 during the Apollo 17 mission. It has become a symbol not only of cool space travel, but the environmental movement back here on the ground. Think about it, when you're on the Earth seems pretty dang big and solid, but when seen from far above, it's just a blue marble flexed with beautiful green, inspiring, isolated and not really all that big. And thanks to technologies like air travel, in the Internet and to a booming human population, it keeps feeling smaller. And thanks to technologies and a booming human population, it keeps losing all those all important green flux. Today, our topic is the history of climate science, which leads to some dark questions about the future of life on Earth.

Scientists tend to be conservative, not politically conservative, but careful, resistant to big claims..So evidence for the possible end of the living world took a while to be seen as such. One problem was the structure of modern science. Remember how those ancient Greek, indian and Chinese natural philosophers tended to study astronomy, math, the living world and human society all at once. By the 1900s, professional scientists had gone in the other direction. Special Ization scientists tended to focus on learning about one specific thing, often practically oriented thing. Another problem was actually epidemic. Studying weather patterns in one region is useful, but how do you study global climate? How many local patterns add up to a global one? And there are so many elements involved in the earth's systems? Solar radiation, human activity, carbon, nitrogen, water, non humans, how do you know which variables matter? In answering any given question? Big data suddenly becomes not a source of potential answers, but a serious problem. So how did we get here? English inventor Guy Calendar correctly predicted rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 1938. He analyzed measurements of temperatures from the 19th century. On correlating them with measurements of carbon dioxide. He saw that temperature had increased, and proposed that this was an effect of increasing CO2. Most scientists were skeptical, but Calendar died convinced he was onto something, and his work influenced a small number of scientists. In 1957, rebel published a paper with Han Sous suggesting that human emissions of greenhouse gases like CO2 might create a greenhouse effect. These heat trapping gases would be trapped in the atmosphere, not absorbed quickly enough by the oceans, which would cause global warming. Rebel also convinced the geochemist Charles Keeling to keep measuring atmospheric co concentrations at Manolo Observatory, starting in 1958. These measurements showed seasonal variation as well as a clear arc. Over time, the planet is warming, and CO2 is rising. This trend is called the keyling curve. In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, which has become the premier body for establishing just what is going on with the earth's climate. And in 1996, the governments of the world came together to ban chlorophlorocarbons, or cfcs, a group of odorless chemicals that were used in hair sprays, refrigerators and lots of other places, and that were causing a hole in the earth's protective ozone layer. And by the 2000s, many scientists had overcome their conservatism to speak out about global shifts in climate which were affecting living systems of all sorts, agriculture, cities and, you know, everything. In 2000, atmosphere chemists Paul Crutson coined a term for these global shifts, and however imperfect, it has stuck the anthropysine, or the Age of man. Some scholars have called into question the naming of this era after the human as if all humans are equally to blame. But if in some other pretty good contenders for the naming of this age, donna Harrowways, the Cathhula scene, or The Age of Science fictional badness, the man Throposine, or The Age of Dudes, which not so suddenly hints at the gender bias in science, and catching on with some historians, the capitalist scene, or the age of political economics. This is a fight among historians over how to discuss long duret history, or history across many millennia. It's also a fight among geologists about where to place the so called Golden Spikes, moments that represent shifts in the very makeup of the Earth, usually visible shifts in the fossil record. In fact, the Anthropocene is kind of a political fight about the intersection of geological epochs and human history. The problem with the Anthropocene is there are so many good candidates for the golden spike of a human epoch. Show us thought bubble 1st. There's the original fossil fuel coal, which was mind extensively in certain regions, starting in the late 1700s and ramping up seriously in the late 1800s the Industrial Revolution. 2nd there's radioactive material in the form of Stratum 90, which could be traced all over the world soon after the Trinity atomic bomb test, the 1st of many such tests. So this date for the beginning of the Anthropocene would be the specific date of july 16 1945, the day of the Trinity test and the birth of the Cold War. 3rd, there's plastic, steel and concrete, but especially plastic. Humans built stuff, and even had plastic before World War Two. But development took off at an unprecedented pace around 1960. This great acceleration saw rapid, often exponential growth in human population, use of fresh water, ability to produce and move food, greenhouse gas emissions, temperature of the earth's surface, and consumption of all kinds of natural resources. The period of the Great Acceleration also gave rise to the 1st megacities, or urban areas, with over ten In reaction to massive urbanization, humans have also set aside more land as national parks or greenways, creating a landscape dominated by industrial agriculture and cities, but also sporting well defined breaks of deep green. All of these changes can be seen in the earth's geological record, and they all symbolize how some humans have changed the physical world. But perhaps the best candidate is for chicken bones. With more than 23 billion alive at any time, chickens whose bodies have been heavily designed by humans are the most common terrestrial vertebrate species on the planet. Aliens visiting the ruins of Earth could reasonably conclude from our fossil record that the only life form that ever mattered on this planet was the chicken. Thanks thought bubble. But the Anthropocene is only one way of viewing geological change in human disruption of natural cycles. Also influential are the planetary boundaries, a set of nine specific ranges for natural processes within which humans can definitely live. These include measures such as climate change, ocean acidification and ozone depletion, but also the genetic diversity of life on Earth, and how much land is converted to crop land. So we can't talk about climate disruption without mentioning the pushback, even though the vast majority of scientists realize that humans have had a tremendous impact on the Earth. Politically conservative talk shows run stories about how there's no consensus. So where did this idea come from? In 2010, geologist and historian of science naomi Orrescus and NASA historian Eric Conway, showed that fossil fuel companies had hired some of the same PR agents and strategists who had worked for tobacco companies decades earlier to invent climate denial, that is, to create doubt about the science that was not doubted by scientists. Ultimately, climate science isn't just about long term shifts in the movement of carbon, water, heat and other natural phenomenon. The big question for scientists in the capitalist scene include epistemic, technical and moral ones. Epistemic questions include how fast are humans, especially humans, working with capitalism, changing which ecosystems, and in what ways? E.G. we know that many important pollinators, such as honeybees, bumblebees and butterflies, are dying out, which is sad, but also potentially an enormous problem. And we have some ideas as to why a major causes off target damage from pesticides, which no surprise, literally are made to kill bugs, which pesticides affect which bugs in which ways? Are there safe options? Can we test lots of different ways of doing agriculture and see which ones are most bug friendly and which forms of agriculture are most likely to erod soil from the land in which are helping build the soil back up. Basically, what kinds of knowledge do we need to make to day in a connected, fragile and increasingly disrupted world? In terms of technical questions, earth scientists are increasingly being pushed from the role of description to recommending action. Some prominent scientists are calling for governments to seriously consider geoengineering, also known as climate engineering, the intentional global scale transformation of the environment to combat global warming and other disruption. Some geo engineering would be relatively uncontroversial, like creating more forests. But other ideas have been hotly debated, like fertilizing the ocean with iron to accelerate the growth of algae, thus capturing more CO2 from the atmosphere. But perhaps the biggest shift in professional science in today is moral Who should pay for solutions to global scale problems, such as sea level rise, in global warming? Everyone, or only the people who most contributed to the problem. The Yellow Vest movement in France is a recent example of this conflict. People across the country were subject to a new tax on fuel in order to help lower carbon emissions, but many of the working poor, especially in more rural areas, simply couldn't afford to pay more to get around, and riots broke out. And think about all of the scientists working on topics related to the environment. But maybe on the wrong side of history. What if you're a professional geologist and Exxon, BP or Shell hired you to find more fossil fuels to extract, should you not do the science you've already spent a decade getting really good at? Isn't the portrait of doomsday, but a call to reflect on science's strengths and its limits. Science alone can't answer tough questions about how humanity should address climate disruption, and who should pay for potential solutions. One thing is sir, whether we call it the anthropocene, the capitalist scene, or the Kathu the scene, the new era in which some humans have dragged the blue marble will forever change how we make and share knowledge and tools. Next time, we'll finish the series with a look at how science is gendered. Not only how important women have been to the history of science, and how difficult it is to sometimes tell their stories, but also how our understandings of the natural world reflect our ideas about humanity. Crash course, history of science is filmed in the Doctor Shale Sea Kinney studio in Msoula, montana, and it's made with the help all of these nice people. And our animation team is thought Cafe. Crash Course is a complexly production. If you want to keep imagining the world complexly with us, you can check out some of our other channels, like Animal Wonders, the Art Assignment and Sicho psych And if you would like to keep Crash Course free for everybody forever, you can support the series on Patrion, a crowd funding platform that allows you to support the content you love. Thank you to all of our patrons for making Crash Course possible with their continue support.?

這張照片被稱為“藍(lán)色大理石”，拍攝于1972年阿波羅17號執(zhí)行任務(wù)期間。它不僅是酷炫的太空旅行的象征，也是地球上環(huán)保運動的象征。想想看，當(dāng)你在地球上的時候，它看起來又大又堅固，但從高處看，它只是一個藍(lán)色的大理石，彎曲著美麗的綠色，鼓舞人心，孤立的，并不是那么大。由于航空旅行、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和人口激增等技術(shù)的發(fā)展，它讓人感覺越來越小。由于科技的發(fā)展和人口的增長，它一直在失去所有這些重要的綠色通量。今天，我們的主題是氣候科學(xué)史，它引出了一些關(guān)于地球生命未來的黑暗問題。

科學(xué)家往往是保守的，不是政治上的保守，而是謹(jǐn)慎的，抵制大的主張。因此，生命世界可能終結(jié)的證據(jù)需要一段時間才能得到認(rèn)可。一個問題是現(xiàn)代科學(xué)的結(jié)構(gòu)。還記得那些古希臘、印度和中國的自然哲學(xué)家是如何傾向于同時研究天文學(xué)、數(shù)學(xué)、生物世界和人類社會的嗎？到了20世紀(jì)，專業(yè)科學(xué)家們已經(jīng)走上了另一個方向。特殊化科學(xué)家傾向于專注于學(xué)習(xí)一件具體的事情，通常是面向?qū)嶋H的事情。另一個問題實際上是流行病。研究一個地區(qū)的天氣模式是有用的，但如何研究全球氣候呢？多少個局部模式加起來就是一個全球模式？地球系統(tǒng)中有這么多元素？太陽輻射，人類活動，碳，氮，水，非人類，你怎么知道哪些變量是重要的？在回答任何給定的問題時？大數(shù)據(jù)突然間不再是潛在答案的來源，而是一個嚴(yán)重的問題。那么我們是怎么走到這一步的呢？1938年，英國發(fā)明家蓋伊·Calendar正確地預(yù)測了大氣中二氧化碳濃度的上升。他分析了19世紀(jì)以來的溫度測量數(shù)據(jù)。將它們與二氧化碳的測量相關(guān)聯(lián)。他發(fā)現(xiàn)溫度升高了，并提出這是二氧化碳增加的結(jié)果。大多數(shù)科學(xué)家都持懷疑態(tài)度，但Calendar去世時確信他是對的，他的工作影響了一小部分科學(xué)家。1957年，rebel和HanSous發(fā)表了一篇論文，指出人類排放二氧化碳等溫室氣體可能會造成溫室效應(yīng)。這些吸熱氣體會被困在大氣中，不能被海洋迅速吸收，從而導(dǎo)致全球變暖。Rebel還說服了地球化學(xué)家CharlesKeeling從1958年開始在Manolo天文臺持續(xù)測量大氣co濃度。這些測量結(jié)果顯示出季節(jié)變化和明顯的弧線。隨著時間的推移，地球正在變暖，二氧化碳正在上升。這種趨勢被稱為keyling曲線。1988年，世界氣象組織(WorldMeteorologicalOrganization)成立了政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange，簡稱IPCC)，該機構(gòu)已成為確定地球氣候狀況的首要機構(gòu)。1996年，世界各國政府聯(lián)合起來禁止使用氯氟烴(簡稱cfcs)，這是一種無味的化學(xué)物質(zhì)，用于發(fā)膠、冰箱和許多其他地方，它會在地球的臭氧層上造成一個洞。到了2000年代，許多科學(xué)家已經(jīng)克服了他們的保守主義，大聲說出全球氣候變化正在影響各種各樣的生命系統(tǒng)，農(nóng)業(yè)，城市，你知道，一切。2000年，大氣化學(xué)家保羅·克特森(PaulCrutson)為這些全球變化創(chuàng)造了一個術(shù)語，盡管不完美，但它還是被稱為“人類時代”(anthropysine)。一些學(xué)者質(zhì)疑以人類的名字命名這個時代，好像所有的人類都有責(zé)任。但如果在其他一些很有可能命名這個時代的競爭者中，唐娜·哈羅威斯，卡蘇拉場景，或者是虛構(gòu)的邪惡科學(xué)時代，男人Throposine，或者是男人的時代，這并不那么突然地暗示了科學(xué)中的性別偏見，并且引起了一些歷史學(xué)家的注意，資本主義場景，或者是政治經(jīng)濟學(xué)時代。這是歷史學(xué)家之間關(guān)于如何討論漫長的歷史或跨越數(shù)千年的歷史的爭論。這也是地質(zhì)學(xué)家之間關(guān)于所謂的“金尖峰”的爭論，這些時刻代表著地球構(gòu)成的變化，通常是化石記錄中可見的變化。事實上，人類世是一場關(guān)于地質(zhì)時代和人類歷史交集的政治斗爭。人類世的問題在于，人類時代的黃金尖峰有太多好的候選點了。先讓我們看看思想泡泡。一種是原始的化石燃料煤，在某些地區(qū)廣泛使用，從18世紀(jì)末開始，到19世紀(jì)末工業(yè)革命時，煤炭的使用急劇增加。第二，有放射性以90層形式存在的物質(zhì)；在三位一體原子彈試驗之后不久，全世界都可以追蹤到這一點，三位一體原子彈試驗是許多此類試驗中的第一次。所以這人類世開始的日期應(yīng)該是1945年7月16日，三位一體試驗和冷戰(zhàn)開始的那一天第三，有塑料、鋼鐵和混凝土，但尤其是塑料。人類建造東西，甚至在第二次世界大戰(zhàn)之前有塑料。但在1960年左右，發(fā)展以前所未有的速度起飛。這種巨大的加速導(dǎo)致了人口、淡水的使用、生產(chǎn)和運輸食物的能力、溫室氣體的排放、地球表面的溫度以及各種自然資源的消耗的迅速增長，通常是指數(shù)增長。大加速時期也產(chǎn)生了第一批特大城市，或城市地區(qū)，超過10個作為對大規(guī)模城市化的反應(yīng)，人類也留出了更多的土地作為國家公園或綠道，創(chuàng)造了一個以工業(yè)農(nóng)業(yè)和城市為主的景觀，但也有清晰的深綠色。所有這些變化都可以在地球的地質(zhì)記錄中看到，它們都象征著一些人類如何改變了物理世界。但也許最好的選擇是雞骨頭。任何時候都有超過230億只活著的雞，它們的身體被人類精心設(shè)計過，是地球上最常見的陸生脊椎動物。參觀地球廢墟的外星人可以合理地從我們的化石記錄中得出結(jié)論:在這個星球上唯一重要的生命形式是雞。謝謝思想泡泡。但人類世只是觀察人類破壞自然循環(huán)的地質(zhì)變化的一種方式。同樣有影響力的還有地球邊界，這是一組人類絕對可以生活的自然過程的九個特定范圍。這些措施包括氣候變化、海洋酸化和臭氧消耗等措施，還包括地球上生命的遺傳多樣性，以及有多少土地被轉(zhuǎn)化為農(nóng)田。因此，盡管絕大多數(shù)科學(xué)家都意識到人類對地球產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響，但談到氣候破壞，我們就不能不提到這種阻力。政治上保守的談話節(jié)目講述了如何沒有共識。那么這個想法是從哪里來的呢？2010年，地質(zhì)學(xué)家和科學(xué)歷史學(xué)家naomiOrrescus和NASA歷史學(xué)家EricConway指出，化石燃料公司雇傭了幾十年前為煙草公司工作過的公關(guān)代理人和戰(zhàn)略家來制造否認(rèn)氣候變化的說法，也就是說，對科學(xué)家沒有懷疑過的科學(xué)產(chǎn)生懷疑。歸根結(jié)底，氣候科學(xué)不僅僅是關(guān)于碳、水、熱量和其他自然現(xiàn)象運動的長期變化。資本主義領(lǐng)域的科學(xué)家面臨的大問題包括認(rèn)知、技術(shù)和道德問題。認(rèn)知問題包括人類，尤其是人類，與資本主義合作的速度有多快，改變了哪些生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，以何種方式改變？我們知道許多重要的傳粉媒介，如蜜蜂、大黃蜂和蝴蝶，正在滅絕，這很可悲，但也可能是一個巨大的問題。我們有一些關(guān)于為什么殺蟲劑會造成偏離目標(biāo)的傷害的想法，毫無疑問，殺蟲劑是用來殺死蟲子的，哪種殺蟲劑會以哪種方式影響哪種蟲子？有安全的選擇嗎？我們可以測試許多不同的農(nóng)業(yè)方式，看看哪些是最適合蟲子的，哪些農(nóng)業(yè)形式最有可能侵蝕土壤，幫助土壤恢復(fù)?；旧?，在當(dāng)今這個相互聯(lián)系、脆弱且日益混亂的世界里，我們需要什么樣的知識？在技術(shù)問題方面，地球科學(xué)家正日益被從描述的角色推向建議行動的角色。一些著名科學(xué)家呼吁各國政府認(rèn)真考慮地球工程，也被稱為氣候工程，這是一種全球范圍的環(huán)境改造，以對抗全球變暖和其他破壞。一些地球工程相對來說沒有爭議，比如創(chuàng)造更多的森林。但其他一些想法也引發(fā)了激烈的爭論，比如向海洋施肥以加速藻類的生長，從而從大氣中捕獲更多的二氧化碳。但是，當(dāng)今專業(yè)科學(xué)領(lǐng)域最大的轉(zhuǎn)變或許是道德問題。誰應(yīng)該為解決全球規(guī)模的問題買單，比如海平面上升、全球變暖？每個人，或者只對問題做出最大貢獻的人。法國的“黃背心”運動就是最近的一個例子。為了幫助降低碳排放，全國各地的人們都要繳納新的燃料稅，但許多貧困的勞動者，尤其是農(nóng)村地區(qū)的勞動者，根本負(fù)擔(dān)不起更多的出行費用，于是騷亂爆發(fā)了。想想所有研究環(huán)境相關(guān)課題的科學(xué)家。但也許站在了歷史錯誤的一邊。如果你是一名專業(yè)地質(zhì)學(xué)家，而?？松⒂突驓づ乒蛡蚰銇韺ふ腋嗟幕剂蟻黹_采，你應(yīng)該不做你已經(jīng)花了十年時間真正擅長的科學(xué)研究嗎？不是對世界末日的描繪，而是對科學(xué)的力量和局限性的反思?？茖W(xué)本身無法回答人類應(yīng)該如何應(yīng)對氣候破壞以及誰應(yīng)該為潛在的解決方案買單等棘手問題。有一件事是，先生，不管我們叫它人類世，資本主義時代，還是卡圖的場景，新時代的其中一些人類拖動的藍(lán)色彈珠將永遠(yuǎn)改變我們創(chuàng)造和分享知識和工具的方式。下次，我們將以科學(xué)是如何被性別化來結(jié)束這個系列。不僅僅是女性在歷史上的重要性講述他們的故事是多么困難，以及我們對自然世界的理解如何反映了我們對人性的看法?！犊茖W(xué)史速成班》在蒙大拿州姆蘇拉的ShaleSeaKinney博士工作室拍攝，得到了這些好心人的幫助。我們的動畫團隊是thoughtCafe。速成班是一個復(fù)雜的產(chǎn)品。如果你想繼續(xù)和我們一起想象這個復(fù)雜的世界，你可以看看我們的其他頻道，比如動物奇觀、藝術(shù)作業(yè)和精神科心理。如果你想讓速成班永遠(yuǎn)免費向所有人開放，你可以在Patrion上支持這個系列，這是一個眾籌平臺，可以讓你支持你喜歡的內(nèi)容。感謝所有的贊助人對速成班的持續(xù)支持。