India and Pakistan are choking on each other’s pollution

印度和巴基斯坦正因彼此的污染而窒息

Fixing the problem will require countries that hate each other to co-operate

解決這個問題需要這兩個互相憎恨的國家合作

[Paragraph 1]Indians are accustomed to seeing their streets getting a lick of paint or the odd pothole being filled before a senior politician or foreign dignitaries come to town. But to prepare for a visit from Narendra Modi, the prime minister, on February 10th, officials in Mumbai deployed a new tactic. They sprinkled its roads with water.

印度人習慣于在高層領(lǐng)導或外國政要來到鎮(zhèn)上視察時，將街道粉刷一新，或者把奇怪的坑洞填滿。但是為了迎接總理納倫德拉·莫迪2月10日的訪問，孟買的官員們部署了一個新策略。他們把水灑在路上。

[Paragraph 2]They hoped to damp down the street and construction dust that contributes to the city’s pervasive smog. For much of this winter, the skyscraper-filled skyline of India’s commercial capital has been almost invisible behind a grey haze of particulate matter. On some days the Arabian Sea city’s air has been worse than that in Delhi, India’s more famously polluted capital. Between November and the end of January, Mumbai recorded 36 days with “poor” air quality, a level at which even otherwise healthy people can have difficulty breathing. This represents a grim extension of what was already one of the world’s worst environmental problems.

希望能減少街道和建筑灰塵，這些灰塵導致了城市隨處可見的霧霾。在今年冬天的大部分時間里，這座印度商業(yè)首都摩天大樓林立的天際線幾乎被一層灰色的顆粒物霧霾所掩蓋。有幾天，這座阿拉伯海城市的空氣質(zhì)量甚至比印度污染更為嚴重的首都德里還要糟糕。從11月到1月底，孟買有36天空氣質(zhì)量為“差”，即使是健康的人也會呼吸困難。這代表著已經(jīng)是世界上最嚴重環(huán)境問題的嚴峻延伸。

[Paragraph 3]Delhi and nearby cities on the thickly-populated Indo-Gangetic Plain, which extends from Pakistan to Bangladesh, have long had the world’s filthiest air. Yet as industrialisation and infrastructure-building accelerate across the region, due in part to a post-pandemic growth spurt, the smog is spreading. According to a new analysis by the World Bank, nine of the world’s ten cities worst afflicted by air pollution are in South Asia. And, on February 12th, at the height of the winter smog season, only two of the ten most polluted places in India were in and around Delhi. The remainder, including Mumbai, were in western India.

從巴基斯坦到孟加拉國，人口稠密的中央平原上的德里和附近城市，長期以來一直是世界上空氣污染最嚴重的城市。然而，隨著該地區(qū)工業(yè)化和基礎設施建設的加速，部分原因是疫情后的經(jīng)濟快速復蘇，霧霾正在蔓延。根據(jù)世界銀行一項新的分析，世界上受空氣污染影響最嚴重的十個城市中有九個在南亞。此外，2月12日，在冬季霧霾季節(jié)最嚴重的時候，印度十個污染最嚴重的地方中只有兩個在德里及其周邊地區(qū)。其余的，包括孟買，都在印度西部。

[Paragraph 4]Earlier in the season the Pakistani cities of Karachi, also on the Arabian Sea, and Peshawar, near the border with Afghanistan, both briefly topped a global index of cities with the worst air quality. In Kathmandu, on the northern edge of the Indo-Gangetic Plain, the peaks of the snowy Himalayas that fringe Nepal’s capital have for weeks often been hidden by yellow-brown haze.

在這個季節(jié)的早些時候，巴基斯坦城市卡拉奇(同樣位于阿拉伯海沿岸)和白沙瓦(靠近阿富汗邊境)的空氣質(zhì)量一度位居全球空氣質(zhì)量最差城市指數(shù)的榜首。在印度-恒河平原北部邊緣的加德滿都，尼泊爾首都周圍白雪皚皚的喜馬拉雅山的山峰幾周來經(jīng)常被黃褐色的薄霧所掩蓋。

[Paragraph 5]South Asia’s filthy air takes a terrible toll on the health and economic prospects of millions. High levels of fine particulate matter, known as pm2.5, burrow deep into lungs and enter the bloodstream, increasing the risk of heart and lung disease as well as strokes. Air pollution is estimated to kill over 2m people in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan each year. Globally, it reduces average life expectancy by 2.9 years. The corresponding figure for India is five years. On the Indo-Gangetic Plain, according to a recent study, the average Indian life is up to seven years shorter due to air pollution than it would otherwise be.

南亞污濁的空氣對數(shù)百萬人的健康和經(jīng)濟前景造成了可怕的損害。pm2.5的細顆粒物深入肺部并進入血液，增加了心臟病和肺病以及中風的風險。據(jù)估計，在孟加拉國、印度、尼泊爾和巴基斯坦，空氣污染每年導致超過200萬人死亡。從全球來看，它使平均預期壽命減少了2.9年。印度的數(shù)字是五年。根據(jù)最近的一項研究，在印度恒河平原上，由于空氣污染，印度人的平均壽命比其他情況下短了7年。

[Paragraph 6]A study recently published in the Lancet, a medical journal, estimated that in 2019 India’s economy lost $37bn, or 1.4% of gdp, to pollution-related death and illness. Another study by the Clean Air Fund, an ngo, and the Confederation of Indian Industry, a trade body, calculated that India lost 1.3bn working days that year due to employees staying at home because they or their family members had pollution-linked illness. Pakistan’s province of Punjab, which accounts for 60% of the country’s output, has seen serious smog-related disruptions this winter; school holidays were extended, flights delayed or diverted and motorways closed overnight.

醫(yī)學雜志《柳葉刀》最近發(fā)表的一項研究估計，2019年，印度經(jīng)濟因污染相關(guān)的死亡和疾病損失了370億美元，占gdp的1.4%。非政府組織清潔空氣基金和貿(mào)易機構(gòu)印度工業(yè)聯(lián)合會的另一項研究計算出，由于員工或其家人患有與污染有關(guān)的疾病而居家，當年印度損失了13億個工作日。占巴基斯坦全國產(chǎn)量60%的旁遮普省，今年冬天經(jīng)歷了嚴重的霧霾危害；學校假期延長，航班延誤或改道，高速公路通宵關(guān)閉。

[Paragraph 7]Predictably, the poor see the worst of this. The Indo-Gangetic states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are among the poorest parts of South Asia—over 115m of their inhabitants live on less than $2 a day—and also the most polluted. Poor people are likelier to use dirty fuels, contributing to high levels of indoor pollution. Meanwhile, “the rich are trying to create a bubble for themselves with air purifiers,” says Karthik Ganesan of the Council on Energy Environment and Water, a think-tank in Delhi.

可以預見的是，貧窮國家看到了最糟糕的情況。印度恒河北方邦和比哈爾邦是南亞最貧窮的地區(qū)之一，有超過1.15億居民每天的生活費不足2美元，也是污染最嚴重的地區(qū)。窮人更有可能使用骯臟的燃料，這導致室內(nèi)污染嚴重。與此同時，“富人正試圖用空氣凈化器為自己制造泡沫，”德里智囊團能源、環(huán)境和水委員會的卡西克?甘尼桑說。

[Paragraph 8]Air pollution, which nonetheless affects rich and poor, however unevenly, is an urgent political concern across the region. Yet its governments’ mitigation efforts have mostly been ineffective. India launched its National Clean Air Programme in 2019 with the aim of improving air quality in 102 cities (later increased to 131). Four years on, only 38 are on track to hit their targets. Pollution in many of the rest, including Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai and Nagpur, has grown worse. Pakistan, beset by perma-crises, is vacillating over whether to launch a national clean air programme. Bangladesh drafted a clean air act in 2019 but has not passed it. Across South Asia, there has been “very little improvement [in air quality] despite policies in place to improve it,” says Hans Timmer of the World Bank.

然而，空氣污染對富人和窮人的影響，無論多么不均衡，都是該地區(qū)一個緊迫的政治問題?？墒钦木徑馀Υ蠖嗍菬o效的。印度于2019年啟動了國家清潔空氣計劃，旨在改善102個城市（后來增加到131個）的空氣質(zhì)量。四年過去了，只有38個城市有望實現(xiàn)目標。包括班加羅爾、欽奈、孟買和那格浦爾在內(nèi)的其他許多地方的污染已經(jīng)惡化。巴基斯坦受到長期環(huán)境危機的困擾，在是否啟動國家清潔空氣計劃的問題上猶豫不決。孟加拉國在2019年起草了一項清潔空氣法案，但尚未通過。世界銀行的漢斯·蒂莫爾說，在整個南亞，“盡管采取了改善空氣質(zhì)量的政策，但空氣質(zhì)量幾乎沒有改善”。

[Paragraph 9]There are many explanations for this failure, including the difficulty of regulating industry in a region where government is weak and corruption rife. Yet the biggest reason, the Bank suggests, is that policymakers are mostly trying to abate pollution within the cities concerned, and much of it originates elsewhere.

這一失敗有許多解釋，包括一個政府的軟弱、腐敗盛行的地區(qū)監(jiān)管工業(yè)的困難。然而，世行認為，最大的原因是政策制定者大多試圖減少城市的污染，而大部分污染來自其他地方。

[Paragraph 10]Take the smoke that arises in India’s state of Punjab every autumn when its million-odd farmers set fire to their stubble fields. It drifts eastwards, enveloping Delhi and other cities of the northern plain. Or the fug of pollution arising from the brick kilns that ring Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital. “In most cases less than 50% of the pollution is coming from the cities themselves,” says Mr Timmer. In three South Asian capitals, Colombo, Dhaka and Kathmandu, less than a third of air pollution comes from within the city. Around 30% of Indian Punjab’s pollution originates in Pakistan, while 30% of pollution in Bangladesh’s major cities has blown in from India.

以印度旁遮普邦每年秋天的濃煙為例，那里有數(shù)百萬農(nóng)民放火焚燒他們的殘茬地。濃煙向東漂移，包圍了德里和北部平原的其他城市。還有環(huán)繞孟加拉國首都達卡的磚窯造成的污染?！霸诖蠖鄶?shù)情況下，不到50%的污染來自城市本身，”蒂莫爾先生說。在三個南亞首都科倫坡、達卡和加德滿都，不到三分之一的空氣污染來自城市內(nèi)部。印度旁遮普省大約30%的污染來自巴基斯坦，而孟加拉國主要城市30%的污染來自印度。

[Paragraph 11]A better approach is to design and deploy controls across the far-flung zones, known as airsheds, in which air pollution circulates. This has been executed successfully in Europe and Chiqna, whose capital was until a few years ago as synonymous with smog as Delhi is today. Beijing’s air is much improved chiefly thanks to the creation, in 2013, of a powerful airshed-wide authority responsible for the capital city, Tianjin and 26 adjacent prefectures. In 2017 pm2.5 levels in Beijing were half those of the previous year.

一個更好的辦法是在空氣污染流通的偏遠地區(qū)(稱為氣棚)設計和部署控制措施。這在歐洲和中國已經(jīng)成功實施，直到幾年前，中國的首都還是霧霾的代名詞，就像今天的德里一樣。北京的空氣質(zhì)量有了很大改善，這主要歸功于2013年成立了一個權(quán)力很大的機構(gòu)，負責管理首都天津及其周邊26個地區(qū)。2017年，北京的pm2.5水平是上一年的一半。

[Paragraph 12]India is trying to follow this example in and around Delhi. In 2021 it launched a pollution-control agency, called the Commission for Air Quality Management (caqm), with responsibility for a 55,000-square-km area, encompassing the capital and parts of Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. It is home to 46m people. Its constituent authorities include Delhi and four states, several central-government ministries, and various universities and ngos. “The idea is not just to bulldoze, but to follow a practice by which everybody is taken into confidence,” says MM Kutty, the commission’s chairman.

印度正試圖在德里及其周邊地區(qū)效仿這一做法。2021年，印度成立了一個污染控制機構(gòu)，名為空氣質(zhì)量管理委員會（caqm），負責55，000平方公里的區(qū)域，包括首都和哈里亞納邦、拉賈斯坦邦和北方邦的部分地區(qū)。這是4600萬人的家園。它的組成當局包括德里和四個邦、幾個中央政府部委以及各種大學和非政府組織。委員會主席MM·庫蒂說：“這個想法不僅僅是推土機，而是遵循一種讓每個人都充滿信心的做法。”

[Paragraph 13]Though many have criticised the caqm’s pace of progress, the early results are promising. According to official figures, Delhi’s average daily concentrations of pm2.5 declined in 2022, the body’s first full year of operation, to 98 micrograms per cubic metre from 105 the previous year. The number of hours of “severe” pm2.5 fell from 628 to 204. Yet more significant progress, the Bank suggests, is going to require a massive expansion of this approach.

盡管許多人批評空氣質(zhì)量管理委員會的進展速度，但初步結(jié)果是有希望的。根據(jù)官方數(shù)據(jù)，2022年，德里pm2.5的日均濃度從上一年的每立方米105微克降至每立方米98微克，這是該機構(gòu)運營的第一個全年?！皣乐亍眕m2.5的小時數(shù)從628小時降至204小時。然而，世行認為，要取得更大的進展，還需要大規(guī)模擴展這一方法。

[Paragraph 14]It has identified six regional airsheds. They are vast areas, covering multiple urban, provincial and national jurisdictions. Significantly, four of the six span national borders. One stretches from eastern Iran into western Afghanistan and southern Pakistan; another covers much of north India and Bangladesh. According to the Bank’s modelling, the more co-ordinated the pollution controls adopted in these expanses, the more cost-effective and beneficial they would be.

它已經(jīng)確定了六個區(qū)域氣棚。這些都是廣闊的區(qū)域，涵蓋多個城市、省和國家管轄區(qū)。值得注意的是，這六個區(qū)域中有四個跨越國界。一條從伊朗東部延伸到阿富汗西部和巴基斯坦南部；另一個覆蓋了北印度和孟加拉國的大部分地區(qū)。根據(jù)世行的模型，在這些地區(qū)采取的污染控制措施越協(xié)調(diào)，成本效益和效益就越高。

[Paragraph 15]The ideal scenario, it suggests, would be for authorities within a given airshed to co-operate on data-sharing and policy formulation, while each working towards a locally determined target. This would allow them to prioritise relatively easy or low-cost forms of pollution control—such as regulating brick kilns—over more difficult or expensive sorts, such as closing coal-fired power stations. The Bank reckons that in this scenario South Asian life expectancies would rise, infant mortality would drop and health-care expenditure would fall. For a cost of $5.7bn, it estimates the approach could bring economic benefits worth $52.5bn by 2030.

它認為，理想的情況是，一個特定地區(qū)的當局在數(shù)據(jù)共享和政策制定方面進行合作，同時各自朝著當?shù)卮_定的目標努力。這將使他們能夠優(yōu)先考慮相對容易或成本較低的污染控制形式(如監(jiān)管磚窯) ，而不是更困難或更昂貴的污染控制形式(如關(guān)閉燃煤電廠)。世行估計，在這種情況下，南亞的預期壽命將會提高，嬰兒死亡率將會下降，醫(yī)療保健支出將會下降。據(jù)估計，到2030年，這種方法的成本為57億美元，可帶來價值525億美元的經(jīng)濟效益。

[Paragraph 16] The idea of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan—let alone Afghanistan and Iran—working together to such an extent is, the Bank’s authors concede, “far from straightforward”. It might almost seem absurd. South Asia is one of the most unneighbourly, least-integrated regions in the world. It is haunted by a history of war and mutual suspicion. Its cross-border linkages are meagre. Trade within the region is just 5% of its members’ total trade; the corresponding figure for East Asia is 50%, according to the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington, d.c.

世行的作者承認，孟加拉國、印度和巴基斯坦——更不用說阿富汗和伊朗——合作到如此程度的想法“遠非直截了當”。這似乎很荒謬。南亞是世界上最不友好、最不一體化的地區(qū)之一?？偸潜粦?zhàn)爭和相互猜疑的歷史所困擾?？缇陈?lián)系也很少。該區(qū)域內(nèi)的貿(mào)易僅占其成員國貿(mào)易總額的5%；根據(jù)華盛頓智庫布魯金斯學會的數(shù)據(jù)，東亞的相應數(shù)字是50%。

[Paragraph 17]Yet if anything could begin to knit the region’s divisions, perhaps the shared goal of helping its people breathe easier might. Air pollution is politically salient across South Asia and the very opposite of zero sum. The subcontinent’s winds blow back and forth; none of South Asia’s polluting countries and cities and villages is permanently upwind. To seriously reduce the blight from which all of them are suffering, they will all, in the end, have to co-operate.

然而，如果有什么可以開始緩解該地區(qū)的分歧，也許幫助其人民更輕松呼吸的共同目標可能會?？諝馕廴驹谀蟻喺紊虾芡怀?，與零和正好相反。次大陸的風來回吹；南亞的污染國家和城市村莊沒有一個是永久逆風的。為了真正減輕他們所有人所遭受的災難，他們最終都必須合作。