Areas of concern

頗受關(guān)注的領(lǐng)域

Parts of America may already be facing recession

美國部分領(lǐng)域可能已經(jīng)面臨經(jīng)濟衰退

Slowdowns in housing construction and manufacturing are ominous????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

住房建設(shè)和制造業(yè)放緩是不祥之兆

詞匯

Ominous/預兆的；不吉利的

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Aug 29th 2019 | WASHINGTON, DC

IT CAN BE hard to know when isolated announcements become something more. Since last November General Motors has cut several thousand factory jobs at plants across the Midwest. In early August US Steel said it would lay off 200 workers in Michigan. Sales of camper vans dropped by 23% in the 12 months ending in July, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of workers in Indiana, where many are made. Factory workers are not the only ones on edge. Lowes, a retailer, recently said it would slash thousands of jobs. Halliburton, an oil-services firm, is cutting too.

很難知道孤立的公告何時會變得更有意義。自去年11月以來，通用汽車公司在中西部地區(qū)的工廠裁員數(shù)千人。8月初，美國鋼鐵公司(US Steel)表示，將在密歇根州裁員200人。截至7月份的12個月里，露營車的銷量下降了23%，威脅到了印第安納州數(shù)千名工人的生計。并非只有工廠工人處于緊張狀態(tài)。零售商Lowes（勞氏公司）最近表示，將裁員數(shù)千人。石油服務公司哈里伯頓也在裁員。

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In any given month, even at the height of a boom, more than 5m Americans leave a job; nearly 2m are laid off. Most of the time, however, overall employment grows. But not all the time. America may or may not be lurching towards a recession now. For the time being employment and output continue to grow. But in the corners of the economy where trouble often rears its head earliest, there are disconcerting portents.

在任何一個月，即使是在經(jīng)濟繁榮的鼎盛時期，也有超過500萬美國人失業(yè);近200萬人被解雇。然而，大多數(shù)時候，總體就業(yè)在增長。但并非一直如此。美國現(xiàn)在可能會陷入衰退，也可能不會。目前，就業(yè)和產(chǎn)出繼續(xù)增長。但在經(jīng)濟中麻煩往往最先出現(xiàn)的領(lǐng)域，卻出現(xiàn)了令人不安的征兆。

詞匯

Lurch/東倒西歪地行駛

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Recessions are synchronised declines in economic activity; weak demand typically shows up in nearly every sector in an economy. But some parts of the economic landscape are more cyclical than others—that is, they have bigger booms and deeper slumps. Certain bits tend to crash in the earliest stages of a downturn whereas others weaken later. Every downturn is different. Those caused by a spike in oil prices, for example, progress through an economy in a different way from those precipitated by financial crises or tax increases.

衰退是經(jīng)濟活動同步下降;需求疲軟通常出現(xiàn)在一個經(jīng)濟體的幾乎所有領(lǐng)域。但是，經(jīng)濟格局的某些部分比其他部分更具周期性——也就是說，它們有更廣的繁榮和更深層次的衰退。在經(jīng)濟衰退的最初階段，某些部分往往會崩潰，而其他部分則會在隨后衰弱。每次衰退都是不同的。例如，由石油價格飆升引起的經(jīng)濟衰退進程與由金融危機或增稅引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟衰退進程方式不同。

詞匯

Precipitated/沉淀的；析出的

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But most recessions follow a cycle of tightening monetary policy, during which the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in order to prevent inflation from running too high. The first rumblings of downturns usually appear in areas in which growth depends heavily on the availability of affordable credit. Housing is often among the first sectors to wobble; as rates on mortgages go up, this chokes off new housing demand. In a paper published in 2007 Edward Leamer, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles, declared simply that “housing is the business cycle”. Recent history agrees.

但大多數(shù)衰退都遵循一個收緊貨幣政策的周期，在此期間，美聯(lián)儲上調(diào)利率，以防止通脹過高。經(jīng)濟增長在很大程度上依賴于可負擔得起的信貸供應的領(lǐng)域，往往會出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退的最初跡象。房地產(chǎn)往往是最先出現(xiàn)動蕩的行業(yè)之一;隨著抵押貸款利率上升，這抑制了新的住房需求。加州大學洛杉磯分校(University of California, Los Angeles)經(jīng)濟學家愛德華?利默(Edward Leamer)在2007年發(fā)表的一篇論文中簡單地宣稱，“房地產(chǎn)代表類商業(yè)周期”。近年來的經(jīng)濟狀況證實了這一點。

詞匯

Wobble/ ?搖晃；搖擺；游移不定

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Residential investment in America began to drop two years before the start of the Great Recession, and employment in the industry peaked in April 2006. Conditions in housing markets were rather exceptional at the time. But in the downturn before that, typically associated with the implosion of the dotcom boom, housing also sounded an early alarm. Employment in residential construction peaked precisely a year before the start of the downturn. And now? Residential investment has been shrinking since the beginning of 2018. Employment in the housing sector has fallen since March.

在大衰退開始前兩年，美國的住宅投資就開始下降，而該行業(yè)的就業(yè)在2006年4月達到頂峰。當時的房地產(chǎn)市場狀況相當特殊。但在此之前的低迷時期(通常與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)熱潮的內(nèi)爆有關(guān))，房地產(chǎn)市場也發(fā)出了早期警報。住宅建筑業(yè)的就業(yè)在經(jīng)濟衰退開始前一年達到頂峰。現(xiàn)在呢?自2018年初以來，住宅投資一直在萎縮。自3月份以來，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的就業(yè)人數(shù)一直在下降。

詞匯

Implosion/向內(nèi)破裂

Dotcom/因特網(wǎng)公司

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Things may yet turn around. The Fed reduced its main interest rate in July and could cut again in September. If buyers respond quickly it could give builders and the economy a lift. But housing is not the only warning sign.

情況可能還會好轉(zhuǎn)。美聯(lián)儲在7月份降低了主要利率，并可能在9月份再次降息。如果買家反應迅速，可能會提振建筑商和經(jīng)濟。但住房并不是唯一的警告信號。

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Manufacturing activity also tends to falter before other parts of an economy. When interest-rate increases push up the value of the dollar, exporters’ competitiveness in foreign markets suffers. Durable goods like cars or appliances pile up when credit is costlier.

制造業(yè)活動也往往比其他經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域先衰退。當利率上升推高美元價值時，出口商在國外市場的競爭力就會受到影響。當信貸成本上升時，汽車或家電等耐用品就會堆積如山。

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In the previous cycle, employment in durable-goods manufacturing peaked in June 2006, about a year and a half before the onset of recession. This year has been another brutal one for industry. An index of purchasing managers’ activity registered a decline in August. Since last December manufacturing output has fallen by 1.5%. Rather ominously, hours worked—considered to be a leading economic indicator—are declining. Some of this is linked to President Donald Trump’s trade wars, which have hurt manufacturers worldwide. But not all. Domestic vehicle sales have fallen in recent months, suggesting that Americans are getting more nervous about making big purchases.

在上一個經(jīng)濟周期中，耐用品制造業(yè)的雇傭人數(shù)在2006年6月達到頂峰，比經(jīng)濟衰退開始的時間早了一年半左右。對于整個行業(yè)來說，今年又是殘酷的一年。8月份采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)有所下降。自去年12月以來，制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出下降了1.5%。相當不祥的是，被認為是主要經(jīng)濟指標的工作時間正在減少。其中一些與唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)總統(tǒng)的貿(mào)|易|戰(zhàn)有關(guān)，這場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)傷害了全球制造商。但并不是所有。近幾個月來，美國國內(nèi)汽車銷量下降，這表明美國人對大額消費越來越有所顧慮。

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In some sectors, technological change makes it difficult to interpret the data. Soaring employment in oil industries used to be a bad sign for the American economy, since hiring in the sector tended to accompany consumer-crushing spikes in oil prices. But America now produces almost as much oil as it consumes, thanks to the shale-oil revolution. A recent fall in employment and hours in oil extraction may be a bad omen rather than a good one. By contrast, a fall in retail employment was once unambiguously bad news. But retail work in America has been in decline for two and a half years; ongoing shrinkage may not signal recession, but the structural economic shift towards e-commerce.

在某些領(lǐng)域，技術(shù)的變化使數(shù)據(jù)難以解釋。石油行業(yè)的就業(yè)人數(shù)激增曾是美國經(jīng)濟的一個壞兆頭，因為該行業(yè)的就業(yè)往往伴隨著石油價格的大幅上漲。但由于頁巖油革命，美國現(xiàn)在的石油產(chǎn)量幾乎與消費量相當。最近石油開采行業(yè)的就業(yè)率和工作時間的下降可能是一個壞兆頭，而不是一個好兆頭。相比之下，零售業(yè)就業(yè)率的下降曾是一個毫無疑問的壞消息。但是美國的零售業(yè)工作已經(jīng)下降了兩年半;持續(xù)的萎縮可能并不意味著經(jīng)濟衰退，而是結(jié)構(gòu)性的經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)向電子商務。

詞匯

Unambiguously/不含糊地；明白地；單意義地

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Other signals are less ambiguous. In recent decades employment in “temporary help services”—mostly staffing agencies—has reliably peaked about a year before the onset of recession. The turnaround in temporary employment in 2009 was among the “green shoots” taken to augur a long-awaited labour-market recovery. Since December it has fallen by 30,000 jobs.

其他信號則不那么模糊。近幾十年來，“臨時幫助服務”(主要是人力資源機構(gòu))的就業(yè)率在經(jīng)濟衰退開始前一年達到了頂峰。2009年臨時就業(yè)的好轉(zhuǎn)是期待已久的勞動力市場復蘇的“苗頭”之一。自去年12月以來，它已經(jīng)減少了3萬個工作崗位。

Even if America avoids a recession, the present slowdown may prove politically consequential. Weakness in some sectors, like retail, is spread fairly evenly across the country. But in others, like construction or, especially, manufacturing, the nagging pain of the moment is more concentrated (see map). Indiana lost over 100,000 manufacturing jobs in the last downturn, equal to nearly 4% of statewide employment. It is now among a modest but growing number of states experiencing falling employment: a list which also includes Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

即使美國避免了經(jīng)濟衰退，目前的經(jīng)濟放緩也可能帶來政治后果。零售等一些行業(yè)的疲軟在全國范圍內(nèi)分布得相當均勻。但在其他行業(yè)，比如建筑業(yè)，尤其是制造業(yè)，當下的痛苦更加集中(見地圖)。印第安納州在上次經(jīng)濟衰退中失去了超過10萬個制造業(yè)崗位，相當于全州就業(yè)人數(shù)的近4%。目前，美國有少數(shù)幾個州的就業(yè)率在下降，但這個數(shù)字還在增加:俄亥俄州、賓夕法尼亞州和密歇根州也在下降之列。

詞匯

Nagging/嘮叨的；挑剔的；使人不得安寧的

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Those four states, part of America’s manufacturing heartland, suffered both early and deeply during the Great Recession. In 2016 all delivered their electoral-college votes to Mr Trump, handing him the presidency. The president’s trade war might have been expected to play well in such places. But if the economic woe continues, voters’ faith in Mr Trump is anything but assured. Choked states might well turn Democrat-blue.

這四個州是美國制造業(yè)中心的一部分，在經(jīng)濟大蕭條時期遭受了早期和嚴重的打擊。2016年，所有人都把選舉人票投給了特朗普，讓他當上了總統(tǒng)。總統(tǒng)的貿(mào)|易|戰(zhàn)本來可能在這些地方打得很好。但如果經(jīng)濟困境持續(xù)下去，選民們對特朗普的信心絕不是板上釘釘?shù)氖?。發(fā)展受困的州也許會（將希望）轉(zhuǎn)向民主黨派。

詞匯

Woe/困難，災難

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