Economic journal 2023年第1期

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence

央行反擊了!財政影響下貨幣政策的可信度

Antoine Camous,?Dmitry Matveev

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 1–29,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac055

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?How should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policymakers? We contrast the implications of two monetary frameworks: one, where the central bank follows a standard rule aiming exclusively at price stability against the other, where monetary policy additionally leans against fiscal influence. The latter rule improves economic outcomes by providing appropriate incentives to the fiscal authority. More importantly, the additional fiscal conditionality can enhance the credibility of the central bank to achieve price stability. We emphasise how the level and structure of government debt emerge as key factors affecting the credibility of monetary policy with fiscal conditionality.

如果受到財政政策制定者的壓力，獨立的央行應(yīng)該如何應(yīng)對?我們對比了兩種貨幣框架的含義:一種是中央銀行遵循專門針對價格穩(wěn)定的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)規(guī)則，另一種是貨幣政策額外依賴于財政影響。后一種規(guī)則通過向財政當(dāng)局提供適當(dāng)?shù)募顏砀纳平?jīng)濟結(jié)果。更重要的是，額外的財政條件可以增強央行實現(xiàn)物價穩(wěn)定的可信度。我們強調(diào)，政府債務(wù)水平和結(jié)構(gòu)如何成為影響帶有財政條件的貨幣政策可信度的關(guān)鍵因素。

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2.Spatial Polarisation

社會空間極化

Fabio Cerina,?Elisa Dienesch,?Alessio Moro,?Michelle Rendall

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 30–69,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac040

?We document the emergence of?spatial polarisation?in the United States during the 1980–2008 period. This phenomenon is characterised by stronger employment polarisation in larger cities, both at the occupational and the worker levels. We quantitatively evaluate the role of technology in generating these patterns by constructing and calibrating a spatial equilibrium model. We find that faster skill-biased technological change in larger cities can account for a substantial fraction of spatial polarisation in the United States. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the differential increase in the share of low-skilled workers across city size is due mainly to the large demand by high-skilled workers for low-skilled services and, to a smaller extent, to the higher complementarity between low- and high-skilled workers in production relative to middle-skilled workers.

我們記錄了1980-2008年期間美國空間極化的出現(xiàn)。這一現(xiàn)象的特點是，在較大的城市，無論是在職業(yè)層面還是在工人層面，就業(yè)兩極分化都更嚴(yán)重。通過構(gòu)建和校準(zhǔn)空間平衡模型，我們定量評估了技術(shù)在生成這些模式中的作用。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在較大的城市中，更快的技能偏向性技術(shù)變革可以解釋美國空間極化的很大一部分。反事實分析表明，城市規(guī)模中低技能工人所占比例的差異增長主要是由于高技能工人對低技能服務(wù)的大量需求，在較小程度上是由于生產(chǎn)中低技能工人和高技能工人之間相對于中等技能工人具有更高的互補性。

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3.Trading Favours through the Revolving Door: Evidence from China’s Primary Land Market

通過旋轉(zhuǎn)門進行交易:來自中國主要土地市場的證據(jù)

Ting Chen,?Li Han,?James Kung,?Jiaxin Xie

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 70–97,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac060

?By matching data on land transactions in China’s primary land market with detailed curricula vitae of board directors in publicly listed firms, we identify a pattern of ‘revolving-door’ exchanges between local officials and firms. The officials discounted the price of land that they sold to the said firms, and were subsequently rewarded with board appointments upon retirement. Specifically, these ‘client officials’ are three times as likely to be recruited by the ‘patron firms’ as board directors and enjoy a salary that is 23% higher, and 81% more company shares by comparison with directors who did not help firms to secure cheap land deals. All of these, however, are conditional on patron firms being able to receive a price discount, which averaged 19.4% when they purchased them in normal times. However, when client officials were constrained from providing a price discount during a surprise audit, the likelihood of client officials recruited as board directors was halved, with the price discount and extra compensation received by the patrons and clients, respectively, vanishing altogether. By providing evidence of the reciprocal benefits received by both parties, we demonstrate that the revolving door is used as a ‘payment’ rather than a ‘connection’ device in the Chinese context.

通過將中國一級土地市場的土地交易數(shù)據(jù)與上市公司的詳細(xì)董事履歷進行匹配，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了地方官員與公司之間的"旋轉(zhuǎn)門"交流模式。這些官員打折出售給上述公司的土地價格，并在退休后獲得董事會任命作為獎勵。具體而言，與那些沒有幫助公司獲得廉價土地交易的董事相比，這些”客戶官員”被”客戶公司”聘用的可能性是董事會董事的三倍，并享有23%的高薪和81%的公司股份。然而，所有這些都是以客戶公司能夠獲得價格折扣為條件的，當(dāng)他們在正常情況下購買時，平均折扣為19.4%。然而，當(dāng)客戶官員在突擊審計中受到提供價格折扣的限制時，客戶官員被招募為董事會董事的可能性降低了一半，客戶和客戶分別獲得的價格折扣和額外報酬完全消失。通過提供雙方獲得互惠利益的證據(jù)，我們證明旋轉(zhuǎn)門在中國語境中被用作”支付”而不是”連接”設(shè)備。

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4.Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations

政策不確定性與信息流動:來自養(yǎng)老金改革預(yù)期的證據(jù)

Emanuele Ciani,?Adeline Delavande,?Ben Etheridge,?Marco Francesconi

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 98–129,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac050

?We examine how workers’ expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information availability and worker characteristics. Using newly collected data, we find that (1) expectations about reform are revised upward by about 10 percentage points in the year prior to a reform, from a median of 50%, regardless of whether the reform is announced; (2) expectations increase more the stronger the media activity about imminent reforms; (3) the effect of information on expectations varies systematically with characteristics that proxy cognitive ability and information value; (4) expectations do not converge as a result of reform announcements or implementations.

本文考察了勞動者對養(yǎng)老金改革的預(yù)期如何隨改革的臨近程度、信息可得性和勞動者特征而變化。利用新收集的數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)無論是否宣布改革，改革前一年對改革的預(yù)期從50%的中位數(shù)上調(diào)了約10個百分點;(2)對即將到來的改革的媒體活動越強烈，預(yù)期越高;(3)信息對期望的影響隨代理認(rèn)知能力和信息價值的特征而系統(tǒng)變化;(4)預(yù)期不因改革公告或?qū)嵤┒諗俊?/p>

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5. Estimating Cross-Industry Cross-Country Interaction Models Using Benchmark Industry Characteristics

使用基準(zhǔn)行業(yè)特征估計跨行業(yè)跨國交互模型

Antonio Ciccone,?Elias Papaioannou

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 130–158,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac047

?Cross-industry cross-country models are used to address a wide array of questions in economics. They do so by analysing how the economic performance of industries in different countries depends on an interaction effect between industry and country characteristics. As the relevant industry characteristics are unobservable in most countries, they are approximated by industry characteristics in a benchmark country. We show that this approach generally yields biased estimates of the industry–country interaction effect. The sign of the bias depends on whether or not technologically similar countries tend to be similar in other country characteristics. We propose an alternative estimation approach.

跨行業(yè)跨國模型被用來解決經(jīng)濟學(xué)中的一系列廣泛問題。他們通過分析不同國家產(chǎn)業(yè)的經(jīng)濟績效如何依賴于產(chǎn)業(yè)與國家特征之間的相互作用效應(yīng)來做到這一點。由于相關(guān)的行業(yè)特征在大多數(shù)國家都是不可觀測的，因此可以用基準(zhǔn)國家的行業(yè)特征來近似。我們表明，這種方法通常會對產(chǎn)業(yè)-國家互動效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生有偏差的估計。這種偏向的跡象取決于技術(shù)相似的國家是否會在其他國家的特征上趨于相似。我們提出了另一種估計方法。

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6.On Target? Sanctions and the Economic Interests of Elite Policymakers in Iran

目標(biāo)?制裁和伊朗精英政策制定者的經(jīng)濟利益?

Mirko Draca,?Jason Garred,?Leanne Stickland,?Nele Warrinnier

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 159–200,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac042

?How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with significant influence over the direction of Iran’s nuclear programme. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. The results indicate the ‘bluntness’ of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating substantial economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.

針對受影響國家政治精英的經(jīng)濟利益實施制裁的效果如何?我們研究了伊朗的案例，使用了對伊朗核計劃方向具有重大影響的兩個特定政治實體在證券交易所上市的資產(chǎn)的信息。我們的識別戰(zhàn)略側(cè)重于取消制裁的談判過程，考察哪些利益從外交進展的新聞中受益最大。這些結(jié)果表明了對伊朗制裁的“直截了當(dāng)”，但也提供了證據(jù)，證明這些制裁在為精英決策者提供實質(zhì)性的經(jīng)濟激勵方面是有效的，以談判達成解除制裁的協(xié)議。

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7.Talent Discovery and Poaching Under Asymmetric Information?

信息不對稱下的人才發(fā)現(xiàn)與挖墻角

Daniel Ferreira,?Radoslawa Nikolowa

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 201–234,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac048

?We develop a model of the market for knowledge workers in which talent is discovered on the job. In the model, asymmetric information and firm-specific human capital combine to generate several predictions relating firm heterogeneity to talent discovery and poaching. We show that high-quality (i.e., large and high-productivity) firms are more likely to become talent poachers, while lower-quality firms are more likely to invest in talent discovery. Job-to-job flows are adversely selected, which implies that internally promoted managers are more productive than those who are externally promoted. The model generates several additional predictions linking firm heterogeneity to the distribution of managerial talent, productivity, compensation and promotions.

我們?yōu)橹R工作者開發(fā)了一個市場模型，在這個模型中，人才是在工作中發(fā)現(xiàn)的。在該模型中，信息不對稱和公司特有的人力資本結(jié)合起來，產(chǎn)生了一些關(guān)于公司異質(zhì)性與人才發(fā)現(xiàn)和挖角的預(yù)測。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，高質(zhì)量(即大型和高生產(chǎn)率)的企業(yè)更有可能成為人才挖墻腳者，而低質(zhì)量的企業(yè)更有可能投資于人才發(fā)現(xiàn)。職位之間的流動是反向選擇的，這意味著內(nèi)部晉升的經(jīng)理比外部晉升的經(jīng)理更有生產(chǎn)力。該模型產(chǎn)生了幾個額外的預(yù)測，將企業(yè)異質(zhì)性與管理人才、生產(chǎn)率、薪酬和晉升的分布聯(lián)系起來。

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8.Firm Ex Ante Heterogeneity, Entry and the Labour Share

企業(yè)事前異質(zhì)性、進入與勞動收入份額

Jakob Grazzini,?Lorenza Rossi

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 235–257,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac054

?This paper considers a two-sector real business cycle model augmented with firm heterogeneity and firm dynamics, and studies the steady state and dynamic properties of the model in response to a decline in the relative price of investment. It shows that both firm heterogeneity and entry play a crucial role in the decline in the labour share and the increase in capital intensity observed in the US economy. Using ORBIS firm-level data of the US economy, the paper finds robust evidence consistent with the mechanisms described in the model.

本文考慮了一個由企業(yè)異質(zhì)性和企業(yè)動態(tài)增強的兩部門實際經(jīng)濟周期模型，研究了該模型在相對投資價格下降時的穩(wěn)態(tài)和動態(tài)性質(zhì)。研究表明，在美國經(jīng)濟中，企業(yè)異質(zhì)性和進入都對勞動收入占比的下降和資本密集度的上升起著至關(guān)重要的作用。利用美國經(jīng)濟的ORBIS公司層面的數(shù)據(jù)，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)了與模型中描述的機制相一致的穩(wěn)健證據(jù)。

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9.‘I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For’: Evidence of Directed Search from a Field Experiment

“我還沒有找到我要找的東西”:來自野外實驗的定向搜索證據(jù)

Haoran He,?David Neumark,?Qian Weng

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 258–280,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac066

?We explore the impact of wage offers on job applications, testing implications of the directed search model and trying to distinguish it from random search. We use a field experiment conducted on a Chinese job board, with real jobs for which we randomly vary the wage offers across three ranges. We find that higher wage offers raise application rates overall, which is consistent with directed search, but can also arise with random search. We also find that higher wage offers raise application rates for job seekers with wage offers above reservation wages and that—among the latter—the increase in application rates is stronger for those with higher reservation wages. The latter two types of evidence are consistent with directed search, but not random search. Hence, our evidence lends support to directed search models.

我們探討了工資提供對工作申請的影響，測試了直接搜索模型的含義，并試圖將其與隨機搜索區(qū)分開來。我們在中國的一個招聘平臺上進行了一項實地實驗，我們在三個范圍內(nèi)隨機改變了真實工作的工資水平。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，較高的工資待遇總體上提高了申請率，這與定向搜索一致，但也可能出現(xiàn)在隨機搜索中。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，較高的工資水平會提高工資水平高于保留工資的求職者的申請率，而在后者中，保留工資較高的求職者的申請率增長更強。后兩類證據(jù)與定向搜索一致，而不是隨機搜索。因此，我們的證據(jù)支持定向搜索模型。

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10.The Long-Run Effects of Peers on Mental Health

同伴對心理健康的長期影響

Lukas Kiessling,?Jonathan Norris

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 281–322,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac039

This paper studies how peers in school affect students’ mental health. Guided by a theoretical framework, we find that increasing students’ relative ranks in their cohorts by one standard deviation improves their mental health by 6% of a standard deviation conditional on own ability. These effects are more pronounced for low-ability students, persistent for at least 14?years and carry over to economic long-run outcomes. Moreover, we document a pronounced asymmetry: Students who receive negative rather than positive shocks react more strongly. Our findings therefore provide evidence on how the school environment can have long-lasting consequences for individuals’ well-being.

?本文研究了學(xué)校同齡人對學(xué)生心理健康的影響。在理論框架的指導(dǎo)下，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，學(xué)生在隊列中的相對排名每增加一個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差，他們的心理健康水平就會提高6%的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差(以自身能力為條件)。這些影響對能力低下的學(xué)生來說更加明顯，至少持續(xù)了14年，并對經(jīng)濟的長期結(jié)果產(chǎn)生影響。此外，我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個明顯的不對稱性:接受負(fù)面沖擊的學(xué)生比接受正面沖擊的學(xué)生反應(yīng)更強烈。因此，我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)為學(xué)校環(huán)境如何對個人福祉產(chǎn)生長期影響提供了證據(jù)。

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11.Civicness Drain

公民流失

Moti Michaeli,?Marco Casari,?Andrea Ichino,?Maria De?Paola,?Ginevra Marandola?...

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 323–354,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac068

?Migration may cause, not only a brain drain, but also a ‘civicness’ drain, leading to a poverty trap. Using migration choices of southern Italian high-school students classified as civic if not cheating in a modified die-roll experiment, we uncover a key role of local civicness (average civicness in the class): a civicness drain is observed only at high and low local civicness. We rationalise this pattern with a model in which civic and uncivic types balance hope versus fear of migration outcomes, taking into account economic gains, risk preferences and their beliefs about being considered civic in the place of destination

移民不僅可能導(dǎo)致人才流失，還可能導(dǎo)致“公民”流失，從而導(dǎo)致貧困陷阱。利用意大利南部高中生的移民選擇，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了當(dāng)?shù)毓?班級中的平均公民)的一個關(guān)鍵作用:只有在高和低的當(dāng)?shù)毓裰胁拍苡^察到公民流失。我們對這種模式進行了合理化，在這種模式中，公民和非公民類型在對移民結(jié)果的希望和恐懼之間進行平衡，考慮到經(jīng)濟收益、風(fēng)險偏好和他們對在目的地被視為公民的信念

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12.Countering Moral Hazard in Higher Education: The Role of Performance Incentives in Need-Based Grants

在高等教育中對抗道德風(fēng)險:績效激勵在基于需求的撥款中的作用

José Montalbán

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 355–389,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac062

?Using a unique reform in the Spanish financial aid program, I estimate the impact of need-based grants on student achievement and dropout decisions under different intensities of academic requirements. Utilising comprehensive administrative data from a large university, I exploit sharp discontinuities in the grant eligibility formula to identify the effect of aid on student outcomes. I find that aid eligibility has no effect on student outcomes when the academic requirements are comparable with most existing national grant schemes worldwide. In contrast, I find that need-based grants have strong positive impacts on student performance and degree completion when they are combined with more demanding academic requirements.

利用西班牙財政援助計劃的一項獨特改革，我估計了在不同的學(xué)術(shù)要求強度下，基于需求的贈款對學(xué)生成績和退學(xué)決定的影響。利用一所大型大學(xué)的綜合管理數(shù)據(jù)，我利用補助金資格公式中的明顯不連續(xù)性來確定援助對學(xué)生成績的影響。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)學(xué)術(shù)要求與世界上大多數(shù)現(xiàn)有的國家贈款計劃相比較時，援助資格對學(xué)生的成績沒有影響。相比之下，我發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)助學(xué)金與更高的學(xué)術(shù)要求相結(jié)合時，對學(xué)生的表現(xiàn)和學(xué)位完成度有很強的積極影響。

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13.A Raise for Grandma: Pensions and Household Expenditure

給奶奶加薪:養(yǎng)老金和家庭支出

Susana Párraga?Rodríguez

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 390–419,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac061

?This paper analyses the causal effect of changes in public pensions on household spending. The identification exploits the introduction of a new welfare system in Spain during the 1980s and 1990s, and uses a novel narrative series of legislated pension changes as an instrument for pension income. Despite public pensions having a limited impact in the aggregate, I find a high, though less than unity, marginal propensity to consume for pensioners due to permanent income shocks at the household level. Moreover, large spending responses for pensioners with the highest income and wealth mean that liquidity considerations can be disregarded as a key source of marginal propensity to consume heterogeneity. Instead, a strong precautionary savings motive can explain the excess smoothness of consumption, and costly adjustments explain the skewed spending response for durables.

本文分析了公共養(yǎng)老金變動對家庭支出的因果影響。該識別利用了20世紀(jì)80年代和90年代西班牙引入的一種新的福利制度，并使用一系列立法養(yǎng)老金變化作為養(yǎng)老金收入的工具變量。盡管公共養(yǎng)老金在總體上的影響有限，但我發(fā)現(xiàn)，由于家庭層面的永久性收入沖擊，養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者的邊際消費傾向很高，盡管不太一致。此外，收入和財富最高的養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者的大量支出反應(yīng)意味著流動性考慮可以被視為邊際消費異質(zhì)性的一個關(guān)鍵來源。相反，強烈的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機可以解釋消費的過度平穩(wěn)，而代價高昂的調(diào)整可以解釋耐用品支出的傾斜反應(yīng)。

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14.The Power of Hydroelectric Dams: Historical Evidence from the United States over the Twentieth Century

水力發(fā)電大壩的力量:20世紀(jì)美國的歷史證據(jù)

Edson Severnini

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 420–459,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac059

?This paper evaluates large-scale hydroelectric dams built in the United States during the twentieth century. Combining panel event-study designs and synthetic control methods, two results stand out. First, dams constructed pre-1950 spurred short-run local growth, in large part thanks to a ‘cheap-local-power advantage’, and resulted in remarkable long-run growth, more than doubling local population density after 50?years. Second, dams constructed post-1950 had only modest effects on growth. The first result indicates agglomerative impacts on local economic activity. The second result suggests that the cheap-local-power advantage created by hydropower attenuated after 1950, probably because of such innovations as high-tension transmission lines.

本文對美國在20世紀(jì)建造的大型水電站大壩進行了評價。結(jié)合面板事件研究設(shè)計和綜合控制方法，有兩個結(jié)果突出。首先，1950年前修建的大壩刺激了當(dāng)?shù)氐亩唐谠鲩L，這在很大程度上歸功于“當(dāng)?shù)仉娏Ρ阋说膬?yōu)勢”，并帶來了顯著的長期增長，50年后當(dāng)?shù)厝丝诿芏仍黾恿艘槐抖?。其次?950年后修建的大壩對經(jīng)濟增長的影響不大。第一個結(jié)果表明集聚對當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟活動的影響。第二個結(jié)果表明，水力發(fā)電所帶來的便宜的本地電力優(yōu)勢在1950年后減弱了，這可能是因為高壓輸電線路等創(chuàng)新。

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15.Salience and Accountability: School Infrastructure and Last-Minute Electoral Punishment

突出和責(zé)任:學(xué)校基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和最后一刻的選舉懲罰

Nicolás Ajzenman,?Ruben Durante

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 460–476,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac044

?Can seemingly unimportant factors influence voting decisions by making certain issues salient? We study this in the context of Argentina’s 2015 presidential elections by examining how the infrastructure quality of the school where citizens voted influenced their choice. Exploiting the quasi-random assignment of voters to ballot stations in public schools in Buenos Aires, we show that individuals assigned to poorer infrastructure schools were less likely to vote for Mauricio Macri, the incumbent mayor running for president. The effect is larger in lower-income areas, where private education is more unusual, and in places where more households have children of school-going age.

看似不重要的因素會使某些問題變得突出，從而影響投票決定嗎?我們以阿根廷2015年總統(tǒng)選舉為背景，研究了公民投票所在學(xué)校的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施質(zhì)量如何影響他們的選擇。利用選民被準(zhǔn)隨機分配到布宜諾斯艾利斯公立學(xué)校投票站的現(xiàn)象，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，分配到較貧窮的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施學(xué)校的個人不太可能投票給競選總統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)任市長毛里西奧馬克里(Mauricio Macri)。這種影響在低收入地區(qū)更大，在這些地區(qū)，私人教育更不尋常，更多的家庭有上學(xué)年齡的孩子。

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16.Must Agreements Be Kept? Residential Leases During Covid-19

協(xié)議必須遵守嗎?Covid-19期間的住宅租賃

Itai Ater,?Yael Elster,?David Genesove,?Eran B Hoffmann

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 477–492,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac065

?We study residential lease payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. A survey of Israeli renters shows that nearly one in eight did not pay full rent during the first lockdown in March–April 2020. These households held back two-thirds of their contractually due rent on average. Financially fragile households with large income cuts withheld a greater share. Both formal and relational aspects of the landlord-tenant relationship affected payments: tenants paid more of their rent if their leases included formal provisions against non-payment, and less if they had strong relationships with their landlords. We use bargaining and relational contract theories to explain our findings.

我們研究COVID-19大流行期間的住宅租賃付款。對以色列租房者的一項調(diào)查顯示，在2020年3月至4月的第一次封鎖期間，近八分之一的人沒有支付全額租金。這些家庭平均拖欠了合同到期租金的三分之二。收入大幅削減的財務(wù)脆弱家庭保留了更大的份額。房東-租戶關(guān)系的正式和關(guān)系方面都會影響租金的支付:如果租約中包含了防止不付款的正式條款，租戶就會支付更多的租金，而如果他們與房東關(guān)系密切，他們就會支付更少的租金。我們使用議價和關(guān)系契約理論來解釋我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

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17.Populist Persuasion in Electoral Campaigns: Evidence from Bryan's Unique Whistle-Stop Tour

選舉活動中的民粹主義游說:布萊恩獨特的哨站之旅的證據(jù)

Johannes C Buggle,?Stephanos Vlachos

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 493–515,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac056

?This paper examines the effect of campaign appearances in the context of the one-sided nationwide tour by William J. Bryan, the Democratic US presidential candidate in 1896. During this electoral campaign, Bryan undertook an unprecedented whistle-stop train tour, while the Republican candidate followed a front-porch campaign. To identify the causal effect of campaign speeches, we exploit several estimation strategies, including a within-county difference-in-differences design and a neighbour-pair fixed effect estimator. We find that campaign visits by Bryan increased his vote share by about one percentage point on average. This increase likely stems from the persuasion of previously non-aligned industrial workers.

本文以1896年美國民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人威廉·布萊恩(William J. Bryan)的全國一面之詞為背景，考察了競選活動露面的影響。在這次競選活動中，布萊恩進行了一次前所未有的火車旅行，而共和黨候選人則進行了一次前門競選。為了確定競選演講的因果效應(yīng)，我們采用了幾種估計策略，包括縣內(nèi)雙重差異設(shè)計和鄰對固定效應(yīng)估計。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)布萊恩的競選訪問使他的選票平均增加了一個百分點。這種增長可能是由于以前的不結(jié)盟產(chǎn)業(yè)工人的說服。

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18.The Interplay Among Savings Accounts and Network-Based Financial Arrangements: Evidence from a Field Experiment

儲蓄賬戶和基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)的金融部署之間的相互作用:來自實地實驗的證據(jù)

Margherita Comola,?Silvia Prina

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 649, January 2023, Pages 516–535,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueac053

This paper studies how formal financial access affects network-based financial arrangements. We use a field experiment that granted access to a savings account to a random subset of households in 19 Nepalese villages. Exploiting a unique panel dataset that follows all bilateral informal financial transactions before and after the intervention, we show that households that were offered access to an account increased their loans and total transfers to others, independent of the treatment status of the receiver. The increase seemed to be driven by treatment households with more assets and greater financial inclusion at baseline.

本文研究了正規(guī)金融渠道對網(wǎng)絡(luò)金融安排的影響。我們進行了一項實地實驗，在尼泊爾的19個村莊中隨機選取了一部分家庭，允許他們使用儲蓄賬戶。利用跟蹤干預(yù)前后所有雙邊非正式金融交易的獨特面板數(shù)據(jù)集，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，獲得賬戶準(zhǔn)入的家庭增加了其貸款和向他人轉(zhuǎn)移的總額，而與接收方的待遇狀況無關(guān)。這一增長似乎是由在基線時擁有更多資產(chǎn)和更大金融包容性的處理組家庭推動的。

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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