Low economic growth is a slow-burning crisis for Britain

對英國來說，低經(jīng)濟增長是一場逐漸到來的危機

Britain's problem is not just Boris Johnson

英國的問題不僅僅是鮑里斯·約翰遜

Conservative mps’ half-hearted vote to endorse Boris Johnson as prime minister, on June 6th, betrayed how deeply Britain’s ruling party fails to confront hard choices. A defeat for Mr Johnson would have ushered in a new government, with a chance to prove itself before the next election. A resounding victory would have given him a fresh mandate to show that he had put his transgressions behind him. The irresolute blow the rebels inflicted leaves Britain in the hands of a washed-up cabinet mouthing grandiloquent promises it cannot honour.

當(dāng)?shù)貢r間6月6日晚間，英國下議院保守黨議員針對該黨黨首、英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜進(jìn)行不信任投票。最終，359名保守黨議員中有148人投票希望約翰遜下臺，未達(dá)到通過不信任動議所需要的180票；211名保守黨議員在表決中支持約翰遜。

【1】resounding 轟動的；驚人的

【2】washed-up 完蛋了的；精疲力盡的

【3】grandiloquent 言辭浮夸的

6月6日，保守黨議員勉強地投票支持鮑里斯·約翰遜擔(dān)任首相，這暴露了英國執(zhí)政黨在面對艱難抉擇方面的無能。如果約翰遜失敗，他將迎來一個新政府，并有機會在下次選舉前證明自己。一場驚人的勝利將給他一個新的授權(quán)，以表明他已經(jīng)將自己的“過失”拋諸腦后。反對者所造成的猶豫不決的打擊使英國落在了一個精疲力竭的內(nèi)閣的手中，而這個內(nèi)閣只會夸夸其談一些無法兌現(xiàn)的承諾。

This newspaper has long argued that Mr Johnson ought to have resigned for lying repeatedly to Parliament about whether he broke his own laws. But hypocrisy and deceit do not begin to capture the wider problem that he and his country face. Britain is stuck in a 15-year rut. It likes to think of itself as a dynamic, free-market place, but its economy lags behind much of the rich world. There is plenty of speechifying about growth, and no shortage of ideas about how to turn the country round. But the mettle and strategic thinking that reform requires are absent—another instance of Tories ducking hard choices.

【1】speechify 喋喋不休

【2】mettle 奮斗精神

【3】strategic 戰(zhàn)略的；關(guān)鍵的

【4】duck 躲避；回避；逃避

長期以來，本刊一直認(rèn)為約翰遜應(yīng)該辭職，因為他一再向議會謊報自己是否違反了自己的法律。但虛偽和欺騙并沒有反映他和他的國家面臨的更廣泛的問題。英國在長達(dá)15年的時間里墨守成規(guī)。它認(rèn)為自己是一個充滿活力的自由市場，但它的經(jīng)濟落后于許多發(fā)達(dá)國家。關(guān)于增長的高談闊論比比皆是，關(guān)于如何讓這個國家好轉(zhuǎn)的想法也層出不窮。但其缺乏改革所需要的勇氣和戰(zhàn)略思維，這是保守黨回避艱難抉擇的另一個例證。

Britain’s stagnation also holds lessons for other slow-growing countries, many of them in Europe. Lower GDP means declining global influence, faltering faith in free markets and less money for public services. A struggle over fixed resources fires the populism that turns politics into an ugly fight about identity. The shortage of funds for investment entrenches tired and inefficient institutions. Worst of all, the lack of growth limits Britons’ scope to flourish.

英國的經(jīng)濟停滯也為其他增長緩慢的國家提供了教訓(xùn)，其中許多國家位于歐洲。GDP的下降意味著全球影響力下降，對自由市場的信心動搖，公共服務(wù)資金減少。爭奪固定資源的斗爭激起了民粹主義，將政治變成了一場關(guān)于身份認(rèn)同的丑陋斗爭。投資資金的短缺使陳舊低效的機構(gòu)陷入困境。最糟糕的是，經(jīng)濟增長乏力限制了英國人的發(fā)展空間。

The idea that Britain has a growth problem is not new. But few realise how deep a hole it is in. Whereas average annual GDP growth over the decade preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-09 was 2.7%, the new normal is now closer to just 1.7%.

英國存在增長問題的觀點并不新奇。但很少有人意識到這一窘境有多深。在2007-2009年全球金融危機之前的十年間，平均年GDP增長率為2.7%，而現(xiàn)在的新常態(tài)接近于1.7%。

Plenty of countries suffered from the financial crisis and covid-19. But Britain’s problems run deeper. In 2022 GDP per head will be more than 25% lower than America’s, measured at purchasing-power parity. Britain has been declining against America and Germany since the mid-2000s. Average wages now lag behind America’s by about as much as Poland’s do Britain’s.

金融危機和新冠肺炎疫情殃及不少國家。但英國的問題更加嚴(yán)重。按購買力平價計算，2022年人均GDP將比美國的人均GDP低25%以上。自2000年代中期以來，英國一直落后于美國和德國?，F(xiàn)在其平均工資落后于美國的比例大約相當(dāng)于波蘭落后于英國的那樣。

Underlying this is feeble productivity. In the decade to 2007, British productivity growth was second only to America’s in the G7. In the decade to 2019, growth in output per hour worked stalled to just 0.7% a year, making Britain the second-slowest in the g7; only Italy was slower. Had Britain’s productivity growth rate not fallen after the financial crisis, GDP per person in 2019 would have been ￡6,700 ($8,380) higher than it is.

這背后的根本原因是生產(chǎn)力疲軟。在截至2007年的十年間，英國的生產(chǎn)率增長在七國集團(tuán)中僅次于美國。在截至2019年的十年間，每小時工作產(chǎn)出的增長停滯至每年0.7%，這使英國成為七國集團(tuán)中第二慢的國家；只領(lǐng)先于意大利。如果英國的生產(chǎn)率增長比例在金融危機后沒有下降，2019年的人均GDP將比現(xiàn)在高出6700英鎊(8380美元)。

At least in the short run, Brexit has made matters worse. Business investment is lower than when the referendum took place. Since the end of 2020 firms trading with the European Union have faced extra paperwork, customs delays and higher taxes. In the last quarter of 2021 Britain exported 16% less than at the end of 2019. Global goods trade, by contrast, grew by nearly 6%.

至少在短期內(nèi)，英國脫歐讓事情變得更糟。其商業(yè)投資低于公投時的水平。自2020年底以來，與歐盟進(jìn)行貿(mào)易的公司面臨著額外的文書工作、海關(guān)延誤和更高的稅收。在2021年的最后一個季度，英國的出口比2019年底減少了16%。相比之下，全球商品貿(mào)易增長了近6%。

The outlook is poor, too. The OECD predicts that next year GDP in Britain will be stagnant. Official forecasts show that real take-home pay will be lower in five years than it is today, eaten away by higher taxes and consumer-price inflation that, at 9%, is the highest among big rich economies.

【1】take-home pay [扣除稅款后的] 實得工資

【2】eat away 侵蝕；腐蝕；蠶食

其前景也不容樂觀。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)測明年英國的GDP將停滯不前。官方預(yù)測顯示，實際稅后收入在五年內(nèi)會比現(xiàn)在更低，這主要是受更高的稅收和消費價格通脹的影響，消費價格通脹達(dá)到9%，這在發(fā)達(dá)國家中最高。

Part of the problem is that boosterish politicians talk so much nonsense about growth. The statistics are noisy and complex enough for a clever civil servant to find a number that paints Britain in a favourable light. Don’t be fooled. Self-delusion stifles fresh thinking about policy, one reason Britain’s economic debates have been tangential to growth, harmful even. For most of the 2010s politicians obsessed about cutting deficits. Budget discipline is important, but hardly a cure for Britain’s ills. In a speech this week Mr Johnson was to propose unlocking growth by letting people use housing benefits to buy houses.

【1】to be tangential to sth 與某事不相干

【2】boosterish

[釋義] very enthusiastic and confident about how good or successful something is or will be, often more than is reasonable

部分問題在于那些樂觀的政客們對于“經(jīng)濟增長”胡說八道。這些統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)紛繁復(fù)雜，足以讓一個聰明的文官找到一個對英國有利的數(shù)字。別被騙了。自欺欺人扼殺了對政策的新思考，這也是英國經(jīng)濟辯論與經(jīng)濟增長無關(guān)，甚至有害的原因之一。在2010年代的大部分時間里，政治家們都癡迷于削減赤字。預(yù)算紀(jì)律很重要，但很難治愈英國的弊病。在本周的一次演講中，約翰遜提議通過讓人們使用住房福利購買房屋來釋放增長。

“Levelling up”, a theme of this government, could in theory focus on raising the productivity of workers and capital in Britain’s left-behind regions. In practice, it seems to put redistribution before output. That may be the just thing to do, but it is naive to expect that sending pots of public money to Britain’s poorer places will increase the size of the national pie.“

升級”是本屆政府的一個議程，從理論上講，它可以把重點放在提高英國落后地區(qū)的工人生產(chǎn)率和資本水平上。實際上，它似乎把再分配置于產(chǎn)出之前。這也許是正確的做法，但指望把大量的公共資金送到英國較貧窮的地方就能增加國家蛋糕的規(guī)模，未免太天真了。

When it comes to growth, Britain’s politicians will the ends but not the means. They run scared of the homeowning elderly, who turn up to vote and make up a growing share of the electorate. So tax rises are heaped on businesses and workers instead, further harming the economy. The government has likewise watered down its plans for reforming the planning system—because elderly homeowners object.

在經(jīng)濟增長問題上，英國的政客們只會追求目標(biāo)，而不是手段。他們害怕?lián)碛凶》康睦夏耆?，這些人參加投票，在選民中所占的比例越來越大。因此，增稅反而施加給企業(yè)和工人，這進(jìn)一步損害了經(jīng)濟。政府同樣也緩和了其改革規(guī)劃系統(tǒng)的計劃，因為老年房主反對。

A change of government may not fix the problem. Parts of Labour grasp the challenge. But the party is fixated on outbidding the Tories over levelling up, and is less likely than the Conservatives to reform public services in a way that will lower costs and taxes.?

政府迭代可能無法解決問題。部分工黨人意識到了這一挑戰(zhàn)。但是，工黨一心想在“升級”議程上超過保守黨，并且它不太可能像保守黨那樣以降低成本和稅收的方式改革公共服務(wù)。

Britain has been here before. In 1979, in opposition, Margaret Thatcher lamented its declining economic standing. “Travel abroad, and see how much better our neighbours are doing,” she urged Tory supporters. Her uncompromising reforms led to nearly three decades in which British living standards closed on those in the rest of the rich world.

英國以前就有過這樣的經(jīng)歷。1979年，作為反對黨的瑪格麗特·撒切爾哀嘆英國日益衰落的經(jīng)濟地位。她敦促保守黨的支持者們“去國外旅行，看看我們的鄰居做得有多好”。她毫不妥協(xié)的改革使得英國的生活水平在近三十年里一直接近其他發(fā)達(dá)國家。

The stagnation nationOver the coming months we will look at growth in Britain and how to fix it. Some solutions are familiar but politically difficult, like solving the housing crisis in south-east England and boosting trade with the eu. Others involve fresh thinking to harness the potential of the country’s universities and life-sciences firms, and to expose managers to competition.?

在接下來的幾個月里，我們將關(guān)注英國的經(jīng)濟增長以及如何解決這個問題。有些解決方案耳熟能詳，但在政治上很困難，比如解決英格蘭東南部的住房危機，以及促進(jìn)與歐盟的貿(mào)易。另一些則涉及到新思維，利用該國的大學(xué)和生命科學(xué)公司的潛力，以及讓管理人員面臨競爭。

Britain’s advantages, from the English language to the common-law system, have not gone away. However, under the dishonest, unserious—and now politically wounded—Mr Johnson, Britain is at threat from rising barriers to trade, an ageing electorate and rigid planning. Britain suffers from complacency, born of centuries as a first-rank economy, and Johnsonian bluster only exacerbates it. If Britain is to avoid a bleak future it must grasp reform. That will require a once-in-a-generation show of political courage, persuasion and policy ingenuity. Just like four decades ago, there is no alternative.?

從英語語言到英美法系，英國的優(yōu)勢并沒有消失。然而，在不誠實、不嚴(yán)肅(現(xiàn)在在政治上受到了傷害)的約翰遜先生的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，英國正面臨著貿(mào)易壁壘上升、選民老齡化和規(guī)劃僵化的威脅。英國飽受自滿之苦，幾個世紀(jì)以來它一直是一流經(jīng)濟體，約翰遜的夸口只會加劇這種自滿情緒。如果英國想避免暗淡的未來，就必須抓緊改革。這需要展現(xiàn)出千載難逢的政治勇氣、說服力和政策智慧。就像40年前一樣，別無選擇。