European economic review 2023年第1期

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.The state of hiring discrimination: A meta-analysis of (almost) all recent correspondence experiments

招聘歧視的現(xiàn)狀:(幾乎)近期所有通信實驗的元分析

Louis Lippens, Siel Vermeiren, Stijn Baert

Notwithstanding the improved integration of various minority groups in the workforce, unequal treatment in hiring still hinders many individuals’ access to the labour market. To tackle this inaccessibility, it is essential to know which and to what extent minority groups face hiring discrimination. This meta-analysis synthesises a quasi-exhaustive register of correspondence experiments on hiring discrimination published between 2005 and 2020. Using a random-effects model, we computed pooled discrimination ratios concerning ten discrimination grounds upon which unequal treatment in hiring is forbidden by law. Our meta-analysis shows that hiring discrimination against candidates with disabilities, older candidates, and less physically attractive candidates seems equally severe as the unequal treatment of candidates with salient racial or ethnic characteristics. Moreover, hiring discrimination against older applicants is more prominent in Europe than in the United States. Last, while we initially find a significant decrease in ethnic hiring discrimination in (Western) Europe, we find no structural evidence of recent temporal changes in hiring discrimination when controlling for the minority groups considered, at the country level, or based on the various other grounds within the scope of this review.

盡管各少數(shù)群體融入勞動力市場的情況有所改善，但雇用方面的不平等待遇仍然妨礙許多人進入勞動力市場。為了解決這種難以接近的問題，必須知道少數(shù)群體在哪些方面以及在多大程度上面臨招聘歧視。這項云分析綜合了2005年至2020年期間發(fā)布的關(guān)于招聘歧視的近乎詳盡的對應(yīng)實驗登記冊。利用隨機效應(yīng)模型，我們計算了關(guān)于法律禁止在招聘中進行不平等待遇的十個歧視理由的綜合歧視比率。我們的元分析表明，對殘疾候選人、年齡較大的候選人和外貌較差的候選人的招聘歧視似乎與對具有明顯種族或民族特征的候選人的不平等對待一樣嚴重。此外，在歐洲，對年長求職者的招聘歧視比美國更突出。最后，雖然我們最初發(fā)現(xiàn)(西歐)的種族雇傭歧視顯著減少，但在國家層面上控制考慮的少數(shù)群體或基于本審查范圍內(nèi)的各種其他理由時，我們沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)雇傭歧視最近的時間變化的結(jié)構(gòu)性證據(jù)。

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2.Asylum policies and international tensions

庇護政策和國際緊張局勢

Florin Cucu, Ludovic Panon

This article examines how international relation dynamics shape asylum policies. Using data on asylum applications in the European Union (EU) and international events from 1999 to 2017, we document that EU Member States admit relatively more refugees when diplomatic relations with the country of origin deteriorate. This result holds after controlling for push and pull factors as well as bilateral determinants of refugee migration. Our results highlight the importance of non-humanitarian factors in the grant of political asylum.

本文探討了國際關(guān)系動態(tài)如何塑造庇護政策。利用1999年至2017年歐盟(EU)庇護申請和國際事件的數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)與原籍國的外交關(guān)系惡化時，歐盟成員國會接納相對更多的難民。在控制了推動和拉動因素以及難民遷移的雙邊決定因素后，這一結(jié)果仍然成立。我們的結(jié)果突出了非人道主義因素在給予政治庇護方面的重要性。

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3.Taxation and the transfer of patents: Evidence from Europe

稅收與專利轉(zhuǎn)讓:來自歐洲的證據(jù)

Laurie Ciaramella

I study how taxes affect firms’ incentives to shift the location of intangible assets. Using firm-level data on patent reassignments, I exploit variations in statutory tax rates and the introduction of “patent box” policies as shocks modifying incentives to transfer patents across countries. The results suggest a large impact of taxes on asset shifting between affiliates, increasing with expected patent income, and driven by very large firms. Patent boxes are persistently associated with more incoming and less outgoing patent relocations between affiliates. These findings suggest that taxes provide firms with incentives to shift income via patent relocation, and advocate for considering patent transfer strategies in tax policy.

我研究了稅收如何影響企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移無形資產(chǎn)地點的動機。利用公司層面的專利再分配數(shù)據(jù)，我利用法定稅率的變化和“專利箱”政策的引入作為沖擊，修改了跨國專利轉(zhuǎn)移的激勵。研究結(jié)果表明，稅收對子公司間資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響很大，隨著預(yù)期專利收入的增加而增加，并由非常大的公司驅(qū)動。專利箱總是與關(guān)聯(lián)公司之間更多的進入和更少的流出專利遷移聯(lián)系在一起。這些結(jié)果表明，稅收為企業(yè)通過專利轉(zhuǎn)移實現(xiàn)收入轉(zhuǎn)移提供了激勵，并為專利轉(zhuǎn)移戰(zhàn)略的制定提供了政策依據(jù)。

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4.Understanding cognitive decline in older ages: The role of health shocks

了解老年人認知能力下降:健康沖擊的作用

Valentin Schiele, Hendrik Schmitz

Individual cognitive functioning declines over time. We seek to understand how adverse physical health shocks in older ages contribute to this development. By use of event-study methods and data from the USA, England, and several countries in Continental Europe, we find evidence that health shocks lead to an immediate and persistent decline in cognitive functioning. This robust finding holds in all regions representing different health insurance systems and seems to be independent of underlying individual demographic characteristics such as sex and age. We also ask whether variables that are susceptible to policy action can reduce the negative consequences of a health shock. Our results suggest that neither compulsory education nor retirement regulations moderate the effects, thus emphasizing the importance for cognitive functioning of maintaining good physical health in old age.

個人認知功能會隨著時間的推移而下降。我們試圖了解老年時不利的身體健康沖擊是如何促成這一發(fā)展的。通過使用事件研究方法和來自美國、英國和歐洲大陸幾個國家的數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了健康沖擊導(dǎo)致認知功能立即和持續(xù)下降的證據(jù)。這一強有力的發(fā)現(xiàn)適用于代表不同醫(yī)療保險系統(tǒng)的所有地區(qū)，似乎與性別和年齡等潛在的個人人口特征無關(guān)。我們還詢問，易受政策行動影響的變量是否能夠減少健康沖擊的負面后果。我們的研究結(jié)果表明，義務(wù)教育和退休規(guī)定都沒有調(diào)節(jié)這種影響，因此強調(diào)了在老年保持良好身體健康的認知功能的重要性。

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5.Indebted sellers, liquidity and mortgage standards

負債的賣方、流動性和抵押貸款標準

Allen Head, Hongfei Sun, Chenggang Zhou

The effects of households’ indebtedness on their house selling decisions, the implications of these decisions for default and the effects of policies intended to reduce the incentive to default are studied in a dynamic model with search in the housing market and defaultable long-term mortgages. In equilibrium, both sellers’ asking prices and time-to-sell increase with the relative size of their outstanding debt. For sellers in financial distress, this behavior results in a positive relationship between debt and their individual risk of default. Prices and time-to-sell determine both the liquidity of the housing market and the aggregate risk of default. As such they determine the extent of profitable lending by competitive lenders. Calibrated to the U.S. economy, the model also generates, as observed, positive correlations (i) across sellers of asking prices with loan-to-value ratios, and (ii) over time of both house prices and time-to-sell with mortgage loan-to-value ratios at mortgage origination. Policies aimed at reducing default may be counterproductive if they raise the value of mortgages and thus lower lending standards, ultimately increasing the rate of default and reducing aggregate welfare. We consider also the implications of these policies for the effects of aggregate shocks on house prices and the rate and severity of mortgage default.

在一個動態(tài)模型中，研究了家庭負債對其房屋出售決策的影響，這些決策對違約的影響，以及旨在減少違約激勵的政策的影響，該模型在住房市場和違約長期抵押貸款中進行了搜索。在均衡狀態(tài)下，賣方的要價和出售時間都隨著其未償債務(wù)的相對規(guī)模而增加。對于處于財務(wù)困境的賣方，這種行為導(dǎo)致債務(wù)與其個人違約風(fēng)險呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。價格和出售時間決定了住房市場的流動性和總體違約風(fēng)險。因此，它們決定了有競爭力的貸款人提供有利可圖的貸款的程度。根據(jù)美國經(jīng)濟校準，該模型還產(chǎn)生了觀察到的正相關(guān)性(i)要價賣家與貸款與價值比率之間的正相關(guān)性，以及(ii)隨著時間的推移，房價和出售時間與抵押貸款發(fā)放時的抵押貸款與價值比率之間的正相關(guān)性。如果旨在減少違約的政策提高了抵押貸款的價值，從而降低了貸款標準，最終增加了違約率，減少了總體福利，那么這些政策可能會適得其反。我們還考慮了這些政策對房價、抵押貸款違約率和嚴重程度的總體沖擊的影響。

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6.Communicating Monetary Policy Rules

溝通貨幣政策規(guī)則

Troy Davig, Andrew Foerster

Despite the ubiquity of inflation targeting, central banks communicate their frameworks in a variety of ways. No central bank explicitly expresses their conduct via a policy rule, which contrasts with models of policy. Central banks often connect theory with practice by publishing inflation forecasts that can, in principle, implicitly convey their reaction function. We return to this central idea to show how a central bank can achieve the gains of a rule-based policy without publicly stating a specific rule. The approach requires central banks to specify an inflation target, inflation tolerance bands, and provide economic projections. When inflation moves outside the band, inflation forecasts provide a time frame over which inflation will return to within the band. We show how this communication replicates and provides the same information as a rule-based policy. The communication strategy produces a natural benchmark for assessing central bank performance. We illustrate these features in a counterfactual monetary policy history of the United States.

盡管通脹目標制無處不在，但央行以各種方式傳達其框架。沒有一家央行通過政策規(guī)則明確表達自己的行為，這與政策模型不同。央行經(jīng)常通過發(fā)布通脹預(yù)測將理論與實踐聯(lián)系起來，這些預(yù)測原則上可以含蓄地傳達其反應(yīng)功能。我們回到這一中心思想，以說明央行如何在不公開聲明具體規(guī)則的情況下實現(xiàn)基于規(guī)則的政策的收益。這種方法要求央行指定一個通脹目標、通脹容忍區(qū)間，并提供經(jīng)濟預(yù)測。當(dāng)通脹在區(qū)間外移動時，通脹預(yù)測提供了一個時間框架，在這個時間框架內(nèi)，通脹將回到區(qū)間內(nèi)。我們將展示這種通信如何復(fù)制并提供與基于規(guī)則的策略相同的信息。溝通戰(zhàn)略為評估央行的表現(xiàn)提供了一個天然的基準。我們在美國反事實的貨幣政策歷史中闡明了這些特征。

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7.The demographic transition and the asset supply channel

人口轉(zhuǎn)型與資產(chǎn)供給渠道

Pedro S. Amaral

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of a demographic transition in an environment where a producer’s capital structure is relevant, thereby introducing an asset supply channel. Producers are heterogeneous with respect to how productive they are in different states of the world, and may pursue different combinations of safe and/or risky securities issuance when financing projects. I simulate a demographic transition calibrated to replicate the US experience starting in 1880. This transition results in modest increases in output, larger increases in saving as a whole and, particularly, in a relative increase in saving in the form of safe assets. Lower capital costs lead to producer entry (and more issuance) and to a tilt towards safe issuance. I show that omitting this asset supply channel, as standard representative firm models do, results in a quantitatively important overestimation of the transmission effects of the demographic transition, with larger output gains despite smaller interest rate reductions.

本文研究了在生產(chǎn)者資本結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)的環(huán)境中，人口轉(zhuǎn)型的宏觀經(jīng)濟后果，從而引入了資產(chǎn)供應(yīng)渠道。生產(chǎn)者在世界不同國家的生產(chǎn)力是不同的，在為項目融資時，他們可能追求不同的安全和/或風(fēng)險證券發(fā)行組合。我模擬了一場人口轉(zhuǎn)型，旨在復(fù)制美國從1880年開始的經(jīng)歷。這種轉(zhuǎn)變導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)出溫和增長，整體儲蓄大幅增長，特別是以安全資產(chǎn)形式存在的儲蓄相對增加。較低的資本成本導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)商進入(以及更多的發(fā)行)，并向安全發(fā)行傾斜。我的研究表明，如果像標準的代表性公司模型那樣忽略這一資產(chǎn)供應(yīng)渠道，就會在定量上高估人口轉(zhuǎn)型的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)，盡管利率下調(diào)幅度較小，但產(chǎn)出收益仍較大。

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8.Levelling the debt–equity playing field: Evidence from Belgium

平衡債務(wù)權(quán)益競爭環(huán)境:來自比利時的證據(jù)

Muhammad Meki

I explore whether a Belgian policy that reduced the corporate tax bias towards debt finance was successful in lowering firm leverage. Using putatively exogenous time series variation in the cost of equity financing and a difference-in-differences strategy that includes similar firms from surrounding countries, I find that the policy did lead to increased equity ratios, with some evidence of a shift from short-term debt to long-term debt.

我探討了比利時一項減少企業(yè)對債務(wù)融資的稅收偏向的政策是否成功地降低了企業(yè)的杠桿率。利用假設(shè)外生的股權(quán)融資成本的時間序列變化和包括周邊國家類似企業(yè)在內(nèi)的雙重差分策略，我發(fā)現(xiàn)該政策確實導(dǎo)致了股權(quán)融資比例的上升，并有證據(jù)表明，短期債務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)向長期債務(wù)。

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9.Economic forecasting with an agent-based model

基于代理人模型的經(jīng)濟預(yù)測

Sebastian Poledna, Michael Gregor Miess, Cars Hommes, Katrin Rabitsch

We develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro and macro data from national accounts, sector accounts, input–output tables, government statistics, and census and business demography data. The model incorporates all economic activities as classified by the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and includes all economic sectors populated with millions of heterogeneous agents. In addition to being a competitive model framework for forecasts of aggregate variables, the detailed structure of the ABM allows for a breakdown into sector-level forecasts. Using this detailed structure, we demonstrate the ABM by forecasting the medium-run macroeconomic effects of lockdown measures taken in Austria to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential applications of the model include stress-testing and predicting the effects of monetary or fiscal macroeconomic policies.

我們開發(fā)了第一個能夠與基準VAR和DSGE模型在宏觀變量樣本外預(yù)測方面競爭的基于agent的模型(ABM)。我們針對小型開放經(jīng)濟體的ABM使用了來自國民核算、部門核算、投入產(chǎn)出表、政府統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)以及人口普查和商業(yè)人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的微觀和宏觀數(shù)據(jù)。該模型包含了歐洲核算體系(ESA 2010)分類的所有經(jīng)濟活動，并包括了擁有數(shù)百萬異質(zhì)代理的所有經(jīng)濟部門。ABM的詳細結(jié)構(gòu)除了作為一個綜合變量預(yù)測的有競爭力的模型框架外，還允許細分為部門級別的預(yù)測。使用該詳細結(jié)構(gòu)，我們通過預(yù)測奧地利為抗擊COVID-19大流行而采取的封鎖措施的中期宏觀經(jīng)濟影響來演示ABM。該模型的潛在應(yīng)用包括壓力測試和預(yù)測貨幣或財政宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的影響。

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10.Does working from home work? A natural experiment from lockdowns

在家工作有用嗎?這是封鎖帶來的自然實驗

Lucas Shen

Using tracked changes from a large open-source software platform, this paper studies how working from home affected the output of individuals working in tech. The basis of the natural experiment comes from idiosyncratic and state-imposed workplace closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. I find a negative but almost-negligible change in individual-level output of 0.5 percent (standard error of 0.091 percent). Overall, and based on descriptive analyses of the time-stamped data, tracked changes in software development cadences approximate regular work activity and provide a useful avenue for future studies of work.

通過使用一個大型開源軟件平臺的跟蹤變化，本文研究了在家工作如何影響在科技領(lǐng)域工作的個人的產(chǎn)出。自然實驗的基礎(chǔ)來自COVID-19大流行期間獨特的和國家強制的工作場所關(guān)閉。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，個人層面的產(chǎn)出出現(xiàn)了0.5%的負變化，但幾乎可以忽略不計(標準誤差為0.091%)?？偟膩碚f，基于時間戳數(shù)據(jù)的描述性分析，跟蹤了軟件開發(fā)節(jié)奏的變化，接近正常的工作活動，并為未來的工作研究提供了一個有用的途徑。

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11.Bank capital requirement shocks: A narrative perspective

銀行資本要求沖擊:敘事視角

Antonio M. Conti, Andrea Nobili, Federico M. Signoretti

We provide new estimates of the impact of shocks to bank capital requirements on lending supply and macroeconomic activity based on a Bayesian VAR estimated on Italian data and identified combining sign and narrative restrictions. Narrative restrictions are based on the EBA 2011 Stress Test (ST) and the ECB 2014 Comprehensive Assessment (CA) and are corroborated by evidence from the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey. IRFs show that shocks to required capital persistently reduce R.W.A. and loan supply and lead to a temporary decline in GDP. Based on historical decomposition, the ST and the CA increased banks’ Tier 1 ratio by 40 bps and determined a contraction in loan supply and GDP after two years of up to 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. Results are robust to using alternative narrative restrictions and hold also when controlling for market pressure during the sovereign debt crisis and for global shocks to bank capitalization.

我們基于對意大利數(shù)據(jù)的貝葉斯VAR估計，并確定了符號和敘述限制的結(jié)合，提供了銀行資本要求沖擊對貸款供應(yīng)和宏觀經(jīng)濟活動的影響的新估計。敘述限制基于EBA 2011年壓力測試(ST)和歐洲央行2014年綜合評估(CA)，并由歐元區(qū)銀行貸款調(diào)查的證據(jù)證實。IRFs表明，對必需資本的沖擊持續(xù)地降低了r.w.a和貸款供應(yīng)，并導(dǎo)致GDP的暫時下降。根據(jù)歷史分解，ST和CA將銀行的一級比率提高了40個基點，并確定貸款供應(yīng)和GDP在兩年后分別收縮1.5%和0.5%。在控制了主權(quán)債務(wù)危機期間的市場壓力和全球?qū)︺y行資本的沖擊后，結(jié)果在使用其他敘事限制時也是穩(wěn)健的。

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12.Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?

流動性陷阱中的財政刺激:常規(guī)政策還是非常規(guī)政策?

Matthieu Lemoine, Jesper Lindé

Recent influential work argue that a gradual increase in the sales tax stimulates economic activity in a liquidity trap by boosting inflation expectations. Higher public infrastructure investment should also be more expansive in a liquidity trap than in normal times by raising the potential interest rate and increasing aggregate demand. We analyze the relative merits of these policies in New Keynesian models with and without endogenous private capital formation and heterogeneity when monetary policy does not respond by raising policy rates. Our key finding is that the effectiveness of sales tax hikes differs notably across various model specifications, whereas the benefits of higher public infrastructure investment are more robust in alternative model environments. We therefore conclude that fiscal policymakers in liquidity traps should consider spending opportunities and not merely rely on tax policies to stimulate growth.

最近有影響力的研究認為，逐步提高銷售稅會提高通脹預(yù)期，從而刺激陷入流動性陷阱的經(jīng)濟活動。在流動性陷阱中，通過提高潛在利率和增加總需求，增加公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資也應(yīng)該比正常時期更具擴大性。在貨幣政策不以提高政策利率作為回應(yīng)的情況下，我們在有和沒有內(nèi)生私人資本形成和異質(zhì)性的情況下，用新凱恩斯模型分析了這些政策的相對優(yōu)點。我們的主要發(fā)現(xiàn)是，提高銷售稅的有效性在不同的模型規(guī)范中存在顯著差異，而在其他模型環(huán)境中，更高的公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的收益更穩(wěn)健。因此，我們的結(jié)論是，處于流動性陷阱中的財政政策制定者應(yīng)該考慮支出機會，而不僅僅是依靠稅收政策來刺激增長。

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13.Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union

歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟的貨幣-財政側(cè)風(fēng)

Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco, Matthieu Tarbé

We study the monetary–fiscal mix in the European Monetary Union. The medium and long-run effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy are analysed by combining monetary policy shocks identified in a Structural VAR, and the general government budget constraint featuring a single central bank and multiple fiscal authorities. In response to a conventional easing of the policy rate, the cumulated response of the fiscal deficit is positive. Conversely, in response to an unconventional easing affecting the long end of the yield curve, the primary fiscal position barely moves. This is consistent with the long-run effect of unconventional monetary easing on the price index, which is about half that of conventional easing. The aggregate long-run cumulated surplus is mainly driven by Germany’s fiscal policy during the period in which unconventional monetary policy was adopted.

我們研究了歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟的貨幣-財政組合。本文結(jié)合結(jié)構(gòu)性VAR所識別的貨幣政策沖擊，以及單一央行和多財政部門的政府一般預(yù)算約束，分析了常規(guī)和非常規(guī)貨幣政策的中長期效應(yīng)。作為對政策利率常規(guī)寬松的回應(yīng)，財政赤字的累積反應(yīng)是積極的。相反，為了應(yīng)對影響收益率曲線長端的非常規(guī)寬松政策，主要財政狀況幾乎沒有變化。這與非常規(guī)貨幣寬松政策對物價指數(shù)的長期影響是一致的，其影響約為常規(guī)寬松政策的一半。長期累計盈余總量主要是由德國采取非常規(guī)貨幣政策期間的財政政策驅(qū)動的。

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14.Firm behaviour under negative deposit rates

負存款利率下的企業(yè)行為

Kim Abildgren, Andreas Kuchler

Using rich microdata from Denmark, the first country in the world to move its key monetary-policy rate below zero, we find that firms which become exposed to negative interest rates on their bank deposits increase their fixed investments and employment to a larger extent than what can be explained by the associated reduction in the level of interest rates. They also tend to rebalance their liquid portfolio, reduce their degree of leverage and become more inclined to change bank connections. Our results also indicate that it is the event of becoming exposed to negative rates (the extensive margin), not the share of deposits exposed to negative interest rates (the intensive margin), that matters for firm behaviour. These findings support the existence of a corporate channel of monetary transmission when bank deposit rates cross zero and become negative.

利用丹麥(世界上第一個將關(guān)鍵貨幣政策利率降至零以下的國家)豐富的微觀數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，銀行存款面臨負利率的企業(yè)增加固定投資和就業(yè)的程度，超過了相關(guān)利率水平下降所能解釋的程度。它們還傾向于重新平衡流動性投資組合，降低杠桿程度，并更傾向于改變與銀行的關(guān)系。我們的結(jié)果還表明，對企業(yè)行為至關(guān)重要的是受到負利率(擴展邊際)影響的事件，而不是受到負利率(集約邊際)影響的存款份額。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)支持了當(dāng)銀行存款利率超過零并變?yōu)樨撝禃r，企業(yè)貨幣傳導(dǎo)渠道的存在。

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15.Structural change and productivity growth in Europe — Past, present and future

歐洲的結(jié)構(gòu)變化和生產(chǎn)率增長-過去、現(xiàn)在和未來

Georg Duernecker, Miguel Sanchez-Martinez

This paper studies the effect of structural change on the historical path of aggregate labor productivity growth for a large sample of European countries, and it builds a quantitative multi-sector growth model to analyze the potential impact that structural change may have on future productivity growth. We document that the observed reallocation of economic activity since the 1970s towards the service sector has exerted a strongly negative effect on aggregate productivity growth in most European countries. Moreover, we perform a quantitative analysis to show that the expected path of structural change might continue to have a sizeable dent on future productivity growth in Europe. By contrast, the impact in the U.S. is expected to rapidly diminish. We show that this differential result can be explained by the large expansion, in Europe, of certain service sub-sectors characterized by stagnant productivity.

本文以歐洲國家為樣本，研究了結(jié)構(gòu)變動對總勞動生產(chǎn)率增長歷史路徑的影響，并構(gòu)建了一個定量的多部門增長模型，分析了結(jié)構(gòu)變動對未來生產(chǎn)率增長可能產(chǎn)生的潛在影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，自20世紀70年代以來，經(jīng)濟活動向服務(wù)業(yè)的重新分配對大多數(shù)歐洲國家的總生產(chǎn)率增長產(chǎn)生了強烈的負面影響。此外，我們進行了定量分析，以表明結(jié)構(gòu)性變化的預(yù)期路徑可能會繼續(xù)對歐洲未來的生產(chǎn)率增長產(chǎn)生重大影響。相比之下，預(yù)計美國的影響將迅速減弱。我們表明，這種差異結(jié)果可以解釋為，在歐洲，某些以生產(chǎn)率停滯為特征的服務(wù)子部門的大幅擴張。

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16.Gender-based price discrimination in the annuity market: Evidence from Chile

年金市場中的性別價格歧視:來自智利的證據(jù)

Piera Bello

This paper provides the first evidence for discriminatory behaviour against female consumers in the annuity market. It focuses on Chile, where an electronic bidding system allows retirees to receive offers, simultaneously from several firms in the market for the same standardised annuity product. By exploiting within-individual variation in initial offers across firms, this analysis shows that firms with market power offer more unfairly priced annuities to women than to men. This result is driven by highly rated firms. Gender differences in financial literacy can explain why firms find it profitable to offer higher prices to women.

本文提供了年金市場上對女性消費者的歧視行為的第一個證據(jù)。它專注于智利，那里的電子投標系統(tǒng)允許退休人員同時從市場上的幾家公司收到相同標準化年金產(chǎn)品的報價。通過利用不同公司初始報價的個體差異，該分析表明，具有市場力量的公司向女性提供的年金定價比男性更不公平。這一結(jié)果是由高評級公司推動的。財務(wù)知識上的性別差異可以解釋為什么公司認為向女性提供更高的價格是有利可圖的。

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17.Immigrant intergenerational mobility: A focus on childhood environment

移民代際流動性:關(guān)注兒童環(huán)境

Cristina Bratu, Valentin Bolotnyy

Over 60% of immigrant parents in Sweden start off in the bottom quintile of the income distribution, yet only about 30% of their children are still in the bottom income quintile in adulthood. This progress notwithstanding, we show using administrative data that immigrant children who grow up in the 20th income percentile place three income ranks lower than native children of similarly low-income parents. This income gap cannot be explained by differences in parent education levels, family structure, or municipality of residence. The gap can, however, be explained by differences in immediate, 100?×?100 - m neighborhoods. Immigrant children grow up in relatively denser neighborhoods with fewer native-born and high-earning neighbors. Data from Stockholm suggest that immigrant families sort into different neighborhoods than natives due to Sweden’s rental housing allocation mechanism that is based on waiting time rather than market rents.

在瑞典，超過60%的移民父母從收入分配的最底層的五分之一開始，但他們的孩子在成年后仍然處于收入分配的最底層的五分之一，只有大約30%。盡管取得了這一進展，但我們使用行政數(shù)據(jù)表明，在收入第20百分位長大的移民兒童的收入排名比同樣低收入父母的本地兒童低3位。這種收入差距不能用父母教育水平、家庭結(jié)構(gòu)或居住城市的差異來解釋。然而，這種差距可以用直接的100 × 100 m鄰域的差異來解釋。移民兒童在人口相對稠密的社區(qū)長大，本地出生和高收入的鄰居較少。來自斯德哥爾摩的數(shù)據(jù)表明，由于瑞典的租賃住房分配機制是基于等待時間而不是市場租金，移民家庭比當(dāng)?shù)厝朔謱俨煌纳鐓^(qū)。

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18.Saving constraints, inequality, and the credit market response to fiscal stimulus

儲蓄約束、不平等以及信貸市場對財政刺激的反應(yīng)

Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Daniel Murphy, Kieran James Walsh, Eric R. Young

We document substantial heterogeneity in the interest rate response to fiscal stimulus (IRRF) across OECD economies. The IRRF is negative in half of the OECD countries, and it declines with income inequality. To interpret this evidence we develop a model in which moderately-low-income households take on debt to maintain a consumption threshold (effectively a saving constraint). Now burdened with debt, these households use additional income to deleverage. In more unequal economies with more saving-constrained households, increases in government spending tighten credit conditions less (relax credit conditions more), leading to smaller increases (larger declines) in the interest rate.

我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)經(jīng)濟體對財政刺激(IRRF)的利率反應(yīng)存在顯著異質(zhì)性。在一半的經(jīng)合組織國家中，IRRF為負，并且隨著收入不平等而下降。為了解釋這一證據(jù)，我們開發(fā)了一個模型，在該模型中，中等低收入家庭通過舉債來維持消費門檻(實際上是一種儲蓄約束)。這些家庭現(xiàn)在背負著債務(wù)，利用額外的收入去杠桿化。在不平等程度更高、家庭儲蓄受限程度更高的經(jīng)濟體中，政府支出的增加對信貸條件的收緊程度較低(更多地放松信貸條件)，導(dǎo)致利率的增幅較小(降幅較大)。

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19.Taxation, social welfare, and labor market frictions

稅收、社會福利和勞動力市場摩擦

Brendan Epstein, Ryan Nunn, Musa Orak, Elena Patel

Taking taxation inefficiencies as given, a well-known public finance result is that in partial equilibrium the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is a sufficient statistic for the deadweight loss (DWL) from labor income taxation. We revisit this result using a general equilibrium macroeconomic framework with labor search frictions. Our theory parses out the extent to which search frictions in and of themselves can distort the DWL-ETI relationship. Numerical analysis suggests that DWL is nearly 10 percent above the ETI given search frictions, only. Accounting for externalities can drive this figure up to about 20 percent, and accounting unemployment benefits can increase this number up to nearly 40 percent. Parsing out these effects both analytically and quantitatively yields novel results that contribute jointly to the public finance and macroeconomic literatures.

在稅收效率低下的情況下，一個著名的公共財政結(jié)果是，在局部均衡中，應(yīng)納稅收入彈性(ETI)是勞動所得稅無謂損失(DWL)的充分統(tǒng)計量。我們使用一個帶有勞動搜索摩擦的一般均衡宏觀經(jīng)濟框架來重新審視這一結(jié)果。我們的理論分析了搜索摩擦本身可以扭曲DWL-ETI關(guān)系的程度。數(shù)值分析表明，在考慮搜索摩擦的情況下，DWL比ETI高出近10%。計入外部性可以將這一數(shù)字提高到20%左右，計入失業(yè)救濟可以將這一數(shù)字提高到近40%。分析和定量分析這些影響產(chǎn)生了新的結(jié)果，共同有助于公共財政和宏觀經(jīng)濟文獻。

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18.Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises

防范金融災(zāi)難:宏觀審慎政策與金融危機

Alvaro Fernandez-Gallardo

The ultimate goal of macroprudential policy is to prevent and reduce the costs of systemic financial crises, and thus contribute to promoting sustainable economic growth. However, despite the active role played by such policies in recent decades, there is still limited empirical evidence regarding whether prudential regulation is effective to enhance financial stability by preventing and mitigating crisis risk. This paper seeks to close that gap by studying the relationship between macroprudential policy and both the likelihood and severity of financial crises. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, I show that macroprudential policy tightenings are successful at reducing the frequency of systemic financial crises. Moreover, this result holds even if macroprudential policies are implemented when the economy is already experiencing a financial boom or when monetary conditions are rather accommodative. I point to the prevention and mitigation of financial booms as the main transmission mechanism through which macroprudential policy defuses crisis risk. Second, I find that macroprudential policy enhances the resilience of the financial system, by dampening the output losses associated with future systemic financial crises. The latter result implies that macroprudential policy not only makes financial crises less likely, but also less painful.

宏觀審慎政策的最終目標是預(yù)防和降低系統(tǒng)性金融危機的成本，從而有助于促進經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)增長。然而，盡管近幾十年來這些政策發(fā)揮了積極作用，但關(guān)于審慎監(jiān)管是否能夠有效地通過預(yù)防和緩解危機風(fēng)險來增強金融穩(wěn)定性的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)仍然有限。本文試圖通過研究宏觀審慎政策與金融危機發(fā)生的可能性和嚴重程度之間的關(guān)系來彌補這一差距。本文的貢獻有兩個方面。首先，我表明，宏觀審慎政策收緊在降低系統(tǒng)性金融危機發(fā)生的頻率方面是成功的。此外，即使在經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷金融繁榮或貨幣條件相當(dāng)寬松的情況下實施宏觀審慎政策，這一結(jié)果也是成立的。我指出，預(yù)防和緩解金融繁榮是宏觀審慎政策化解危機風(fēng)險的主要傳導(dǎo)機制。其次，我發(fā)現(xiàn)宏觀審慎政策通過抑制與未來系統(tǒng)性金融危機相關(guān)的產(chǎn)出損失，增強了金融體系的彈性。后一種結(jié)果意味著，宏觀審慎政策不僅降低了發(fā)生金融危機的可能性，也降低了危機帶來的痛苦。

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19.Gains from monetary policy cooperation under asymmetric currency pricing

非對稱貨幣定價下貨幣政策合作的收益

Myunghyun Kim

In most international trade transactions, the U.S. dollar is used. Hence, this study considers optimal monetary policy in a two-country model under asymmetric currency pricing (ACP) in which U.S. (Home) firms use producer currency pricing (PCP) while firms in the rest of the world (Foreign) use local currency pricing (LCP). In the ACP model, there is an additional inefficiency, namely, the internal relative price distortion compared with the LCP model and the distortion arising from deviations from the law of one price compared with the PCP model. Consequently, welfare gains from monetary policy cooperation in the ACP model are substantially greater compared with the LCP and PCP models. Moreover, the noncooperative Foreign policymakers in the ACP model can manipulate not only the internal relative price but also deviations from the law of one price in favor of their own welfare through nominal exchange rate adjustment, whereas the noncooperative Home policymakers can control neither. This result rationalizes the fact that the U.S. designates currency manipulators to protect its welfare. Therefore, gains from cooperation in Home are larger than in Foreign. Furthermore, I find that there are substantial gains from cooperation in the ACP model even under the conditions that remove gains from cooperation in the LCP and PCP models.

在大多數(shù)國際貿(mào)易交易中，都使用美元。因此，本文考慮了非對稱貨幣定價(ACP)下的兩國模型的最優(yōu)貨幣政策，其中美國(本國)企業(yè)使用生產(chǎn)者貨幣定價(PCP)，而世界其他國家(外國)企業(yè)使用本地貨幣定價(LCP)。在ACP模型中，存在額外的無效率，即與LCP模型相比存在內(nèi)部相對價格扭曲，與PCP模型相比存在偏離一價定律而產(chǎn)生的扭曲。因此，與LCP和PCP模型相比，ACP模型中貨幣政策合作的福利收益要大得多。此外，在ACP模型中，不合作的外國決策者不僅可以操縱內(nèi)部相對價格，還可以通過名義匯率調(diào)整來偏離單一價格規(guī)律，從而有利于本國的福利，而不合作的本國決策者兩者都不能控制。這一結(jié)果合理化了美國指認匯率操縱國是為了保護其福利的事實。因此，國內(nèi)合作的收益大于國外合作的收益。此外，我發(fā)現(xiàn)，即使在去掉LCP和PCP模型中合作收益的條件下，ACP模型中的合作也有實質(zhì)性的收益。

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20.The value of sick pay

病假工資的價值

Abi Adams-Prassl, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin, Christopher Rauh

Not all countries provide universal access to publicly funded paid sick pay. Amongst countries that do, compensation rates can be low and coverage incomplete. This leaves a significant role for employer-provided paid sick pay in many countries. In this paper, we study who has access to employer-provided sick pay and how much it is valued by workers for themselves and others. We find that workers in jobs with high contact to others are particularly unlikely to have employer provided sick pay, as are economically insecure workers who are least able to afford unpaid time off work. We find that workers without sick pay are more likely to say that they will work when experiencing cold-like symptoms and are less willing to expose themselves to health risks at work during the pandemic. Using vignettes, we reveal that large shares of workers have a very high, but even more have a very low willingness to sacrifice earnings for access to sick pay. Together our findings highlight the unequal distribution of access to sick pay and the potentially strong negative externalities of not providing it publicly. The pandemic may have made these issues more salient as perceived probabilities of having to self-isolate are positively related to support for publicly provided sick pay. Finally, we find that providing information on the health externality of paid sick leave increases support for the public provision of sick pay, suggesting that there might be a public under-provision because individuals do not factor in the externalities.

并非所有國家都能普遍獲得公共資助的帶薪病假工資。在這些國家中，補償率可能很低，覆蓋范圍也不完整。在許多國家，雇主提供的帶薪病假工資發(fā)揮著重要作用。在本文中，我們研究了誰有機會獲得雇主提供的病假工資，以及工人對自己和其他人的價值有多大。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，從事與他人密切接觸的工作的工人特別不可能得到雇主提供的病假工資，經(jīng)濟上沒有保障的工人也是如此，他們最無力負擔(dān)無薪休假。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，沒有病假工資的工人更有可能說，當(dāng)出現(xiàn)感冒癥狀時，他們會工作，在大流行期間，他們不太愿意在工作中暴露在健康風(fēng)險中。使用小插曲，我們揭示了很大一部分工人有一個非常高的，但更多的人有一個非常低的意愿犧牲收入來獲得病假工資。我們的研究結(jié)果共同強調(diào)了病假工資分配不均的問題，以及不公開提供病假工資可能帶來的強烈負面外部性。大流行可能使這些問題更加突出，因為人們認為必須自我隔離的可能性與對公共提供的病假工資的支持呈正相關(guān)。最后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，提供關(guān)于帶薪病假的健康外部性的信息增加了公眾提供病假工資的支持，這表明可能存在公共提供不足的情況，因為個人沒有考慮外部性。

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21.Consumer mobility and expenditure during the COVID-19 containments: Evidence from French transaction data

COVID-19遏制期間的消費者流動性和支出:來自法國交易數(shù)據(jù)的證據(jù)

David Bounie, Youssouf Camara, John W. Galbraith

This paper investigates the effects of the pandemic containment periods in France on individuals’ movements, expenditure and adaptation to the shock, using billions of French bank card transactions measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We measure not only the effect on consumer expenditure, but also on quantities directly related to the containment restrictions, such as consumer mobility, number of retailers visited, and inter-regional purchases. The results show large effects on these measures of consumers’ movements, as well as on both online and offline measures of expenditure, particularly in the first containment period. We also find evidence that consumers adjusted rapidly during the first containment period, mitigating the effects of mobility restrictions via an increasing shift toward online purchasing, and that the nature of the adaptation differed for different types of purchase.

本文使用COVID-19大流行之前和期間測量的數(shù)十億法國銀行卡交易，調(diào)查了法國大流行遏制期對個人流動、支出和適應(yīng)沖擊的影響。我們不僅衡量對消費者支出的影響，還衡量與遏制限制直接相關(guān)的數(shù)量，如消費者流動性、走訪零售商數(shù)量和地區(qū)間采購。結(jié)果顯示，這些消費者流動措施以及在線和線下支出措施受到了很大影響，特別是在第一個遏制期。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，有證據(jù)表明，消費者在第一個遏制期迅速調(diào)整，通過越來越多地轉(zhuǎn)向在線購買來緩解流動性限制的影響，而且適應(yīng)的性質(zhì)因購買類型的不同而不同。

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22.The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics

不同年齡流行病的宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)

Marta Giagheddu, Andrea Papetti

We incorporate age-specific socio-economic interactions in a SIR macroeconomic model to study the role of demographic factors for the COVID-19 epidemic evolution, its macroeconomic effects and possible containment measures. We capture the endogenous response of rational individuals who choose to reduce inter- and intra-generational social interactions, consumption- and labor-related personal exposure to the virus, while not internalizing the impact of their actions on others. We find that social distancing measures targeted to the elderly (who face higher mortality risk and are not part of the labor force) are best suited to save lives and mitigate output losses. The optimal economic shutdown generates small gains in terms of lives saved and large output losses, for any given type of social distancing. These results are confirmed by calibrating the model to match real epidemic and economic data in the context of a scenario exercise.

我們將特定年齡的社會經(jīng)濟互動納入SIR宏觀經(jīng)濟模型，以研究人口因素對COVID-19疫情演變的作用、其宏觀經(jīng)濟影響和可能的遏制措施。我們捕捉了理性個體的內(nèi)生反應(yīng)，他們選擇減少代際和代內(nèi)的社會互動、消費和勞動相關(guān)的個人對病毒的暴露，而不是內(nèi)化他們的行為對他人的影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，針對老年人(他們面臨更高的死亡風(fēng)險，不屬于勞動力)的社會距離措施最適合拯救生命和減輕產(chǎn)出損失。對于任何一種特定的社交距離措施來說，最優(yōu)的經(jīng)濟停歇在挽救生命方面帶來的收益都很小，而產(chǎn)出損失卻很大。通過在情景演練的背景下校準模型以匹配真實的流行病和經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)，這些結(jié)果得到了證實。

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23.Germany’s capacity to work from home

德國在家工作的能力

Jean-Victor Alipour, Oliver Falck, Simone Schüller

We propose an index of working from home (WFH) capacity for the German economy, drawing on rich survey and administrative data. We find that 56?percent of jobs are WFH feasible, most of which are located in urban areas and in highly digitized industries. Using individual-level data on tasks and work conditions, we show that heterogeneity in WFH feasibility is largely explained by differences in task content. WFH feasible jobs are typically characterized by cognitive, non-manual tasks, and PC usage. We compare our survey-based measure with popular task-based measures of WFH capacity, which usually rely on determining tasks that are incompatible with WFH, and show that task-based approaches capture variation in WFH capacity across occupations fairly accurately. A simple measure of PC use intensity will generally constitute a suitable proxy for WFH capacity. Finally, we demonstrate that our WFH index is a strong predictor of actual WFH outcomes during the Covid-19 crisis and discuss applications in the context of the pandemic and the future of work.

我們利用豐富的調(diào)查和管理數(shù)據(jù)，為德國經(jīng)濟提出了一個在家工作(WFH)能力指數(shù)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，56%的工作是可行的，其中大多數(shù)位于城市地區(qū)和高度數(shù)字化的行業(yè)。利用任務(wù)和工作條件的個體層面數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)WFH可行性的異質(zhì)性在很大程度上可以被任務(wù)內(nèi)容的差異所解釋。WFH可行工作的典型特征是認知、非手工任務(wù)和PC使用。我們比較了我們的基于調(diào)查的衡量方法與流行的基于任務(wù)的WFH能力衡量方法，后者通常依賴于確定與WFH不兼容的任務(wù)，并表明基于任務(wù)的方法相當(dāng)準確地捕獲了不同職業(yè)的WFH能力差異。對PC使用強度的簡單衡量通常將構(gòu)成WFH容量的合適代理。最后，我們證明，我們的WFH指數(shù)是Covid-19危機期間實際WFH結(jié)果的強大預(yù)測器，并在大流行和未來工作的背景下討論應(yīng)用。

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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