正文翻譯
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：chinawungbo2 轉載請注明出處

Fear seizes the TV presenter at the very moment her TV studio starts to shake. She stops, mid-monologue, and falls silent. The shaking worsens. Other presenters seated around the awkwardly large plastic table sit stock still, save for a few worried glances left and right. Then the shaking gets stronger. The rattling of equipment above them can be heard. One broadcaster turns his gaze upward to see. The main presenter gasps. It’s time to go.

電視演播廳開始晃動,女廣播員的臉上的恐懼溢于言表,話說了一半就停下來,陷入沉默。搖晃變得更劇烈了。圍坐在笨重的大塑料桌旁的其他主持人呆若木雞，憂心忡忡地左右瞥了幾眼。緊接著，演播廳晃動得更加劇烈，可以聽到頭頂上的設備吱嘎作響。一名廣播員仰頭看了看，節(jié)目主持人倒抽一口冷氣。該撤了。

As the South Korean live TV team hastily discarded body microphones and abandoned their set, the seismic ripples of a 5.5 magnitude earthquake continued to shudder across Pohang. It was a powerful jolting. Other footage shows people running from buildings as walls collapse behind them. An entire city of half a million residents was left in shock. But this quake wasn’t a freak natural event. It was started by people.

這支韓國的電視直播團隊隨即匆忙扔掉身上的麥克風，丟下了他們的設備，此時，這場5.5級地震波繼續(xù)波及浦項整座城市。這場地震十分劇烈。其他視頻片段顯示，人們從大樓逃出來，他們身后的建筑物墻身隨即倒塌。這座擁有50萬人口的城市陷入驚慌。但這次地震并不是一次反常的自然事件。然而，這場地震是人為造成的。

While we like to use metaphors like “on solid ground” in English, on a geological scale the stuff below our feet is anything but. It’s full of shifting planes of material with varying densities. There are faults and fractures, often with ribbons of fluid running through them. There are sediments, clays and bedrock. Not to mention, on an even bigger scale, gigantic tectonic plates rubbing against or pulling apart from one another. In some places, the ground is like a tower of toy bricks just waiting to topple.

雖然在英語中我們喜歡用“在穩(wěn)固的基礎上”這樣的比喻，但從地質的角度來看，我們腳下的大地絕不穩(wěn)固，全是由不同密度物質組成的移動巖層，有斷層和裂縫，并有地下水流穿過。這里還有沉積物、粘土和基巖。更不用說從更宏觀的角度，有巨大的地殼構造板塊相互擠壓或撕離。在一些地帶，地表就像一座玩具磚塔，只消一推即倒。

Bill Ellsworth remembers the first time he saw images of people fleeing buildings as the Pohang earthquake rattled the city.

埃爾斯沃思（Bill Ellsworth）猶記得他第一次看到浦項地震時人們逃出大樓時的情景。

“They were very fortunate that no-one was killed, having seen some of the security cam footage,” he says. Ellsworth, from Stanford University’s Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity, was part of the international team that investigated what happened.

他說：“我后來看到了一些監(jiān)控攝像頭的視頻，他們非常幸運，沒有人死亡?！卑査刮炙紴樗固垢４髮W誘發(fā)和觸發(fā)地震活動中心（Stanford University's Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity）的學者，是調查浦項地震的國際團隊的一員。

The stakes for these investigators were high. They knew at the outset that to label Pohang a human-induced earthquake would be a big deal. Earthquakes are measured on the Richter scale – which is “l(fā)ogarithmic” – meaning an increase in one point signifies a 10-fold increase in strength. A quake of about 3 on the Richter scale would be felt by inhabitants, and 4 would be enough to knock obxts off shelves. A 5.5 or higher magnitude event caused by human activity is very rare, and although it is still considered moderate, it would be enough to damage buildings.

這些調查人員冒著很大風險。他們從一開始就知道，將浦項地震定性為人為地震是非同小可之事。地震采用里克特級數（Richter scale）計量，這是“對數級”，意味著每增加一級，強度就增加10倍。居民可以感覺到里氏3級左右的地震，4級地震足以將貨架上的物品震落。由人類活動引起的5.5級或更高級別的地震非常罕見，盡管仍被認為是中等強度，但已經足以摧毀建筑物。

“For whatever reason there was a pathway that allowed the fluid to escape the borehole,” explains Ellsworth. By flushing even more fluid down, the drillers secured their borehole. But the huge pressure now present caused what no-one wanted: seismicity.

埃爾斯沃思解釋說：“不管是什么原因，有一條裂縫讓鉆井液從鉆孔中流出?！睕_下更多的鉆井液后，鉆井工們保住了他們的鉆孔。但是現在巨大的水壓造成了人們不想看到的結果：地震活動。

“It triggered some very tiny events, events that were so small they were not noted at the time,” says Ellsworth.

埃爾斯沃思說：“水壓引發(fā)了一些非常輕微的地震，因為強度非常小，當時沒有人注意到?！?br/>
What the drilling team don’t appear to have realised then, but which spatial analysis of these mini earthquakes later showed, was that the drilling had actually crossed a fault line – a boundary underground where two planes of earth meet. Movement of earth can happen along these faults. That’s what causes earthquakes.

后來對這些輕微地震的空間分析發(fā)現，鉆探實際上已經碰到斷層線，即地下兩個巖層面相交的邊界。而鉆探小組當時似乎沒有意識到這一點。沿著這些斷層可能發(fā)生地層移動，這就是導致地震的原因。

Ideally, fault lines in areas subjected to drilling or fluid injection are known about and are usually avoided. In this case, partly because there had been no indication of a fault line at the surface, the South Korean team had no idea what they had drilled into. As Ellsworth puts it: “That was very unlucky.”

理想情況是，若果事前已知鉆井或灌注井液的巖區(qū)有斷層線，通常是可以避開斷層線鉆井。但在這次事故中，部分原因是地表沒有跡象表明地下存在斷層線，韓國的鉆探隊根本不知道自己鉆到了什么地方。正如埃爾斯沃思所說：“這是非常不幸的。”

“This fault was what we call critically stressed – only a small change in conditions could cause that fault to move, which is ultimately what happened.”

“這個斷層就是我們所說的臨界應力，只要有地層有微小變化就能導致斷層移動，而最終發(fā)生的正是這種情況。”

Those first, smaller earthquakes, overlooked at the time, were a sign that something wasn’t right. It was only a few weeks later that the 5.5 magnitude earthquake hit.

起初那些輕微的地震被忽視了，那其實是一個信號，說明出了問題。僅僅幾周后，5.5級地震就發(fā)生了。

Data collected by Ellsworth and his colleagues convinced them that the event was human-induced. While there has been some debate over the results, the findings have already been accepted by the South Korean government, which says it will now dismantle the geothermal plant.

埃爾斯沃思和他的同事們收集的數據使他們相信，這次地震是人為造成的。盡管對調查結果存在一些爭議，但韓國政府已經接受了調查結果，并表示將拆除地熱發(fā)電廠。

Could the drilling team have noticed the early seismicity and stopped drilling just in time? It’s possible, says Ellsworth, but they were relying on a relatively simple traffic light system to help them judge whether drilling was safe. This involves monitoring seismicity and only ceasing to drill should a certain magnitude of quake be reached. Ellsworth points out that in this case the magnitude of those mini quakes was very small, but plotting where they occurred reveals the presence of a fault. That kind of more comprehensive analysis could, in theory, have alxed drilling operators to the gravity of the situation earlier.

鉆探小組是否注意到了早期的地震活動并及時停止鉆探？埃爾斯沃思說，這是有可能的，但是鉆探小組當時依靠的是一個相對簡單的交通燈式的系統(tǒng)來判斷鉆井是否安全。該系統(tǒng)只有地震達到一定的震級時才能監(jiān)測到有地震發(fā)生，才能停止鉆探。埃爾斯沃思指出，在這次事故中，這些輕微地震的震級非常小，因此這個監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)未能察覺，而調查小組測繪發(fā)生這些微地震的區(qū)域，發(fā)現此處有斷層存在。理論上，這種更全面的分析可以讓鉆井操作人員更早意識到形勢的嚴重性。

Because a firm called UK Oil and Gas (UKOG) has been extracting oil nearby, many locals are worried that the activity is disturbing ancient fault lines and causing the quakes. There has been a series of heated protests at the drilling site. Many have turned to scientists to see if they can prove what is really going on, which is where Hicks comes in.

由于英國石油天然氣投資公司（UKOG）一直在附近開采石油，許多當地人擔心這種活動會破壞古老的斷層線，引發(fā)地震。鉆井現場曾進行過一系列激烈的抗議活動。許多人求助于科學家，看看他們能否證明到底發(fā)生了什么，這正是?？怂挂芯康?。

“That’s what we call the digitiser,” he says, enthusiastically pointing to a small box inside the black case. “That’s just turning analogue signal into some sort of digital form and then we can later convert it into velocity, metres per second or acceleration.”

?？怂古d致勃勃地指著黑色盒子里的一個小盒子說：“這就是我們所說的數字轉換器，就是把模擬信號轉換成某種數字形式，然后我們可以把它轉換成速度、每秒多少米或加速度?！?br/>
After stamping on the ground he shows me the huge spikes that pop up a few minutes later on the near-real-time chart of tremors he can check online. Having multiple instruments in the field means that incidental noise, say from passing vehicles (or stamping scientists), can be discounted. Only when tremors appear uniformly on a number of the seismic monitors does that indicate an earthquake.

他往地上狠狠跺了幾下腳，然后向我展示了可以在線查看的近乎實時的震動圖表，幾分鐘后圖表上出現了巨大峰值。現場有多個儀器，這意味著偶然的噪音，比如過往車輛（或跺腳的科學家）發(fā)出的雜音可以忽略不計。只有當許多地震監(jiān)測儀一致出現震動時，才表明發(fā)生了地震。

“Regardless of the cause, it’s still an interesting sequence,” he says.

他說：“不管原因是什么，這仍然是一系列令人感興趣的事件?！?br/>
As we stroll through the countryside, near to the epicentre of the biggest quake – an amusingly boring field – we bump into a lady named Jackie Wilson, who is walking her dog. When that 3.1 quake hit in February, her cat “l(fā)eapt off the bed”, she says.

我們在鄉(xiāng)間漫步時，走到薩里郡最大地震的震中，一個有趣的鉆井場所附近，我們遇到一位名叫威爾遜（Jackie Wilson）的女士，她正在遛狗。她說，今年2月3.1級地震發(fā)生時，她的貓“從床上跳了下來”。

“Somebody did come round with a petition for the locals to sign against all of this drilling going on,” she adds, “I guess it has kicked off since then, hasn’t it?”

她補充道：“確實有人帶著請愿書，請當地人簽名反對所有正在進行的鉆探活動。我想從那以后地震活動就開始了，不是嗎？”

Hicks has fielded emails, calls and tweets from locals similarly curious about what’s going on. But for now he is sticking to his conclusion that the quakes are natural. A few weeks after we meet, he and colleagues publish preliminary results of their investigation online. “Overall, we find no indicators in the earthquake parameters that would strongly suggest an induced source,” they write.

希克斯已經回復了當地人發(fā)來的電子郵件、電話和推特，當地人也同樣好奇這場地震到底是怎么回事。但是現在?？怂谷詧猿肿约旱慕Y論，認為地震是自然的。我們見面幾周后，他和同事在網上公布了初步調查結果。他們寫道：“總的來說，我們在地震參數中沒有發(fā)現強烈暗示人為原因的跡象?！?br/>
But public concern that tremors might be man-made is becoming a more common story around the world. Especially when drilling or geothermal activity happens in the same place as earthquakes.

但公眾對地震可能是人為造成的擔憂，在世界各地正變得越來越普遍。尤其是當鉆探或地熱活動與地震發(fā)生在同一地點時。

People are clearly getting used to the concept of anthropogenic seismicity, which can be either human-induced or triggered. The latter is a slightly different condition in which earthquakes are mostly caused by tectonic activity but human activity plays a role in how they occur.

很明顯，人們已經能接受人為活動可能造成地震的概念，地震可以由人類行為誘發(fā)或直接觸發(fā)。后者與前者略微不同，在這種情況下，地震主要是由地質構造活動引起的，但人類活動對地震的發(fā)生起著一定作用。

One paper published earlier this year described how microseismic monitoring apparently helped to keep fluid-induced seismicity to a minimum at a geothermal project in Finland. In that case, the team listened carefully to small-scale seismicity, which in turn motivated them to occasionally lower the rate of fluid injection or wait for longer periods between pumping. The authors of the paper think this kept any more serious shaking at bay.

今年早些時候發(fā)表的一篇論文描述了在芬蘭的一個地熱工程中，微震監(jiān)測明顯有助于將流體誘發(fā)的地震活動降到最低。在該案例中，鉆井團隊仔細監(jiān)聽小規(guī)模的地震活動，因而促使他們不時降低注液速度，或者拉長兩次注水之間的等待時間。這篇論文的作者們認為，這阻止了較嚴重的地震發(fā)生。

Some will never be comfortable with the idea of drilling near populated places. The potential consequences, they argue, are just too great, even if the probability of setting off a big earthquake remains small. Earthquake detectives, though, can in theory help to assess the situation while drilling is going on, not just after the fact, and raise the alarm should that drilling become dangerous. By listening carefully to what the ground is telling us, companies and governments may be better equipped to react – before it is too late.

有些人對人口密集地區(qū)附近鉆井永遠心懷不安。他們認為，即使引發(fā)大地震的可能性很小，但潛在的后果太嚴重。盡管如此，在理論上，地震偵探們可以幫助評估正在進行的鉆探情況，并在鉆探變得危險時發(fā)出警報，而不僅僅是在事故發(fā)生后才采取行動。通過仔細傾聽大地發(fā)出的聲音，企業(yè)和政府或許能更好地做出反應，以免為時過晚。