The world economy

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

Markets are braced for a global downturn

市場已做好迎接全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的準(zhǔn)備

The signals from bonds, currencies and commodities are increasingly alarming

債券、貨幣和大宗商品傳遞來的信號(hào)越來越令人擔(dān)憂

Aug 17th 2019

LOOKING FOR meaning in financial markets is like looking for patterns in a violent sea. The information that emerges is the product of buying and selling by people, with all their contradictions. Prices reflect a mix of emotion, biases and cold-eyed calculation. Yet taken together markets express something about both the mood of investors and the temper of the times. The most commonly ascribed signal is complacency. Dangers are often ignored until too late. However, the dominant mood in markets today, as it has been for much of the past decade, is not complacency but anxiety. And it is deepening by the day.

在金融市場中尋找內(nèi)涵，就像在洶涌的大海中尋找規(guī)律。呈現(xiàn)在世人面前的信息是人們買賣的產(chǎn)物，存在著各種各樣的矛盾。價(jià)格是情緒、偏見和冷靜的計(jì)算三者綜合的反映。然而，綜合來看，市場既反映了投資者的情緒，也反映了時(shí)代的情緒。最常見的信號(hào)是自滿。危險(xiǎn)往往被忽視，直到為時(shí)已晚才被發(fā)覺。然而，與過去10年的大部分時(shí)間一樣，如今市場的主導(dǎo)情緒不是自滿，而是焦慮。而且逐日加深。

詞匯

cold-eyed/冷靜的；眼光表示冷淡的

complacency/自滿；滿足；自鳴得意

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It is most evident in the astounding appetite for the safest of assets: government bonds. In Germany, where figures this week showed that the economy is shrinking, interest rates are negative all the way from overnight deposits to 30-year bonds. Investors who buy and hold bonds to maturity will make a guaranteed cash loss. In Switzerland negative yields extend all the way to 50-year bonds. Even in indebted and crisis-prone Italy, a ten-year bond gets you only 1.5%. In America, meanwhile, the curve is inverted—interest rates on ten-year bonds are lower than on three-month bills—a peculiar situation that is a harbinger of recession. Angst is evident elsewhere, too. The safe-haven dollar is up against many other currencies. Gold is at a six-year high. Copper prices, a proxy for industrial health, are down sharply. Despite Iran’s seizure of oil tankers in the Gulf, oil prices have sunk to $60 a barrel.

這種焦慮在政府債券——這種令人驚駭?shù)挠滤非蟮淖罘€(wěn)定的資產(chǎn)上得以凸顯。在德國，本周的數(shù)據(jù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)正在萎縮，從隔夜存款到30年期債券，利率通通為負(fù)。購買并持有債券至到期日的投資者將蒙受一定的現(xiàn)金損失。在瑞士，負(fù)利率一直延伸到50年期債券。即使在負(fù)債累累、危機(jī)頻發(fā)的意大利，10年期債券的收益率也只有1.5%。與此同時(shí)，在美國，曲線是反向的——十年期債券的利率低于三個(gè)月期債券的利率——這種特殊的情況是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的先兆。焦慮在其他地方也很明顯。避險(xiǎn)貨幣美元兌許多其他貨幣走強(qiáng)。金價(jià)目前處于6年來的高點(diǎn)。作為工業(yè)健康指標(biāo)的銅價(jià)大幅下跌。盡管伊朗在海灣地區(qū)扣押了油輪，但油價(jià)已跌至每桶60美元。

詞匯

Astounding/令人震驚的；令人驚駭?shù)?/p>

Peculiar/特殊的；獨(dú)特的

Harbinger/先驅(qū)；前兆

Seizure/沒收；奪?。徊东@

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Plenty of people fear that these strange signals portend a global recession. The storm clouds are certainly gathering. This week China said that industrial production is growing at its most sluggish pace since 2002. America’s decade-long expansion is the oldest on record so, whatever economists say, a downturn feels overdue. With interest rates already so low, the capacity to fight one is depleted. Investors fear that the world is turning into Japan, with a torpid economy that struggles to vanquish deflation, and is hence prone to going backwards.

許多人擔(dān)心這些奇怪的信號(hào)預(yù)示著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。暴風(fēng)雨的陰云確實(shí)在聚集。本周，中國表示，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)正以2002年以來最緩慢的速度增長。美國長達(dá)10年的經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張是有記錄以來最持久的，因此，無論經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家怎么說，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退似乎早該到來了。由于利率已經(jīng)如此之低，對(duì)抗通脹的能力已經(jīng)耗盡。投資者擔(dān)心，世界正在變成日本，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，難以消除通縮，因此很容易倒退。

詞匯

Torpid/遲鈍的，遲緩的

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Yet a recession is so far a fear, not a reality. The world economy is still growing, albeit at a less healthy pace than in 2018. Its resilience rests on consumers, not least in America. Jobs are plentiful; wages are picking up; credit is still easy; and cheaper oil means there is more money to spend. What is more, there has been little sign of the heady exuberance that normally precedes a slump. The boards of public companies and the shareholders they ostensibly serve have played it safe. Businesses in aggregate are net savers. Investors have favoured firms that generate cash without needing to splurge on fixed assets. You see this in the vastly contrasting fortunes of America’s high-flying stockmarket, dominated by capital-light internet and services firms that throw off profits, and Europe’s, groaning under banks and under carmakers with factories that eat up capital. And within Europe’s stockmarkets a defensive stock, such as Nestlé, is trading at a towering premium to an industrial one such as Daimler.

然而，到目前為止，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退只是一種恐懼，而不是現(xiàn)實(shí)。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在增長，盡管增速不及2018年。它的恢復(fù)力取決于消費(fèi)者，尤其是在美國。工作是豐富的;工資正在上漲;信貸仍然很容易;更便宜的石油意味著有更多的錢可以花。更重要的是，幾乎沒有跡象表明經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之前通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)令人興奮的繁榮景象。上市公司的董事會(huì)及其表面上為之服務(wù)的股東一直行事謹(jǐn)慎?？偟膩碚f，企業(yè)是凈儲(chǔ)蓄者。投資者青睞那些無需在固定資產(chǎn)上大肆揮霍就能產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金的公司。你可以從美國股市的巨大反差中看到這一點(diǎn)。美國股市由資本較少的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和服務(wù)公司主導(dǎo)，這些公司利潤微薄，而歐洲的股市則在銀行和汽車制造商的控制下呻|吟，因?yàn)楣S消耗了大量資本。在歐洲的股票市場中，像雀巢這樣的防御性股票相對(duì)于戴姆勒這樣的工業(yè)股票有著極高的溢價(jià)。

詞匯

Heady/興奮的；任性的；性急的

Exuberance/豐富，茂盛；健康

Groan/呻|吟；哼哼

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If there has been no boom and the world economy has not yet turned to bust, why then are markets so anxious? The best answer is that firms and markets are struggling to get to grips with uncertainty. This, not tariffs, is the greatest harm from the trade war between America and China. The boundaries of the dispute have stretched from imports of some industrial metals to broader categories of finished goods. New fronts, including technology supply-chains and, this month, currencies, have opened up. As Japan and South Korea let their historical differences spill over into trade, it is unclear who or what might be drawn in next. Because big investments are hard to reverse, firms are disinclined to press ahead with them. A proxy measure from JPMorgan Chase suggests that global capital spending is now falling. Evidence that investment is being curtailed is reflected in surveys of plunging business sentiment, in stalling manufacturing output worldwide and in the stuttering performance of industry-led economies, not least Germany.

如果沒有繁榮，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)亦沒有走向蕭條，那么為什么市場如此焦慮呢?最好的答案是，公司和市場都在努力應(yīng)對(duì)不確定性。這不是關(guān)稅，而是（）貿(mào)|易|戰(zhàn)帶來的最大傷害。爭端的范圍已經(jīng)從一些工業(yè)金屬的進(jìn)口延伸到更廣泛的制成品類別。同時(shí)，包括技術(shù)供應(yīng)鏈和本月的貨幣問題貨幣在內(nèi)的新戰(zhàn)線已經(jīng)開放。隨著日本和韓國將其歷史分歧擴(kuò)大到貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域，目前尚不清楚誰或什么事件將會(huì)成為下一個(gè)問題點(diǎn)。由于巨額投資難以撤回，企業(yè)不愿繼續(xù)前進(jìn)。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的一項(xiàng)替代指標(biāo)顯示，全球資本支出目前正在下降。投資減少的證據(jù)反映在企業(yè)信心驟降的調(diào)查中，反映在全球制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出停滯中，反映在工業(yè)主導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)體(尤其是德國)表現(xiàn)不佳中。

詞匯

Curtail/簡略；縮減；剝奪

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Central banks are anxious, too, and easing policy as a result. In July the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in a decade as insurance against a downturn. It is likely to follow that with more cuts. Central banks in Brazil, India, New Zealand, Peru, the Philippines and Thailand have all reduced their benchmark interest rates since the Fed acted. The European Central Bank is likely to resume its bond-buying programme.

各國央行也感到焦慮，并因此放松了政策。今年7月，美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)10年來首次下調(diào)利率，以防范經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷。接下來很可能會(huì)有更多的削減。自美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取行動(dòng)以來，巴西、印度、新西蘭、秘魯、菲律賓和泰國的央行都下調(diào)了基準(zhǔn)利率。歐洲央行很可能恢復(fù)其債券購買計(jì)劃。

Despite these efforts, anxiety could turn to alarm, and sluggish growth descend into recession. Three warning signals are worth watching. First, the dollar, which is a barometer of risk appetite. The more investors reach for the safety of the greenback, the more they see danger ahead. Second come the trade negotiations between America and China. This week President Donald Trump unexpectedly delayed the tariffs announced on August 1st on some imports, raising hopes of a deal. That ought to be in his interests, as a strong economy is critical to his prospects of re-election next year. But he may nevertheless be misjudging the odds of a downturn. Mr Trump may also find that China decides to drag its feet, in the hope of scuppering his chances of a second term and of getting a better deal (or one likelier to stick) with his Democratic successor.

盡管做出了這些努力，但焦慮可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榭只?，緩慢的增長可能會(huì)陷入衰退。三個(gè)警告信號(hào)值得關(guān)注。首先是美元，它是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好的晴雨表。投資者越是尋求美元的安全，他們就越能預(yù)見到未來的危險(xiǎn)。其次是（）和（）之間的貿(mào)易談判。本周，美國總統(tǒng)唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)出人意料地推遲了8月1日宣布的對(duì)部分進(jìn)口商品的關(guān)稅，這增加了達(dá)成協(xié)議的希望。這應(yīng)該符合他的利益，因?yàn)閺?qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)他明年連任的前景至關(guān)重要。不過，他可能對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性判斷失誤。特朗普還可能發(fā)現(xiàn)，（）決定拖延時(shí)間，希望借此扼殺他連任的機(jī)會(huì)，并與他的民主黨繼任者達(dá)成更好的協(xié)議(或更有可能堅(jiān)持下去)。

詞匯

Barometer/氣壓計(jì)；晴雨表

Scupper/使泡湯；使成泡影

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The third thing to watch is corporate-bond yields in America. Financing costs remain remarkably low. But the spread—or extra yield—that investors require to hold risker corporate debt has begun to widen. If growing anxiety were to cause spreads to blow out, highly geared firms would find it costlier to roll over their debt. That could lead them to cut back on payrolls as well as investment in order to make their interest payments. The odds of a recession would then shorten.

第三個(gè)值得關(guān)注的是美國的公司債券收益率。融資成本仍然非常低。但投資者持有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的公司債券所需的息差(或額外收益率)已開始擴(kuò)大。如果日益增長的焦慮導(dǎo)致息差擴(kuò)大，高負(fù)債公司將發(fā)現(xiàn)延期償還債務(wù)的成本更高。這可能導(dǎo)致他們削減工資和投資，以支付利息。這樣，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性就會(huì)減小。

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When people look back, they will find plenty of inconsistencies in the configuration of today’s asset prices. The extreme anxiety in bond markets may come to look like a form of recklessness: how could markets square the rise in populism with a fear of deflation, for instance? It is a strange thought that a sudden easing of today’s anxiety might lead to violent price changes—a surge in bond yields; a sideways crash in which high-priced defensive stocks slump and beaten-up cyclicals rally. Eventually there might even be too much exuberance. But just now, who worries about that?

當(dāng)人們回頭看時(shí)，他們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)今天資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的配置有很多不一致之處。債券市場的極度焦慮可能看起來像是一種魯莽行為:例如，市場如何將民粹主義的抬頭與對(duì)通縮的擔(dān)憂結(jié)合起來?一個(gè)奇怪的想法是，今天的焦慮突然緩解可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致劇烈的價(jià)格變化——債券收益率飆升;高價(jià)防御性股票暴跌，被擊垮的周期性股票上漲由此導(dǎo)致一種橫向崩盤。最終甚至可能出現(xiàn)過度繁榮。但是現(xiàn)在，誰會(huì)擔(dān)心這個(gè)呢?

詞匯

Recklessness/魯莽；輕率；不顧一切，不顧后果

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