Closed by covid-19

迫于covid-19而關(guān)閉

Paying to stop the pandemic

花錢消災(zāi)

The struggle to save lives and the economy is likely to present agonising choices

拯救生命和經(jīng)濟(jì)的斗爭(zhēng)可能會(huì)帶來痛苦的選擇

詞匯

Agonising/煩惱的，苦悶的

Mar 19th 2020 |

PLANET EARTH is shutting down. In the struggle to get a grip on covid-19, one country after another is demanding that its citizens shun society. As that sends economies reeling, desperate governments are trying to tide over companies and consumers by handing out trillions of dollars in aid and loan guarantees. Nobody can be sure how well these rescues will work.

地球正在關(guān)閉。在努力控制covid-19的過程中，一個(gè)又一個(gè)國(guó)家要求其公民遠(yuǎn)離社會(huì)。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境，絕望的政府正試圖通過提供數(shù)萬億美元的援助和貸款擔(dān)保來幫助企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者渡過難關(guān)。沒有人能肯定這些救援措施會(huì)有多有效。

詞匯

Shun/避開，回避

Reeling/蹣跚的；卷起的

?（這段話我按照要求刪了，麻煩審核的大爺放我這篇文章通過，讀者們自己打開期刊看。）

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Barely 12 weeks after the first reports of people mysteriously falling ill in Wuhan, in central China, the world is beginning to grasp the pandemic’s true human and economic toll. As of March 18th SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind covid-19, had registered 134,000 infections outside China in 155 countries and territories. In just seven days that is an increase of almost 90,000 cases and 43 countries and territories. The real number of cases is thought to be at least an order of magnitude greater.

在中國(guó)中部城市武漢首次報(bào)告有人神秘患病僅12周后，世界開始了解這場(chǎng)流感的真實(shí)傷亡和經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。截至3月18日，SARS-CoV-2，即covt -19背后的病毒，已經(jīng)在155個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)登記了13.4萬例感染病例。在短短7天內(nèi)，就增加了近9萬例病例，涉及43個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)。實(shí)際病例數(shù)被認(rèn)為（比預(yù)期）至少要大一個(gè)數(shù)量級(jí)。

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Spooked, governments are rushing to impose controls that would have been unimaginable only a few weeks ago. Scores of countries, including many in Africa and Latin America, have barred travellers from places where the virus is rife. Times Square is deserted, the City of London is dark and in France, Italy and Spain cafés, bars and restaurants have bolted their doors. Everywhere empty stadiums echo to absent crowds.

各國(guó)政府驚慌失措，紛紛采取控制措施，這在幾周前還是不可想象的。許多國(guó)家，包括非洲和拉丁美洲的許多國(guó)家，已經(jīng)禁止旅行者進(jìn)入病毒流行的地方。時(shí)代廣場(chǎng)上空無一人，倫敦金融城一片漆黑，而在法國(guó)、意大利和西班牙，咖啡館、酒吧和餐館都已緊閉大門?？諢o一人的體育場(chǎng)到處回響著缺席的人群（這句話按照字面理解是這樣，但總覺得好奇怪）。

詞匯

Bar/禁止；阻攔

Rife/普遍的；流行的

Bolt/閂上，拴住

It has become clear that the economy is taking a much worse battering than analysts had expected. Data for January and February show that industrial output in China, which had been forecast to fall by 3% compared with a year earlier, was down by 13.5%. Retail sales were not 4% lower, but 20.5%. Fixed-asset investment, which measures the spending on such things as machinery and infrastructure, declined by 24%, six times more than predicted. That has sent economic forecasters the world over scurrying to revise down their predictions. Faced with the most brutal recession in living memory, governments are setting out rescue packages on a scale that exceeds even the financial crisis of 2007-09.

很明顯，經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受的打擊比分析師預(yù)期的要嚴(yán)重得多。1月和2月的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)的工業(yè)產(chǎn)出下降了13.5%，而此前的預(yù)測(cè)是同比下降3%。零售額下降了20.5%，而不是4%。用于衡量固定資產(chǎn)投資的機(jī)器和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等支出的下降了24%，是預(yù)期的六倍。這使得世界各地的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)者急忙下調(diào)他們的預(yù)測(cè)。面對(duì)人們記憶中最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，各國(guó)政府制定的救助計(jì)劃規(guī)模甚至超過了2007-09年的金融危機(jī)。

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This is the backdrop for fundamental choices about how to manage the disease. Using an epidemiological model, a group from Imperial College in London this week set out a framework to help policymakers think about what lies ahead. It is bleak.

這是關(guān)于如何控制這種疾病的基本選擇的背景。倫敦帝國(guó)理工學(xué)院(Imperial College)的一個(gè)小組利用流行病學(xué)模型，于本周制定了一個(gè)框架，以幫助政策制定者思考未來的發(fā)展。但前景是黯淡的。

詞匯

Backdrop/背景

One approach is mitigation, “flattening the curve” to make the pandemic less intense by, say, isolating cases and quarantining infected households. The other is to suppress it with a broader range of measures, including shutting in everybody, other than those who cannot work from home, and closing schools and universities. Mitigation curbs the pandemic, suppression aims to stop it in its tracks.

The modellers found that, were the virus left to spread, it would cause around 2.2m deaths in America and 500,000 in Britain by the end of summer. In advanced economies, they concluded, three months of curve-flattening, including two-week quarantines of infected households, would at best prevent only about half of these. Moreover, peak demand for intensive care would still be eight times the surge capacity of Britain’s National Health Service, leading to many more deaths that the model did not attempt to compute. If that pattern holds in other parts of Europe, even its best-resourced health systems, including Germany’s, would be overwhelmed.

建模者發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果病毒繼續(xù)傳播，到夏末，美國(guó)將有220萬人死亡，英國(guó)將有50萬人死亡。他們的結(jié)論是，在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，三個(gè)月的曲線變平，包括對(duì)受感染家庭進(jìn)行兩周的隔離，最多只能預(yù)防其中的一半。此外，重癥監(jiān)護(hù)需求的峰值仍將是英國(guó)國(guó)民醫(yī)療服務(wù)(nhs)激增能力的8倍，這將導(dǎo)致更多的死亡，而該模型并沒有試圖去計(jì)算這些死亡。如果這種模式在歐洲其他地區(qū)也適用，那么即使是歐洲資源最豐富的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)，包括德國(guó)，也會(huì)不堪重負(fù)。

詞匯

No wonder governments are opting for the more stringent controls needed to suppress the pandemic. Suppression has the advantage that it has worked in China. On March 18th Italy added 4,207 new cases whereas Wuhan counted none at all. China has recorded a total of just over 80,000 cases in a population of 1.4bn people. For comparison, the Imperial group estimated that the virus left to itself would infect more than 80% of the population in Britain and America.

難怪各國(guó)政府選擇采取更嚴(yán)格的控制措施來遏制流感爆發(fā)。壓制的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于它在中國(guó)奏效了。3月18日，意大利增加了4207個(gè)新病例，而武漢一個(gè)也沒有。中國(guó)有14億人口，總共有8萬多病例。作為比較，帝國(guó)集團(tuán)估計(jì)，這種病毒會(huì)感染英國(guó)和美國(guó)80%以上的人口。

詞匯

But that is why suppression has a sting in its tail. By keeping infection rates relatively low, it leaves many people susceptible to the virus. And since covid-19 is now so widespread, within countries and around the world, the Imperial model suggests that epidemics would return within a few weeks of the restrictions being lifted. To avoid this, countries must suppress the disease each time it resurfaces, spending at least half their time in lockdown. This on-off cycle must be repeated until either the disease has worked through the population or there is a vaccine which could be months away, if one works at all.

但這就是為什么要從根部抑制疾病。即便保持感染率相對(duì)較低，許多人依舊容易感染這種病毒。由于covid-19目前在各國(guó)和世界各地非常普遍，帝國(guó)模型表明，在限制解除后的幾周內(nèi)，流行病將卷土重來。為了避免這種情況，各國(guó)必須在疾病每次重新出現(xiàn)時(shí)加以控制，至少要把一半的時(shí)間花在防范上。這種時(shí)斷時(shí)續(xù)的循環(huán)必須不斷重復(fù)，直到這種疾病在人群中再也不起作用，或者有可能在幾個(gè)月后出現(xiàn)疫苗，如果有一種疫苗起作用的話。

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This is just a model, and models are just educated guesses based on the best evidence. Hence the importance of watching China to see if life there can return to normal without the disease breaking out again. The hope is that teams of epidemiologists can test on a massive scale so as to catch new cases early, trace their contacts and quarantine them without turning society upside down. Perhaps they will be helped by new drugs, such as a Japanese antiviral compound which China this week said was promising.

這只是一個(gè)模型，模型只是基于最佳證據(jù)的有根據(jù)的猜測(cè)。因此，關(guān)注中國(guó)的重要性在于，看看中國(guó)的生活是否能夠恢復(fù)正常，且不會(huì)再次爆發(fā)疾病。人們希望流行病學(xué)家小組能夠大規(guī)模地進(jìn)行檢測(cè)，以便及早發(fā)現(xiàn)新病例，追蹤接觸者并對(duì)他們進(jìn)行隔離，而不會(huì)使社會(huì)發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化?；蛟S他們將得到新藥的幫助，比如中國(guó)本周表示前景看好的一種日本抗病毒化合物。

詞匯

But this is just a hope, and hope is not a policy. The bitter truth is that mitigation costs too many lives and suppression may be economically unsustainable. After a few iterations governments might not have the capacity to carry businesses and consumers. Ordinary people might not tolerate the upheaval. The cost of repeated isolation, measured by mental well-being and the long-term health of the rest of the population, might not justify it.

但這只是一個(gè)希望，而希望不是政策。痛苦的事實(shí)是，緩解代價(jià)太大，鎮(zhèn)壓在經(jīng)濟(jì)上可能是不可持續(xù)的。經(jīng)過幾次反復(fù)，政府可能沒有能力承載企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者。普通人可能無法忍受這種劇變。以心理健康和其他人群的長(zhǎng)期健康來衡量，反復(fù)隔離的代價(jià)可能并不值得。

詞匯

In the real world there are trade-offs between the two strategies, though governments can make both more efficient. South Korea, China and Italy have shown that this starts with mass-testing. The more clearly you can identify who has the disease, the less you must depend upon indiscriminate restrictions. Tests for antibodies to the virus, picking up who has been infected and recovered, are needed to supplement today’s which are only valid just before and during the illness. That will let immune people go about their business in the knowledge that they cannot be a source of further infections.

在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中，這兩種策略之間存在權(quán)衡，盡管政府可以讓兩者都更有效率。韓國(guó)、中國(guó)和意大利已經(jīng)表明，這要從大規(guī)模試驗(yàn)開始。你越能清楚地識(shí)別出誰患有這種疾病，你就越能不依賴于不分青紅皂白的限制。對(duì)病毒抗體的檢測(cè)，挑選出已經(jīng)被感染和康復(fù)的人，這些將用于補(bǔ)充當(dāng)日的檢測(cè)，這些檢測(cè)只在疾病之前和期間有效。這將讓免疫的人知道他們不能成為進(jìn)一步感染的來源，從而繼續(xù)他們的工作。

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A second line of attack is to use technology to administer quarantines and social distancing. China is using apps to certify who is clear of the disease and who is not. Both it and South Korea are using big data and social media to trace infections, alert people to hotspots and round up contacts. South Korea changed the law to allow the state to gain access to medical records and share them without a warrant. In normal times many democracies might find that too intrusive. Times are not normal.

Last, governments should invest in health care, even if their efforts take months to bear fruit and may never be needed. They should increase the surge capacity of intensive care. Countries like Britain and America are desperately short of beds, specialists and ventilators. They should define the best treatment protocols, develop vaccines and test new therapeutic drugs. All this would make mitigation less lethal and suppression cheaper.

最后，政府應(yīng)該投資于醫(yī)療保健，即使他們的努力需要幾個(gè)月才會(huì)有成果，而且可能永遠(yuǎn)都不需要。他們應(yīng)該增加重癥監(jiān)護(hù)的應(yīng)對(duì)能力。像英國(guó)和美國(guó)這樣的國(guó)家極度缺乏床位、專家和呼吸機(jī)。他們應(yīng)該制定最好的治療方案，開發(fā)疫苗和測(cè)試新的治療藥物。所有這些都將使緩解措施不那么致命，抑制措施更便宜。

詞匯

Be under no illusions. Such measures might still not prevent the pandemic from extracting a heavy toll. Today governments seem to be committed to suppression, whatever the cost. But if the disease is not conquered quickly, they will edge towards mitigation, even if that will result in many more deaths. Understandably, just now that is not a trade-off any government is willing to contemplate. They may soon have no choice.

但不要抱有幻想。這些措施可能仍然無法阻止流感大流行造成重大損失。今天，政府似乎決心不惜一切代價(jià)進(jìn)行鎮(zhèn)壓。但是如果這種疾病不能很快被征服，他們將傾向于緩解，即使這將導(dǎo)致更多的死亡?？梢岳斫獾氖牵壳叭魏握疾辉敢饪紤]這種“交易”。但他們可能很快就會(huì)別無選擇。