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The battle for search

搜索之戰(zhàn)

What do ai chatbots mean for the lucrative business of searching the internet?

人工智能聊天機(jī)器人對(duì)利潤(rùn)豐厚的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)搜索業(yè)務(wù)意味著什么？

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FOR MORE than 25 years, search engines have been the internet’s front door. AltaVista, the first site to allow searches of the full text of the web, was swiftly dethroned by Google, which has dominated the field in most of the world ever since. Google’s search engine, still the heart of its business, has made its parent, Alphabet, one of the world’s most valuable companies, with revenues of $283bn in 2022 and a market capitalisation of $1.3trn. Google is not merely a household name; it is a verb.

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25年多來(lái)，搜索引擎一直是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的門(mén)戶(hù)。AltaVista是第一個(gè)可以搜索網(wǎng)站全部文本的搜索引擎，但很快就被谷歌趕下了臺(tái)，自那以后，谷歌一直統(tǒng)治著該領(lǐng)域。谷歌的搜索引擎仍是公司業(yè)務(wù)的核心，使其母公司Alphabet成為世界上最有價(jià)值的公司之一。Alphabet 2022年收入為2830億美元，市值1.3萬(wàn)億美元。Google不僅僅是一個(gè)家喻戶(hù)曉的品牌；它還是一個(gè)動(dòng)詞。

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But nothing lasts for ever, particularly in technology. Just ask IBM, which once ruled business computing, or Nokia, once the leader in mobile phones. Both were dethroned because they fumbled big technological transitions. Now tech firms are salivating over an innovation that might herald a similar shift—and a similar opportunity. Chatbots powered by artificial intelligence (AI) let users gather information via typed conversations. Leading the field is ChatGPT, made by OpenAI, a startup. By the end of January, two months after its launch, ChatGPT was being used by more than 100m people, making it the “fastest-growing consumer application in history”, according to UBS, a bank.

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但沒(méi)有什么是永恒的，尤其是在科技領(lǐng)域。問(wèn)問(wèn)曾經(jīng)統(tǒng)治商業(yè)計(jì)算機(jī)的IBM，或者曾經(jīng)引領(lǐng)移動(dòng)電話(huà)的諾基亞就知道了。他們笨拙地處理了重大的技術(shù)變革，因而被趕下了商業(yè)舞臺(tái)。如今，科技公司正垂涎一項(xiàng)可能預(yù)示著類(lèi)似變革和機(jī)遇的創(chuàng)新。由人工智能(AI)驅(qū)動(dòng)的聊天機(jī)器人讓用戶(hù)通過(guò)打字對(duì)話(huà)從而獲取信息。引領(lǐng)該領(lǐng)域的是由初創(chuàng)公司OpenAI開(kāi)發(fā)的ChatGPT。瑞銀集團(tuán)(UBS)稱(chēng)，截至1月底也就是ChatGPT上線(xiàn)兩個(gè)月后，已有超過(guò)1億人使用，使其成為“歷史上增長(zhǎng)最快的消費(fèi)者應(yīng)用程序”。

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AI is already used behind the scenes in many products, but ChatGPT has put it centre stage, by letting people chat with an AI directly. ChatGPT can write essays in various styles, explain complex concepts, summarise text and answer trivia questions. It can even (narrowly) pass legal and medical exams. And it can synthesise knowledge from the web: for example, listing holiday spots that match certain criteria, or suggesting menus or itineraries. If asked, it can explain its reasoning and provide detail. Many things that people use search engines for today, in short, can be done better with chatbots.

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AI已經(jīng)在許多產(chǎn)品的幕后發(fā)揮作用，但ChatGPT通過(guò)讓人們直接與AI聊天，將AI放在了重要的位置。ChatGPT可以寫(xiě)各種風(fēng)格的文章，解釋復(fù)雜的概念，總結(jié)文本和回答瑣碎的問(wèn)題。它甚至可以(勉強(qiáng))通過(guò)法律和醫(yī)學(xué)考試。它可以綜合應(yīng)用來(lái)自網(wǎng)絡(luò)的知識(shí):例如，列出符合特定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的度假地點(diǎn)，或者推薦菜單或行程。如果被問(wèn)到其原理，它可以加以解釋并提供細(xì)節(jié)。簡(jiǎn)而言之，今天人們使用搜索引擎的做的許多事情都可以通過(guò)聊天機(jī)器人達(dá)到更好的效果。

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Hence the flurry of announcements, as rival firms try to seize the initiative. On February 7th Microsoft, which has invested more than $11bn in OpenAI, revealed a new version of Bing, its search engine, which incorporates ChatGPT. Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s boss, sees this as his chance to challenge Google. For its part, Google has announced Bard, its own chatbot, as a “companion” to its search engine. It has also taken a $300m stake in Anthropic, a startup founded by ex-OpenAI employees, which has built a chatbot called Claude. The share price of Baidu, known as the Google of China, jumped when it said it would release its chatbot, called Ernie, in March.

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因此，當(dāng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手試圖抓住主動(dòng)權(quán)時(shí)，一系列的公告接踵而至。2月7日，在OpenAI上投資超過(guò)110億美元的微軟發(fā)布了其搜索引擎Bing的新版本，該版本整合了ChatGPT。微軟老板Satya Nadella認(rèn)為這是他挑戰(zhàn)谷歌的機(jī)會(huì)。就谷歌而言，它已經(jīng)宣布自己的聊天機(jī)器人Bard是其搜索引擎的“伴侶”。它還收購(gòu)了Anthropic的3億美元股份，Anthropic是一家由前OpenAI員工創(chuàng)辦的初創(chuàng)公司，該公司開(kāi)發(fā)了一款名為Claude的聊天機(jī)器人。被稱(chēng)為中國(guó)谷歌的百度宣布將在3月份發(fā)布名為Ernie的聊天機(jī)器人，其股價(jià)大幅上漲。

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But can chatbots be trusted, and what do they mean for search and its lucrative advertising business? Do they herald a Schumpeterian moment in which AI topples incumbent firms and elevates upstarts? The answers depend on three things: moral choices, monetisation and monopoly economics.

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但聊天機(jī)器人可信嗎？它們對(duì)搜索和利潤(rùn)豐厚的廣告業(yè)務(wù)意味著什么？它們是否預(yù)示著一個(gè)熊彼特時(shí)刻（指熊彼特的“五種創(chuàng)新”理念），即人工智能是否會(huì)顛覆現(xiàn)有企業(yè)，涌現(xiàn)新貴企業(yè)？問(wèn)題的答案取決于三件事:道德選擇、貨幣化和壟斷經(jīng)濟(jì)。

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ChatGPT often gets things wrong. It has been likened to a mansplainer: supremely confident in its answers, regardless of their accuracy. Unlike search engines, which mostly direct people to other pages and make no claims for their veracity, chatbots present their answers as gospel truth. Chatbots must also grapple with bias, prejudice and misinformation as they scan the internet. There are sure to be controversies as they produce incorrect or offensive replies. (Google is thought to have held back the release of its chatbot over such concerns, but Microsoft has now forced its hand.) ChatGPT already gives answers that Ron DeSantis, Florida’s governor, would consider unacceptably woke.

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ChatGPT經(jīng)常出錯(cuò)。它被比作一位居高臨下的說(shuō)教者:對(duì)自己的答案極度自信，不管其準(zhǔn)確性如何。與搜索引擎不同，搜索引擎大多將人們導(dǎo)向其他頁(yè)面，不聲稱(chēng)其真實(shí)性。聊天機(jī)器人卻將自己的答案視為真理。聊天機(jī)器人在瀏覽互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)，還必須努力應(yīng)對(duì)偏見(jiàn)、成見(jiàn)和誤傳。因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)產(chǎn)生不正確或者冒犯性的回答，這肯定會(huì)引起爭(zhēng)議。(人們認(rèn)為谷歌出于這種擔(dān)憂(yōu)推遲了聊天機(jī)器人的發(fā)布，但微軟逼迫谷歌不得不采取行動(dòng)。)ChatGPT已經(jīng)給出了佛羅里達(dá)州州長(zhǎng)羅恩·德桑蒂斯認(rèn)為不可接受的答案。

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Chatbots must also tread carefully around some tricky topics. Ask ChatGPT for medical advice, and it prefaces its reply with a disclaimer that it “cannot diagnose specific medical conditions”; it also refuses to give advice on, say, how to build a bomb. But its guardrails have proved easy to circumvent (for example, by asking for a story about a bombmaker, with plenty of technical detail). As tech firms decide which topics are too sensitive, they will have to choose where to draw the line. All this will raise questions about censorship, objectivity and the nature of truth.

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聊天機(jī)器人還必須小心處理一些棘手的話(huà)題。如果向ChatGPT尋求醫(yī)療建議，它在回復(fù)前就給出免責(zé)聲明“無(wú)法診斷具體的醫(yī)療狀況”；比如說(shuō)，向它詢(xún)問(wèn)如何制造炸彈，它也拒絕給出建議。但事實(shí)證明，ChatGPT的防范措施很容易繞過(guò)(例如，通過(guò)詢(xún)問(wèn)一個(gè)關(guān)于炸彈制造者的故事，其中就包含大量的技術(shù)細(xì)節(jié))。隨著科技公司決定哪些話(huà)題過(guò)于敏感，他們也將不得不做出區(qū)分。所有這些都會(huì)引發(fā)對(duì)審查制度、客觀(guān)性和真理本質(zhì)的質(zhì)疑。

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Can tech firms make money from this? OpenAI is launching a premium version of ChatGPT, which costs $20 a month for speedy access even at peak times. Google and Microsoft, which already sell ads on their search engines, will show ads alongside chatbot responses—ask for travel advice, say, and related ads will pop up. But that business model may not be sustainable. Running a chatbot requires more processing power than serving up search results, and therefore costs more, reducing margins.

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科技公司能從中賺錢(qián)嗎？OpenAI正在推出ChatGPT的高級(jí)版本，每月20美元，即使在高峰期也能快速訪(fǎng)問(wèn)。谷歌和微軟已經(jīng)在他們的搜索引擎上投放廣告，還將會(huì)在聊天機(jī)器人的回復(fù)旁邊顯示廣告——比如，詢(xún)問(wèn)旅游建議，相關(guān)的廣告就會(huì)彈出。但這種商業(yè)模式不一定可持續(xù)。運(yùn)行聊天機(jī)器人比提供搜索結(jié)果需要更多的算力，因此成本更高，利潤(rùn)更低。

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Other models will surely emerge: charging advertisers more for the ability to influence the answers that chatbots provide, perhaps, or to have links to their websites embedded in responses. Ask ChatGPT to recommend a car, and it will reply that there are lots of good brands, and it depends on your needs. Future chatbots may be more willing to make a recommendation. But will people use them if their objectivity has been compromised by advertisers? Will they be able to tell? Behold, another can of worms.

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其他商業(yè)模式肯定還會(huì)出現(xiàn)：可以對(duì)廣告商收取更多的費(fèi)用，如果他們想對(duì)聊天機(jī)器人的答案有著更大的影響，或者在回復(fù)中嵌入他們網(wǎng)站的鏈接。請(qǐng)ChatGPT推薦一款車(chē)，回復(fù)的好品牌有很多，但最終還是取決于你的需求。未來(lái)的聊天機(jī)器人可能更愿意承擔(dān)推薦的職責(zé)。但是如果他們的客觀(guān)性被廣告商破壞了，人們會(huì)使用他們嗎？用戶(hù)能看出來(lái)嗎？看，又是一個(gè)棘手的問(wèn)題。

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Then there is a question of competition. It is good news that Google is being kept on its toes by upstarts like OpenAI. But it is unclear whether chatbots are a competitor to search engines, or a complement. Deploying chatbots initially as add-ons to search, or as stand-alone conversation partners, makes sense given their occasional inaccuracies. But as their capabilities improve, chatbots could become an interface to all kinds of services, such as making hotel or restaurant reservations, particularly if offered as voice assistants, like Alexa or Siri. If chatbots’ main value is as a layer on top of other digital services, though, that will favour incumbents which provide such services already.

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然后就是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)問(wèn)題。谷歌被OpenAI這樣的新貴保持警惕是個(gè)好消息。但尚不清楚聊天機(jī)器人是搜索引擎的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，還是一種補(bǔ)充?？紤]到聊天機(jī)器人的回復(fù)偶爾并不準(zhǔn)確，最初將其部署為搜索插件或獨(dú)立的對(duì)話(huà)伙伴是有意義的。但隨著功能不斷完善，聊天機(jī)器人可以成為各種服務(wù)的接口，例如預(yù)訂酒店或餐廳，特別是作為語(yǔ)音助手提供服務(wù)，像Alexa或Siri。然而，如果聊天機(jī)器人的主要價(jià)值是基于其他數(shù)字服務(wù)，那將有利于已經(jīng)有這種服務(wù)的公司。

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Googling the future

搜索未來(lái)

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Yet the fact that today’s upstarts, such as Anthropic and OpenAI, are attracting so much attention (and investment) from Google and Microsoft suggests that smaller firms have a shot at competing in this new field. They will come under great pressure to sell. But what if an upstart chatbot firm develops superior technology and a new business model, and emerges as a new giant? That, after all, is what Google once did. Chatbots raise hard questions, but they also offer an opportunity to make online information more useful and easier to access. As in the 1990s, when search engines first appeared, a hugely valuable prize—to become the front door to the internet—may once again be up for grabs.

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然而，今天的新貴，如Anthropic和OpenAI，吸引了谷歌和微軟如此多的關(guān)注(和投資),這一事實(shí)表明，較小的公司有機(jī)會(huì)在這個(gè)新領(lǐng)域參與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。他們將面臨巨大的銷(xiāo)售壓力。但是，如果一個(gè)新崛起的聊天機(jī)器人公司開(kāi)發(fā)了先進(jìn)的技術(shù)和新的商業(yè)模式，并成為一個(gè)新的巨頭，會(huì)怎么樣呢？畢竟，這是谷歌曾經(jīng)做過(guò)的事情。聊天機(jī)器人提出了一些難題，但它們也提供了一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，讓在線(xiàn)信息變得更有用、更容易獲取。正如在20世紀(jì)90年代，當(dāng)搜索引擎首次出現(xiàn)時(shí)，一個(gè)巨大的價(jià)值獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)——成為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)門(mén)戶(hù)的機(jī)會(huì)可能會(huì)再次出現(xiàn)。