現(xiàn)在大眾可以接觸到的很多人工智能的最新進展
Recent advances in artificial intelligence now available to the masses

讓許多美國人著迷和陶醉。
have both fascinated and enthralled many Americans.

但是，在所有對人工智能的贊嘆聲中，
But amid all the wows over A.I.,

有一些人在說 大家等等
there are some saying wait

包括2位前硅谷內(nèi)部人士，
including a pair of former Silicon Valley insiders

他們現(xiàn)在警告科技公司，
who are now warning tech companies

一旦把人工智能的精靈放出來 就很難再把它們收回來了
there may be no returning the A.I. genie to the bottle.

在我們系列報道《人工智能革命》 采訪了他們
I sat down with them for our series A.I. Revolution.

ChatGPT(人工智能聊天機器人程序)發(fā)布才4個月
It's hard to believe it's only been four months

人工智能大比拼就被推向高潮
since ChatGPT launched kicking the A.I. arms race into high gear.

這就像打響了發(fā)令槍，現(xiàn)在所有其他公司都說
That was like firing the starting gun that now all the other companies said

好吧，如果我們不跟著一起 我們就會輸給微軟。
well, if we don't also deploy, we're gonna lose the race to Microsoft.

特里斯坦-哈里斯是谷歌的前設(shè)計倫理學(xué)家。
Tristan Harris is Google’s former design ethicist.

他與阿扎-拉斯金共同創(chuàng)立了人道技術(shù)中心，
He co-founded the Center for Humane Technology with Aza Raskin

兩人都在人工智能中看到了可喜的可能性。
both see in A.I. welcome possibilities.

我們想要的是 人工智能 豐富我們生活
What we want is A.I. that enriches our lives

幫助我們治愈癌癥，
that is helping us cure cancer

幫助我們找到氣候解決方案。
that is helping us find climate solutions.

但是，新的人工智能軍備競賽會帶我們到那里嗎？
But will the new A.I. arms race take us there

還是它會讓我們走上一條更黑暗的道路呢？
or down a darker path?

大家爭先恐恐去部署人工智能變成了不計后果地盲目部署
The race to deploy becomes the race to recklessness

因為這么短的時間要把它部署好 就不可能面面俱到
because they can't deploy it that quickly and also get it right.

在2020年Netflix的紀(jì)錄片《社交困境》中，
In the 2020 Netflix doc The Social Dilemma

他們對社交媒體的危險性敲響了警鐘。
they sounded the alarm on the dangers of social media.

我們造了這些東西，
We built these things

我們有責(zé)任去改變它。
and we have a responsibility to change it.

但今晚他們對忽視人工智能的危險提出了更可怕的警告。
But tonight they have an even more dire warning about ignoring the perils of artificial intelligence.

這將是人類所犯的所有錯誤中最糟糕的一個。
It would be the worst of all human mistakes to have ever been made.

而且我們真的不知道它的工作機制
And we literally don't know how it works.

我們不知道它們到底最終會干什么
We don't know all the things that will do.

在我們不能確保它是否一定安全之前
And we're putting it out there

我們就把它放出去了
before we actually know whether it's safe.

拉斯金指出，最近對人工智能研究人員的一項調(diào)查顯示，
Raskin points to a recent survey of A.I. researchers

近一半的研究者表示，
where nearly half said they believe

他們認(rèn)為人工智能至少有10%的可能性最終會導(dǎo)致極其糟糕的結(jié)果，
there's at least a 10% chance A.I. could eventually result in an extremely bad outcome

如人類滅絕。
like human extinction.

你怎么看這個問題？
What do you come down on that？

我不知道。
I don't know.

這個點在于
The point is

說真的，你就是不知道。
Seriously you don't know.

是的 我不知道
Yeah,

我的意思就是
well, here's the point like it's an,

想象一下，你即將登上一架飛機，
imagine you're about to get on an airplane

造這架飛機的工程師們，他們有一半都說，
and 50% of the engineers that built airplane say

飛機可能會墜毀的機率在10% 機上所有人都會死
there's a 10% chance that the airplane might crash and kill everyone.

不讓讓我上飛機啊
Leave me at the gate.

對，就是這個意思
Right, exactly.

人工智能類的工具已經(jīng)可以模仿聲音，
A.I. tools can already mimic voices,

讓人通過考試，創(chuàng)造藝術(shù)和診斷疾病。
ace exams, create art and diagnose diseases.

它們每天都在變得更聰明。
And they're getting smarter every day.

在兩年后 即總統(tǒng)選舉時，
In two years by the time of the election,

人類將無法區(qū)分什么是真實的和什么是假的。
human beings will not be able to tell the difference between what is real and what is fake.

誰在建造護欄呢？
Who's building the guardrails here？

沒有人在建造護欄。
No one is building the guardrails.

它的發(fā)展速度
And this has moved so much faster

完全超出了我們政府所能理解或意識到的
than our government has been able to understand or appreciate.

大家要注意 那些大的人工智能實驗室的首席執(zhí)行官們
It's important to note the CEOs of the major A.I. labs

他們都說我們確實需要對人工智能進行好好監(jiān)管
And they've all said we do need to regulate A.I..

總是有這些聲音說
There's always that notion that

也許這些公司可以自我監(jiān)督。
well, maybe these companies can police themselves.

有用嗎?
Does that work?

沒用
No, no.

自我監(jiān)督行不通
Self-policing doesn't work.

是的 這真的沒用
No, it cannot work.

但是 最終 不是還是會有人來控制它們嗎？
But doesn't a person ultimately control it？

我能不能就直接把插頭拔掉呢？
Can I simply just pull the plug？

不幸的是，這項技術(shù)正被分散到越來越多的人手中，
Unfortunately this is being decentralized into more and more hands

所以這個技術(shù)并不只是一家公司在運行，
so that technology isn't just run inside of one company

你不可以說 我想拔掉谷歌的插頭。
that you can just say I want to pull the plug on Google.

另外，想想看，
Also think about how hard it would be

要拔掉谷歌的插頭
to pull the plug on Google

或拔掉微軟的插頭會有多難。
or pull the plug on Microsoft.

如果你可以規(guī)誡一位硅谷公司的首席執(zhí)行官 你想說些什么
So what would you tell a CEO of a Silicon Valley company right now

即 雖然知道你不想成為最后一個，但你可以暫停一下嗎？
and now you don't wanna be last but can you take a pause？

我的意思是 這么做可行嗎？
I mean is that realistic？

你說得對
You know it, you are right.

只要求一家公司這么做 是不可行的
It's not realistic to ask one company.

我們需要做的是讓這些公司聚到一起
What we need to do is get those companies,

進行有建設(shè)性的積極的交流
have to come together in a constructive positive dialogue about,

就像討論類似禁止核試驗條約一樣
think of it like you know the nuclear test ban treaty, right.

我們把所有國家放在一起，
We kinda all the nations together

說我們能不能同意 我們不想在地面上部署核彈。
saying can we agree we don't want to deploy nukes above ground.

他們說 如果控制不好 危害會特別大
The stakes they say are impossibly high.

但是，當(dāng)我們開啟一場軍備競賽
But when we're in an arms race

用最快地速度將人工智能部署到地球上的每一個人身上，
to deploy A.I. to every human being on the planet as fast as possible

測試又不到位
with as little testing as possible

但結(jié)果一定會很糟糕
that's not an equation that's going to end well.

我們聯(lián)系了一些處于人工智能發(fā)展前沿的公司，
We reached out to some of the companies in the forefront of A.I. development

微軟公司告訴我們?nèi)斯ぶ悄芸梢詭椭鉀Q人類的一些最大問題。
Microsoft told us A.I. has the potential to help solve some of humanity's biggest problems.

但他們認(rèn)為 一定要讓人們用到人工智能 但一定要做好管控
And they believe it's important to make A.I. tools available with guardrails.

谷歌說他們致力于負(fù)責(zé)任的開發(fā)，
Google said they are committed to responsible development

包括嚴(yán)格的測試和道德審查。
including rigorous testing and ethics reviews.