American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2023年第1期

Vol. 15 No. 1 January 2023

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——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

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1.Anchored Inflation Expectations

錨定通貨膨脹預(yù)期

Carlos Carvalho

Stefano Eusepi

Emanuel Moench

Bruce Preston

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.

我們開發(fā)了一個通脹預(yù)期的低頻波動理論，并使用它來解釋美國和其他國家在戰(zhàn)后時期的通脹和通脹預(yù)期的聯(lián)合動態(tài)。在我們的理論中，長期通脹預(yù)期是內(nèi)生性的。它們是由短期意外通脹驅(qū)動的，在某種程度上取決于最近的預(yù)測表現(xiàn)和貨幣政策。這將我們的理論與常見的暴脹低頻特性的解釋區(qū)分開來。該模型僅使用來自專業(yè)調(diào)查的通脹和短期預(yù)測進行估計，準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測了對長期通脹預(yù)期的觀察指標(biāo)，并識別了無錨預(yù)期的事件。

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2.Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth

企業(yè)進入、退出和總量增長

Jose Asturias

Sewon Hur

Timothy J. Kehoe

Kim J. Ruhl

Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. To analyze this relationship, we develop a model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992). When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption into a calibrated model, we find that the entry and exit terms in the FHK decomposition become more important as GDP grows rapidly, just as they do in the data from Chile and Korea.

將Foster、Haltiwanger和Krizan(2001)分解方法應(yīng)用于智利和韓國的工廠級制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在GDP快速增長期間，工廠的進入和退出在總生產(chǎn)率增長中所占的比例更大。為了分析這一關(guān)系，我們在Hopenhayn(1992)的基礎(chǔ)上建立了一個企業(yè)進入和退出模型。當(dāng)我們將降低進入成本或降低技術(shù)采用壁壘的改革引入校準(zhǔn)模型時，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著GDP的快速增長，F(xiàn)HK分解中的進入和退出條款變得更加重要，就像智利和韓國的數(shù)據(jù)一樣。

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3.Learning about Debt Crises

Radoslaw Paluszynski

The European debt crisis presents a challenge to our understanding of the relationship between government bond yields and economic fundamentals. I argue that information frictions are an important missing element and support that claim with evidence on the evolution of GDP forecast errors after 2008. I build a quantitative model of sovereign default where output features rare disasters and agents learn about their realizations. Debt crises coincide with economic depressions and develop gradually while markets update their expectations about future income. Calibrated to the Portuguese economy, the model replicates the comovement of bond spreads and output before and after 2008.

歐洲債務(wù)危機對我們理解政府債券收益率與經(jīng)濟基本面之間的關(guān)系提出了挑戰(zhàn)。我認(rèn)為，信息摩擦是一個重要的缺失因素，并通過2008年之后GDP預(yù)測誤差的演變提供證據(jù)來支持這一說法。我建立了一個主權(quán)違約的定量模型，其中輸出具有罕見災(zāi)難的特征，代理人了解它們的實現(xiàn)情況。債務(wù)危機與經(jīng)濟蕭條同時發(fā)生，并在市場更新其對未來收入預(yù)期的同時逐漸發(fā)展。該模型根據(jù)葡萄牙經(jīng)濟進行校準(zhǔn)，復(fù)制了2008年前后債券利差和產(chǎn)出的聯(lián)動關(guān)系。

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4.Uncovering the Effects of the Zero Lower Bound with an Endogenous Financial Wedge

Dan Cao

Wenlan Luo

Guangyu Nie

We study the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the severity of financial crises using an incomplete markets New Keynesian model with two occasionally binding constraints: a ZLB on the nominal interest rate and a borrowing constraint tied to an asset price. The model's financial wedge corresponds to an endogenous multiplier on the borrowing constraint. Binding ZLB exacerbates financial crises through its interaction with the asset fire sale vicious cycle, driving up the financial wedge. Our results offer a novel reinterpretation of the negligible effect of the ZLB in representative agent New Keynesian models with exogenous wedges.

我們使用一個不完全市場新凱恩斯主義模型研究了零利率下限(ZLB)對金融危機嚴(yán)重性的影響，該模型有兩個偶爾的約束:名義利率的ZLB和與資產(chǎn)價格掛鉤的借款約束。模型中的金融楔子對應(yīng)于借款約束的內(nèi)生乘數(shù)。綁定ZLB通過與資產(chǎn)賤賣惡性循環(huán)的互動加劇了金融危機，推高了金融楔子。我們的結(jié)果提供了一個新的解釋，在具有外生楔形的代表性代理人新凱恩斯模型中，ZLB的微不足道的影響。

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5.Robust Predictions for DSGE Models with Incomplete Information

不完全信息下DSGE模型的穩(wěn)健預(yù)測

Ryan Chahrour

Robert Ulbricht

We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete information that are robust across information structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information economy with time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions that ensure the wedges are rationalizable by some information structure. Using our approach, we quantify the potential importance of information as a source of business cycle fluctuations in an otherwise frictionless model. Our approach uncovers a central role for firm-specific demand shocks in supporting aggregate confidence fluctuations. Only if firms face unobserved local demand shocks can confidence fluctuations account for a significant portion of the US business cycle.

我們?yōu)椴煌耆畔⒌腄SGE模型提供了跨信息結(jié)構(gòu)的穩(wěn)健預(yù)測。我們的方法將一個不完全信息模型映射到一個具有時變期望楔形的完全信息經(jīng)濟，并提供了條件，以確保楔形在某些信息結(jié)構(gòu)下是合理的。使用我們的方法，我們在一個無摩擦的模型中量化信息作為商業(yè)周期波動來源的潛在重要性。我們的方法揭示了企業(yè)特定需求沖擊在支持總體信心波動方面的核心作用。只有當(dāng)企業(yè)面臨不可觀察的本地需求沖擊時，信心波動才能占美國商業(yè)周期的很大一部分。

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6.The Government Spending Multiplier in a Multisector Economy

政府多部門經(jīng)濟中的支出乘數(shù)

Hafedh Bouakez

Omar Rachedi

Emiliano Santoro

We study the effects of aggregate government spending shocks in a production network economy where sectors differ in their price rigidity, factor intensities, use of intermediate inputs, and contribution to final demand. The model implies an aggregate value-added multiplier that is 75 percent (and $0.32) larger than that obtained in the average one-sector economy. This amplification is mainly driven by input-output linkages and—to a lesser extent—sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity. Aggregate government spending shocks also lead to heterogeneous responses of sectoral value added, which are larger among upstream industries. We present novel empirical evidence supporting this prediction.

我們研究了在生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)濟中，政府總支出沖擊的影響，在這種經(jīng)濟中，各部門的價格剛性、要素強度、中間投入的使用以及對最終需求的貢獻各不相同。該模型表明，總增值乘數(shù)比平均單一部門經(jīng)濟的乘數(shù)大75%(0.32美元)。這種放大主要是由投入產(chǎn)出聯(lián)系以及價格剛性中的部門異質(zhì)性(在較小程度上)驅(qū)動的。政府總支出沖擊也導(dǎo)致行業(yè)增加值的異質(zhì)性反應(yīng)，上游行業(yè)增加值反應(yīng)更大。我們提出了新的經(jīng)驗證據(jù)來支持這一預(yù)測。

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7.Skilled Labor Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences

熟練勞動生產(chǎn)率與跨國收入差異

Lutz?Hendricks?and?Todd?Schoellman

This paper revisits the question of how allowing for imperfect substitution among workers with different skill levels affects the results of development accounting. We consider a range of models that nest the approaches in the literature and calibrate them to a common set of moments, including particularly evidence on the wage gains of migrants. We obtain two main results. First, human capital accounts for between one-half and three-fourths of cross-country income gaps. Second, human capital accounts for only modest variation in the relative productivity of skilled versus unskilled labor.

本文回顧了允許不同技能水平的工人之間的不完全替代如何影響發(fā)展會計結(jié)果的問題。我們考慮了一系列模型，這些模型嵌入了文獻中的方法，并將它們校準(zhǔn)到一組常見的時刻，特別是移民工資增長的證據(jù)。我們得到了兩個主要結(jié)果。首先，人力資本在跨國收入差距中所占比例在1 / 2到3 / 4之間。第二，人力資本對高技能勞動力和非高技能勞動力的相對生產(chǎn)率的影響很小。

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8.Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries

女性、財富效應(yīng)和緩慢的復(fù)蘇

Masao?Fukui,?Emi?Nakamura?and?Jón?Steinsson

Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slow-down comes entirely from female employment, as women's employment rates converged toward men's during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? We estimate the extent to which women "crowd out" men in the labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through the lens of a general equilibrium model with home production, we show this statistic implies that 60–75 percent of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female convergence.

近幾十年來，商業(yè)周期復(fù)蘇放緩。這種放緩?fù)耆珌碜耘跃蜆I(yè)，因為在過去半個世紀(jì)里，女性就業(yè)率向男性靠攏。但是，女性就業(yè)率增長的放緩會轉(zhuǎn)化為整體就業(yè)率的放緩嗎?我們估計了美國各州勞動力市場上女性“擠出”男性的程度，發(fā)現(xiàn)這種程度很小。通過家庭生產(chǎn)的一般均衡模型，我們表明，這一統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)表明，在最近的商業(yè)周期復(fù)蘇中，60% - 75%的放緩可以由女性趨同來解釋。

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9.Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications

消費異質(zhì)性:微觀驅(qū)動因素與宏觀影響

Edmund?Crawley?and?Andreas?Kuchler

We document heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across household characteristics relevant to understanding heterogeneous agent models and monetary policy transmission. We find a strong negative relationship between household liquid wealth and MPC. We show that household liquid wealth predicts MPC closely for every other household characteristic we look at. We use a new empirical method that overcomes sources of bias found in the existing literature, along with administrative data from Denmark that allow us to identify heterogeneous behavior. We use our results to analyze monetary policy transmission mechanisms in both Denmark and the United States.

我們記錄了不同家庭特征的邊際消費傾向(MPC)的異質(zhì)性，這與理解異質(zhì)性代理模型和貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)有關(guān)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，家庭流動財富與貨幣政策偏好之間存在顯著的負向關(guān)系。我們表明，對于我們所觀察的其他每個家庭特征，家庭流動性財富都能很好地預(yù)測MPC。我們使用了一種新的經(jīng)驗方法，克服了現(xiàn)有文獻中發(fā)現(xiàn)的偏見來源，并結(jié)合丹麥的行政數(shù)據(jù)，使我們能夠識別異質(zhì)行為。我們利用研究結(jié)果分析了丹麥和美國的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制。

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10.Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce

評估電子商務(wù)的收益

Paul?Dolfen,?Liran?Einav,?Peter J.?Klenow,?Benjamin?Klopack,?Jonathan D.?Levin,?Larry?Levin?and?Wayne?Best

E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spending in the United States. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate e-commerce reached 8 percent of consumption by 2017, yielding the equivalent of a 1 percent boost to their consumption, or over $1,000 per household per year. While some of the gains arose from avoiding travel costs to local merchants, most of the gains stemmed from substituting to merchants available online but not locally. Higher income consumers gained more, as did consumers in more densely populated counties.

電子商務(wù)在美國消費者支出中的份額迅速增長。我們使用Visa, Inc.在2007年至2017年期間的信用卡和借記卡交易層面的數(shù)據(jù)來量化由此產(chǎn)生的消費者剩余。我們估計，到2017年，電子商務(wù)在消費中的占比達到8%，這相當(dāng)于為他們的消費帶來了1%的提振，即每個家庭每年超過1000美元。雖然其中一些收益來自避免當(dāng)?shù)厣碳业穆眯谐杀?，但大多?shù)收益來自替代網(wǎng)上可獲得的商家，而不是當(dāng)?shù)乜色@得的商家。收入較高的消費者獲得更多，人口更密集的縣的消費者也是如此。

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11.Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices, and Net Exports in a Currency Union

貨幣聯(lián)盟中的財政政策、相對價格和凈出口

Luisa?Lambertini?and?Christian?Proebsting

The hoped-for silver lining of euro-area austerity programs was to raise external competitiveness and improve current accounts. Using product- and industry-level data for 12 countries over the period 1999–2018, we show that reductions in government spending reduce prices and wages but only for products with low import content and industries with low export shares. This leads to asymmetric expenditure switching, with net exports improving through lower imports rather than higher exports. The standard small-open-economy model fails to rationalize these findings, but home bias in government spending and frictions preventing factor prices from equalizing across sectors considerably improve the fit of the model.

歐元區(qū)緊縮計劃的一線希望是提高外部競爭力和改善經(jīng)常賬戶。利用12個國家1999—2018年的產(chǎn)品和行業(yè)層面數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，政府支出的減少會降低價格和工資，但只適用于進口含量低的產(chǎn)品和出口份額低的行業(yè)。這導(dǎo)致了不對稱的支出轉(zhuǎn)換，凈出口通過進口減少而不是出口增加而改善。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的小型開放經(jīng)濟模型未能對這些發(fā)現(xiàn)進行合理化解釋，但政府支出的本土偏見和阻礙要素價格跨部門均衡的摩擦大大改善了模型的擬合度。

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12.House Prices and Consumption: A New Instrumental Variables Approach

房價與消費:一種新的工具變量方法

James?Graham?and?Christos A.?Makridis

We introduce a novel Bartik-like instrument for house prices consisting of the local composition of housing characteristics interacted with aggregate changes in the marginal prices of these characteristics. Using household-level panel data, we estimate elasticities of nondurable consumption expenditures with respect to house prices of around 0.1. These consumption effects are concentrated among the young and those most likely to be facing tight borrowing constraints. A decomposition shows that identifying variation in the instrument is associated with times and locations where house prices have varied the most: during the housing bust of the mid-2000s and in the western United States.

我們引入了一種新的類似bartik的房價工具變量，該工具變量由住房特征的局部構(gòu)成與這些特征的邊際價格的總變化相互作用組成。利用家庭層面的面板數(shù)據(jù)，我們估計非耐用消費支出相對于房價的彈性約為0.1。這些消費效應(yīng)主要集中在年輕人和那些最有可能面臨嚴(yán)格借貸限制的人身上。一項分解表明，該工具變量的識別變化與房價變化最大的時間和地點有關(guān):在2000年代中期的房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂期間和美國西部。

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13.A Risky Venture: Income Dynamics among Pass-Through Business Owners

風(fēng)險投資:傳遞型企業(yè)主的收入動態(tài)

Jason?DeBacker,?Vasia?Panousi?and?Shanthi?Ramnath

We employ a large panel of US income tax returns for the period 1987–2018 to extensively characterize and quantify business income risk. Our findings show business income to be much riskier than labor income. Business income is less persistent and is characterized by higher tail risk. Furthermore, when compared to labor income, heterogeneity across households is less important in explaining the cross-sectional variation in business income, and within-household income variation is more important. Our results underscore the income risks business owners face and provide stylized facts and parameter estimates useful for quantitative macroeconomic models and policy analysis.

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14.Childcare Subsidies and Child Skill Accumulation in One- and Two-Parent Families

單親、雙親家庭托兒補貼與兒童技能積累

Emily G.?Moschini

I examine the role of family structure and childcare subsidies in child skill accumulation. I establish empirically that skill accumulation is more responsive to childcare price for one-parent families than for two-parent families. I analyze the effects of childcare subsidies in a model featuring endogenous family formation, parental altruism, and a baseline subsidy resembling that of the United States. I find that eliminating this subsidy generates welfare losses of 1.63 percent of lifetime consumption, that equilibrium adjustments act to mitigate these losses, and that increasing uptake among one-parent families yields the highest welfare gains per additional recipient.

本文考察了家庭結(jié)構(gòu)和兒童保育補貼在兒童技能積累中的作用。本文通過實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，與雙親家庭相比，單親家庭的技能積累對兒童保育價格的影響更大。本文在一個以內(nèi)生家庭形成、父母利他主義和類似于美國的基線補貼為特征的模型中分析了兒童保育補貼的效果。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，取消這種補貼會導(dǎo)致福利損失占終身消費的1.63%，而平衡調(diào)整法案可以緩解這些損失，增加單親家庭的福利吸收，每增加一個受助者，福利收益最高。

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15.Firm Wages in a Frictional Labor Market

摩擦性勞動力市場中的企業(yè)工資

Leena?Rudanko

This paper studies wage setting in a directed search model of multiworker firms facing within-firm equity constraints on wages. The constraints reduce wages, as firms exploit their monopsony power over their existing workers, rendering wages less responsive to productivity in doing so. They also give rise to a time inconsistency in the dynamic firm problem, as firms face a less elastic labor supply in the short run than in the long run, making commitment to future wages valuable. Constrained firms find it profitable to fix wages, and doing so is good for worker welfare and resource allocation in equilibrium.

本文研究了一個多工人企業(yè)的定向搜索模型下的工資設(shè)定問題。這些限制降低了工資，因為企業(yè)利用其對現(xiàn)有工人的壟斷權(quán)力，使工資對生產(chǎn)率的反應(yīng)更弱。它們還導(dǎo)致了動態(tài)企業(yè)問題的時間不一致性，因為企業(yè)面臨的短期勞動力供應(yīng)彈性低于長期，這使得對未來工資的承諾變得有價值。受限制的企業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)，固定工資是有利可圖的，這樣做有利于工人福利和均衡的資源分配。