Here’s why that is no bad thing

這就是為什么這不是一件壞事

After decades of blue-collar jobs being snatched up by machines, advanced chatbots are now breathing down white collars. “Generative” artificial-intelligence (ai) tools, such as ChatGPT, have made significant progress in crafting human-sounding language and grasping context. So much so that they have leapfrogged humans in some tasks. This could make as many as 300m jobs redundant globally, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank.

經(jīng)過幾十年的藍領(lǐng)工作被機器奪走后，先進的聊天機器人現(xiàn)在正在威脅到白領(lǐng)。像ChatGPT這樣的“生成式”人工智能（AI）工具，在塑造類似于人類語言和理解上已經(jīng)取得了重大進展。以至于它們在某些任務(wù)中已經(jīng)超越了人類。根據(jù)高盛銀行（Goldman Sachs）的說法，這可能會使全球多達3億個就業(yè)崗位變得多余。

A recent study by OpenAI, the startup that created ChatGPT, looked at the potential for automation across 1,016 occupations. Humans and AI separately rated how well software powered by large-language models (llms), which are trained on vast chunks of the internet and then fine-tuned to specific functions, could undertake 19,000 tasks involved in the jobs. 創(chuàng)建ChatGPT的初創(chuàng)公司OpenAI最近的一項研究研究了1,016個職業(yè)的自動化潛力。人類和人工智能分別評估了由大型語言模型（llms）驅(qū)動的軟件的性能，這些軟件在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上進行了大量訓練，然后根據(jù)特定功能進行了微調(diào)，可以承擔19000項工作中涉及的任務(wù)。

If the software, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, was deemed able to reduce the time it takes humans to complete the task by at least half, without a drop in quality, the task was considered ripe for AI replacement (a score of one meant that the whole occupation could be done in half the time).

如果像OpenAI的GPT-4這樣的軟件被認為能夠?qū)⑷祟愅瓿扇蝿?wù)所需的時間減少至少一半，而不會降低質(zhì)量，則該任務(wù)被視為適合由人工智能取代（得分為1表示整個職業(yè)可以在一半時間內(nèi)完成）。

For other tasks the annotators imagined additional software that could be added to the model, such as computer tools that can automatically pull fresh data from the internet. They found that 80% of Americans could have at least 10% of their work tasks done by advanced AI tools.

對于其他任務(wù)，注釋者們設(shè)想了可以添加到模型中的額外軟件，比如可以自動從互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上獲取新數(shù)據(jù)的計算機工具。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，80%的美國人可以通過先進的人工智能工具完成至少10%的工作任務(wù)。

The figure rises to 50% of tasks for an estimated 19% of workers.

這一數(shù)字上升到50%的任務(wù)，估計有19%的工人。

Most exposed are industries which rely on programming and writing skills.

最容易受到影響的是依賴編程和寫作技能的行業(yè)。*

That echoes another study, published on March 1st by academics in America, which found that the industries most at risk of a shake-up were legal services and some areas of the financial and insurance industries.

這與美國學者3月1日發(fā)表的另一項研究相呼應(yīng)，該研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，最有可能發(fā)生重組的行業(yè)是法律的服務(wù)業(yè)和金融保險業(yè)的某些領(lǐng)域。

They point to telemarketers as the occupation most likely to be made redundant. Teachers, especially those of languages, literature and history, are next on the list.

他們指出，電話推銷員是最有可能被裁員的職業(yè)。教師，尤其是語言、文學和歷史教師，排在第二位。

What is striking in both studies is that, unlike past breakthroughs in machine learning, it is skilled and high-paying jobs that are most exposed.

這兩項研究中引人注目的是，與過去機器學習的突破不同，技術(shù)和高薪工作暴露最多。

This automation should not be feared. It could unshackle workers from mundane tasks and unleash greater labour productivity, which would be a boon for drum-tight labour markets in advanced economies. A study by Goldman Sachs, published on April 5th, suggests that generative AI could grow global gdp by 7% in the next decade.

這種自動化不應(yīng)該被害怕。它可以使工人擺脫單調(diào)的任務(wù)，釋放更大的勞動生產(chǎn)力，這對于先進經(jīng)濟體中緊縮的勞動力市場將是一個福音。高盛4月5日發(fā)布的一項研究表明，生成式人工智能在未來十年內(nèi)可能會增加全球GDP 7%。

But studies like this may overstate the potential for automation. The annotators responsible for mapping overlaps between llms and human capabilities may omit some tacit skills in professions they know less about. Human qualities essential for some jobs, such as empathy or charisma, will be overlooked.

但像這樣的研究可能夸大了自動化的潛力。負責映射llms和人類能力之間重疊的注釋者可能會忽略一些他們不太了解的職業(yè)中的隱性技能。 對某些工作至關(guān)重要的人類品質(zhì)，如同情心或魅力，將被忽視。

And not all tasks capable of being carried out by AI should be: Vanderbilt University in Tennessee had to apologise for using ChatGPT to write a condolence email to students after a shooting at another American university.

并非所有能夠由AI執(zhí)行的任務(wù)都應(yīng)該是：田納西州的范德比爾特大學不得不為在另一所美國大學發(fā)生槍擊案后使用ChatGPT給學生寫慰問電子郵件而道歉。

Many businesses may also lack the IT architecture or inclination to accommodate AI innovations. And those who embrace it will face practical and legal quandaries. When chatbots do not know what to say, they often fib (though so can humans).

許多企業(yè)也可能缺乏IT架構(gòu)或傾向于適應(yīng)人工智能創(chuàng)新。而那些擁護它的人將面臨實際和法律的上的困境。當聊天機器人不知道該說什么時，他們經(jīng)常撒謊（盡管人類也可以）。

The “creative” output they generate is based on a mashup of data sourced from the internet, raising thorny issues around accuracy, privacy and intellectual property. For all their conversational panache, in the real world, AI tools will still need handlers. That may even end up creating new jobs.

他們產(chǎn)生的“創(chuàng)造性”輸出是基于來自互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的數(shù)據(jù)混搭，這引發(fā)了圍繞準確性，隱私和知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的棘手問題。在真實的世界中，人工智能工具仍然需要處理程序。這甚至可能最終創(chuàng)造新的就業(yè)機會。