The Economic journal?2023年第5期

Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

Political Risk, Populism and the Economy

政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、民粹主義和經(jīng)濟(jì)

Pierluigi Balduzziand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1677–1704,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead017

We study the financial and real effects of political risk shocks for Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece between 2008 and 2019. We build an instrument for these shocks using the changes of the sovereign yield spread around political and policy dates, and estimate their effects in the context of local projection. We show that adverse political risk shocks have negative effects on domestic financial markets and in some countries generate spillovers on the spreads of other eurozone economies. Moreover, in Italy populism-related political risk shocks have a larger effect on financial markets and they harm the real economy.

Mineral Resources and the Salience of Ethnic Identities

礦產(chǎn)資源與民族認(rèn)同的凸顯

Nicolas Bermanand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1705–1737,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead018

This paper shows how ethnic identities may become more salient due to natural resources extraction. We combine individual data on the strength of ethnic—relative to national—identities with geo-localised information on the contours of ethnic homelands, and on the timing and location of mineral resources exploitation in 25 African countries, from 2005 to 2015. Our strategy takes advantage of several dimensions of exposure to resources exploitation: time, spatial proximity and ethnic proximity. We find that the strength of an ethnic group identity increases when mineral resource exploitation in that group’s historical homeland intensifies. We argue that this result is at least partly rooted in feelings of relative deprivation associated with the exploitation of the resources. We show that such exploitation has limited positive economic spillovers, especially for members of the indigenous ethnic group; and that the link between mineral resources and the salience of ethnic identities is reinforced among members of powerless ethnic groups and groups with strong baseline identity feelings or living in poorer areas, or areas with a history of conflict. Put together, these findings suggest a new dimension of the natural resource curse: the fragmentation of identities, between ethnic groups and nations.

The Effects of Fiscal Decentralisation on Publicly Provided Services and Labour Markets

財(cái)政分權(quán)對(duì)公共提供的服務(wù)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的影響

Nicola Bianchiand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1738–1772,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead022

Abstract

This paper studies how fiscal decentralisation affects labour supply. It explores a reform that increased the fiscal autonomy of Italian municipalities by replacing government transfers with revenues from a local property tax. Our identification leverages cross-municipal variation in the degree of decentralisation that stems from differences in the average age of buildings caused by World War II bombings. Decentralisation expanded municipal services, such as nursery schools, especially in areas with greater political competition. The paper then investigates how the reform affected labour markets. Decentralisation increased female labour supply—probably through expanded availability of nursery schools—thereby reducing the gender gap in employment.

How Effective are Female Role Models in Steering Girls Towards STEM? Evidence from French High Schools

女性榜樣在引導(dǎo)女孩走向STEM方面的效果如何?來(lái)自法國(guó)高中的證據(jù)

Thomas Bredaand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1773–1809,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead019

Abstract

We show in a large-scale field experiment that a brief exposure to female role models working in scientific fields affects high school students’ perceptions and choices of undergraduate major. The classroom interventions reduced the prevalence of stereotypical views on jobs in science and gender differences in abilities. They also made high-achieving girls in grade12 more likely to enrol in selective and male-dominated science, technology, engineering and mathematics programs in college. Comparing treatment effects across the 56?role model participants, we find that the most effective interventions are those that improved students’ perceptions of science, technology, engineering and mathematics careers without overemphasising women’s under-representation in science.

Income-Based Affirmative Action in College Admissions

大學(xué)招生中基于收入的平權(quán)行動(dòng)

Luiz Brotherhoodand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1810–1845,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead016

Abstract

We study whether college admissions should implement quotas for lower-income applicants. We develop an overlapping-generation model and calibrate it to data from Brazil, where such a policy is widely implemented. In our model, parents choose how much to invest in their child’s education, thereby increasing both human capital and likelihood of college admission. We find that, in the long run, the optimal income-based affirmative action increases welfare and aggregate output. It improves the pool of admitted students, but distorts pre-college educational investments. The welfare-maximising policy benefits lower- to middle-income applicants with income-based quotas, while higher-income applicants face fiercer competition in college admissions. The optimal policy reduces intergenerational persistence of earnings by 5.7% and makes nearly 80% of households better off.

Creativity and Corporate Culture

創(chuàng)意與企業(yè)文化

Gary Charnessand?Daniela Grieco

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1846–1870,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead012

Abstract

We investigate which form of corporate culture is most effective in enhancing individual performance in creative tasks conducted in group settings. We combine a series of experiments with a questionnaire on corporate values to test whether performance ranking and incentives succeed in instantiating a creative corporate culture. Being ranked against competitors and setting incentives at the group level serves as a social cue that appears to induce in members a significantly stronger pro-social attitude. When this attitude is shared by group members, a social norm of high effort emerges, and creative performance is significantly higher.

我們調(diào)查了哪種形式的企業(yè)文化最有效地提高個(gè)人表現(xiàn)在創(chuàng)造性任務(wù)中進(jìn)行的團(tuán)體設(shè)置。本文將一系列實(shí)驗(yàn)與企業(yè)價(jià)值觀問(wèn)卷相結(jié)合，以檢驗(yàn)績(jī)效排名和激勵(lì)措施是否能夠成功地實(shí)例化創(chuàng)造性企業(yè)文化。與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手進(jìn)行排名和在群體層面設(shè)置激勵(lì)措施，作為一種社會(huì)線索，似乎會(huì)誘導(dǎo)成員產(chǎn)生更強(qiáng)烈的親社會(huì)態(tài)度。當(dāng)這種態(tài)度被群體成員共享時(shí)，一種高努力的社會(huì)規(guī)范就會(huì)出現(xiàn)，創(chuàng)造性績(jī)效顯著更高。

Production Networks And International Fiscal Spillovers

生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和國(guó)際財(cái)政溢出效應(yīng)

Michael B Devereuxand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1871–1900,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead014

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of fiscal spending shocks in a dynamic, multi-country model with international production networks. The response of real gross domestic product to a fiscal spending shock can be decomposed into a direct effect, income effect and price effect. The direct effect depends only on input-output linkages, while the price effect is zero in the aggregate. We apply this decomposition to the Eurozone, and find that fiscal spillovers from Germany and the core Eurozone countries can be large, and within the range of empirical estimates. Without international production networks, spillovers would be significantly smaller. In an empirical application, using the decomposition, we find results strongly consistent with the model.

本文在一個(gè)具有國(guó)際生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的動(dòng)態(tài)多國(guó)模型中，分析了財(cái)政支出沖擊的影響。實(shí)際國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(gdp)對(duì)財(cái)政支出沖擊的反應(yīng)可以分解為直接效應(yīng)、收入效應(yīng)和價(jià)格效應(yīng)。直接效應(yīng)僅依賴(lài)于投入產(chǎn)出聯(lián)系，而價(jià)格效應(yīng)在總體上為零。我們將這種分解應(yīng)用于歐元區(qū)，發(fā)現(xiàn)德國(guó)和歐元區(qū)核心國(guó)家的財(cái)政溢出可能很大，而且在經(jīng)驗(yàn)估計(jì)的范圍內(nèi)。如果沒(méi)有國(guó)際生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，溢出效應(yīng)會(huì)小得多。在一個(gè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)應(yīng)用中，使用分解，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)結(jié)果與模型強(qiáng)烈一致。

Neighbourhood Gangs, Crime Spillovers and Teenage Motherhood

鄰里幫派，犯罪溢出和青少年母親

Christian Dustmannand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1901–1936,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead009

Abstract

Using an identification strategy based on random assignment of refugees to different municipalities in Denmark between 1986 and 1998, we find strong evidence that gang crime rates in the neighbourhood at assignment increase the probability of boys to commit crimes before the age of 19, and that gang crime (but not other crime) increases the likelihood of teenage motherhood for girls. Higher levels of gang crime also have detrimental and long-lasting effects, with men experiencing significantly higher levels of inactivity and women experiencing lower earnings and higher levels of welfare benefit claims at ages 19 to 28.

Generic and Branded Pharmaceutical Pricing: Competition Under Switching Costs

仿制藥和品牌藥定價(jià):轉(zhuǎn)換成本下的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)

Aljoscha Janssen

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1937–1967,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead021

Abstract

This article examines pricing in pharmaceutical markets where branded products face competition from generics. After providing evidence for brand premia and switching costs using prescription-level and matched socioeconomic data for the entire Swedish population, I estimate a dynamic oligopoly model and evaluate counterfactual policies that reduce the impact of frictions on pricing. Lengthening the procurement period reduces the impact of switching costs on prices. The policy increases prices on average, but more so for individuals with infrequent consumption, high education and income. In a counterfactual where brand choice decisions are moved from patients to medical experts, prices fall substantially.

Designing Effective Teacher Performance Pay Programs: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania

設(shè)計(jì)有效的教師績(jī)效薪酬方案:來(lái)自坦桑尼亞的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Isaac Mbitiand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 1968–2000,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead010

Abstract

We use a nationally representative field experiment in Tanzania to compare two teacher performance pay systems in public primary schools: a ‘pay-for-percentile’ system (a rank-order tournament) and a ‘levels’ system that features multiple proficiency thresholds. Pay for percentile can potentially induce socially optimal effort among teachers, while levels systems can encourage teachers to focus on students near passing thresholds. Despite the theoretical advantage of the tournament system, we find that both systems improved student test scores across the distribution of initial learning levels after two years. However, the levels system is easier to implement and is more cost effective.

Tax Revenues in Low-Income Countries

低收入國(guó)家的稅收

Adrian Peralta-Alvaand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2001–2024,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead023

Abstract

We quantitatively investigate the welfare costs of increasing tax revenues in low-income countries. We consider three tax instruments: consumption, labour income and capital income taxes. The analysis is based on a general equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous agents, incomplete financial markets, and rural and urban areas. We calibrate the model to Ethiopia and decompose the welfare costs into their aggregate and distributional components. We find that changing taxes alter the composition of demand. This, together with limited labour mobility, causes the incidence of higher taxes to fall disproportionately on the rural population, regardless of the instrument. Consumption taxes are the instrument with the largest welfare loss.

我們定量研究了低收入國(guó)家增加稅收收入的福利成本。我們考慮三種稅收工具:消費(fèi)、勞動(dòng)收入和資本所得稅。這一分析基于一個(gè)以異質(zhì)性代理人、不完全金融市場(chǎng)和城鄉(xiāng)地區(qū)為特征的一般均衡模型。我們將該模型校準(zhǔn)到埃塞俄比亞，并將福利成本分解為其總量和分配部分。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，稅收的變化會(huì)改變需求的構(gòu)成。這一點(diǎn)，再加上勞動(dòng)力流動(dòng)性有限，導(dǎo)致無(wú)論采取何種手段，更高的稅收都不成比例地落在農(nóng)村人口身上。消費(fèi)稅是福利損失最大的工具。

Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies

休學(xué):休學(xué)政策對(duì)教育生產(chǎn)的影響

Nolan G Popeand?George W Zuo

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2025–2054,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead011

Abstract

Managing student behaviour is integral to the education production process. We study the trade-offs of school suspension policies by modelling and estimating how changes in school suspension policies causally impact student performance and teacher turnover. Our results indicate that the reduction in suspension rates in the Los Angeles Unified School District decreased math and English test scores, decreased grade point averages and increased absences. Teacher turnover also increased, particularly for inexperienced teachers. We also document an efficiency-equity trade-off: while achievement decreased for most students in the district, the highest-risk students experienced moderate gains in achievement.

Location, Location, Location: Manufacturing and House Price Growth

區(qū)位、區(qū)位、區(qū)位:制造業(yè)與房?jī)r(jià)增長(zhǎng)

Xiangyu Fengand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2055–2067,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead008

Abstract

Exploiting data on tens of millions of housing transactions, we show that (1) house prices grew by less in manufacturing-heavy US regions, (2) this pattern is especially present for the lowest-value homes and that (3) price declines coincided with worse labour market outcomes, consistent with an income channel. Counterfactual accounting exercises reveal that regional differences in the growth of these lowest-value homes are an important driver of the changes in overall house price inequality. Hence, the economic decline in manufacturing-heavy areas extends far beyond income and employment flows to house prices.

利用數(shù)以千萬(wàn)計(jì)的房屋交易數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)(1)在制造業(yè)為主的美國(guó)地區(qū)，房?jī)r(jià)增長(zhǎng)較少;(2)這種模式在價(jià)值最低的房屋中尤其存在;(3)價(jià)格下跌與勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)結(jié)果更糟有關(guān)，這與收入渠道一致。反事實(shí)會(huì)計(jì)實(shí)踐揭示，這些最低價(jià)值住房增長(zhǎng)的地區(qū)差異是整體房?jī)r(jià)不平等變化的一個(gè)重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。因此，以制造業(yè)為主的地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了收入和就業(yè)流，還影響到了房?jī)r(jià)。

Political Activists as Free Riders: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment

政治活動(dòng)家是搭便車(chē)者:來(lái)自自然野外實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

Anselm Hagerand others

The Economic Journal, Volume 133, Issue 653, July 2023, Pages 2068–2084,?https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead020

How does a citizen’s decision to participate in political activism depend on the participation of others? We conduct a nationwide natural field experiment in collaboration with a major European party during a recent national election. In a party survey, we randomly provide canvassers with true information about the canvassing intentions of their peers. When learning that more peers participate in canvassing than previously believed, canvassers significantly reduce both their canvassing intentions and behaviour. An additional survey among party supporters underscores the importance of free-riding motives and reveals that there is strong heterogeneity in motives underlying supporters’ behavioural responses.

公民參與政治活動(dòng)的決定如何取決于其他人的參與?在最近的一次全國(guó)選舉中，我們與一個(gè)主要的歐洲政黨合作，進(jìn)行了一次全國(guó)性的自然田野實(shí)驗(yàn)。在政黨調(diào)查中，我們隨機(jī)向拉票人提供他們的同齡人的拉票意圖的真實(shí)信息。當(dāng)了解到參與拉票的同齡人比之前認(rèn)為的更多時(shí)，拉票者會(huì)顯著降低他們的拉票意圖和行為。另一項(xiàng)對(duì)政黨支持者的調(diào)查強(qiáng)調(diào)了搭便車(chē)動(dòng)機(jī)的重要性，并揭示了支持者行為反應(yīng)背后的動(dòng)機(jī)存在強(qiáng)烈的異質(zhì)性。