The World in 2021

The coming covid-19 credit crunch

A credit crunch?is coming, says the World Bank’s chief economist

THE COVID-19 crisis did not start as a financial crisis, but it is?morphing?into one—and a global one?at that. The headlines of 2020 have been dominated by news of the pandemic’s spread, record-shattering falls in output, and surges in poverty and the newly unemployed.?Behind these disturbing trends a quieter financial balance-sheet crisis is gathering momentum across a broad swathe of countries. The financial fallout?from the pandemic does not respect differences by region or income status. Financial institutions are facing (and will face for some time) a marked rise in?non-performing loans (NPLS).

credit crunch：信貸緊縮；信貸危機(jī)

morph ?v. /m??f/ 1.（使）變形（利用電腦動(dòng)畫(huà)制作使圖像平穩(wěn)變換）；2.（使）變化；（使）改變?

surge /s??d?/ ?

動(dòng)詞：

1.[ + adv./prep. ]涌；洶涌；涌動(dòng)??The gates opened and the crowd surged forward. 大門(mén)打開(kāi)了，人群向前涌去。

2.[ + adv./prep. ] 使強(qiáng)烈地感到??Relief surged through her. 她頓覺(jué)寬慰。

3.(物價(jià)、利潤(rùn)等) 急劇上升；飛漲；激增??Share prices surged. 股價(jià)猛漲。

4.(電流) 浪涌

名詞

1.~ (of sth) （強(qiáng)烈感情的）突發(fā)??She felt a sudden surge of anger. 她突然感覺(jué)怒火中燒。

2.~ (in/of sth) （數(shù)量的）急劇上升，激增；大量；一大批??a surge in consumer spending 消費(fèi)開(kāi)支的激增

3.~ (of sth) 奔涌向前；突然的向上運(yùn)動(dòng)??a tidal surge 漲潮

4.（電流）浪涌??An electrical surge damaged the computer's disk drive. 電流浪涌損壞了計(jì)算機(jī)的磁盤(pán)驅(qū)動(dòng)器。

momentum ?/m??ment?m/ n. 勢(shì)頭；[物] 動(dòng)量；動(dòng)力；沖力

Swathe /swe?e/?n. （割了莊稼的）一長(zhǎng)條田地；一長(zhǎng)條；繃帶，包裝物；v. 包，裹；緊綁

Fallout??n./?f??la?t/1.（核爆炸后的）放射性墜塵；2.后果；余波

non-performing loans (NPLS)：不良貸款

Historically, banking crises emerge after a lengthy?expansion in economic activity. Growth is often fuelled by a credit boom and rising leverage. Under the motto of “this time is different”, asset-price bubbles emerge during the biblical?“seven fat years” (whether in property, commodities, equity or bonds). As the economic expansion slows and turns into recession, loans made during the good times turn sour. Sometimes balance-sheet problems undermine?confidence, and runs on banks and financial institutions turn the crisis into a fully fledged panic. Households and firms attempt to?deleverage after the crisis, even as banks adopt tighter lending standards. If banks resist writing down bad loans in favour of “evergreening”,?as was the case in Japan’s crisis in the early 1990s and in Europe after 2007-09, the resulting credit crunch may be longer and more severe, even surpassing the biblical “seven lean years”.

lengthy ?adj. /?le?θi/ 很長(zhǎng)的；漫長(zhǎng)的；冗長(zhǎng)的?? lengthy delays 多次長(zhǎng)時(shí)間拖延

seven fat years：圣經(jīng)中的“七個(gè)豐年”，圣經(jīng)中法老通過(guò)異夢(mèng)得知埃及七個(gè)豐年之后就是七個(gè)災(zāi)年，需要未雨綢繆，預(yù)防災(zāi)荒。

Undermine ?v. /??nd??ma?n/??1.逐漸削弱（信心、權(quán)威等）；使逐步減少效力??This crisis has undermined his position. 這場(chǎng)危機(jī)已損害了他的地位。 2. 從根基處破壞；挖…的墻腳

fully fledged /?f?li ?fled?d/?成熟的；完全合格的?? the emergence of a fully fledged market economy 成熟市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的出現(xiàn)

runs on banks and financial institutions ：擠兌銀行和金融機(jī)構(gòu)

deleverage /di??l?v?r?d?, -vr?d?/ V (機(jī)構(gòu))減債

Evergreening：為延期產(chǎn)品專(zhuān)利而采取一系列法律和商業(yè)策略，其目的是在專(zhuān)利過(guò)期之后，能夠延長(zhǎng)對(duì)專(zhuān)利的控制。

But this time truly is different. The run-up to?the credit crunch in 2021 does not fit the historical boom-bust?pattern in many countries. It is not predicated on having experienced an economic expansion or an asset-price bubble. The common threads?to the evolving balance-sheet crisis and the credit crunch that will follow are the historic magnitudes and likely persistence of the slump in economic activity. It is also a regressive crisis, disproportionally hitting low-income households and smaller firms that have fewer assets to avert?insolvency.

run-up to：跑到、累計(jì)到、達(dá)到

Bust??v. 打破；炸破；猛烈打擊；突擊搜捕；n. 胸圍；半身像；經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條；逮捕； 沒(méi)價(jià)值的事物；adj. 壞的；破產(chǎn)的

Thread??/θred/ n. 線(xiàn)；螺紋；思路；衣服；線(xiàn)狀物；玻璃纖維；路線(xiàn)；vt. 穿過(guò)；穿線(xiàn)于；使交織；vi. 通過(guò)；穿透過(guò)

disproportionally /,d?spr?'p?r??nli/?adv. 不均衡地；不相稱(chēng)地

Insolvency??/?n?s?lv?nsi/?n. 破產(chǎn)，無(wú)力償還；倒閉

High leverage?on the eve of the pandemic will amplify the balance-sheet problems of the financial sector. Companies in the world’s largest economies, America and China, are highly indebted and skewed towards high-risk borrowers. The IMF has repeatedly flagged concerns about the pre-pandemic rise in corporate leverage in many emerging markets, where much debt is denominated in dollars. Six months into the covid-19 crisis, S&P had downgraded or cut the outlook on?almost 60% of the Latin American companies it rates. For the rest of the world the share is about 35-40%. Exposure to?commercial property, as malls remain half-empty, is another source of concern in many parts of the world.

on the eve of ：在···的前夜

Amplify??v./??mpl?fa?/ ?

1.放大，增強(qiáng)（聲音等）??to amplify a guitar/an electric current/a signal 放大吉他聲音╱電流╱信號(hào)

2.闡發(fā)，充實(shí)（故事、事情、陳述等）??She refused to amplify further. 她拒絕提供詳情。

Skewed??adj./skju?d/ ?

1.?(信息)歪曲的；有偏頗的；不準(zhǔn)確的??skewed statistics 不準(zhǔn)確的統(tǒng)計(jì)

2.~ (towards sb/sth) 偏向（或偏重）…的??The book is heavily skewed towards American readers. 這本書(shū)嚴(yán)重傾向于美國(guó)讀者。

3.偏的；斜的；歪的??The car had ended up skewed across the road. 汽車(chē)最終斜著停在公路上。

譯文? ?

THE COVID-19 crisis did not?start as a financial crisis, but it is?morphing?into one—and a global one?at that. The headlines of 2020 have been dominated by news of the pandemic’s spread,?record-shattering falls in output, and?surges in?poverty and the newly unemployed.?Behind these disturbing trends a quieter financial balance-sheet crisis is gathering?momentum?across a broad swathe of countries. The financial?fallout?from the pandemic does not respect differences by region or income status. Financial institutions are facing (and will face for some time) a marked rise in?non-performing loans (NPLS).

新冠危機(jī)雖不是以金融危機(jī)開(kāi)啟但正在形成一個(gè)金融危機(jī)——而且是全球性的。2020年的頭版頭條都被新冠疫情新聞牢牢掌控：疫情擴(kuò)散、產(chǎn)出破紀(jì)錄的下降、窮困和失業(yè)人口激增。在這令人不安的狀況背后一場(chǎng)安靜的金融資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表危機(jī)正在聚集，波及一長(zhǎng)串的國(guó)家。這場(chǎng)疫情導(dǎo)致的金融危機(jī)一視同仁，不論地區(qū)不同與國(guó)家財(cái)富多少。金融機(jī)構(gòu)正在面臨或者將面臨顯著增長(zhǎng)的不良信貸。

Historically, banking crises emerge after a?lengthy?expansion in economic activity. Growth is often fuelled by a credit boom and rising leverage. Under the motto of “this time is different”, asset-price bubbles emerge during the biblical?“seven fat years”?(whether in property, commodities, equity or bonds). As the economic expansion slows and turns into recession, loans made during the good times turn sour. Sometimes balance-sheet problems?undermine?confidence, and?runs on banks and financial institutions?turn the crisis into?a fully fledged panic. Households and firms attempt to?deleverage?after the crisis, even as banks adopt tighter lending standards. If banks resist writing down bad loans in favour of “evergreening”,?as was the case in Japan’s crisis in the early 1990s and in Europe after 2007-09, the resulting credit crunch may be longer and more severe, even surpassing the biblical “seven lean years”.

從歷史上來(lái)說(shuō)，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的漫長(zhǎng)擴(kuò)張之后出現(xiàn)了銀行危機(jī)。信貸繁榮和杠桿提高刺激著增長(zhǎng)。在“這次不一樣”的口號(hào)下，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫出現(xiàn)在如圣經(jīng)中的“七個(gè)豐年”的繁榮時(shí)期（不管是房地產(chǎn)、商品還是股票和債券）。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張變緩，轉(zhuǎn)向衰退期，繁榮時(shí)期的貸款變質(zhì)，成為不良貸款。有的時(shí)候資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上的問(wèn)題會(huì)破壞信任，銀行和金融機(jī)構(gòu)的擠兌會(huì)將危機(jī)演變成一個(gè)全方位的恐慌。家庭和公司試圖在危機(jī)之后減持債務(wù)，甚至銀行也采取緊縮借貸政策。如果銀行拒絕減記不良貸款，而是不斷“延期”，如同90年代初的日本經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和2007-09年的歐洲，則造成的信貸危機(jī)有可能持續(xù)更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間和更加嚴(yán)重，甚至可能超過(guò)圣經(jīng)中的“七個(gè)災(zāi)年”。

But this time truly is different. The?run-up to?the credit crunch in 2021 does not fit the historical boom-bust?pattern in many countries. It is not predicated on having experienced an economic expansion or an asset-price bubble. The common?threads?to the evolving balance-sheet crisis and the credit crunch that will follow are the historic magnitudes and likely persistence of the slump in economic activity. It is also a regressive crisis,?disproportionally?hitting low-income households and smaller firms that have fewer assets to avert?insolvency.

但這次不一樣，逐漸積聚到2021年的信貸危機(jī)并不符合多數(shù)國(guó)家歷史常規(guī)的繁榮-衰退模式。世界并沒(méi)有正在經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張或者資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫。將要到來(lái)的不斷演變的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表危機(jī)和通貨緊縮危機(jī)的共同線(xiàn)索是他們?cè)斐傻慕?jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)低迷是歷史級(jí)別的，而且持續(xù)長(zhǎng)久。它還是一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)退化危機(jī)，強(qiáng)力沖擊著資產(chǎn)稀少，難以抵御破產(chǎn)的低收入家庭和小微企業(yè)。

High leverage?on the eve of?the pandemic will?amplify?the balance-sheet problems of the financial sector. Companies in the world’s largest economies, America and China, are highly indebted and?skewed?towards high-risk borrowers. The IMF has repeatedly flagged concerns about the pre-pandemic rise in corporate leverage in many emerging markets, where much debt is denominated in dollars. Six months into the covid-19 crisis, S&P had downgraded or cut?the outlook on?almost 60% of the Latin American companies it rates. For the rest of the world the share is about 35-40%.?Exposure to?commercial property, as malls remain half-empty, is another source of concern in many parts of the world.

疫情前夜的高杠桿會(huì)增加金融方面的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債問(wèn)題。在中美兩個(gè)世界最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中的企業(yè)都債務(wù)高舉，滑向高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)借款人。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織在疫情前就反復(fù)強(qiáng)調(diào)對(duì)許多新興市場(chǎng)中企業(yè)的高杠桿擔(dān)憂(yōu)，并且這些地方的債務(wù)基本是美元主導(dǎo)。新冠疫情爆發(fā)6個(gè)月，標(biāo)普對(duì)拉丁美洲國(guó)家60%的企業(yè)進(jìn)行信用降級(jí)或者降低對(duì)其未來(lái)的前景預(yù)期。其他地區(qū)約35%-40%。在世界許多地方，由于商場(chǎng)基本是半空狀態(tài)，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞開(kāi)是另一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)的問(wèn)題。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人2020年末