原文標(biāo)題：
How to worry wisely about AI
Rapid progress in AI is arousing fear as well as excitement. How concerned should you be?
如何明智地看待人工智能
人工智能的迅猛發(fā)展既帶來了興奮，也引發(fā)了擔(dān)憂。你應(yīng)該有多擔(dān)憂呢？

Technology and society
科技與社會(huì)

[Paragraph 1]
“SHOULD WE AUTOMATE away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop non-human minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart...and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilisation?”
“我們是否應(yīng)該將所有的工作都自動(dòng)化，包括有意義的工作？我們是否應(yīng)該開發(fā)那些最終超過、勝過...并取代我們的非人類大腦？我們是否有失去人類文明的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？"

These questions were asked last month in an open letter from the Future of Life Institute, an NGO.
上個(gè)月，非政府組織“未來生命研究所”在一封公開信中提出了這些問題。

It called for a six-month “pause” in the creation of the most advanced forms of artificial intelligence (AI), and was signed by tech luminaries including Elon Musk.
它呼吁在創(chuàng)造最先進(jìn)的人工智能方面“暫?！?個(gè)月，公開信由埃隆.馬斯克等多位科技名人簽署。

It is the most prominent example yet of how rapid progress in AI has sparked anxiety about the potential dangers of the technology.
這是迄今為止最突出的例子，說明人工智能的快速發(fā)展已經(jīng)引發(fā)了對該技術(shù)潛在危險(xiǎn)的擔(dān)憂。

[Paragraph 2]
In particular, new “l(fā)arge language models” (LLMs)—the sort that powers ChatGPT, a chatbot made by OpenAI, a startup—have surprised even their creators with their unexpected talents as they have been scaled up.
特別是，新的“大型語言模型”(LLM)——為初創(chuàng)公司 OpenAI 開發(fā)的聊天機(jī)器人 ChatGPT 提供動(dòng)力的那種——在規(guī)模擴(kuò)大時(shí)以其意想不到的才能讓其創(chuàng)造者感到驚訝。

Such “emergent” abilities include everything from solving logic puzzles and writing computer code to identifying films from plot summaries written in emoji.
這種“新興”能力包括解決邏輯難題的能力、編寫計(jì)算機(jī)代碼的能力、從表情包的情節(jié)摘要中識別電影的能力。

[Paragraph 3]
These models stand to transform humans’ relationship with computers, knowledge and even with themselves.
這些模型將改變?nèi)祟惻c計(jì)算機(jī)、知識、甚至與人類自身的關(guān)系。

Proponents of AI argue for its potential to solve big problems by developing new drugs, designing new materials to help fight climate change, or untangling the complexities of fusion power.
人工智能的支持者認(rèn)為它有解決重大問題的潛力，如開發(fā)新藥、設(shè)計(jì)新材料以幫助應(yīng)對氣候變化、解開核聚變發(fā)電的復(fù)雜問題。

To others, the fact that AIs’ capabilities are already outrunning their creators’ understanding risks bringing to life the science-fiction disaster scenario of the machine that outsmarts its inventor, often with fatal consequences.
反對者認(rèn)為，人工智能的能力已經(jīng)超過了其創(chuàng)造者的理解力，這有可能使科幻片中機(jī)器勝過其發(fā)明者的災(zāi)難場景成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，通常會(huì)帶來致命的后果。

[Paragraph 4]
This bubbling mixture of excitement and fear makes it hard to weigh the opportunities and risks.
這種興奮和恐懼的混合體使我們難以權(quán)衡機(jī)會(huì)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

But lessons can be learned from other industries, and from past technological shifts.
但是可以從其他行業(yè)及曾經(jīng)的技術(shù)變革中吸取教訓(xùn)。

So what has changed to make AI so much more capable? How scared should you be? And what should governments do?
那么是什么樣的改變讓 AI 變得如此強(qiáng)大？你應(yīng)該有多恐懼呢？政府應(yīng)該做什么呢？

[Paragraph 5]
In a special Science section, we explore the workings of LLMs and their future direction.
在特別的科學(xué)章節(jié)中，我們研究了大型語言模型的工作原理及其未來方向。

The first wave of modern AI systems, which emerged a decade ago, relied on carefully labelled training data.
10年前出現(xiàn)的第一波現(xiàn)代AI系統(tǒng)，依靠的是精心標(biāo)記的訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)。

Once exposed to a sufficient number of labelled examples, they could learn to do things like recognise images or transcribe speech.
一旦接觸到足夠數(shù)量的標(biāo)記實(shí)例，它們就能學(xué)會(huì)做一些事情，比如識別圖像或轉(zhuǎn)錄語音。

Today’s systems do not require pre-labelling, and as a result can be trained using much larger data sets taken from online sources.
如今的AI系統(tǒng)不需要預(yù)先標(biāo)記，因此可以使用在線資源里的大規(guī)模數(shù)據(jù)集進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練。

LLMs can, in effect, be trained on the entire internet—which explains their capabilities, good and bad.
實(shí)際上，大型語言模型可以在整個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練——這就是他們?yōu)槭裁慈绱藦?qiáng)大的原因，有好有壞。

[Paragraph 6]
Those capabilities became apparent to a wider public when ChatGPT was released in November. A million people had used it within a week; 100m within two months.
當(dāng)ChatGPT在11月發(fā)布時(shí)，大眾對這種能力的認(rèn)可也顯而易見。一周內(nèi)有100萬人使用；兩個(gè)月內(nèi)有1億用戶。

It was soon being used to generate school essays and wedding speeches.
它很快就被用于生成學(xué)校論文和婚禮演講稿等方面。

ChatGPT’s popularity, and Microsoft’s move to incorporate it into Bing, its search engine, prompted rival firms to release chatbots too.
ChatGPT的流行以及微軟將其整合到其搜索引擎“必應(yīng)”的舉措，促使競爭對手公司也發(fā)布了聊天機(jī)器人。

[Paragraph 7]
Some of these produced strange results. Bing Chat suggested to a journalist that he should leave his wife.
其中有些AI生成了奇怪的結(jié)果。必應(yīng)聊天機(jī)器人建議記者應(yīng)該離開他的妻子。

ChatGPT has been accused of defamation by a law professor. LLMs produce answers that have the patina of truth, but often contain factual errors or outright fabrications.
ChatGPT被一名法學(xué)教授指控為誹謗。大型語言模型產(chǎn)生的答案看起來具有真實(shí)的外衣，但實(shí)際上經(jīng)常包含與事實(shí)不相符或完全胡編亂造的內(nèi)容。

Even so, Microsoft, Google and other tech firms have begun to incorporate LLMs into their products, to help users create documents and perform other tasks.
即便如此，微軟、谷歌和其他科技公司已經(jīng)開始將大型語言模型整合到他們的產(chǎn)品，以幫助用戶創(chuàng)建文檔和執(zhí)行其他任務(wù)。

[Paragraph 8]

The recent acceleration in both the power and visibility of AI systems, and growing awareness of their abilities and defects, have raised fears that the technology is now advancing so quickly that it cannot be safely controlled.

最近，AI系統(tǒng)的算力和知名度都在加速發(fā)展，人們對其能力和缺陷的認(rèn)識也在不斷提高，這引發(fā)了人們對該技術(shù)發(fā)展如此之快以至于無法安全控制的擔(dān)憂。

Hence the call for a pause, and growing concern that AI could threaten not just jobs, factual accuracy and reputations, but the existence of humanity itself.
因此人們呼吁暫停，而且人們越來越擔(dān)心人工智能不僅會(huì)威脅到工作、事實(shí)的準(zhǔn)確性和聲譽(yù)，還會(huì)威脅到人類自身的生存。

[Paragraph 9]

Extinction? Rebellion?

滅亡？叛亂？

The fear that machines will steal jobs is centuries old. But so far new technology has created new jobs to replace the ones it has destroyed.

人們對機(jī)器會(huì)搶走工作的擔(dān)憂由來已久。但到目前為止，新技術(shù)已經(jīng)創(chuàng)造了新的工作崗位，以取代它所破壞的工作。

Machines tend to be able to perform some tasks, not others, increasing demand for people who can do the jobs machines cannot.

機(jī)器往往能夠完成一些任務(wù)，而不能完成一些其他任務(wù)，這增加了人們對于那些機(jī)器無法勝任工作的需求。

Could this time be different? A sudden dislocation in job markets cannot be ruled out, even if so far there is no sign of one.

這次會(huì)有所不同嗎？盡管到目前為止就業(yè)市場還沒有出現(xiàn)突然混亂的跡象，但不能排除這種情況的可能性。

Previous technology has tended to replace unskilled tasks, but LLMs can perform some white-collar tasks, such as summarising documents and writing code.

以前的科技傾向于取代體力工作，但大型語言模型可以做一些腦力工作，例如總結(jié)文件和編寫代碼。

（恭喜讀完，本篇英語詞匯量709/1406左右）
原文出自：2023年4月22日《The Economist》Leaders版塊。

精讀筆記來源于：自由英語之路

本文翻譯整理: Irene

本文編輯校對: Irene
僅供個(gè)人英語學(xué)習(xí)交流使用。

【補(bǔ)充資料】（來自于網(wǎng)絡(luò)）
Future of Life Institute（未來生命研究所）是一個(gè)非營利組織，成立于2014年，總部位于美國馬薩諸塞州劍橋市。其使命是通過推動(dòng)智能、機(jī)器人和其他新興技術(shù)的研究和發(fā)展，確保這些技術(shù)對人類和全球環(huán)境的長期利益產(chǎn)生積極影響。該機(jī)構(gòu)由一群科學(xué)家和企業(yè)家共同創(chuàng)立，包括物理學(xué)家Max Tegmark、Elon Musk等知名人士。該機(jī)構(gòu)致力于推進(jìn)相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究，制定政策和道德準(zhǔn)則，以確保人工智能和相關(guān)技術(shù)的安全性、透明度和可控性，并在公眾中提高對這些新興技術(shù)的認(rèn)知度和理解。

大型語言模型（Large Language Model）是一種基于深度學(xué)習(xí)的自然語言處理技術(shù)。它是由大規(guī)模文本數(shù)據(jù)集訓(xùn)練出來的能夠生成自然語言文本的模型。這些模型可以接受一個(gè)輸入，并根據(jù)其內(nèi)部權(quán)重和結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生一個(gè)輸出結(jié)果，通常是一段人類可讀的文本。目前最知名的大型語言模型之一是OpenAI的GPT系列模型（Generative Pre-trained Transformer）。GPT模型以Transformer架構(gòu)為基礎(chǔ)，通過預(yù)訓(xùn)練數(shù)據(jù)來學(xué)習(xí)語言模型。在預(yù)訓(xùn)練中，模型被暴露給大量的文本數(shù)據(jù)，從而學(xué)習(xí)到單詞和短語之間的關(guān)系，以及語言的其他特征。然后，通過對任務(wù)特定的微調(diào)，例如生成文本、問答或機(jī)器翻譯等，GPT模型可以產(chǎn)生高質(zhì)量的自然語言文本，并在多個(gè)領(lǐng)域取得了令人印象深刻的成果。

【重點(diǎn)句子】（3個(gè)）
It is the most prominent example yet of how rapid progress in AI has sparked anxiety about the potential dangers of the technology.
這是迄今為止最突出的例子，說明人工智能的快速發(fā)展已經(jīng)引發(fā)了對該技術(shù)潛在危險(xiǎn)的擔(dān)憂。

These models stand to transform humans’ relationship with computers, knowledge and even with themselves.
這些模型將改變?nèi)祟惻c計(jì)算機(jī)、知識、甚至與人類自身的關(guān)系。

The fear that machines will steal jobs is centuries old. But so far new technology has created new jobs to replace the ones it has destroyed.
人們對機(jī)器會(huì)搶走工作的擔(dān)憂由來已久。但到目前為止，新技術(shù)已經(jīng)創(chuàng)造了新的工作崗位，以取代它所破壞的工作。