The new rules? ---?A changed world

International commerce needs firmer underpinnings

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WHAT IS THE biggest threat to world trade? Stressed supply-chain managers might say new logistical bottlenecks that have seen the cost of shipping rocket recently.?Macroeconomists could offer demand change, notably the depressive effect of a possible renewed pandemic. But those taking a longer view might point to the new order of trade policy, which involves more intimidation, discrimination and ultimately, isolation. In short, the very foundations of the multilateral trading system are under assault, from several directions at once.

Intimidation?/?n?t?m??de??n/恫嚇，威脅

Some of this reflects adaptation to changed political objectives, such as new concerns to respond to human-rights abuses or to climate change. A?back-of-the-envelope calculation based on estimates by the OECD suggests that a carbon tariff based on a CO2 price of $75 a tonne may represent an average extra cost of only around 2%. That seems manageable. When the risk of shocks is rising, whether from natural disasters, pandemics or the willingness of foreigners to weaponise?their economic clout, it makes sense to work up strategies for coping. That could mean diversification through trade deals, constructive co-ordination over standards, or sensible stockpiling.

back-of-the-envelope：粗略的，大概的，不精確的（計(jì)算）

clout /kla?t/ 1.影響力；勢(shì)力?political/financial clout 政治╱經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)力2.（用手或硬物的）擊，打

stockpile ?/?st?kpa?l/ ?囤聚的物資?the world's stockpile of nuclear weapons 全世界的核武器儲(chǔ)備；動(dòng)詞：大量?jī)?chǔ)備

But as well-intentioned?governments try to co-ordinate new ways to add non-trade goals to commerce, the risk of mismanagement or the proliferation of special interests is high.?Economic nationalism crafted behind trade barriers could coddle companies,?impede technology transfer or limit the profits available for research and development. Subsidies could distort trade flows and generate tensions between allies as they fight over who should bear the cost?of supply that is greater than demand.?Over the long run, the extra anxiety around international supply chains could mean that national borders come to matter more in practice than they should do in theory.

Coddle?v. /?k?dl/嬌慣；嬌養(yǎng)；溺愛(ài)

Impede?v. /?m?pi?d/阻礙；阻止 Work on the building was impeded by severe weather. 樓房的施工因天氣惡劣而停了下來(lái)。

Push all this to its limits,?and there is a risk that the forces of globalisation could even go into reverse. That supply chains now so often criss-cross international borders actually raises the cost of trade barriers.?If the EU had cut off vaccine exports to Britain in early 2021 amid a heated row over scarce supplies, it might have?jeopardized crucial inputs for its own production.?But that could be changing. Reshoring supply chains may,?ironically, increase the likelihood of new trade barriers in future as it makes them less costly. And that could raise the incentive to start unraveling today's close economic relationships.

Reshoring supply chains ：指的是供應(yīng)鏈遷回國(guó)內(nèi)，供應(yīng)鏈“回流”

unravel ?v. /?n?r?vl/ 1.（把纏或織在一起的線）解開(kāi)，拆散，松開(kāi)??I unravelled the string and wound it into a ball. 我把繩子解開(kāi)并繞成一個(gè)球。2.( 系統(tǒng)、計(jì)劃、關(guān)系等 ) 解體；崩潰；瓦解；3.闡釋；說(shuō)明；澄清；變得清楚易懂???The discovery will help scientists unravel the mystery of the Ice Age. 這一發(fā)現(xiàn)將有助于科學(xué)家揭開(kāi)冰川時(shí)代的奧秘。?

?譯文

WHAT IS THE biggest threat to world trade? Stressed supply-chain managers might say new logistical bottlenecks that have seen the cost of shipping rocket recently.?Macroeconomists could offer demand change, notably the depressive effect of a possible renewed pandemic. But those taking a longer view might point to the new order of trade policy, which involves more intimidation, discrimination and ultimately, isolation. In short, the very foundations of the multilateral trading system are under assault, from several directions at once.

對(duì)全球貿(mào)易而言，最大的威脅是什么？倍感壓力的供應(yīng)鏈經(jīng)理會(huì)說(shuō)是最近出現(xiàn)的物流瓶頸，它導(dǎo)致了全球航運(yùn)成本飆升。宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可能說(shuō)是需求變化，尤其是可能再次爆發(fā)的疫情帶來(lái)的抑制效應(yīng)。但那些考慮長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的人可能會(huì)認(rèn)為是貿(mào)易新秩序，它帶來(lái)威脅、歧視以及最終的孤立。一言以蔽之，多邊貿(mào)易系統(tǒng)的基層正在遭受多方位同時(shí)襲擊。

Some of this reflects adaptation to changed political objectives, such as new concerns to respond to human-rights abuses or to climate change. A?back-of-the-envelope calculation based on estimates by the OECD suggests that a carbon tariff based on a CO2 price of $75 a tonne may represent an average extra cost of only around 2%. That seems manageable. When the risk of shocks is rising, whether from natural disasters, pandemics or the willingness of foreigners to weaponise?their economic clout, it makes sense to work up strategies for coping. That could mean diversification through trade deals, constructive co-ordination over standards, or sensible stockpiling.

有些反映了對(duì)已經(jīng)改變的政治目標(biāo)的適應(yīng)。比如對(duì)人權(quán)濫用和氣候變化的新關(guān)注。基于經(jīng)合組織估算的粗略計(jì)算表明，以每噸75美元的二氧化碳價(jià)格為基礎(chǔ)的碳關(guān)稅可能只代表大約2%的平均額外成本，這看起來(lái)具有可控性。當(dāng)沖擊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加時(shí)，不論是自然災(zāi)害、疫情或者是外國(guó)人武裝自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)力，都讓建立自己的對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)策略變得有意義。這些對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)策略可能意味著通過(guò)貿(mào)易協(xié)議實(shí)現(xiàn)多樣化，在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方面進(jìn)行建設(shè)性的協(xié)調(diào)，或明智的儲(chǔ)備。

But as well-intentioned?governments try to co-ordinate new ways to add non-trade goals to commerce, the risk of mismanagement or the proliferation of special interests is high.?Economic nationalism crafted behind trade barriers could coddle companies,?impede technology transfer or limit the profits available for research and development. Subsidies could distort trade flows and generate tensions between allies as they fight over who should bear the cost?of supply that is greater than demand.?Over the long run, the extra anxiety around international supply chains could mean that national borders come to matter more in practice than they should do in theory.

但是，隨著政府出于好意嘗試協(xié)調(diào)新方式將非貿(mào)易目標(biāo)添加到商業(yè)中(up:這個(gè)“好意的新方式”有可能是關(guān)于國(guó)際碳排放指標(biāo)的購(gòu)買(mǎi)），管理不善或特殊利益擴(kuò)散的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變得很高。貿(mào)易壁壘背后巧妙隱蔽的經(jīng)濟(jì)民族主義可能會(huì)縱容企業(yè)、阻礙技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓或限制可用于研發(fā)的利潤(rùn)。補(bǔ)貼可能扭曲貿(mào)易流動(dòng)，并在盟國(guó)之間引發(fā)緊張關(guān)系，因?yàn)樗鼈儠?huì)為誰(shuí)應(yīng)該承擔(dān)高于需求的供應(yīng)成本而爭(zhēng)吵。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，圍繞國(guó)際供應(yīng)鏈的額外焦慮可能意味著國(guó)界在實(shí)踐中比理論上更重要。

Push all this to its limits,?and there is a risk that the forces of globalisation could even go into reverse. That supply chains now so often criss-cross international borders actually raises the cost of trade barriers. If the EU had cut off vaccine exports to Britain in early 2021 amid a heated row over scarce supplies, it might have?jeopardized crucial inputs for its own production.?But that could be changing. Reshoring supply chains may,?ironically, increase the likelihood of new trade barriers in future as it makes them less costly. And that could raise the incentive to start unraveling today's close economic relationships.

把這一切推到極限，全球化的力量甚至有可能逆轉(zhuǎn)。如今經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)跨越國(guó)際邊界的供應(yīng)鏈危機(jī)實(shí)際上增加了貿(mào)易壁壘成本。如果歐盟在2021年初因疫苗供應(yīng)不足而發(fā)生激烈爭(zhēng)吵，切斷對(duì)英國(guó)的疫苗出口，可能會(huì)危及歐盟自身生產(chǎn)的關(guān)鍵原料進(jìn)口。但這種情況可能改變。具有諷刺意味的是，供應(yīng)鏈回流可能會(huì)增加未來(lái)出現(xiàn)新貿(mào)易壁壘的可能性，因?yàn)樗屝沦Q(mào)易壁壘出現(xiàn)的代價(jià)降低。這可能會(huì)促使人們開(kāi)始瓦解目前密切的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系。