passage5

注解：標(biāo)題為紅色，翻譯為藍(lán)色，分析為綠色。

? ? ? ?Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as "steering the economy to a soft landing"or "a touch on the brakes", makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen,a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.? ?

? ? ? ? Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.

? ? ? ? ??It is also less than most forecasters had predicted.【第27題】?In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.【第29題】

? ? ? ? ? ? ?Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America's, have little productive slack.America's capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment——the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.【第28題】

? ? ? ? ? ?Why has inflation proved so mild? 【第30題】The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately,a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.

一、文章結(jié)構(gòu)分析

? ? ? ? 這是一篇關(guān)于美國及其他發(fā)達(dá)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的文章。這些國家都持續(xù)保持了較低的通貨膨脹率，這一點出乎經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)料。

? ? ? ? 第一段：通過類比論證，說明貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響難以預(yù)測。

? ? ? ? ?第二段至第四段：筆鋒一轉(zhuǎn)，指出盡管有諸多不利因素，各國的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢卻令人滿意，通貨膨脹率低于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)測。該部分用了大量數(shù)據(jù)證明。

? ? ? ? ?第五段：分析該現(xiàn)象的原因，即經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹相聯(lián)系的舊經(jīng)濟(jì)模式的結(jié)束。

27.From the passage we learn that.

[A]there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates

[B]economy will always follow certain models

[C]the economic situation is better than expected

[D]economists had foreseen the present economic situation

27.從文章中，我們可以得知。

［A］通貨膨脹和利率之間有明確的聯(lián)系

［B］經(jīng)濟(jì)總會遵循某種模式

［C］經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢比預(yù)料的要好

［D］經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家已經(jīng)預(yù)見到了目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況

【

The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain?通貨膨脹和利率之間具有不確定性。故A選項錯誤。

根據(jù)原文，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論知識沒有正確預(yù)測將來的經(jīng)濟(jì)形式。也就是經(jīng)濟(jì)不會總是遵循某種模式，并且最后一段，Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up-ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.現(xiàn)在的經(jīng)濟(jì)形式推翻了舊的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式的理論，也就意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)的模式是不斷的演化，而不是總是遵循某種模式。故B選項錯誤。

第二段，central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late。中央行長對于經(jīng)濟(jì)形式覺得值得炫耀。故經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢比預(yù)料的要好。C.選項正確。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)情況會比較壞，但是實際是情況要比預(yù)測的好，故D.選項錯誤。

】

28. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?

[A]Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car.

[B]An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation.

[C]A high unemployment rate will result from inflation.

[D]Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy.

28.根據(jù)文章內(nèi)容，下面哪項陳述正確？

［A］把制定貨幣政策比作開車。

［B］特別低的失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。

［C］通貨膨脹會導(dǎo)致高失業(yè)率。

［D］利率直接而快速地影響經(jīng)濟(jì)。

【

對于A選項，把制定貨幣政策比作開車，而原文是the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen,a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel?貨幣政策的制定比作是駕駛一輛汽車，這輛車擋風(fēng)玻璃被涂黑了、后視鏡裂了，方向盤也失靈了。故A選項錯誤在了：沒有對車作進(jìn)一步的限定詞。A選項錯誤。

對于B選項。its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment——the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.其失業(yè)率（8月份為5.6%）已低于大多數(shù)人對自然失業(yè)率的估計——過去失業(yè)率低于這個數(shù)字的時候，通貨膨脹率早已開始上升。故特別低的失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。B選項正確。

對于C選項。原文說低失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹，沒有說通貨膨脹會導(dǎo)致低失業(yè)率。C選項錯誤。

對于D選項。The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain?通貨膨脹和利率之間具有不確定性。D選項錯誤。

】

29. The sentence "This is no flash in the pan"

(line 5, paragraph 3) means that.

[A] the low inflation rate will last for some time

[B] the inflation rate will soon rise

[C] the inflation will disappear quickly

[D] there is no inflation at present

29.“This is no flash in the pan”（3段5行）的意思是。

［A］低通貨膨脹率會持續(xù)一段時間

［B］通貨膨脹率很快會提高

［C］通貨膨脹率很快會消失

［D］目前沒有通貨膨脹率

【

不是曇花一現(xiàn)。

This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.

這不是曇花一現(xiàn)；在過去幾年里，英國和美國的通貨膨脹率始終低于預(yù)測水平。

也就是說低通貨膨脹率會持續(xù)一段時間。故選A。A選項正確。

】

30.The passage shows that the author isthe present situation.

[A]critical of

[B]puzzled by

[C] disappointed at

[D] amazed at

30.文章表明作者對目前現(xiàn)狀的態(tài)度是

［A］批評的

［B］迷惑不解的

［C］失望的

［D］驚奇的

【

作者對經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對經(jīng)濟(jì)情況的預(yù)測是壞的結(jié)果，而實際的經(jīng)濟(jì)形式是好的結(jié)果。作者對目前現(xiàn)狀的態(tài)度應(yīng)該是驚奇的。

特別是在第四段Economists have been particularly surprised?by favourable inflation figures，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示的surprised，其實也是表明作者的驚奇。

故D選項正確。

】

二、核心詞匯與超綱詞匯

（1）analogy（n.）比擬，類比

（2）faulty（a.）有過失的，有缺點的，不完美的；fault：（n.）過失，過錯；缺點

（3）forecast（v./n.）預(yù)測，預(yù)報

（4）inflation（n.）通貨膨脹

（5）poll（n.）民意測驗

（6）slack（a.）懈怠的，懶散的，松弛的，不緊的；蕭條的；（n.）淡季，蕭條；（pl.）便褲，運動褲

（7）steer（v.）駕駛，掌舵

（8）thrilling（a.）令人震驚的；thrill（n.）令人激動的事；（v.）使激動，使興奮；使毛骨悚然

（9）up-end（v.）顛倒，倒放；推翻，打倒

（10）utilization/utilisation（n.）利用

三、閱讀答案：C B A D

四、全文翻譯：

? ? ? ?很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，如“引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”，“觸動經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，使貨幣政策聽起來像是一門精確的科學(xué)。事實遠(yuǎn)非如此。利率和通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系難以確定。在政策改變對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響之前，會有一段較長時間且變化不定的后滯期。因此，才會有人將貨幣政策的制定比作是駕駛一輛汽車，這輛車擋風(fēng)玻璃被涂黑了、后視鏡裂了，方向盤也失靈了。

? ? ? ?盡管有這么多不利因素，中央銀行家們似乎對近來之形勢有了不少值得夸耀的東西。西方七大工業(yè)國去年的平均通貨膨脹降至僅2.3%，接近三十年來的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5%。這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于許多國家在70年代和80年代早期經(jīng)歷的兩位數(shù)的膨脹率。

? ? ? ?這也低于許多預(yù)測者預(yù)測的數(shù)字。1994年底，每月接受《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》意見調(diào)查的一組經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，美國在1995年的平均通貨膨脹率將達(dá)到3.5%。實際上，8月份就降到了2.6%，而且有望全年僅為3%。去年年底，英國和日本的通貨膨脹率實際上比預(yù)測的要低半個百分點。這不是曇花一現(xiàn)；在過去幾年里，英國和美國的通貨膨脹率始終低于預(yù)測水平。

? ? ? ? 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對英美兩國有利的通脹率特別感到詫異，因為傳統(tǒng)的計量方法表明兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎沒有出現(xiàn)生產(chǎn)蕭條。比如，美國的生產(chǎn)力利用率在今年早些時候達(dá)到了歷史最高水平，失業(yè)率（八月份為5.6%）已降到低于很多人對自然失業(yè)率的估測——過去，當(dāng)比率低于自然失業(yè)率時，通貨膨脹率早已迅速上升。

? ? ? ? 為何通貨膨脹如此和緩？可惜的是，即使是最令人興奮的解釋也會有小的缺陷。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)強(qiáng)有力的變化已經(jīng)推翻了以往那種以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹率的歷史關(guān)聯(lián)為基礎(chǔ)的舊有的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。

五、地毯式總結(jié)

monetary policy 貨幣政策

steering the economy to a soft landing 引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)軟著陸

a touch on the brakes 觸動經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車

make it sound like a precise science 讓它聽起來像一門精確的科學(xué)

Nothing could be further from the truth 沒有什么比這更離譜的了

variable lag 可變滯后

policy change 政策變動

Hence 因此

the analogy 類比

liken 把…比作

driving a car with a blackened windscreen,a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel 駕駛擋風(fēng)玻璃變黑、后視鏡破裂、方向盤有故障的汽車

Given all these disadvantages 考慮到所有這些缺點

central banker 央行行長

seem to have had much to boast about of late 最近似乎有很多值得夸耀的地方

Average inflation 平均通貨膨脹率

rising slightly to 2.5% 略有上升至2.5%

It is also less than most forecasters had predicted 這也低于大多數(shù)預(yù)測者的預(yù)測

the panel of economist 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家小組

The Economist polls 《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》民意調(diào)查

This is no flash in the pan 這不是曇花一現(xiàn)

over the past couple of years 在過去的幾年里

favourable inflation figures 有利的通貨膨脹數(shù)字

conventional measure 常規(guī)措施

productive slack 生產(chǎn)蕭條,生產(chǎn)不景氣

capacity utilisation 產(chǎn)能利用率

its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment——the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.

其失業(yè)率（8月份為5.6%）已低于大多數(shù)人對自然失業(yè)率的估計——過去失業(yè)率低于這個數(shù)字的時候，通貨膨脹率早已開始上升。

thrilling explanation 激動人心的解釋

a little defective 有點缺陷

structural change 結(jié)構(gòu)變化

up-end 顛倒,推翻

economic models 經(jīng)濟(jì)模型

historical link between growth and inflation 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與通貨膨脹之間的歷史聯(lián)系