文章來源：《經(jīng)濟學人》Apr 15th 2023 期 Business欄目 Food producers

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For years nutritionists have advised Americans to steer clear of grocery shops’?central aisles and instead fill their?trolleys?from the outlying shelves.?Fresh meat, dairy products, fresh fruit and vegetables often line?supermarket walls; cans, boxes and other packages of less?salubrious?processed food are stacked in the middle.?Some shoppers have?heeded?that advice: sales of canned soup have been?lacklustre?in recent times, even as those of fresher refrigerated?potages?have grown.?Now makers of the packaged stuff are staging a comeback. This says as much about shifting economic conditions as it does about products on shelves.

多年來，營養(yǎng)學家一直建議美國人避開雜貨店的中央過道，而是從外圍貨架上購買商品。鮮肉、奶制品、新鮮水果和蔬菜經(jīng)常排列在超市的外圍貨架上；而不太健康的罐裝、盒裝、包裝等加工食品則堆放在中間貨架上。一些購物者已經(jīng)聽從了這個建議：近來罐裝湯的銷量一直低迷，而新鮮冷藏湯的銷量卻在增長。現(xiàn)在，包裝食品的制造商正在卷土重來。貨架上的產(chǎn)品反映了經(jīng)濟狀況的變化。

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This month Conagra, which owns brands including Orville Redenbacher’s popcorn, Bird’s Eye frozen veg and Duncan Hines cake mixes, reported bumper results for its latest quarter. Sales and margins were all up year on year.?The company expects higher earnings in the fiscal year to May than it had previously forecast.?A few weeks earlier General Mills, which?peddles?canned soups, frozen vegetables and breakfast cereals, unveiled similarly juicy quarterly numbers.?McCormick & Company, which sells spices and sauces, and the J.M. Smucker Company, best known for jams and peanut butter, are likewise having a sweet time of it.?Investors are?licking their lips: Conagra’s share price has risen by 8% in the past 12 months, compared with a decline of 7% for the S&P 500 index of large American firms. General Mills’ has shot up by 23%.

康尼格拉擁有黃油爆米花、鳥之眼冷凍蔬菜和鄧肯·海恩斯蛋糕粉等品牌。本月，它公布了最新季度報告，業(yè)績亮眼，銷售額和利潤均同比增長。該公司預計截至 5 月的財年收益將高于此前的預期。通用磨坊是銷售罐頭湯、冷凍蔬菜和早餐麥片的公司，幾周前，它公布了同樣亮眼的季度業(yè)績報告。麥考密克是銷售香料和調味品的公司，J.M斯馬克公司以果醬和花生醬聞名，這兩家公司業(yè)績也亮眼。投資者們收獲頗豐：康尼格拉股價在過去12個月中上漲了8%，而大型美國公司標普500指數(shù)下跌了7%。通用磨坊的股價上漲了23%。

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For America’s packaged-food firms, the past decade was a cycle of famine and feast.?Lean years before the pandemic ended when restaurants closed amid covid-19 and people stocked their pantries.?Stimulus cheques from the government meant that shoppers were flush and the food companies were not being nagged by their retail partners to offer discounts.?Then in 2022 people began dining out again, putting pressure on volumes even as commodity-price shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed up costs.

對于美國包裝食品公司來說，過去十年是饑荒年和豐收年的循環(huán)。艱苦歲月是疫情結束之前的幾年，那時候餐廳因疫情關閉，人們囤積了食品。政府發(fā)放的刺激消費券意味著購物者手頭寬裕，而且食品公司也沒有被他們的零售合作伙伴嘮叨著要提供折扣。然后是2022年，人們開始再次外出就餐，加上俄烏戰(zhàn)造成的大宗商品價格沖擊推高了成本，這對銷量造成了壓力。

As big food’s results show, the industry is managing to ride out the latest?tumult.?For one thing, the pandemic may have altered consumer habits, leading to a lasting bump in the consumption of frozen and packaged meals.?Americans are still eating more meals at home than they were before the first covid-19 lockdowns.?According to EY, a consultancy, nearly three in four consumers anyway do not carefully distinguish frozen vegetables from the fresh sort, treating them as the same category.?And though inflation is leading shoppers to trade down from branded products to retailers’ cheaper private-label offerings when buying things like cosmetics or home goods, they are still happy to pay a bit extra for premium grub;?20- and 30-somethings in particular seem readier to spend larger shares of their income on food and are less likely to trade down than their elders.

美國大型食品公司的業(yè)績表明，該行業(yè)正在設法渡過最近的動蕩期。一方面，疫情可能已經(jīng)改變了消費者的習慣，導致冷凍和包裝食品的消費量持續(xù)增長。與第一次疫情相比，美國人現(xiàn)在在家里吃飯的次數(shù)更多。根據(jù)安永咨詢公司的數(shù)據(jù)，近3/4的消費者并不會仔細區(qū)分冷凍蔬菜和新鮮蔬菜，消費者將它們視為同一類別。另一方面，盡管通貨膨脹導致購物者在購買化妝品或家居用品等物品時從高檔品牌產(chǎn)品轉向零售商更便宜的自營品牌，但他們仍然愿意為優(yōu)質食品支付更高的價格；尤其是二三十歲的年輕人似乎更愿意將更多的錢花在食物上，而且與年長者相比，他們不太可能消費降級。

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The food giants also benefit from a diverse range of products and brands, which they are adapting to changing consumer tastes.?Conagra has introduced“crustless pizzas”—microwavable boxes of sauce, cheese and meat—to appeal to the?carb-phobic.?Its vegan Power Bowls seem?tailor-made?for the avocado-loving yoga crowd.?General Mills is marketing cereal as an after-school snack and alternative to dessert in the evening, rather than just something to?munch?for breakfast.?And although they managed to maintain or even expand their margins by raising prices in line with their costs or faster, they might be all too content to take advantage of cheaper inputs without?concomitant?price cuts.

食品巨頭還受益于多樣化的產(chǎn)品和品牌，它們正在適應不斷變化的消費者口味?？的岣窭瞥隽恕盁o皮披薩”——可放在微波爐里加熱的醬料、奶酪和肉的盒子--以吸引那些低碳水化合物飲食的人群。其純素食“能量碗”似乎是為愛吃鱷梨的瑜伽人群量身定制的。通用磨坊將麥片作為課后零食和晚上甜點的替代品來營銷，而不僅限于當作早餐食品。盡管他們成功做到了根據(jù)成本來快速提高價格，以維持甚至擴大利潤率，但他們可能太自滿而沒有采用“減量不減價”的策略。

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Can the good times last??The biggest question-mark hangs over sales volumes, which could be crimped by those higher prices and a looming economic slowdown that may prompt shoppers to start?pinching pennies.?If wage growth slows or unemployment ticks up, at some point people will probably cut back even on smaller luxuries.?Should one food firm decide to trim prices in an effort to boost volumes at its competitors’ expense, an old-fashioned price war may erupt.?For the time being, though, the foodmakers will keep reaping the peace dividend.

好時光能否持續(xù)很久？最大的問號在銷量上，價格上漲和日益臨近的經(jīng)濟放緩可能會抑制銷量，這可能會促使購物者開始節(jié)約用錢。如果工資增長放緩或失業(yè)率上升，到某個時候人們可能會削減小型奢侈品的消費。如果一家食品公司決定降低價格，以犧牲競爭對手的利益來增加銷量，則可能引起一輪價格戰(zhàn)。不過，就目前而言，食品制造商繼續(xù)收獲和平紅利。