Adapting for the future 適應(yīng)未來

What the world can learn from Japan

The oldest big country has lessons for those that will soon age and shrink

第一段：

Two tales are often told about Japan. The first is of a nation in decline, with a shrinking and ageing population, sapped of its vitality. The second is of an alluring, hyper-functional, somewhat eccentric society—a nice place to eat sushi or explore strange subcultures, but of little wider relevance to the outside world. Both tales lead people to dismiss Japan. That is a mistake.

關(guān)于日本，人們通常會想到兩個說法。一是日本正在經(jīng)歷人口萎縮和老齡化，社會活力不如從前；二是日本社會有吸引力、功能超全，甚至于有點古怪：日本是個品嘗壽司、探索新穎亞文化的好地方，但它與外部世界沒有更為廣泛的聯(lián)系。這兩個說法讓人們對日本不屑一顧，然而，這是一個錯誤的決定。

第二段：

As our special report this week argues, Japan is not an outlier—it is a harbinger. Many of the challenges it faces already affect other countries, or soon will, including rapid ageing, secular stagnation, the risk of natural disasters, and the peril of being caught between China and America. The fact that some of these problems hit Japan early makes it a useful laboratory for observing their effects and working out how to respond.

正如《經(jīng)濟學人》本周的特別報道所指出的一樣，日本并不是例外，更像是一個先兆。日本面臨的快速老齡化、經(jīng)濟長期停滯、自然災(zāi)害風險以及夾在中美之間等諸多挑戰(zhàn)影響或即將影響其他國家。日本很早就遇到了這些問題，因此，觀察這些問題的影響并研究如何應(yīng)對，其他國家則可加以借鑒。

第三段：

One lesson is that societies must learn to live with risk. As the climate changes and natural hazards proliferate, countries must be able to bounce back from shocks. Painful experience has led Japan to invest in resilience. Bridges and buildings are retro fitted to make them earthquake-proof. After a big quake hit Kobe in 1995, leaving many without water, the city built an underground system to store 12 days’ supply for residents.

日本的一個教訓是社會必須學會與風險共存。隨著氣候變化和自然災(zāi)害的增加，各國必須具備災(zāi)害恢復能力。以往痛苦的經(jīng)歷使得日本在工程韌性投入。為了抗震，日本的橋梁和建筑物都進行了改造。1995年神戶地區(qū)發(fā)生大地震后，很多人都缺水，因此，神戶市內(nèi)建立了一個地下系統(tǒng)，可以為居民儲存12天的飲用水。

第三段：

Many Japanese people understand that responding to disasters is everyone’s problem, not just the state’s. That has helped during the pandemic: mask-wearing has been virtually universal. Among g7 countries, Japan has the lowest death rate from covid-19 and the highest rate of double-vaccination.

許多日本人明白，應(yīng)對災(zāi)難是每個人的責任，而不僅僅是政府的義務(wù)。這種觀念讓人們在新冠疫情期間普遍戴起口罩。在七國集團中，日本的新冠肺炎死亡率最低，雙針疫苗接種率最高。

第四段：

Another lesson is that demography matters. Most societies will ultimately age and shrink like Japan. By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over 65 years old, up from one in 11 in 2019. The populations of 55 countries, including China, are projected to decline between now and 2050. Recent data suggest India will shrink sooner than expected.

另一個教訓是人口因素的重要性。大多數(shù)社會最終都會像日本一樣出現(xiàn)老齡化和人口減少情況。到2050年，世界上六分之一的人都將超過65歲，而2019年這一比例為十一分之一。從現(xiàn)在到2050年，包括中國在內(nèi)的55個國家的人口預(yù)計將會減少。最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度人口減少的速度將超過預(yù)期水平。

第五段：

Like climate change, the demographic sort is vast, gradual and seems abstract—until it is not. And like climate change, it will demand a transformation both of institutions and of individual behaviour. Remaining active for longer is essential. The Japanese government urges firms to keep staff until they are 70. Many stay on: 33% of 70- to 74 -year-olds now have jobs, up from 23% a decade ago.

就像氣候變化一樣，人口要素是龐大的而逐漸顯現(xiàn)，看起來似乎很抽象，直到它具象化。就像氣候變化一樣，人口因素也需要企業(yè)和個人行為發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變，比如，人們保持更長時間的工作很有必要，日本政府還敦促企業(yè)將員工保留至70歲。許多員工都繼續(xù)留任：70至74歲的人中有33%繼續(xù)工作，高于10年前23%的比例。

第六段：

Demographic change brings big economic challenges. Japan owes its sluggish growth in large measure to its shrinking population. If you look at the well-being of individual Japanese people, however, the picture is far rosier. In the decade from 2010 to 2019, Japan enjoyed the third-highest average rate of gdp growth per head in the g7, behind only Germany and America.

人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化帶來了巨大的經(jīng)濟挑戰(zhàn)。日本經(jīng)濟增長緩慢在很大程度上歸因于人口的減少。然而，如果你看一看日本人的個人財富狀況，情況要樂觀得多。從2010年到2019年的十年間，日本的人均gdp增長率在七國集團中排名第三，僅次于德國和美國。

第七段：

Japan is a major creditor and the third-largest economy at current exchange rates. Its people live longer than the citizens of any other country. It is home to the biggest technology investor on the planet, a pioneering 5 g firm, and a host of global brands, from Uniqlo to Nintendo. Expertise in robots and sensors will help its firms make money from a wide range of new industrial technologies. Geopolitically, Japan plays a pivotal role between China, its largest trading partner, and America, its key security partner. It should not, in short, be a global afterthought.

日本是全球主要債權(quán)國，按當前匯率計算，日本也是第三大經(jīng)濟體。相比其他國家，日本人的壽命更長。日本也是世界上最大的技術(shù)投資方，擁有先進的5G企業(yè)，優(yōu)衣庫（Uniqlo）和任天堂（Nintendo）等一系列全球品牌。日本在機器人和傳感器方面的專業(yè)知識將幫助日本企業(yè)從廣泛的新工業(yè)技術(shù)中獲利。在地緣政治方面，日本在其最大貿(mào)易伙伴中國和關(guān)鍵安全伙伴美國之間扮演著關(guān)鍵角色。簡而言之，日本不應(yīng)該被全球忘記。

第八段：

Japan’s mistakes offer another set of lessons. Living with lots of risk makes setting priorities harder. In the face of so many potential hazards, Japan took its eye off climate change, the greatest ongoing disaster of all. In 2020 it at last pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, but the details are sketchy. Politicians pin their hopes on restarting nuclear plants mothballed after the Fukushima meltdown in 2011; this is unlikely as long as the public overestimates the dangers of nuclear power. Many bureaucrats, meanwhile, remain stubbornly sceptical of renewable energy. So Japan keeps burning coal, the filthiest fuel.

日本做的一些錯誤決定也提供了許多其他教訓。生活在風險重重的環(huán)境中會讓你更難分清輕重緩急。面對如此多的潛在危險，日本忽視了氣候變化，而這是所有災(zāi)難中最嚴重的。直到2020年，日本最終承諾到2050年實現(xiàn)碳凈零排放，但具體細節(jié)尚不明確。政客們把希望寄托在重啟2011年福島核泄漏后被封存的核電站上，但要是公眾過度強調(diào)核能的危險性，這個想法就不太可能實現(xiàn)。與此同時，許多日本官員仍對可再生能源秉持頑固的懷疑態(tài)度，所以，日本還在繼續(xù)燃燒最不環(huán)保的燃料——煤。

第九段：

One way to cope with a shrinking population is to get the most out of people. Japan will never live up to its potential while so many of its highly educated citizens are denied the chance to live up to theirs. Seniority-based promotion at traditional companies, combined with excessive deference to grey hairs, silences young voices and stifles innovation. That is why many of the brightest new graduates prefer to work for startups. Japan has done a good job of getting more women into the workforce in recent years, but they still have too few chances to rise. A dual-track labour system traps young people and women in precarious part-time jobs (which, among other things, makes them less keen to have children).

應(yīng)對人口減少現(xiàn)象的一個辦法是充分利用人口。倘若剝奪如此多受過高等教育的日本公民實現(xiàn)自己的潛力的機會，日本也將永遠無法發(fā)揮其潛力。傳統(tǒng)日本企業(yè)靠資歷晉升的機制，再加上對老員工的過分順從，扼殺了年輕人的聲音，也扼殺了年輕人的創(chuàng)新性。這就是許多最聰明的應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生更喜歡為初創(chuàng)公司工作的原因。近年來，日本讓更多女性進入了職場，但她們晉升的機會仍然太少。雙軌制的勞動力系統(tǒng)將年輕人和女性困于不穩(wěn)定的兼職工作中，因此，他們不太愿意要孩子。

第十段：

Politicians tolerate all this in part because they feel little pressure to do otherwise. The Liberal Democratic Party has remained in power almost uninterrupted since 1955, thanks to a pathetically weak opposition. Senior figures, typically old men from political dynasties, are more conservative than the public they supposedly represent. For the public, in turn, today’s comfort dulls the impulse to press for a brighter tomorrow. Japan’s final lesson is about the danger of complacency.

政客們之所以容忍這一切，一個原因是他們并沒有太大的壓力去做出改變。自1955年以來，由于反對黨太過弱小，自民黨長期執(zhí)政。自民黨的高層人物通常是政壇上的“老人”，比他們所代表的公眾更為保守。反過來，對公眾來說，今天的舒適生活也讓他們不再如此熱衷于追求光明未來。因此，日本給世界提供的最后一個教訓是趨于自滿。