The great reversal

巨大的逆轉(zhuǎn)

Covid-19 is undoing years of progress in curbing global poverty

新冠病毒病正在破壞多年來在遏制全球貧困方面取得的進(jìn)展

The number of very poor people was steadily falling; now it is rising fast

極度貧困的人數(shù)曾一直在減少;現(xiàn)在它正在快速上升

May 23rd 2020 | DELHI, KAMPALA AND MEXICO CITY

JANE KABAHUMA has been eating one meal a day since the end of March, when the lockdown began. She used to work in a hotel, but it had to close, along with most businesses in Uganda. She thinks “it will take time” before the work comes back. In five months she is expecting a baby; it may arrive before a job does.

自3月底封鎖開始以來，JANE KABAHUMA每天只吃一頓飯。她曾在一家酒店工作，但這家酒店和烏干達(dá)的大多數(shù)企業(yè)一樣，都不得不關(guān)閉。她認(rèn)為過段時(shí)間就能返工。肚子里的孩子預(yù)期五個(gè)月后生產(chǎn);但照此來看或許到生孩子時(shí)都難以返工。

Her standard of living has plummeted. She used to pay to fill her jerrycans from a clean tap, but these days fetches water from a dirty well, because it is free. She gets by, more or less, with help from friends and family. But for how long?

她的生活水平直線下降。她過去常?；ㄥX從干凈的水龍頭里取水，但現(xiàn)在卻從臟兮兮的井里取水，因?yàn)檫@是免費(fèi)的。她或多或少是在朋友和家人的幫助下度過難關(guān)的。但能持續(xù)多久呢?

詞匯

Jerrycan/油罐

In normal times, people in poor countries have many ways to cope with shocks. If one member of a family falls sick, the others can work longer hours to make up for the lost income. Or they can ask cousins or neighbours for help. Or, if a whole village is impoverished by a bad harvest, they can ask a nephew working in a big city or a foreign country to send some extra cash. All these “coping mechanisms”, as development experts call them, depend on calamity not striking everywhere at once. Alas, covid-19 has done just that.

在正常時(shí)期，貧窮國(guó)家的人們有很多方法來應(yīng)對(duì)沖擊。如果一個(gè)家庭的一個(gè)成員生病了，其他人可以工作更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間來彌補(bǔ)失去的收入?；蛘咚麄兛梢韵虮碛H或鄰居求助?；蛘撸绻麄€(gè)村莊因歉收而貧困，他們可以要求在大城市或外國(guó)工作的侄子寄一些額外的現(xiàn)金。所有這些發(fā)展專家所稱的“應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制”，都依賴于災(zāi)難不會(huì)同時(shí)襲擊所有地方。唉，新冠病毒卻辦到了。

詞匯

Impoverish/使貧窮；使枯竭

Calamity/災(zāi)難；不幸事件

In many places, workers cannot make up for lost income by working harder because demand for their labour has collapsed. Empty restaurants need no waiters; shuttered malls need no mopping; and few motorists are rolling down their windows to buy fruit from street hawkers.

在許多地方，工人們無法通過更努力地工作來彌補(bǔ)失去的收入，因?yàn)閷?duì)他們勞動(dòng)力的需求已經(jīng)崩潰?？詹宛^不需要服務(wù)員;關(guān)門的商場(chǎng)不需要拖地;很少有駕車者會(huì)搖下車窗從街頭小販那里買水果。

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The newly impoverished cannot easily get help from friends or relatives because, no matter where in the world they are, they are all experiencing a simultaneous and massive economic shock. The World Bank predicts that remittances from migrant workers will drop by 20% this year. Male Nepali migrants who are still overseas are now sending back only a quarter of what they were in January. Many send back nothing at all, having returned home.

新貧困的人很難從朋友或親戚那里得到幫助，因?yàn)闊o論他們?cè)谑澜绲哪膫€(gè)地方，他們都在同時(shí)經(jīng)歷著巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊。世界銀行預(yù)測(cè)今年移民工人的匯款將下降20%。仍然在海外的尼泊爾男性移民現(xiàn)在只打款了一月份的四分之一。甚至許多人空手而歸。

詞匯

Remittance/匯款

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Most countries in the developing world still require their citizens to stay at home, except to duck out for essentials. But few of the world’s poorest can work from home. And without work, many cannot eat. Thus, covid-19 imperils one of the greatest achievements of recent decades—the stunning reduction in global poverty.

大多數(shù)發(fā)展中 國(guó)家仍然要求他們的公民呆在家里，除非因一些迫不得已的事項(xiàng)而推辭。但是世界上最窮的人很少能在家工作。沒有工作，許多人就無法吃飯。因此，新冠病毒危及了近幾十年來最偉大的成就之一——大量減少全球貧困人口。

詞匯

duck out/逃避; 推托

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From 1990 until last year the number of extremely poor people—those who subsist on less than $1.90 per day—fell from 2bn, or 36% of the world’s population, to around 630m, or just 8%. Now, for the first time since 1998, that number is rising—very fast. The big questions are: how many millions will slip back into penury? And will they quickly escape again when the pandemic is past, or will its effects be long-lasting, or even permanent?

從1990年到去年，每天生活費(fèi)不足1.9美元的極度貧困人口的數(shù)量從占世界人口36%的20億下降到約6.3億，僅占世界人口的8%。現(xiàn)在，自1998年以來，這個(gè)數(shù)字首次上升——而且非?？臁Ｗ畲蟮膯栴}是:有多少人會(huì)重新陷入貧困?當(dāng)大流行過去后，他們能否快速再次脫貧，還是此次疫情影響將是持久的，甚至是永久性的?

詞匯

slip back/逆流；倒退

penury/貧困；貧窮

The answers to those questions are maddeningly hard to pin down. The World Bank estimates that national lockdowns and the global economic collapse will push at least 49m people into extreme poverty, eliminating nearly all the gains made since 2017. That seems implausibly rosy—the bank’s estimate was based on data published in April. More recent numbers are far gloomier. For example, on May 17th Goldman Sachs estimated that India’s economy is shrinking at an annualised rate of 45%. Andy Sumner of King’s College London estimates that if global income per head falls by 20%, which it may for several months at least, the number of extremely poor people could increase by 420m—as much as the entire population of South America. That would wipe out a decade of gains in the fight against poverty.

這些問題的答案難以確定。世界銀行(World Bank)估計(jì)，國(guó)家封鎖和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰將使至少4900萬人陷入極端貧困，幾乎抵消了自2017年以來取得的所有成就。這似乎讓人很難樂觀看待——世界銀行的估計(jì)是基于4月份公布的數(shù)據(jù)。最近的數(shù)據(jù)更加令人沮喪。例如，5月17日，高盛集團(tuán)估計(jì)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)正以45%的年化速度萎縮。倫敦大學(xué)國(guó)王學(xué)院的Andy Sumner估計(jì)，如果全球人均收入下降20%，極貧人口的數(shù)量可能會(huì)增加4.2億——相當(dāng)于整個(gè)南美洲的人口數(shù)量。這將抹去十年來與貧困作斗爭(zhēng)的成果。

詞匯

Maddeningly/使人惱火地；令人發(fā)狂地

Implausibly/難以置信地

Rosy/美好的，樂觀的

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Many poor countries have copied the kind of lockdowns that have been imposed in rich countries. But the circumstances are utterly different. The well-off are much more likely to have jobs that can be done from home. And workers in rich countries who cannot do their jobs, such as hotel receptionists or waiters, are typically wellsupported by taxpayers.

許多貧窮國(guó)家復(fù)制了富裕國(guó)家實(shí)行的封鎖措施。但情況完全不同。富裕的人更有可能從事在家就能完成的工作。而在富裕國(guó)家，那些不能做好本職工作的工人，比如酒店接待員或服務(wù)員，通常會(huì)得到納稅人的大力支持。

By contrast, when India imposed a strict and dramatic lockdown on March 24th, the 140m people who are estimated to have lost their jobs were suddenly in big trouble. Tens of millions of migrants who had moved from villages to cities suddenly had no income, no way to pay the rent and no trains to take them home, since those were also cancelled. Millions trudged hundreds of kilometres back to their home villages, where their families at least would take them in. The lockdown has been extended to May 31st, with only small adjustments.

相比之下，當(dāng)印度在3月24日實(shí)施嚴(yán)格而又突然的封鎖時(shí)，預(yù)估會(huì)失業(yè)的1.4億人口突然陷入了巨大的困境。數(shù)以千萬計(jì)的從農(nóng)村來到城市的農(nóng)民工突然之間沒有了收入，沒有辦法支付房租，也沒有火車送他們回家，因?yàn)檫@些火車也被取消了。數(shù)百萬人跋涉數(shù)百公里回到他們的家鄉(xiāng)，他們的家人至少會(huì)收留他們。封鎖已經(jīng)延長(zhǎng)到5月31日，但只做了一些小的調(diào)整。

詞匯

Dramatic/突然的

Similar tales of woe are coming from other poor places. Over 80% of Kenyans and Senegalese reported a loss of income in early April. In a study for the University of Manchester, 60 Bangladeshi families have been writing “money diaries”. Before March, about $1,000 a month passed through each household (not all of it income). In April that fell to $300 or so.

其他貧困地區(qū)也有類似的悲慘故事。超過80%的肯尼亞人和塞內(nèi)加爾人在4月初報(bào)告了收入損失。在曼徹斯特大學(xué)的一項(xiàng)研究中，60個(gè)孟加拉家庭寫了“金錢日記”。在3月份之前，每個(gè)家庭每月大約有1000美元的收入(并非其全部收入)。今年4月，收入降為300美元左右。

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In middle-income countries, too, lockdowns have been excruciating. Colombia’s was so tough that it sparked protests in working-class barrios. In Altavista, a neighbourhood near San Salvador, the capital of El Salvador, people have taken to hanging white flags from their windows to show that they have run out of food.

在中等收入國(guó)家，封鎖也很痛苦。哥倫比亞的政策是如此強(qiáng)硬，以至于引發(fā)了工人階級(jí)的抗議。在薩爾瓦多首都圣薩爾瓦多附近的Altavista社區(qū)，人們開始在窗戶上懸掛白旗，表示他們已經(jīng)沒有食物了。

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“Almost overnight people go from having income to having no income,” says Carolina Sánchez-Páramo of the World Bank. Less income often means less food. The World Food Programme (WFP) predicts a doubling of acute hunger by the end of 2020. David Beasely, its boss, worries that the world could see “multiple famines of biblical proportions” within a few months.

世界銀行的Carolina Sánchez-Páramo說:“幾乎一夜之間，人們就從有收入變成沒有收入?！笔杖霚p少往往意味著食物減少。世界糧食計(jì)劃署(WFP)預(yù)測(cè)，到2020年底，嚴(yán)重饑餓人口將翻一番。其總裁David Beasely擔(dān)心在幾個(gè)月內(nèi)世界可能會(huì)發(fā)生“圣經(jīng)意義上的多次饑荒”。

詞匯

Famine/饑荒

Biblical/圣經(jīng)的；依據(jù)圣經(jīng)的

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Health-care systems have been disrupted not only by the virus itself but also by lockdowns, which make it harder for people to seek treatment for other illnesses. A team at Johns Hopkins University calculates that across 118 poor and middle-income countries, disruption to health systems and hunger could kill 1.2m more children and 57,000 mothers over six months. The Stop TB Partnership, an international research group, reckons that in India alone interruptions of diagnosis and treatment from a three-month lockdown, followed by a 10-month recovery period, could cause 500,000 excess deaths from tuberculosis.

衛(wèi)生保健系統(tǒng)不僅受到病毒本身的破壞，還受到封鎖的破壞，這使得人們更難尋求其他疾病的治療。約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)(Johns Hopkins University)的一個(gè)研究小組計(jì)算出，在118個(gè)貧窮和中等收入國(guó)家，衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)的中斷和饑餓可能在6個(gè)月內(nèi)導(dǎo)致120多萬名兒童和5.7萬名母親死亡。國(guó)際研究組織遏制結(jié)核病伙伴關(guān)系(Stop TB Partnership)估計(jì)，僅在印度，由于3個(gè)月的封鎖和10個(gè)月的恢復(fù)期導(dǎo)致的診斷和治療中斷，就可能導(dǎo)致50萬人死于結(jié)核病。

詞匯

TB/肺結(jié)核（tuberculosis）

Diagnosis/診斷

Some kinds of lockdown could cost more lives than they save. A report by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimates that if restrictions prevent vaccinations, in Africa 140 will die for every covid-19 death prevented.

某些類型的封鎖所造成的生命損失可能會(huì)超過它們所挽救的生命。倫敦衛(wèi)生和熱帶醫(yī)學(xué)學(xué)院(London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)的一份報(bào)告估計(jì)，如果限制措施阻止了疫苗接種，在非洲，每阻止一例新冠病毒患者死亡，就會(huì)有140人死亡。

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Even moderate lockdowns can be harmful in very poor countries. The Malawian National Planning Commission and two think-tanks did a cost-benefit analysis of continuing Malawi’s restrictions, which include closing schools, curbing travel and stopping health outreach work. They estimated that the lockdown, if maintained for nine months, would avert 12,000 deaths from covid-19. However, it would also cause more people to go hungry, making them vulnerable to TB and malaria, so the net number of deaths avoided would be roughly half that. And because the victims of coronavirus would be largely old people, whereas the victims of malaria would often be infants, the lockdown would actually cause a net loss of 26,000 years of life.

在非常貧窮的國(guó)家，即使是適度的封鎖也可能是有害的。馬拉維國(guó)家計(jì)劃委員會(huì)和兩個(gè)智庫對(duì)馬拉維繼續(xù)實(shí)行的限制進(jìn)行了成本效益分析，這些限制包括關(guān)閉學(xué)校、限制旅行和停止衛(wèi)生外展工作。他們估計(jì)，如果封鎖持續(xù)9個(gè)月，將避免1.2萬人死于新冠病毒。然而，它也會(huì)導(dǎo)致更多的人挨餓，使他們易受結(jié)核病和瘧疾的侵害，因此避免的凈死亡人數(shù)將大約是這個(gè)數(shù)字的一半。由于冠狀病毒的受害者大部分是老年人，而瘧疾的受害者通常是嬰兒，封鎖實(shí)際上會(huì)導(dǎo)致26,000年的凈壽命損失。

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The lockdown would also leave Malawi $12bn worse off, by stopping people from working and interrupting children’s education, thus dooming them to earn less in the future. That is equivalent to nearly two years’ GDP—an astounding sum. Overall, they estimated that the costs of the lockdown outweighed the benefits by 25 to 1.

封鎖還會(huì)讓馬拉維損失120億美元，因?yàn)檫@會(huì)讓人們停止工作，中斷孩子們的教育，從而讓他們將來掙得更少。這相當(dāng)于近兩年的GDP——一個(gè)驚人的數(shù)字?？偟膩碚f，他們估計(jì)封鎖的成本與收益之比為25比1。

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Such calculations are subject to a wide margin of error. Nonetheless, they explain why many experts think that rich-country style lockdowns are unsustainable in many poor countries.

這種計(jì)算有很大的誤差。盡管如此，它們解釋了為什么許多專家認(rèn)為富國(guó)的封鎖在許多窮國(guó)是不可持續(xù)的。