stocks sell at silly prices from time to time it doesn't take a high IQ to figure

股票有時會以愚蠢的價格出售，不需要高智商就能

out that they're cheap but it does take a temperament that's willing to step up

看出它們很便宜，但確實需要一種愿意站出來

and actually act that day as I'm sure you are all aware is Mr Warren Buffett

并在那天實際行動的氣質(zhì)，我相信你們都知道 沃倫巴菲特先生

the 92 year old Oracle of Omaha he is the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway one of the

是 92 歲的奧馬哈先知，他是

largest companies in the world and the reason most people know his name is

世界上最大的公司之一伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的首席執(zhí)行官，大多數(shù)人知道他的名字的原因是

because he is the world's best investor every year he releases a letter to his

因為他是世界上最好的投資者，他每年都會向他的公司發(fā)表一封信

shareholders where he details the returns of Berkshire Hathaway stock

since he took the reins back in 1965 and get this from then to now he's averaged

自從他于 1965 年重新掌權(quán)以來，他詳細介紹了伯克希爾哈撒韋公司股票的回報率，從那時到現(xiàn)在，他的

20.1 per year while the S P 500 or the market has only averaged ten and a half

平均年回報率為 20.1，而標準普爾 500 指數(shù)或市場的

percent berkshire's Total return over that time is 3.6 million percent versus

平均回報率僅為伯克希爾哈撒韋公司總回報率的 10.5%時間是 360 萬百分比，而

thirty thousand percent of the s p 500. so in this video we're going to take the

標準普爾 500 指數(shù)是百分之三萬。所以在這段視頻中，我們將花

time to hear some of Warren Buffett's advice that specifically applies to the

時間聽聽沃倫巴菲特的一些建議，這些建議特別適用于

the investing scenario that we all face coming into 2023. so what is that

我們都喜歡的投資場景 ce進入 2023 年。

situation well firstly the market is falling it felt 20 in 2022 we also have

首先，市場正在下跌，感覺 2022 年 20 年，我們也有

very high inflation although thankfully that does seem to be trending down at

非常高的通貨膨脹率，盡管值得慶幸的是，至少目前看來確實呈下降趨勢

least currently and then finally we have Rising interest rates which are likely

，然后最終我們的利率可能會上升

going to continue in 2023 based on the FED reaffirming they want to get that

將在 2023 年繼續(xù)，基于美聯(lián)儲重申他們希望將

inflation rate back down to two percent and they won't stop raising rates until

通貨膨脹率回落至 2%，并且他們不會停止加息，直到

they get there so Chuck that all together with the possibility of a

他們到達那里，所以查克，以及全年出現(xiàn)

decent sized recession throughout the year and well for investors there's a

相當規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性好吧，對于投資者來說，有

lot to think about so let's start at the start the first conundrum what do we do

很多事情要考慮，所以讓我們從頭開始第一個難題當股市穩(wěn)步下跌時，

as rational long-term value investors when the stock market is pretty solidly

作為理性的長期價值投資者我們該怎么做

trending down let's talk a little bit about the fact that the Market's down

讓我們談?wù)勈袌龅氖聦?/p>

almost 800 points this morning yeah concern for you well no that's good for

今天早上下跌了近 800 點是的，你很擔心，不，這對我們有好處，

us actually I mean we're a net buyer of stocks over time and uh just like being

實際上我的意思是隨著時間的推移我們是股票的凈買家，呃就像

in that buyer of food I expect to buy food the rest of my life and I hope that

在那個 bu 你的食物我希望在我的余生中購買食物，我希望

food goes down at price tomorrow when stocks are down we're going to be buying

明天當股票下跌時食物價格下跌我們將

on balance and who wouldn't rather buy it you know a lower price at a higher

平衡購買并且誰不愿意購買它你知道更低的價格 更高的

price people are really strange on that I mean they uh because most people most

價格人們真的很奇怪我的意思是他們呃因為大多數(shù)人

most your listeners are Savers and that means they'll beat up buyers and they

大多數(shù)你的聽眾都是儲蓄者這意味著他們會擊敗買家并且他們

should want the stock market to go down they should want to buy at a lower price

應(yīng)該希望股市下跌他們應(yīng)該希望以較低的價格購買

and they have that feeling that they just feel better when stocks are going

他們有一種感覺，當股票上漲時，他們會感覺更好

up Buffett's rational thinking really shines through in this clip if you're a

如果你是一個

long-term investor trying to build wealth and you're under the age of about

試圖積累財富的長期投資者，而且你還不到 55 歲，

you know 55 you actually want the stock market to go down reason being is you

那么巴菲特的理性思維在這個片段中真正閃耀 實際上希望股市下跌的原因是你

should still be a net buyer of stocks you know if you're 70 or if you're 80

仍然應(yīng)該是股票的凈買家，你知道如果你是 70 歲或 80 歲

then you definitely want the stock market to stay really high because on

那么你肯定希望股市保持在高位，因為

the flip side chances are you're in the stage of your life where you're a net

另一方面機會 你在你的階段嗎 生活中你是股票的凈

seller of stocks and I like that Buffett touches on the fact that most people's

賣家，我喜歡巴菲特談到這樣一個事實，即大多數(shù)人

reaction to a falling Market is really emotional people just feel better buying

對下跌市場的反應(yīng)是非常情緒化的，人們

stocks when the market is going up but in reality you should actually actually

在市場上漲時買入股票感覺更好，但實際上你應(yīng)該真正

feel better buying at times like right now when the stock market is down so

感受到 最好在股票市場下跌如此

much and this goes back to a very famous investing quote which says the stock

之多的時候購買，這可以追溯到一個非常著名的投資名言，該名言說

market is the only place people run out of the store during a sale think about

股票市場是人們在銷售期間跑出商店的唯一地方

that when it's Black Friday we're always buying but how come we get scared when

想想黑色星期五 我們一直在買入，但是當黑色星期五發(fā)生在長期投資者的股票市場時，我們怎么會感到害怕

Black Friday happens in the stock market for long-term investors we should

我們

actually get excited by the stock market falling have a listen to these two clips

實際上應(yīng)該對股市下跌感到興奮聽聽這兩個片段，

some people should note on sites at all because they just get too upset with

有些人應(yīng)該在網(wǎng)站上注意，因為

price fluctuations if you're going to do dumb things because your stock a stock

如果你打算做愚蠢的事情，他們就會對價格波動感到非常不安，因為你的股票股價

goes down you shouldn't own a stock at all what I've done things selling a

下跌你根本不應(yīng)該擁有股票我所做的事情賣

stuff selling stock else it goes down I mean if you buy your house at twenty

東西賣如果你以兩萬美元的價格買下你的房子，

thousand dollars and somebody comes along next day and says I'll pay you 15

第二天有人來告訴你我付給你 15 美元，

you don't sell it because the course is 15. but some people are not actually

你就不要賣掉它，因為課程是15 美元。但有些人實際上并沒有

emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks but I think there are more of

情緒化 或者在心理上適合擁有股票，但

them would be if you get educated now on what you're really buying which is part

我認為如果你現(xiàn)在接受教育了解你真正購買的是企業(yè)的一部分

of a business if you worry about corrections you shouldn't own stocks I

，那么如果你擔心修正你不應(yīng)該擁有股票我的

mean if you can't take your stock going now it's going to go down sometime if

意思是如果你可以 現(xiàn)在就拿走你的股票如果

you own a stock so why worry about it I mean the point is to buy something that

你持有一只股票，它會在某個時候下跌所以為什么要擔心它我的意思是要以

you like at a price you like and then hold it for 20 years and you should not

你喜歡的價格購買你喜歡的東西然后持有它 20 年，你不應(yīng)該

look at it day to day if you bought a farm or apartment hush you wouldn't get

如果你買了一個農(nóng)場或公寓，每天看看它，你不會

a quote on it every day or every week or every month so it's a terrible mistake

每天、每周或每個月都得到報價，所以

to think of stocks as something that bob up and down into you should pay

把股票看作是你應(yīng)該上下波動的東西是一個可怕的錯誤

attention to Wells Bobs up and down so in summary own great businesses and

上下關(guān)注Wells Bobs所以總結(jié)自己的gr 吃掉生意，

remember that market Corrections are a normal part of investing and they should

記住市場調(diào)整是投資的正常部分，它們

actually make you happy not scared so that's investing during a bear Market

實際上應(yīng)該讓你開心而不是害怕，所以這是在熊市期間投資，

but what about all this inflation we're seeing prices of materials are rising a

但我們看到的所有這些通貨膨脹呢材料價格目前正在上漲

lot at the moment making everything more expensive for both us consumers and also

很多對我們消費者和企業(yè)來說，一切都變得更加昂貴，

for businesses so what do we need to consider during a period where prices

那么在物價全面上漲的時期，我們需要考慮什么？

across the board are inflating Keane said it many years ago that it's an

invisible tax that only one man and a million really understands the best

investment against inflation is to improve your own earning power the best

對抗通貨膨脹的投資是為了提高你自己的盈利能力，

passive investment I think is is a good business if you own an interest in a

我認為最好的被動投資是一個好企業(yè)，如果你對一個好的企業(yè)有興趣，

good business uh you're very likely to maintain purchasing power no matter what

呃，無論

happens to the currency but it's interesting in the United States the

貨幣發(fā)生什么變化，你都很可能保持購買力，但這很有趣 在美國，

value of the dollar since I was born is declined by 94 percent to six cents but

自從我出生以來，美元的價值下降了 94% 至 6 美分，但

things can work out pretty well even during inflationary times I mean if

一切都還算順利在通貨膨脹時期，我的意思是如果

somebody told me when I was born you know the dollar bill is going to go to

有人告訴我我出生時你知道美元鈔票會漲到

six cents I might have said you know let me go back I'm not I'm not interested in

六美分我可能會說你知道讓我回去我不是我對

emerging into that kind of a world but actually it's worked out pretty well so

出現(xiàn)那種情況不感興趣 一個世界，但實際上它運作得很好所以

I have no complaints so that advice is really interesting there are a few

我沒有抱怨所以建議真的很有趣有一些

Concepts to unpack there firstly the best thing you can do during High

概念首先要打開包裝在高通貨膨脹期間你可以做的最好

inflation is to actually improve your own earning power okay make yourself

的事情就是提高你自己的收入能力好吧讓自己

more valuable to your employer or potential future employers so that your

對你的雇主或潛在的未來雇主更有價值，這樣你的

income can actually rise alongside the inflation that you'll feel but beyond

收入實際上可以隨著你感受到的通貨膨脹而上升，但除此之外

that Buffett says the best passive strategy you can Implement to nullify

，巴菲特說，你可以實施的消除

inflation is to find a really high quality business and stay invested in it

通貨膨脹的最佳被動策略是找到一個真正高質(zhì)量的企業(yè)并保持投資 在其中

and Buffett wrote down exactly what he meant by this back in his 1981

，巴菲特在 1981 年的股東信中準確地寫下了他的意思，

shareholder letter he said that the best businesses to own to combat inflation

他說，最好的企業(yè)擁有抗擊通貨膨脹

have firstly an ability to increase prices rather easily even when product

的能力，首先有能力即使在產(chǎn)品

demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilized without fear of significant

需求持平且產(chǎn)能未得到充分利用的情況下

loss of either market share or unit volume and then two he said they need to

，也很容易壓低價格，而不用擔心市場份額或單位數(shù)量的重大損失，然后他說他們需要

have an ability to accommodate large dollar volume increases in business

有能力適應(yīng)業(yè)務(wù)的大量美元數(shù)量增長，

often produced more by inflation than by real growth with only minor additional

通常生產(chǎn)更多 通貨膨脹而不是實際增長，只需要少量額外

investment of capital so to explain the second Point first Buffett is simply

的資本投資所以解釋第二點第一點巴菲特只是

saying that businesses will fare better during inflation if they are scalable

說，如果企業(yè)具有可擴展性，他們在通貨膨脹期間會表現(xiàn)得更好，也就是

AKA they can accommodate a much higher dollar volume of business without

他們可以容納更高的美元業(yè)務(wù)量而

needing to sink a lot of money into the company to increase that capacity think

無需下沉 大量資金投入公司以增加產(chǎn)能

for example a social media company versus a car company you know it costs

，例如，一家社交媒體公司與一家汽車公司相比，你

Facebook next to nothing really to show you three ads instead of two but for

知道 Facebook 向你展示三個廣告而不是兩個廣告的成本幾乎為零，但

Ford or for Tesla to increase their output by 50 percent well that would

福特或特斯拉將其產(chǎn)量提高了 50% 的油井會

cost a lot in capex and it will take a lot of time to spin up so that's the

在資本支出上花費很多，而且需要很多時間才能啟動，所以這是

second point but it's Buffett's first point that is really critical when it

第二點 但巴菲特的第一點

comes to investing during inflation and that is that the business needs to have

在通貨膨脹期間投資時真正關(guān)鍵，那就是企業(yè)需要

an ability to increase prices with without losing market share or unit

有能力在不損失市場份額或單位

volume and this simply means that the company has a competitive advantage or a

銷量的情況下提高價格，這僅僅意味著公司具有競爭優(yōu)勢或

moat that gives them pricing power when you go into a drugstore 7-Eleven or

當你走進一家 7-11 便利店之類的藥店時，一條護城河賦予他們定價權(quán)

something and you say I would like a Snickers bar and the owner says oh I've

，你說我想要一個士力架酒吧，店主說哦，我

got something the mosque bar at at 10 cents off the Snickers bar you say give

有一些清真寺酒吧的東西，比你說的士力架酒吧便宜 10 美分 給

me the stickers and if he doesn't give you the Snickers you go across the

我貼紙，如果他不給你士力架，你就去

street and buy the stickers it's probably easier to develop a new car

街對面買貼紙，開發(fā)一輛

this compete with stickers but some products have terrific models in them

與貼紙競爭的新車可能更容易，但有些產(chǎn)品有很棒的模型，

probably Elmer's Glue does you know WD-40 people that have an iPhone they

可能是 Elmer's Glue 你知道WD? -40 位擁有 iPhone 的人，他們

want to continue with the product that they've got they want they want the new

希望繼續(xù)使用他們所擁有的產(chǎn)品，他們想要新

version it's just easier for them they've learned how to do everything and

版本，這對他們來說更容易，他們已經(jīng)學會了如何做所有事情，

their life's built around it and all of that and mulch are very useful Costco

并且 他們的生活圍繞著它而建，所有這些和覆蓋物都非常有用 Costco

has a mold in people's mind I mean Amazon can raise the price of prime you

在人們的腦海中有一個模型，我的意思是亞馬遜可以提高 prime 的價格，你

know 20 and you can't do that unless you've built something within that image

知道 20，除非你在那個圖像中構(gòu)建了一些東西，否則你不能這樣做

of the Amazon on Prime that's based on reality that you're going to get a lot

Amazon on Prime 是基于這樣的現(xiàn)實：你會

for your money and you're going to want to use it and then you can raise prices

物有所值，你會想要使用它，然后你可以將價格提高

twenty dollars but if you're selling you know if you're selling some commodity

20 美元，但如果你要賣，你就知道你是否 銷售一些商品

problem a product you can't do that you need a mode so there are many different

問題 一種你不能做的產(chǎn)品，你需要一種模式，所以有許多不同

types of modes out there for example a patent could give a company a moat

類型的模式，例如，專利可以在

anytime you have to pay a toll that toll collecting company has a moat as Buffett

你必須支付通行費時給公司提供護城河，而收費公司有護城河 正如巴菲特

said powerful Brands like Coca-Cola or apple or Louis Vuitton they all have

所說，強大的品牌，如可口可樂、蘋果或路易威登，他們都有

moats Costco's built a motor around always having the best prices there are

護城河 Costco 建立了一個始終擁有最優(yōu)惠價格的汽車

a lot of different ways companies can form a competitive advantage and if it

公司有很多不同的方式可以形成競爭優(yōu)勢，如果它

gives them the ability to dictate prices AKA pricing power then they're the best

賦予他們發(fā)號施令的能力 價格又名 定價權(quán)那么他們是

bets to come out on top during an inflationary period as inflation raises

在通貨膨脹時期脫穎而出的最佳選擇，因為通貨膨脹會增加

their costs and lowers their profits they can simply raise the prices of

他們的成本并降低他們的利潤他們可以簡單地提高

their end products and their moats should protect them from suffering a

最終產(chǎn)品的價格，他們的護城河應(yīng)該保護他們免受

drop in sales in fact last year as Coca-Cola raised their prices their

銷售下降 事實上，去年可口可樂提高了價格，他們的

sales actually went up so there's some good proof for you so that's how to

銷售額實際上上升了，所以有一些很好的證據(jù)給你，這就是如何

handle the inflation side of investing in 2023 but finally we also need to talk

應(yīng)對 2023 年投資的通貨膨脹方面，但最后我們還需要

about the third Big Challenge of investing this year interest rates what

談?wù)劷衲晖顿Y的第三大挑戰(zhàn)利率

can we do when interest rates just keep Rising interest rates

當利率持續(xù)上升時我們能做什么利率上升

you know basically are to uh the value of assets what gravity is to matter you

你知道基本上是資產(chǎn)的價值你知道引力的重要性

know essentially and if if I could reduce gravity it's pulled by about 80

，如果我能降低引力，它會被拉動大約 80

percent I mean I'd be in the Tokyo Olympics jumping that's really the way

% 我的意思是我會 參加東京奧運會，這真的是

to view interest rates like gravity to the stock market when interest rates are

看待利率的方式，就像在利率非常低的時候股市對股市的引力一樣，

very low it makes money cheap and easy to access for both consumers and

它讓錢變得便宜而且容易獲得 r 消費者和

businesses and this means more spending more profits and more growth and that's

企業(yè)，這意味著更多的支出，更多的利潤和更多的增長，這

what we've had basically over the past 10 years or so but now on the flip side

基本上是我們在過去10 年左右的時間里所擁有的，但現(xiàn)在另一方面，

we're starting to see Rising interest rates this means of course borrowed

我們開始看到利率上升，這當然意味著借來的

money is more expensive to access so business debts become harder to pay off

獲得資金的成本更高，因此企業(yè)債務(wù)變得更難償還，

and consumers generally have a lot less to spend so this is a tough environment

而消費者的支出通常要少得多，因此這

for businesses to operate and thrive in and often shows in their financial

對企業(yè)經(jīng)營和繁榮來說是一個艱難的環(huán)境，而且往往會反映在他們的財務(wù)

results which then affect their stock prices have a look at this graphic of

業(yè)績中，進而影響他們的股價 看看這張

the past five years as you can see interest rates went up in 28 18 and the

過去五年的圖表，你可以看到利率在 28 18 年上升，而

stock market didn't do much at all in 2019 rates started coming down and the

股市在 2019 年根本沒有做太多，利率開始下降，

market went up and then when covert struck the FED lowered the interest rate

市場上升，然后當美聯(lián)儲秘密行動時 將利率

to zero and the market basically boomed for two years however in 2022 interest

降至零，市場基本上繁榮了兩年，但在 2022 年，

rates went up a lot and the market dropped by 20 so when rates go up stocks

利率大幅上漲，市場下跌了 20，所以當利率上升時，股票

generally suffer and this is half caused by businesses performing poorly and

普遍受到影響，這是 一半是由企業(yè)表現(xiàn)不佳

their stock value falling but the other factor to consider with interest rates

和股票價值下跌引起的，但另一個要考慮

is of course government bonds so U.S treasury bills or treasury bonds are

利率的因素當然是政府債券，所以美國國庫券或國債

generally considered the risk-free returns so you give the US Treasury a

通常被認為是無風險回報，所以你給美國財政部

loan and then they'll pay you back at some point in the future plus interest

貸款，然后 他們會在未來的某個時候還給你加上利息，

so when interest rates are low the government honestly they give you bugger

所以當利率很低時，政府老實說他們會給你

all interest but when interest rates rise if you buy the new bonds that

所有的利息，但是當利率上升時，如果你購買他們發(fā)行的新債券，這些債券

they're issuing well those ones will give you a higher interest payment now

會給你 你現(xiàn)在支付更高的利息，

this is all very boring to us but it is very interesting to the 80 of the market

這對我們來說都很無聊，但對于市場上的 80 個人來說，這很有趣，

who are just Institution money managers trying to get a good return for their

他們只是機構(gòu)資金經(jīng)理，試圖以盡可能低的風險為客戶獲得良好的回報，

clients with as little risk as possible so what you find is that when rates rise

所以你發(fā)現(xiàn)的是 當利率上升時

a lot of professional money flows out of the risky stock market and back into the

，大量專業(yè)資金從高風險的股票市場流出，回到

safety of treasury bills and that's selling out of the stock market by the

安全的國庫券中，這就是 bi 拋售股票市場

big players causes stock prices to fall this is Buffett talking about exactly

g 玩家導致股價下跌這是巴菲特

this idea in 1982 or three when the long government got to 15 a company that was

在 1982 年或三年時談?wù)摰恼沁@個想法，當時長期政府達到 15 一家公司的

earning 15 on Equity was no more than Book value under those circumstances

股票收益為 15在這種情況下不超過賬面價值，

because you could buy a 30-year strip of bonds and guarantee yourself for 15 a

因為你可以購買 30- 一年的債券，并為自己提供 15

year and a business that earned 12 percent was a subpar business then but a

年的擔保，當時一家盈利 12% 的企業(yè)是一家低于標準的

business that earns 12 percent when the Government Bond is three percent is one

企業(yè)，但當政府債券為 3% 時，一家盈利 12%

hell of a business now and that's why they solve a very fancy prices so if a

的企業(yè)現(xiàn)在是一家地獄般的企業(yè)，這就是為什么他們解決了一個 非?；ㄉ诘膬r格，所以如果一家

business is giving you 10 Returns per year that's pretty good but the closer

企業(yè)每年給你 10 的回報，那是相當不錯的，但

that risk-free rate gets to 10 the more professional money will sell the

無風險利率越接近 10，就越有專業(yè)的資金會出售該

business and just buy the Government Bond causing the businesses stock price

企業(yè)并購買政府債券，導致企業(yè)

price to fall so what do we take away from all this well it's again that we

股價下跌 那么，我們從這一切中得到了什么？再次是，我們

need to be laser focused on our selected businesses performance and we need to

需要高度關(guān)注我們選定的業(yè)務(wù)績效，我們需要

stay focused on the long term because history tells us stocks are generally a

保持長期關(guān)注，因為歷史告訴我們

better place to be than bonds over a very long period of time that's just the

在很長一段時間內(nèi)，美國股票通常比債券更好，這只是

reality but for short periods of time well occasionally they're not so we as

現(xiàn)實，但在短時間內(nèi)，偶爾情況并非如此，所以我們作為

stock market investors need to stay focused on the long term so that we can

股市投資者需要專注于長期，所以 我們可以

use the depressed stock prices on high quality businesses as opportunities for

利用高質(zhì)量企業(yè)的低迷股價作為獲得

long-term returns we need to acknowledge that we can't do anything about the

長期回報的

Federal Reserve they'll do whatever so instead let's just play the long game

and pick up great businesses at great prices while interest rates are really

機會 偉大的企業(yè)以優(yōu)惠的價格，而利率確實

high that's how we tackle a high interest rate environment and overall

很高，這就是我們應(yīng)對高利率環(huán)境的方式，

guys that is Warren Buffett's wisdom around tackling the three big investing

這是沃倫巴菲特解決

issues that we are all going to face in 2023 stock market correction High

我們在 2023 年股市調(diào)整中都將面臨的三大投資問題的智慧高

inflation and Rising interest rates but really hope you got something useful out

通脹和 利率上升，但真的希望你能從這個視頻中得到一些有用的東西

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