In pennsylvania, a celebrity cardiologist who rages against the inflated price of crudités faces a tattooed lieutenant governor with heart trouble. In Georgia, the choice is between a pastor on one side and a former star of “Celebrity Apprentice” and “Celebrity Cook-Off” on the other. In November the results of these contests, and a few others like them, will determine control of the us Senate for the next two years. On this hinges the ability of the White House to staff its administration, to confirm judicial nominations and to pursue legislation.

在賓夕法尼亞州，一位對生菜沙拉價格過高而憤怒的著名心臟病專家對上的是一位有紋身且患有心臟病的副州長。在佐治亞州，一方選擇是牧師，另一方是《名人學徒》和《名人廚藝大賽》的前明星。11月，這些選舉的結果，以及其他一些類似的選舉，將決定未來兩年美國參議院的控制權。這取決于白宮是否有能力為其行政部門配備人員，是否有能力確認司法人員的提名，以及是否有能力推動立法。

Because so much is riding on this election, The Economist has built a statistical model to try to predict what will happen. Our past forecasts—of France’s presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, America’s midterms of 2018 and its presidential election of 2020—all favoured the eventual victor months in advance. Of course, a probabilistic forecast that correctly puts a 70% chance on something happening will look wrong 30% of the time.

因為這次選舉事關重大，《經濟學人》建立了一個統(tǒng)計模型，試圖預測將會發(fā)生什么。我我們過去對法國2017年和2022年總統(tǒng)選舉、美國2018年中期選舉和2020年總統(tǒng)選舉的預測都提前幾個月傾向于預測出最終的勝利者。當然，一個有70%的可能性預測正確的概率預測問題，仍有30%的情況下是錯誤的。

Our 2022 midterm model has two main findings. First, though Republicans are favoured to win the House, it won’t be a blowout. We currently think the likeliest outcome is that they win 224 seats. Second, we think Democrats are favoured to hold on to the Senate. The likeliest outcome there is that they end up with 51 seats.

我們的2022年中期模型有兩個主要發(fā)現(xiàn)。首先，盡管共和黨有望贏得眾議院，但這不會是一場大勝。我們目前認為最有可能的結果是他們贏得224個席位。其次，我們認為民主黨人更傾向于保住參議院。最有可能的結果是他們最終獲得51個席位。

These predictions are surprising because 2022 ought to be a bumper year for Republicans. The party that holds the White House normally gets thwacked in the midterms—a pattern that stretches back 80 years. The only recent exceptions are the midterms after Republicans started impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton and those following September 11th 2001. Furthermore, President Joe Biden is about as popular as an eggwhite omelette at a barbecue contest. His approval rating matches Donald Trump’s at this point in his presidency. Inflation is high, and near the top of Americans’ concerns. Voters perceive the Democratic Party to be just as extreme as the Republican Party (and some Democrats are determined to prove them right).

這些預測令人驚訝，因為2022年對共和黨人來說應該是豐收年。執(zhí)掌白宮的政黨通常會在中期選舉中受到打擊，這種模式可以追溯到80年前。最近唯一的例外是共和黨啟動彈劾比爾·克林頓的中期選舉，以及2001年9月11日之后的中期選舉。此外，喬·拜登總統(tǒng)就像燒烤比賽上的蛋清煎蛋一樣受歡迎。他的支持率與唐納德·特朗普在總統(tǒng)任期的這個階段相當。通貨膨脹率很高，這幾乎是美國人最關心的問題。選民們認為民主黨和共和黨一樣極端(一些民主黨人決心證明他們是對的)。

Against this backdrop, narrowly winning the House and remaining the minority in the Senate would be a rotten result for Republicans. Pinpointing the cause of this likely underperformance is not a science: inflation has fallen a little, petrol prices are coming down and Democrats, having given up fantasies of another New Deal, have passed some smaller but meaningful pieces of legislation. But two things stand out.

在這樣的背景下，對共和黨來說，以微弱優(yōu)勢贏得眾議院并在參議院保持少數(shù)席位將是一個糟糕的結果。找出這種可能表現(xiàn)不佳的原因不是一門科學：通貨膨脹有所下降，汽油價格也在下降，民主黨人放棄了另一項新政的幻想，通過了一些規(guī)模較小但意義重大的立法。但有兩件事很突出。

The first is that Republican states have pursued extreme positions on abortion that alarm many voters. A majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in the first trimester and restricted thereafter. Several Republican states have banned abortion entirely since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade this year. Previously, anti-abortion purists had little grip on public policy. Now, in some states, they control it. As a result, a ten-year-old rape victim had to travel out of Ohio for an abortion, and there has been a surge of women registering to vote. Back in June, before the Supreme Court’s bombshell, our model favoured Republicans to win a majority in the Senate. Their chances of doing so have since declined by 30 points.

首先，共和黨支持的州在墮胎問題上采取了極端立場，這讓許多選民感到不安。大多數(shù)美國人認為在妊娠頭三個月墮胎應該是合法的，三個月之后則應該限制墮胎。自今年最高法院推翻羅伊訴韋德案以來，幾個共和黨州已經完全禁止墮胎。以前，反墮胎純粹主義者對公共政策幾乎沒有控制力。現(xiàn)在，在一些州，他們控制著它。因此，一名10歲的強奸受害者不得不去俄亥俄州以外的地方墮胎，而且登記投票的女性人數(shù)激增。早在今年6月，在最高法院宣布驚人消息之前，我們的模型就傾向于共和黨贏得參議院的多數(shù)席位。自那以后，他們贏得多數(shù)席位的可能性下降了30個百分點。

The second is Mr Trump’s enduring hold over the Republican Party. Trumpy candidates triumphed in the primaries. As a result, the former president has saddled the party with some odd people who hold even odder views in winnable Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr Trump, in addition to his other flaws, is a proven vote-loser—as the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential election demonstrated. The sooner the Republican Party recognises this the better, both for its own electoral prospects and for America’s democracy.

第二點是特朗普對共和黨的持久控制。特朗普的候選人在初選中獲勝。結果，這位前總統(tǒng)在亞利桑那州、佐治亞州、俄亥俄州和賓夕法尼亞州的參議院選舉中，讓一些古怪的人擔負起黨內重任，這些人的觀點甚至更加古怪。特朗普，除了他的其他缺點之外，已經被證明是選票失敗者，2018年中期選舉和2020年總統(tǒng)選舉就證明了這一點。共和黨越早認識到這一點越好，這對他們自己的選舉前景和美國的民主都是如此。