American Economic Journal: Economic Policy?2023年第2期

Vol. 15 No. 2 May 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

How Do Institutions of Higher Education Affect Local Invention? Evidence from the Establishment of US Colleges

高等教育機(jī)構(gòu)如何影響地方發(fā)明?美國大學(xué)的建立就是證據(jù)

DavidCard,?David?Silver

Treatment practices vary widely across hospitals, often with little connection to patients' medical needs. We assess impacts of these differences in delivery practices at childbirth. We find that infants quasi-randomly delivered at hospitals with higher C-section rates are born in better shape and are less likely to be readmitted, with suggestive evidence of improved survival. These benefits are driven by avoidance of prolonged labors that pose risks to infant health. In contrast, these infants are more likely to visit the emergency department for respiratory-related problems, consistent with a large observational literature linking C-section to chronic reductions in respiratory health.

Optimal Income Taxation with Spillovers from Employer Learning

具有雇主學(xué)習(xí)溢出效應(yīng)的最優(yōu)所得稅

<span ashley="" '="" style="box-sizing: border-box;text-rendering: optimizelegibility;text-size-adjust: none" id="hcard-">Ashley C.Craig

I study optimal income taxation when human capital investment is imperfectly observable by employers. In the model, Bayesian inference about worker productivity compresses the wage distribution, lowering the private return to human capital investment. An externality arises: given the same information, employers are more optimistic about each individual if workers are generally more productive. The significance of this externality hinges on the accuracy of employers' beliefs and the responsiveness of human capital. For the United States, taking it into account lowers optimal marginal tax rates for most workers, reducing them by a maximum of 9–13 percentage points between $50,000 and $100,000.

本文研究了雇主在人力資本投資不完全可觀察的情況下的最優(yōu)所得稅。在模型中，關(guān)于工人生產(chǎn)率的貝葉斯推斷壓縮了工資分配，降低了私人人力資本投資的回報(bào)。這就產(chǎn)生了外部性:在相同的信息下，如果員工總體上更有生產(chǎn)力，雇主對每個(gè)人都更樂觀。這種外部性的重要性取決于雇主信念的準(zhǔn)確性和人力資本的反應(yīng)能力。對美國來說，將其考慮在內(nèi)會降低大多數(shù)工人的最佳邊際稅率，將5萬美元至10萬美元之間的稅率最多降低9-13個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence

養(yǎng)老金和生育率:微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)證據(jù)

LennardZyska

This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go pension system in the long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons.

Profiting from Most-Favored-Customer Procurement Rules: Evidence from Medicaid

從最優(yōu)惠客戶采購規(guī)則中獲利:來自醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助的證據(jù)

ThomasHwang?and?<span '="" style="box-sizing: border-box;text-rendering: optimizelegibility;text-size-adjust: none" id="hcard-">Luca?Maini

Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that an increase to Medicaid's minimum drug rebate under the Affordable Care Act in 2010 lowered non-Medicaid drug spending by 2.5 percent. A stylized bargaining model shows that this is likely driven by the interaction of this reform with Medicaid's "most-favored customer" clause (MFCC). By examining the response of drugs that faced a change in incentives equivalent to the removal of Medicaid's MFCC, we estimate that removing the Medicaid MFCC would have reduced overall 2010 non-Medicaid drug spending by an additional 3.5 percent, though it would have likely also increased Medicaid spending.

No Spending without Representation: School Boards and the Racial Gap in Education Finance

AndreasGulyas,?Sourav?Sinha

We study the 2011 Austrian pay transparency law, which requires firms above a size threshold to publish internal reports on the gender pay gap. Using an event-study design, we show that the policy had no discernible effects on male and female wages, thus leaving the gender wage gap unchanged. The effects are precisely estimated, and we rule out that the policy narrowed the gender wage gap by more than 0.4 p.p.. Moreover, we do not find evidence for wage compression within establishments. We discuss several possible reasons why the reform did not reduce the gender wage gap.

Peer Effects in Police Use of Force

警察使用武力中的同伴效應(yīng)

Roman G.Rivera?and?Akshaya?Jha?and?<span frank="" '="" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;text-size-adjust: none" id="hcard-">Frank A.?Wolak

Forward markets are believed to aggregate information about future spot prices and reduce the cost of producing the commodity. We develop a measure of the extent to which forward and spot prices agree in markets with transaction costs. Using this measure, we show that day-ahead prices better reflect real-time prices at all locations in California's electricity market after the introduction of financial trading. We then present evidence suggesting that operating costs and input fuel use fell after the introduction of financial trading on days when the nonconvexities inherent to the production and transmission of electricity are especially relevant.

Borrowing Costs after Sovereign Debt Relief

主權(quán)債務(wù)減免后的借款成本

DavidMihalyi?and?Cher Hsuehhsiang?Li?and?Maggie?Liu,?Vis?Taraz

How do rising temperatures affect long-term labor reallocation in developing economies? In this paper we examine how increases in temperature impact structural transformation and urbanization within Indian districts between 1951 and 2011. We find that rising temperatures are associated with lower shares of workers in nonagricultural sectors, with effects intensifying over a longer time frame. Supporting evidence suggests that local demand effects play an important role: declining agricultural productivity under higher temperatures reduces the demand for nonagricultural goods and services, which subsequently lowers nonagricultural labor demand. Our results illustrate that rising temperatures limit sectoral and rural-urban mobility for isolated households.

Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy

對億萬富翁征稅:遺產(chǎn)稅和超級富豪的地理位置

Daniel J.Wilson

We contribute to the literature on the effect of taxes on the locational choices of wealthy individuals by examining the geographical sensitivity of the Forbes 400 richest Americans to state estate taxes. Though we find billionaires' effective tax rates are only about half the statutory rate, their residential choices are highly sensitive to these taxes, as 35 percent of local billionaires leave states with an estate tax. This tax-induced mobility causes a large reduction in the aggregate tax base. Nonetheless, we find that the revenue benefit of an estate tax exceeds the cost for the vast majority of states.

通過考察福布斯400名最富有的美國人對州遺產(chǎn)稅的地理敏感性，我們對稅收對富人地域選擇的影響的文獻(xiàn)做出了貢獻(xiàn)。盡管我們發(fā)現(xiàn)億萬富翁的實(shí)際稅率只有法定稅率的一半左右，但他們的居住選擇對這些稅收非常敏感，因?yàn)?5%的當(dāng)?shù)貎|萬富翁在離開州時(shí)要繳納遺產(chǎn)稅。這種稅收誘導(dǎo)的流動(dòng)性導(dǎo)致了總稅基的大幅下降。盡管如此，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，對絕大多數(shù)州來說，遺產(chǎn)稅帶來的收入收益超過了成本。

Go with the Politician

隨波逐流

ChunyangWang

Chinese local leaders are frequently moved across prefectures. By combining local leader rotation data and comprehensive firm land parcel purchase data across prefectures from 2006 to 2016, this paper examines how firm-politician connections affect resource allocation and finds that a firm headquartered in a leader's previous work prefecture purchases three times more land parcels in that leader's new governing prefecture than the prefecture-year mean, at half the unit prices. Identification is from within-firm-year variation in various prefectures through exogenous politician rotation. Land usage efficiency is lower for these follower firms' land parcels. Land allocation distortion is also economically sizable.

中國的地方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人經(jīng)常被調(diào)任到其他地方。本文結(jié)合2006—2016年地方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)輪崗數(shù)據(jù)和地級市企業(yè)地塊綜合購買數(shù)據(jù)，考察了企業(yè)—政治家關(guān)系對資源配置的影響。通過外生政治家輪換，識別來自于各地級市企業(yè)—年度內(nèi)的變化。這些跟隨企業(yè)地塊的土地利用效率較低。土地分配扭曲在經(jīng)濟(jì)上也是相當(dāng)大的。

Externalities in International Tax Enforcement: Theory and Evidence

LudvigWier?and?Aleksandar?Zaklan

I examine the Coasean independence property in a large multinational cap-and-trade scheme for greenhouse gas emissions, the EU Emissions Trading System. I analyze whether emissions of power producers are independent from allowance allocations by leveraging a change in allocation policy for a difference-in-difference strategy. The evidence suggests that the independence property holds overall and for larger emitters and that firms respond to the loss in allocation by increasing allowance purchases. Suggestive evidence for small emitters indicates that trading costs or behavioral bias distorts their emission decisions. However, their small emission share leaves the independence property intact at the sector level.

我考察了一個(gè)大型跨國溫室氣體排放限額與交易體系——?dú)W盟排放交易體系——中的Coasean獨(dú)立性。我利用雙重差分策略改變分配政策，分析發(fā)電企業(yè)的排放是否獨(dú)立于配額分配。證據(jù)表明，獨(dú)立屬性對整體和較大的排放主體都有效，企業(yè)通過增加配額購買來應(yīng)對配額分配的損失。對小型排放企業(yè)的暗示性證據(jù)表明，交易成本或行為偏差扭曲了它們的排放決策。然而，它們的排放份額很小，在部門層面上保持了獨(dú)立性。