The Review of Economics and Statistics ?2023年第1期

?

——更多動態(tài)，請持續(xù)關注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨

?

1.Saving Lives by Tying Hands: The Unexpected Effects of Constraining Health Care Providers

牽手拯救生命:約束醫(yī)療服務提供者的意外效果

Jonathan Gruber, Thomas P. Hoe, George Stoye

We study how emergency department (ED) doctors respond to incentives to reduce wait times. We use bunching techniques to study an English policy that imposed strong incentives to treat patients within four hours. The policy reduced time spent in the ED by 21 minutes for affected patients yet caused doctors to increase treatment intensity and admit more patients. We find a striking 14% reduction in mortality. Analysis of patient severity and hospital crowding strongly suggests it is the wait time reduction that saves lives. We conclude that, despite distorting medical decisions, constraining ED doctors can induce cost-effective reductions in mortality.

我們研究急診科(ED)醫(yī)生如何對減少等待時間的激勵做出反應。我們使用聚類技術來研究英國的一項政策，該政策施加了強烈的激勵，在四小時內(nèi)治療患者。該政策將受影響患者在急診室的時間減少了21分鐘，但卻導致醫(yī)生增加了治療強度，收治了更多患者。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)死亡率顯著降低了14%。對患者嚴重程度和醫(yī)院擁擠程度的分析強烈表明，減少等待時間是挽救生命的關鍵。我們的結論是，盡管扭曲了醫(yī)療決策，但限制急診醫(yī)生可以從成本效益上降低死亡率。

?

?

2.Rent-Seeking and Criminal Politicians: Evidence from Mining Booms

尋租和犯罪政客:礦業(yè)繁榮的證據(jù)

Sam Asher, Paul Novosad

We study how natural resource rents affect the selection and behavior of holders of public office. Using global price shocks to thirty-one minerals and nationwide geological and political data from India, we show that local mineral rent shocks cause the election of politicians charged with serious crimes. We also find a moral hazard effect: politicians commit more crimes and accumulate greater wealth when mineral prices rise during their terms in office. These politicians have direct influence over mining operations but no access to fiscal windfalls from mining; we thus isolate the direct political impacts of mining sector operations.

本文研究自然資源租金如何影響公職人員的選擇和行為。利用全球31種礦產(chǎn)的價格沖擊以及印度全國范圍內(nèi)的地質(zhì)和政治數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，地方礦產(chǎn)租金沖擊導致被控嚴重犯罪的政客當選。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)了道德風險效應:當?shù)V產(chǎn)價格在政客任期內(nèi)上漲時，他們會犯下更多的罪行，積累更多的財富。這些政客對采礦業(yè)務有直接影響，但無法從采礦中獲得財政意外收益;因此，我們孤立了采礦部門業(yè)務的直接政治影響。

?

?

3.Beliefs about Racial Discrimination and Support for Pro-Black Policies

對種族歧視的信仰和對親黑人政策的支持

Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth

This paper provides representative evidence on beliefs about racial discrimination and examines whether information causally affects support for pro-black policies. Eliciting quantitative beliefs about the extent of hiring discrimination against blacks, we uncover large disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination with particularly pronounced partisan differences. An information treatment leads to a convergence in beliefs about racial discrimination but does not lead to a similar convergence in support of pro-black policies. The results demonstrate that while providing information can substantially reduce disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination, it is not sufficient to reduce disagreement about pro-black policies.

本文提供了關于種族歧視信念的代表性證據(jù)，并檢驗了信息是否會對支持黑人的政策產(chǎn)生因果影響。在引出關于雇傭歧視黑人程度的定量信念后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了關于種族歧視程度的巨大分歧，特別是明顯的黨派分歧。信息處理導致對種族歧視的信念趨同，但不會導致對支持黑人政策的類似趨同。研究結果表明，雖然提供信息可以大大減少關于種族歧視程度的分歧，但這并不足以減少關于支持黑人政策的分歧。

?

?

4.Sinning in the Rain: Weather Shocks, Church Attendance, and Crime

雨中犯罪:天氣沖擊，做禮拜和犯罪

Jonathan Moreno-Medina

This paper provides evidence of the causal effect of church attendance on petty crime by using quasi-random variation in the number of Sundays when it precipitated at the specific time of most religious services. Using a novel strategy, I find a narrow time window when most individuals attend church. Based on a panel between 1980 and 2016, I find that one more Sunday with precipitation at the time of church increases yearly drug-related, alcohol-related, and white-collar crimes. I do not find an effect for violent or property crimes. These effects are driven by more religious counties. Previous evidence showing negative effects of church attendance on the demand for alcohol and drugs is consistent with a demand-driven interpretation of the results presented.

本文利用周日的數(shù)量在大多數(shù)宗教活動的特定時間發(fā)生的準隨機變化，提供了去教堂做禮拜對輕微犯罪的因果影響的證據(jù)。使用一種新穎的策略，我發(fā)現(xiàn)大多數(shù)人去教堂的時間窗口都很窄。基于1980年至2016年的一個小組討論，我發(fā)現(xiàn)，在教堂做禮拜時，多一個星期天的降水，每年與毒品、酒精和白領有關的犯罪就會增加。我沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)對暴力或財產(chǎn)犯罪的影響。這些影響是由宗教較多的國家推動的。以前的證據(jù)表明，去教堂對酒精和藥物需求有負面影響，這與對報告結果的需求驅動解釋是一致的。

?

?

5.Approximate Variational Estimation for a Model of Network Formation

網(wǎng)絡形成模型的近似變分估計

Angelo Mele, Lingjiong Zhu

We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting nonlinear large deviation results. This translates into bounds on the distance between true likelihood and mean-field likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that in practice, our deterministic method performs better than our conservative theoretical approximation bounds imply, for a large class of models.

我們開發(fā)了指數(shù)隨機圖模型(ERGMs)的近似估計方法，其可能性與一個棘手的標準化常數(shù)成比例。通常的方法是用蒙特卡羅模擬來近似這個常數(shù);然而，收斂速度可能呈指數(shù)級緩慢。我們提出了一個確定性方法，基于變分平均場近似的ERGM的歸一化常數(shù)。我們計算了任何網(wǎng)絡大小的逼近誤差的下界和上界，采用非線性大偏差結果。這轉化為真實似然和平均場似然之間距離的界限。蒙特卡羅模擬表明，在實踐中，我們的確定性方法的性能優(yōu)于我們的保守理論逼近邊界暗示，對于大類模型。

?

?

6.The Micro-Origins of Business Cycles: Evidence from German Metropolitan Areas

商業(yè)周期的微觀起源:來自德國大都市的證據(jù)

Federica Daniele, Heiko Stüber

How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, and local concentration Granger causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model along the lines of Carvalho and Grassi (2019) and find that the more fat-tailed productivity distribution in bigger cities crucially depends also on the higher probability that firms will grow.

大公司造成的波動有多大?我們通過簡化形式分析和校準練習來回答這個問題。首先，我們利用德國城市間的時間和空間變化，發(fā)現(xiàn)更高的集中度與更持久的本地商業(yè)周期相關，而本地集中度格蘭杰導致本地就業(yè)波動。從商業(yè)周期的角度來看，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)的證據(jù)只支持粒度驅動的衰退。接下來，我們按照Carvalho和Grassi(2019)的方法校準了一個結構模型，發(fā)現(xiàn)較大城市的厚尾生產(chǎn)率分布在很大程度上也取決于企業(yè)增長的可能性更高。

?

?

?

7.Exchange Rate Shocks and Quality Adjustments

匯率沖擊與質(zhì)量調(diào)整

Daniel Goetz, Alexander Rodnyansky

Do firms respond to cost shocks by reducing the quality of their products? Using microdata from a large Russian retailer that refreshes its product line twice-yearly, we document that higher quality products are more profitable than lower quality ones, but that the number of high-quality products experiences a relative decrease after a large ruble devaluation in 2014. We show that rising firm costs—and not shrinking consumer incomes—explains the reallocation, and rationalize the data with a model that features consumer expenditure switching between high and low qualities. The reallocation to lower quality products reduces average pass-through by 26%.

企業(yè)是否通過降低產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量來應對成本沖擊?利用俄羅斯一家大型零售商每年更新其產(chǎn)品線兩次的微觀數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，高質(zhì)量產(chǎn)品比低質(zhì)量產(chǎn)品更有利可圖，但在2014年盧布大幅貶值后，高質(zhì)量產(chǎn)品的數(shù)量出現(xiàn)了相對下降。我們的研究表明，企業(yè)成本的上升(而不是消費者收入的減少)解釋了再分配現(xiàn)象，并通過一個消費者支出在高質(zhì)量和低質(zhì)量之間轉換的模型對數(shù)據(jù)進行了合理化。向低質(zhì)量產(chǎn)品的重新分配減少了26%的平均傳遞。

?

?

8.Targeted Undersmoothing: Sensitivity Analysis for Sparse Estimators

目標欠平滑:稀疏估計的靈敏度分析

Christian Hansen, Damian Kozbur, Sanjog Misra

This paper proposes a procedure for assessing the sensitivity of inferential conclusions for functionals of sparse high-dimensional models following model selection. The proposed procedure is called targeted undersmoothing. Functionals considered include dense functionals that may depend on many or all elements of the high-dimensional parameter vector. The sensitivity analysis is based on systematic enlargements of an initially selected model. By varying the enlargements, one can conduct sensitivity analysis about the strength of empirical conclusions to model selection mistakes. We illustrate the procedure's performance through simulation experiments and two empirical examples.

本文提出了一種基于稀疏高維模型泛函的推理結論敏感性評估方法。建議的程序被稱為有針對性的欠平滑處理。所考慮的泛函包括可能依賴于高維參數(shù)向量的許多或所有元素的密集泛函。敏感性分析是在對初步選擇的模型進行系統(tǒng)放大的基礎上進行的。通過改變放大率，可以對實證結論的強度對模型選擇錯誤進行敏感性分析。通過仿真實驗和兩個實例說明了該方法的性能。

?

?

9.Approximate Variational Estimation for a Model of Network Formation

網(wǎng)絡形成模型的近似變分估計

Angelo Mele, Lingjiong Zhu

We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting nonlinear large deviation results. This translates into bounds on the distance between true likelihood and mean-field likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that in practice, our deterministic method performs better than our conservative theoretical approximation bounds imply, for a large class of models.

我們開發(fā)了指數(shù)隨機圖模型(ERGMs)的近似估計方法，其可能性與一個棘手的標準化常數(shù)成比例。通常的方法是用蒙特卡羅模擬來近似這個常數(shù);然而，收斂速度可能呈指數(shù)級緩慢。我們提出了一個確定性方法，基于變分平均場近似的ERGM的歸一化常數(shù)。我們計算了任何網(wǎng)絡大小的逼近誤差的下界和上界，采用非線性大偏差結果。這轉化為真實似然和平均場似然之間距離的界限。蒙特卡羅模擬表明，在實踐中，我們的確定性方法的性能優(yōu)于我們的保守理論逼近邊界暗示，對于大類模型。

?

?

10.Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions

向量自回歸的內(nèi)生時間變化

Danilo Leiva-León, Luis Uzeda

We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence the dynamics of the coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm and a parameterization conducive to model comparison are also provided. We apply our framework to the U.S. economy. Scenario analysis suggests that once accounting for the influence of structural shocks on the autoregressive coefficients, the effects of monetary policy on economic activity are larger and more persistent than in an otherwise standard TVP-VAR. Our results also indicate that cost-push shocks play a prominent role in understanding historical changes in inflation-gap persistence.

我們引入了一類新的時變參數(shù)向量自回歸(TVP-VARs)，其中已識別的結構創(chuàng)新被允許影響這些模型中系數(shù)的動態(tài)。給出了一種便于模型比較的估計算法和參數(shù)化方法。我們將我們的框架應用于美國經(jīng)濟。情景分析表明，在考慮了結構沖擊對自回歸系數(shù)的影響后，貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟活動的影響比標準的TVP-VAR更大、更持久。我們的結果還表明，成本推動沖擊在理解通脹缺口持續(xù)性的歷史變化方面發(fā)揮了突出作用。

?

?

11.Cash Transfers and Migration: Theory and Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

現(xiàn)金轉移和移民:來自隨機對照試驗的理論和證據(jù)

Jules Gazeaud, Eric Mvukiyehe, Olivier Sterck

Will the fast expansion of cash-based programming in poor countries increase international migration? Theoretically, cash transfers may deter migration by increasing its opportunity cost or favor migration by relaxing liquidity, credit, and risk constraints. This paper evaluates the impact of a cash-for-work program on migration. Randomly selected households in Comoros were offered up to US$320 in cash in exchange for their participation in public works projects. We find that the program increased international migration by 38% from 7.8% to 10.8%. The increase in migration appears to be driven by the alleviation of liquidity and risk constraints.

以現(xiàn)金為基礎的方案在貧窮國家的快速擴張是否會增加國際移民?理論上，現(xiàn)金轉移可能通過增加轉移的機會成本來阻止轉移，也可能通過放松流動性、信貸和風險約束來促進轉移。本文評估了工作換現(xiàn)金計劃對移民的影響。在科摩羅隨機選擇的家庭被提供高達320美元的現(xiàn)金，以換取他們參與公共工程項目。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，該項目使國際移民從7.8%增加了38%，達到10.8%。移民的增加似乎是由流動性和風險約束的緩解所推動的。

?

?

12.How Much Do Consumers Value Fuel Economy and Performance? Evidence from Technology Adoption

消費者有多重視燃油經(jīng)濟性和性能?來自技術采用的證據(jù)

Benjamin Leard, Joshua Linn, Yichen Christy Zhou

During historical periods in which U.S. fuel economy standards were unchanging, automakers increased performance but not fuel economy, contrasting with recent periods of tightening standards and rising fuel economy. This paper evaluates the welfare consequences of automakers forgoing performance increases to raise fuel economy as standards have tightened since 2012. Using a unique data set and a novel approach to account for fuel economy and performance endogeneity, we find undervaluation of fuel cost savings and high valuation of performance. Welfare costs of forgone performance approximately equal expected fuel savings benefits, suggesting approximately zero net private consumer benefit from tightened standards.

在美國燃油經(jīng)濟性標準不變的歷史時期，汽車制造商提高了業(yè)績，但沒有提高燃油經(jīng)濟性，這與最近標準收緊和燃油經(jīng)濟性上升的時期形成了鮮明對比。本文評估了自2012年標準收緊以來，汽車制造商放棄提高業(yè)績以提高燃油經(jīng)濟性的福利后果。使用獨特的數(shù)據(jù)集和一種新的方法來考慮燃料經(jīng)濟性和性能內(nèi)生性，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)燃料成本節(jié)約被低估，而性能估值過高。放棄性能的福利成本大約等于預期的燃料節(jié)省效益，這表明收緊標準對私人消費者的凈收益大約為零。

?

?

13.Herding and Contrarianism: A Matter of Preference?

羊群行為和逆向行為:偏好問題?

Chad Kendall

Herding and contrarian strategies produce informational inefficiencies when investors ignore private information, instead following or bucking past trends. In a simple market model, I show theoretically that investors with prospect theory preferences generically follow herding or contrarian strategies, but do so because of future returns as opposed to past trends. I conduct a laboratory experiment to test the theory and obtain an estimate of the distribution of preferences in the subject population. I find that approximately 70% of subjects have preferences that induce herding. Using the preference estimates, I quantify informational efficiencies and predict trade behavior in more general environments.

當投資者忽視私人信息，轉而追隨或逆市過去的趨勢時，羊群和反向策略會產(chǎn)生信息效率低下。在一個簡單的市場模型中，我從理論上表明，具有前景理論偏好的投資者通常遵循羊群策略或反向策略，但這樣做是因為未來的回報與過去的趨勢相反。我進行了一個實驗室實驗，以測試該理論，并獲得了偏好在受試者群體中的分布的估計。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，大約70%的受試者有誘導羊群效應的偏好。利用偏好估計，我量化了信息效率，并預測了更一般環(huán)境中的交易行為。

?

?

14.Paying Outsourced Labor: Direct Evidence from Linked Temp Agency-Worker-Client Data

支付外包勞動力:臨時工機構-工人-客戶數(shù)據(jù)的直接證據(jù)

Andres Drenik, Simon J?ger, Pascuel Plotkin, Benjamin Schoefer

We estimate how much firms differentiate pay premia between regular and outsourced workers in temp agency work arrangements. We leverage unique Argentinian administrative data that feature links between user firms (the workplaces where temp workers perform their labor) and temp agencies (their formal employers). We estimate that a high-wage user firm that pays a regular worker a 10% premium pays a temp worker on average only a 4.9% premium, compared to what these workers would earn in a low-wage user firm in their respective work arrangements. This 49% pass-through constitutes the midpoint between the benchmarks for insiders (one) and the competitive spot-labor market (zero).

我們估計了公司在臨時機構工作安排中如何區(qū)分正規(guī)工人和外包工人的薪酬溢價。我們利用了阿根廷獨特的行政數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)顯示了用戶公司(臨時工人工作的工作場所)和臨時機構(他們的正式雇主)之間的聯(lián)系。我們估計，與低工資用戶公司的工人在各自的工作安排中獲得的收入相比，向正式工人支付10%保險費的高工資用戶公司平均只向臨時工人支付4.9%的保險費。這49%的傳遞構成了內(nèi)部人員基準(1)和競爭激烈的現(xiàn)貨勞動力市場基準(0)之間的中點。

?

?

15.Fiscal Incentives for Conflict: Evidence from India's Red Corridor

沖突的財政激勵:來自印度紅色走廊的證據(jù)

Jacob N. Shapiro, Oliver Vanden Eynde

Can tax regimes shape the incentives to engage in armed conflict? Indian mining royalties benefit the states but are set by the central government. India's Maoist belt is mineral rich, and states are responsible for counterinsurgency operations. We exploit the introduction of a 10% ad valorem tax on iron ore that increased royalty collections of the affected states by a factor of 10. We find that the royalty hike was followed by a significant intensification of violence in districts with important iron ore deposits. The royalty increase was also followed by an increase in illegal mining activity in iron mines.

稅收制度能激勵人們參與武裝沖突嗎?印度的采礦特許權使用費有利于邦政府，但由中央政府制定。印度毛派地區(qū)礦產(chǎn)豐富，各邦負責反叛亂行動。我們利用對鐵礦石征收10%從價稅的做法，將受影響國家的特許權使用費征收提高了10倍。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，礦區(qū)使用費上調(diào)之后，擁有重要鐵礦資源的地區(qū)的暴力事件顯著加劇。特許權使用費增加后，鐵礦的非法采礦活動也增加了。

?

16.Does Market Interaction Erode Moral Values?

市場互動會侵蝕道德價值觀嗎?

Bj?rn Bartling, Ernst Fehr, Yagiz ?zdemir

The widespread use of markets leads to unprecedented material well-being in many societies. We study whether market interaction, as a side effect, erodes moral values. In an influential paper, Falk and Szech (2013) provide experimental data that seem to suggest that “market interaction erodes moral values.” Although we replicate their main treatment effect, we show that additional treatments are necessary to corroborate their conclusion. These treatments reveal that playing repeatedly, and not market interaction, causes the erosion of moral values. Our paper thus shows that neither Falk and Szech's data nor our data support the claim that markets erode morals.

市場的廣泛使用給許多社會帶來了前所未有的物質(zhì)福祉。我們研究市場互動作為一種副作用是否會侵蝕道德價值觀。在一篇有影響力的論文中，Falk和Szech(2013)提供的實驗數(shù)據(jù)似乎表明，“市場互動侵蝕了道德價值觀”。雖然我們復制了他們的主要治療效果，但我們表明，額外的治療是必要的，以證實他們的結論。這些治療方法表明，反復玩游戲，而不是與市場互動，會導致道德價值觀的侵蝕。因此，我們的論文表明，Falk和Szech的數(shù)據(jù)和我們的數(shù)據(jù)都不支持市場侵蝕道德的說法。

?