文章來(lái)源：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》Jul 22th 2023 期 Leaders 欄目 The world economy 世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

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Economists are not known for their?optimism, but today their?good cheer?is palpable. Not long ago it seemed that an American recession was inevitable, as the Federal Reserve kept raising interest rates to fight inflation. Other central banks were?following suit, their inflation?problems made worse by?a surging dollar—a particular problem for?the emerging markets that borrow and trade using America’s currency. Yet news that America’s?headline rate of annual inflation?fell to 3% in June has?fed hopes?that the Fed’s next rate rise, which is expected on July 26th, will be its last and that other central banks might relax, too. Stocks are up, bond yields are down and the greenback is at close to its weakest since the Fed began raising rates.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家并不以其樂觀著稱，但今天他們的喜悅顯而易見。不久之前，由于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)持續(xù)提高利率以抑制通貨膨脹，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退似乎是不可避免的。其他中央銀行也在效仿，他們的通貨膨脹問(wèn)題由于美元的飆升而變得更加嚴(yán)重——這對(duì)于以美元借貸和貿(mào)易的新興市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)特別大的問(wèn)題。然而，6月份美國(guó)年度通貨膨脹率降至3%的消息讓人們?nèi)计鹆诉@樣的希望：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下一次加息(預(yù)計(jì)在7月26日)將是最后一次加息，其他央行可能也會(huì)放松政策。股票上漲，債券收益率下降，美元接近自美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始加息以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。

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The surge of hope is all the more unusual because?the world economy is?slowing down. On July 17th China reported that its economy grew by a mere 0.8% in the second quarter compared with the prior three months, even though many had expected a boom after the government abandoned its “zero-covid” policy in December. Global manufacturing has suffered as consumers came out of lockdowns and began eating out more and buying less home-office equipment. And, although America grew strongly in the first half of the year, most forecasters expect the economy soon to slow.

由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩，這種希望的高漲顯得更加不同尋常。7月17日，中國(guó)報(bào)告稱其相比上一季度，其經(jīng)濟(jì)在第二季度僅增長(zhǎng)0.8%，然后許多人預(yù)計(jì)在去年12月疫情“放開”后會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮。隨著消費(fèi)者走出“家門”并開始外出用餐、購(gòu)買更少的家庭辦公設(shè)備，全球制造業(yè)也受到了影響。雖然美國(guó)上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，但大多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)師預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)很快將放緩。

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Increasingly, however, they are not expecting it to shrink.?And?growth cooling?just enough to bring down inflation without a recession is the best-case scenario for overheated economies like America’s. Even the disappointing reopening in China, which does not have an inflation problem of its own, has meant a feared surge in global commodities prices has not materialised. That has helped Europe, which has replaced piped Russian gas with shipments of the liquefied sort.

然而，越來(lái)越多的人并不期望經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)收縮。對(duì)于像美國(guó)這樣過(guò)熱的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)降溫到足以在不引發(fā)衰退的情況下降低通脹是最好的情況。盡管中國(guó)在疫情后的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)展不如人們所期望（中國(guó)本身沒有通貨膨脹問(wèn)題），但這也意味著原本擔(dān)心的全球大宗商品價(jià)格激增并未出現(xiàn)。這對(duì)歐洲有所幫助，歐洲已經(jīng)用液化天然氣取代了從俄羅斯輸送的管道天然氣。

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Yet it would be a mistake to assume that the world economy is now on track for a so-called soft landing, for three reasons.?The first is that inflation, though lower, remains far above central banks’ 2% targets.?The fall in America’s headline rate has been driven by a one-off decline in energy prices: exclude food and energy, and prices are 4.8% higher than a year ago. In the euro zone the figure is 5.5%, and in both economies wages are still growing far in excess of productivity growth.

然而，如果認(rèn)為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)在正朝著所謂的軟著陸方向發(fā)展，那就大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)了，原因有三。第一個(gè)原因是，盡管通貨膨脹率下降，但仍然遠(yuǎn)高于中央銀行的2%目標(biāo)。美國(guó)整體通脹率下降是因?yàn)槟茉磧r(jià)格的一次性下降：不包括食品和能源，物價(jià)比一年前高出4.8%。在歐元區(qū)，這個(gè)數(shù)字是5.5%，而在這兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，工資仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)。

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In other words, the rich world?has some way to go?before it is fully disinflated—and many economists expect the last mile to be the hardest. Though stubborn inflation of, say, 3-4% does not grab headlines as much as recent alarming price rises, it would still be a problem for central bankers. They might have to?choose between?more tightening than is currently expected?and?tacitly abandoning their 2% goals. Either would?be disruptive for?asset markets?and potentially for?the real economy, too.

換句話說(shuō)，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家在完全抑制通貨膨脹方面還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走，許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)“最后一英里”將是最困難的。盡管頑固的通貨膨脹率（例如3-4%）并沒有像最近引起人們警惕的物價(jià)上漲那樣引起轟動(dòng)，但它仍然是中央銀行家們需要解決的問(wèn)題。他們可能不得不在更緊縮的政策和默認(rèn)放棄2%目標(biāo)之間做出選擇。任何一種選擇都可能對(duì)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生破壞性影響，并可能對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成影響。

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The second risk is that, whereas the world is seeing the benefits of cooling off now, the costs may not be visible for a while.?So far America’s labour market has rebalanced fairly painlessly by reducing vacancies rather than jobs. Hiring is still strong and lay-offs are rare. With job openings less plentiful, wage growth has fallen. Yet nobody knows for how long the jobs market can?shed fat rather than muscle—and in recent months the fall in job openings has stalled ominously. Across the rich world there is evidence that firms, scarred by the memory of labour shortages, have been hoarding workers they don’t need; in several countries average hours worked have been falling. Should companies decide that it is too costly to cling to workers who may or may not be needed in the future, then lay-offs could rise abruptly.

第二個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，雖然現(xiàn)在世界正在看到經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫的好處，但代價(jià)可能需要一段時(shí)間才能顯現(xiàn)。到目前為止，美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)通過(guò)減少“不必要的”招聘而不是裁員來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)相對(duì)輕松的再平衡。招聘仍然強(qiáng)勁，裁員很少。隨著招聘減少，工資增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)放緩。然而，沒有人知道就業(yè)市場(chǎng)在“減少不必要的崗位而非裁員”上還會(huì)持續(xù)多久。最近幾個(gè)月“就業(yè)崗位減少”已經(jīng)停滯不前，這是一個(gè)不祥的跡象。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，有證據(jù)表明企業(yè)因?yàn)槭苓^(guò)“勞動(dòng)力短缺”的苦而囤積了他們不需要的工人；在一些國(guó)家，平均工作時(shí)長(zhǎng)一直在下降。如果企業(yè)決定堅(jiān)持留住未來(lái)可能需要也可能不需要的工人成本過(guò)高，那么裁員可能會(huì)突然增加。

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The third danger is that divergence among the world’s big economies means that even as the pressure on the Fed lifts, policymakers elsewhere remain worried. Britain is celebrating a larger-than-expected fall in annual inflation in June, but with underlying price and wage growth of around 7% it remains a troubling outlier (see Britain section). Japan has barely started its monetary tightening; with inflation rising, the Bank of Japan may adjust its cap on long-term bond yields again at the end of July. China could be contending with a structural growth slowdown in which the economy is weighed down by bad debts, as Japan’s was in the early 1990s, and in which inflation is persistently too low.

第三個(gè)危險(xiǎn)是，世界各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的不同意味著，盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的壓力有所減輕，但其他地方的政策制定者仍然感到擔(dān)憂。英國(guó)正在慶祝6月份年度通貨膨脹率的下降超出預(yù)期，但由于基礎(chǔ)價(jià)格和工資增長(zhǎng)率約為7%，它仍然是一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的特例（請(qǐng)參見英國(guó)部分）。日本幾乎沒有開始貨幣緊縮政策；隨著通貨膨脹上升，日本央行可能會(huì)在7月底再次調(diào)整其長(zhǎng)期債券收益率上限。中國(guó)可能正在應(yīng)對(duì)結(jié)構(gòu)性增長(zhǎng)放緩，其經(jīng)濟(jì)因壞賬而受到拖累（就像日本在20世紀(jì)90年代初期一樣），同時(shí)通貨膨脹率持續(xù)過(guò)低。

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Wherever you look, in other words, there remains immense uncertainty about where inflation and interest rates will eventually settle. By all means celebrate good news. But the world economy has not yet escaped unscathed.

換句話說(shuō)，無(wú)論你看哪里，通貨膨脹和利率最終會(huì)穩(wěn)定在什么水平仍存在巨大的不確定性。盡管放心去慶祝好消息。不過(guò)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然會(huì)受到一些負(fù)面因素的影響。