Journal of Development Economics （雙月刊）2013年第1期

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——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

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1.Early childhood exposure to health insurance and adolescent outcomes: Evidence from rural China

兒童早期接觸健康保險(xiǎn)與青少年結(jié)局:來(lái)自中國(guó)農(nóng)村的證據(jù)

Wei Huang, Hong Liu

This paper examines the impact of exposure to public health insurance in early life on outcomes in adolescence in rural China. Exploiting the variation in the county-by-county rollout of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) between 2003 and 2008, we find that exposure to the NCMS during ages 0–5 significantly improves health, cognitive, and educational outcomes during adolescence. In contrast, exposure after age five has no significant effects. Our further investigation provides evidence for several underlying mechanisms, such as improved prenatal care and birth outcomes, better preventive medical protection against childhood diseases, and lower risk in medical expenditure.

本文研究了中國(guó)農(nóng)村青少年早期接受公共醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)對(duì)其健康狀況的影響。利用2003年至2008年間各個(gè)縣推行新合作醫(yī)療計(jì)劃的差異，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在0-5歲期間接觸新合作醫(yī)療計(jì)劃顯著改善了青少年時(shí)期的健康、認(rèn)知和教育成果。相比之下，五歲以后的接觸沒(méi)有顯著的影響。我們的進(jìn)一步調(diào)查提供了一些潛在機(jī)制的證據(jù)，如改善產(chǎn)前護(hù)理和分娩結(jié)果，更好的預(yù)防兒童疾病的醫(yī)療保護(hù)，以及降低醫(yī)療支出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

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2.Unilateral divorce rights, domestic violence and women’s agency: Evidence from the Egyptian?

單方面離婚權(quán)利、家庭暴力與婦女機(jī)構(gòu):來(lái)自埃及的證據(jù)

?Viola Corradini, Giulia Buccione

We investigate whether the introduction of the right to unilateral, no-fault, divorce for women has an impact on domestic abuse, investments in children’s human capital, women’s labor force participation, and other proxies of women’s agency in the context of the Egyptian?Khul?reform of 2000. We employ a difference in differences design, comparing mothers of children older than the age cutoffs used to assign the children’s custody to the mother, to mothers of younger children, before and after the reform. The first group of women is less affected by the legislative change in terms of being able to make credible divorce threats because it faces higher divorce costs, including the loss of alimony and the marital house. Results suggest that the introduction of?Khul?decreased domestic abuse and increased investments into children’s education while we do not find significant effects on labor force participation.

我們調(diào)查了在2000年埃及Khul改革的背景下，婦女單方面無(wú)過(guò)錯(cuò)離婚權(quán)的引入是否對(duì)家庭虐待、兒童人力資本投資、婦女勞動(dòng)力參與和其他婦女機(jī)構(gòu)的代理產(chǎn)生了影響。我們采用了雙重差分設(shè)計(jì)，比較了在改革前后，孩子年齡大于將孩子監(jiān)護(hù)權(quán)分配給母親的年齡界限的母親，以及孩子年齡較小的母親。第一類婦女在能夠提出可信的離婚威脅方面較少受到立法變化的影響，因?yàn)樗媾R更高的離婚成本，包括失去贍養(yǎng)費(fèi)和婚房。結(jié)果表明，Khul的引入減少了家庭暴力，增加了子女教育投入，但對(duì)勞動(dòng)力參與的影響不顯著。

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3. Across a few prohibitive miles: The impact of the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China

跨越令人望而卻步的幾英里:中國(guó)反貧困搬遷計(jì)劃的影響研究

Across a few prohibitive miles: The impact of the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China

Li Zhang, Lunyu Xie, Xinye Zheng

Many households are confined to remote rural villages in the developing world. This study examines the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China, considering the village-to-town relocation from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors induced by the program. While exploring a novel administrative data set on impoverished people in a Chinese county, we discovered that the program significantly increased the participants’ income by 9.61%, driven mainly by the increase in wage income. The empirical findings are consistent with the Roy-model perspective, which states that rural households with comparative advantage in non-agricultural sectors could benefit from relocation to nearby towns. This study provides new evidence that mobility barriers across sectors exist even on a small geographic scale in rural areas. The results of the cost–benefit analysis suggest that relocation of households in remote rural areas is a feasible policy tool for overcoming such mobility barriers.

許多家庭被限制在發(fā)展中國(guó)家偏遠(yuǎn)的農(nóng)村。本文研究了中國(guó)的扶貧搬遷計(jì)劃，考慮了扶貧搬遷計(jì)劃導(dǎo)致的農(nóng)業(yè)部門向非農(nóng)業(yè)部門的村莊轉(zhuǎn)移。在探索中國(guó)一個(gè)縣貧困人口的新行政數(shù)據(jù)集時(shí)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，該項(xiàng)目主要是由工資收入的增加驅(qū)動(dòng)的，參與者的收入顯著增加了9.61%。實(shí)證結(jié)果與roy模型的觀點(diǎn)一致，即在非農(nóng)部門具有比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的農(nóng)村家庭可以從搬遷到附近城鎮(zhèn)中獲益。本研究提供了新的證據(jù)，表明農(nóng)村地區(qū)即使在較小的地理范圍內(nèi)也存在跨部門流動(dòng)障礙。成本效益分析結(jié)果表明，在偏遠(yuǎn)農(nóng)村地區(qū)搬遷家庭是克服這種流動(dòng)障礙的可行政策工具。

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4.The effect of traffic cameras on police effort: Evidence from India

交通攝像頭對(duì)警察工作的影響:來(lái)自印度的證據(jù)

Emily Conover, Daniel Kraynak, Prakarsh Singh

Using a novel data set on CCTV cameras in Chandigarh, India, we test whether police officers’ effort changes in response to the presence of traffic cameras. Although the cameras are useful in sanctioning drivers, they can also capture the passive (shirking) or active (rent-seeking) corruption of officers. Accounting for the spatial and temporal variations in the operation of the cameras, we find that the presence of a functioning camera results in an increase in?on-the-ground?tickets. Although we do not rule out possible decreases in rent-seeking behavior, a decline in passive corruption appears to be driving the increase in officer ticketing behavior, particularly for the most common vehicles and violations that can be observed from the CCTV cameras. Our findings indicate that remote monitoring technology can serve, if not a substitute for, then as a complement to?on-the-ground?enforcement.

利用印度昌迪加爾閉路電視攝像頭的一組新數(shù)據(jù)，我們測(cè)試了警察的努力是否會(huì)隨著交通攝像頭的出現(xiàn)而改變。雖然攝像頭在制裁司機(jī)方面很有用，但它們也可以捕捉到警察被動(dòng)(逃避)或主動(dòng)(尋租)的腐敗行為?？紤]到攝像機(jī)操作的空間和時(shí)間變化，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)功能攝像機(jī)的存在導(dǎo)致了地面門票的增加。雖然我們不排除尋租行為可能減少的可能性，但被動(dòng)腐敗的減少似乎推動(dòng)了警官開(kāi)罰單行為的增加，特別是對(duì)最常見(jiàn)的車輛和從閉路電視攝像頭中可以觀察到的違規(guī)行為。我們的研究結(jié)果表明，遠(yuǎn)程監(jiān)控技術(shù)即使不能替代，也可以作為對(duì)實(shí)地執(zhí)法的補(bǔ)充。

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5.Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market

新興市場(chǎng)的特殊沖擊和總體波動(dòng)

Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini, Damiano Sandri

This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile. We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.

本文利用智利公司的機(jī)密數(shù)據(jù)首次評(píng)估了特殊沖擊對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)總體波動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，特質(zhì)沖擊對(duì)總銷售額波動(dòng)的影響超過(guò)40%。盡管智利的市場(chǎng)集中度較高，但這一貢獻(xiàn)比以往以發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體為基礎(chǔ)的研究中記錄的要小。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這一發(fā)現(xiàn)可以解釋為，大公司的波動(dòng)性較小，在智利公司之間的傳播效應(yīng)較弱。

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6.The short-lived effects of unconditional cash transfers to refugees

無(wú)條件向難民轉(zhuǎn)移現(xiàn)金的短期影響

Onur Alt?nda?, Stephen D. O’Connell

We study two year-long unconditional cash-based assistance programs for Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and show that they improve consumption, child well-being, food security, and reduce livelihood coping. Despite high transfer values, we find no evidence of lasting effects at six months after either program ends. Households spend transfers on basic needs and take children out of work and re-enroll them in school. Beneficiaries increase cash savings and their stock of durable goods, but liquidate and spend these assets during or soon after the beneficiary period. The results are similar for longer assistance periods and across transfer modalities.

我們對(duì)在黎巴嫩的敘利亞難民進(jìn)行了為期兩年的無(wú)條件現(xiàn)金援助項(xiàng)目研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)這些項(xiàng)目改善了消費(fèi)、兒童福利、糧食安全，并減少了生計(jì)應(yīng)對(duì)。盡管轉(zhuǎn)移價(jià)值很高，但我們沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)任何證據(jù)表明在兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目結(jié)束后6個(gè)月內(nèi)存在持久影響。家庭將轉(zhuǎn)移支付用于基本需求，讓兒童失業(yè)并讓他們重新入學(xué)。受益人增加現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)蓄和耐用品庫(kù)存，但在受益人期間或之后不久將這些資產(chǎn)變現(xiàn)和支出。對(duì)于較長(zhǎng)的援助期和不同的轉(zhuǎn)移方式，結(jié)果是相似的。

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7.Sanitation and property tax compliance: Analyzing the social contract in Brazil

衛(wèi)生和財(cái)產(chǎn)稅的遵守:分析巴西的社會(huì)契約

Evan Plous Kresch, Mark Walker, Michael Carlos Best, Fran?ois Gerard, Joana Naritom

This paper investigates the role that sanitation plays in upholding the social contract, whereby citizens pay taxes in exchange for governments providing goods and services. We study the case of Manaus, Brazil, where sewer connections vary considerably across the city and property taxes are calculated in a presumptive manner that does not account for a household’s access to sanitation. We find that households with access to the city sewer system are significantly more likely to pay their property tax, relative to households that only have access to latrines or lack access to improved sanitation entirely. Our evidence is consistent with a role for the social contract in this decision, as households with sewer systems are more likely to have positive attitudes towards the municipal government.

Evan Plous Kresch, Mark Walker, Michael Carlos Best, Fran?ois Gerard, Joana Naritom

本文調(diào)查了衛(wèi)生設(shè)施在維護(hù)社會(huì)契約中的作用，即公民繳納稅款，以換取政府提供商品和服務(wù)。我們研究了巴西瑪瑙斯(Manaus)的情況，該市的下水道接駁情況在全市范圍內(nèi)存在很大差異，財(cái)產(chǎn)稅的計(jì)算方式是假定的，沒(méi)有考慮到一個(gè)家庭獲得衛(wèi)生設(shè)施的情況。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與只有廁所或完全沒(méi)有改善過(guò)的衛(wèi)生設(shè)施的家庭相比，能夠使用城市下水道系統(tǒng)的家庭明顯更有可能繳納財(cái)產(chǎn)稅。我們的證據(jù)與社會(huì)契約在這一決定中的作用是一致的，因?yàn)橛邢滤老到y(tǒng)的家庭更有可能對(duì)市政府持積極態(tài)度。

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8.Knowledge, stigma, and HIV testing: An analysis of a widespread HIV/AIDS program

知識(shí)、恥辱和艾滋病毒檢測(cè):對(duì)廣泛傳播的艾滋病毒/艾滋病項(xiàng)目的分析

Research article only

Knowledge, stigma, and HIV testing: An analysis of a widespread HIV/AIDS program

Dean Yang, James Allen, Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell, Hang Yu

Using randomized methodologies, we study a common community HIV/AIDS program that seeks to promote HIV testing by improving knowledge and reducing stigmatizing attitudes. Contrary to expectations, the program has a substantial?negative?effect on HIV testing rates. We provide evidence of likely mechanisms behind the program’s negative effect: it inadvertently increased misinformation about HIV transmission methods, and worsened HIV-related stigmatizing attitudes. Subsequent household-level randomized treatments providing correct information and addressing stigma concerns counteract the program’s negative effect on HIV testing. These findings highlight the importance of improving knowledge and alleviating stigma concerns when promoting HIV testing.

我們采用隨機(jī)方法研究了一個(gè)共同的社區(qū)艾滋病項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目旨在通過(guò)提高知識(shí)和減少污名化態(tài)度來(lái)促進(jìn)艾滋病檢測(cè)。與預(yù)期相反，該計(jì)劃對(duì)艾滋病毒檢測(cè)率產(chǎn)生了實(shí)質(zhì)性的負(fù)面影響。我們提供了該項(xiàng)目負(fù)面影響背后可能機(jī)制的證據(jù):它無(wú)意中增加了關(guān)于艾滋病毒傳播方法的錯(cuò)誤信息，并惡化了與艾滋病毒有關(guān)的污名化態(tài)度。隨后的家庭隨機(jī)治療提供了正確的信息，并解決了污名問(wèn)題，抵消了該項(xiàng)目對(duì)艾滋病毒檢測(cè)的負(fù)面影響。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)調(diào)了在推廣艾滋病毒檢測(cè)時(shí)提高知識(shí)和減輕污名問(wèn)題的重要性。

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9.The effect of forest access on the market for fuelwood in India

進(jìn)入森林對(duì)印度薪柴市場(chǎng)的影響

Branko Bo?kovi?, Ujjayant Chakravorty, Martino Pelli, Anna Risch

Fuelwood collection by poor people is often cited as the most important cause of deforestation in developing countries. Using household survey data from India, we show that households located farther away from the forest spend more time in fuelwood collection. These households are likely to sell more fuelwood and buy less. That is, reduced access to forests?increases?fuelwood collection and sale. This counter-intuitive behavior is triggered by the higher fixed costs of households living farther from the forest arising from larger travel times. By combining two different datasets, we can quantify net fuelwood sales out of a village. We show that a fifth of the fuelwood collected is consumed outside of rural areas, in nearby towns and cities. Our estimates suggest that fuelwood burning may account for roughly 14%–20% of the typical daily?PM2.5?load in a city like New Delhi.

窮人采集薪材經(jīng)常被認(rèn)為是發(fā)展中國(guó)家森林砍伐的最重要原因。利用印度的家庭調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，距離森林較遠(yuǎn)的家庭花更多的時(shí)間收集薪柴。這些家庭可能會(huì)出售更多的薪材而減少購(gòu)買。也就是說(shuō)，減少對(duì)森林的利用增加了薪材的收集和銷售。這種反直覺(jué)的行為是由居住在遠(yuǎn)離森林的家庭因旅行時(shí)間增加而增加的固定成本引發(fā)的。通過(guò)結(jié)合兩個(gè)不同的數(shù)據(jù)集，我們可以量化一個(gè)村莊的薪材凈銷售額。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，收集到的木柴中有五分之一是在農(nóng)村以外的地區(qū)，在附近的城鎮(zhèn)和城市消耗的。我們的估計(jì)表明，在新德里這樣的城市，燃燒木柴可能占PM2.5典型日負(fù)荷的14%-20%。

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10.The deep roots of rebellion

叛亂的深層根源

Gaia Narciso, Battista Severgnini

This paper analyzes the triggers of rebellion and documents the historical roots of conflict using a unique dataset at the individual level. Drawing on evidence from the Famine (1845–1850) and its effect on the Irish Revolution (1916–1921), we show how negative shocks can explain social unrest in the long run. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of surnames, which enables the study of socio-cultural persistence over time. The instrumental variable analysis based on the wind direction that determined the spread of the potato blight that caused the Famine provides further evidence in support of the legacy of rebellion.

本文利用個(gè)體層面的獨(dú)特?cái)?shù)據(jù)集，分析了叛亂的觸發(fā)因素，并記錄了沖突的歷史根源。根據(jù)饑荒(1845-1850)及其對(duì)愛(ài)爾蘭革命(1916-1921)的影響，我們展示了負(fù)面沖擊如何在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)解釋社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩。對(duì)姓氏的分析證實(shí)了這些發(fā)現(xiàn)，這使研究社會(huì)文化的持久性成為可能。基于決定了引起饑荒的馬鈴薯疫病傳播的風(fēng)向的工具變量分析，為叛亂的遺產(chǎn)提供了進(jìn)一步的證據(jù)。

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11.Locking crops to unlock investment: Experimental evidence on warrantage in Burkina Faso

Clara Delavallade, Susan Godlonton

Warrantage is an innovative model of rural finance with the potential to overcome credit, crop storage, and behavioral constraints through a localized inventory credit system. Using a randomized controlled trial varying household level access to warrantage, we measure its impacts among households interested in participating. Among treated households, take-up of storage is high, while credit take-up is moderate. Treated households primarily store grains sell their production over an extended period, at a time when prices are higher resulting in higher sales revenue. Increased incomes are spent on long-term investments, including education, livestock, and agricultural inputs for the subsequent year.

擔(dān)保是農(nóng)村金融的一種創(chuàng)新模式，有潛力通過(guò)本地化的庫(kù)存信貸制度克服信貸、作物儲(chǔ)存和行為約束。通過(guò)一項(xiàng)隨機(jī)對(duì)照試驗(yàn)，改變家庭獲得擔(dān)保的水平，我們衡量其對(duì)有意參與的家庭的影響。在被治療的家庭中，存儲(chǔ)占用很高，而信貸占用適中。被處理的家庭主要儲(chǔ)存谷物，在價(jià)格較高的時(shí)候出售其生產(chǎn)的糧食，從而增加銷售收入。增加的收入用于下一年的長(zhǎng)期投資，包括教育、牲畜和農(nóng)業(yè)投入。

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12.Production and persistence of criminal skills: Evidence from a high-crime context

犯罪技能的產(chǎn)生和持續(xù):來(lái)自高犯罪率背景的證據(jù)

Maria A. Escobar, Santiago Tobón, Martín Vanegas-Arias

We study criminal skills production and persistence by looking at the universe of incarceration spells and violent and non-violent property crime reports in Colombia. Leveraging detailed and geo-coded information, we find that property crime reports are higher around prisons on the days inmates are released. Two types of offenders drive the impacts: (i) property crime specialists—inmates with a prior conviction for violent or non-violent theft; and (ii) trainees—inmates with different criminal records but who interacted heavily with specialists during incarceration. We examine whether participation in rehabilitation programs or longer prison spells mitigate these effects and find no evidence for either type of offender. Although we are unaware of how many crimes these offenders would commit absent incarceration, these results suggest that incarceration’s specific deterrence or rehabilitation effects might be weak for these populations and that, in some circumstances, prison can foster rather than prevent crime.

我們研究了犯罪技能的產(chǎn)生和持續(xù)通過(guò)觀察監(jiān)禁期以及哥倫比亞的暴力和非暴力財(cái)產(chǎn)犯罪報(bào)告。利用詳細(xì)的地理編碼信息，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在囚犯被釋放的那天，監(jiān)獄附近的財(cái)產(chǎn)犯罪報(bào)告更高。兩類罪犯推動(dòng)了這種影響:(i)財(cái)產(chǎn)犯罪專家——有暴力或非暴力盜竊前科的囚犯;以及(ii)受訓(xùn)人員——有不同犯罪記錄但在監(jiān)禁期間與專家互動(dòng)頻繁的囚犯。我們研究了是否參與康復(fù)計(jì)劃或更長(zhǎng)的刑期減輕了這些影響，并沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)任何證據(jù)表明這兩種類型的罪犯。雖然我們不知道這些罪犯在沒(méi)有監(jiān)禁的情況下會(huì)犯下多少罪行，但這些結(jié)果表明，監(jiān)禁的特定威懾或康復(fù)效果可能對(duì)這些人口來(lái)說(shuō)很弱，在某些情況下，監(jiān)獄可以促進(jìn)而不是預(yù)防犯罪。

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13.Manufacturing employment and women’s agency: Evidence from Lesotho 2004–2014

Louise Grogan

This paper examines the impact of manufacturing employment on women’s health and decision-making power within households in Lesotho. Under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000, the employment of women in ready-made garment (RMG) factories in new industrial zones greatly increased. Subsequent shocks to international demand for textile products created by the phase-out of the Multi-Fibre Agreement and the 2008 Financial Crisis temporarily reduced well-paid RMG work opportunities. Women residing closer to the industrial zones were particularly affected. These changes are exploited for identification of causal impacts. Employment in the RMG sector is found to substantially increase women’s say in decisions about the allocation of household resources and own health.

本文研究了萊索托制造業(yè)就業(yè)對(duì)婦女健康和家庭內(nèi)決策權(quán)的影響。根據(jù)2000年美國(guó)《非洲增長(zhǎng)與機(jī)會(huì)法案》，婦女在新工業(yè)區(qū)成衣工廠的就業(yè)大大增加。由于多纖維協(xié)議的逐步取消和2008年的金融危機(jī)，國(guó)際紡織產(chǎn)品需求隨后受到?jīng)_擊，這暫時(shí)減少了RMG的高薪工作機(jī)會(huì)。居住在工業(yè)區(qū)附近的婦女尤其受到影響。這些變化被用來(lái)識(shí)別因果影響。據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)，RMG部門的就業(yè)大大增加了婦女在分配家庭資源和自身健康方面的決定中的發(fā)言權(quán)。

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14.Are age-of-marriage laws enforced? Evidence from developing countries

婚齡法執(zhí)行了嗎?來(lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家的證據(jù)

Matthew Collin, Theodore Talbot

Child marriage is associated with negative outcomes for women and girls. Many countries have raised the legal age of marriage, but the incidence of early marriage remains high. We propose a simple test for whether laws are effective in deterring early marriage and apply it to data from both the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) covering over 100 countries using statistical tests derived from the regression discontinuity literature. By this measure, many countries are not enforcing the laws on their books, and enforcement may be not be improving over time. We argue that survey data provides a simple way to test if laws are being enforced and are binding, and interpret our results to show that legal change needs to be accompanied by better enforcement and greater monitoring to be effective.

童婚與婦女和女孩的負(fù)面后果有關(guān)。許多國(guó)家已經(jīng)提高了法定結(jié)婚年齡，但早婚的發(fā)生率仍然很高。我們提出了一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的檢驗(yàn)方法，以檢驗(yàn)法律是否有效地阻止早婚，并將其應(yīng)用于涵蓋100多個(gè)國(guó)家的人口與健康調(diào)查(DHS)和多指標(biāo)類集調(diào)查(MICS)的數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)使用了來(lái)自斷點(diǎn)回歸文獻(xiàn)的統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)。通過(guò)這一措施，許多國(guó)家沒(méi)有執(zhí)行其賬面上的法律，執(zhí)法可能沒(méi)有隨著時(shí)間的推移而改善。我們認(rèn)為，調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)提供了一種簡(jiǎn)單的方法來(lái)測(cè)試法律是否得到執(zhí)行和是否具有約束力，并解釋了我們的結(jié)果，以表明法律變化需要更好的執(zhí)行和更大的監(jiān)督才能有效。

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15.Religious leaders and rule of law

宗教領(lǐng)袖和法治

Sultan Mehmood, Avner Seror

In this paper, we provide systematic evidence of how historical religious institutions affect the rule of law. In a difference-in-differences framework, we show that districts in Pakistan where the historical presence of religious institutions is higher, rule of law is worse. This deterioration is economically significant, persistent, and likely explained by religious leaders gaining political office. We explain these findings with a model where religious leaders leverage their high legitimacy to run for office and subvert the Courts. We test for and find no evidence supporting several competing explanations: the rise of secular wealthy landowners, dynastic political leaders and changes in voter attitudes are unable to account for the patterns in the data. Our estimates indicate that religious leaders expropriate rents through the legal system amounting to about 0.06 percent of GDP every year.

在本文中，我們提供了歷史宗教制度如何影響法治的系統(tǒng)證據(jù)。在雙重差分框架中，我們展示了巴基斯坦歷史上宗教機(jī)構(gòu)存在程度較高、法治較差的地區(qū)。這種惡化在經(jīng)濟(jì)上是顯著的、持續(xù)的，可能的原因是宗教領(lǐng)袖獲得了政治職位。我們用一個(gè)模型來(lái)解釋這些發(fā)現(xiàn)，在這個(gè)模型中，宗教領(lǐng)袖利用他們的高合法性來(lái)競(jìng)選公職，并顛覆法院。我們對(duì)幾種相互矛盾的解釋進(jìn)行了測(cè)試，但沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)支持這些解釋的證據(jù):世俗富裕地主的崛起、王朝政治領(lǐng)袖和選民態(tài)度的變化都無(wú)法解釋數(shù)據(jù)中的模式。我們的估計(jì)表明，宗教領(lǐng)袖通過(guò)法律制度征收的租金每年約占GDP的0.06%。

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16. The cost of fear: Impact of violence risk on child health during conflict

恐懼的代價(jià):沖突期間暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)兒童健康的影響

Augustin Tapsoba

The fear of exposure to conflict events often triggers changes in the behavior of economic agents even before/without any manifestation of violence in a given area. It generates a treatment status (exposure to the adverse effects of conflict) that goes beyond violence incidence. This paper develops a new approach to capture such treatment. Violence is modeled as a space–time stochastic process with an unknown underlying distribution that is backed out of the observed pattern of conflict events. A new risk measure is built from this density and used to evaluate the impact of conflict on child health using data from Ivory Coast and Uganda. The empirical evidence suggests that conflict is a local public bad, with cohorts of children exposed to high risk of violence equally suffering major health setbacks even when this risk does not materialize in violent events around them.

即使在某一地區(qū)未發(fā)生任何暴力行為之前，由于害怕受到?jīng)_突事件的影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)行動(dòng)者的行為往往也會(huì)發(fā)生變化。它產(chǎn)生了一種超越暴力發(fā)生率的治療狀態(tài)(暴露于沖突的不利影響)。本文開(kāi)發(fā)了一種新的方法來(lái)捕獲這種處理。暴力被建模為時(shí)空隨機(jī)過(guò)程，具有未知的潛在分布，這與觀察到的沖突事件模式不同。根據(jù)這一密度建立了一種新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并使用科特迪瓦和烏干達(dá)的數(shù)據(jù)評(píng)估沖突對(duì)兒童健康的影響。經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)表明，沖突對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)毓娛且患氖拢┞队诟弑┝︼L(fēng)險(xiǎn)的兒童群體同樣在健康方面遭受重大挫折，即使在他們周圍的暴力事件中沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

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17.Privatization of public goods: Evidence from the sanitation sector in Senegal

公共物品私有化:來(lái)自塞內(nèi)加爾衛(wèi)生部門的證據(jù)

Joshua W. Deutschmann, Jared Gars, Jean-Fran?ois Houde, Molly Lipscomb, Laura Schechter

Privatization of a public good (the management of sewage treatment centers in Dakar, Senegal) leads to an increase in the productivity of downstream sewage dumping companies and a decrease in downstream prices of the services they provide to households. We use the universe of legal dumping of sanitation waste from May 2009 to May 2018 to show that legal dumping increased substantially following privatization—on average an increase of 74%, or an increase of about 1640 trips to treatment centers each month. This is due to increased productivity of all trucks, not just those associated with the company managing the privatized treatment centers. Household-level survey data shows that downstream prices of legal sanitary dumping decreased by 5% following privatization, and DHS data shows that diarrhea rates among children under five decreased in Dakar relative to secondary cities in Senegal following privatization with no similar effect on respiratory illness as a placebo.

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18. Political uncertainty and the forms of state capture

政治上的不確定性和國(guó)家占領(lǐng)的形式

Nathan Canen, Rafael Ch, Leonard Wantchekon

This paper studies when and why firms prefer more direct forms of state capture (i.e., directly capturing tenured state officials who implement policy, as bureaucrats) to more indirect ones (i.e., using intermediaries, such as elected officials, to influence bureaucrats). First, we propose a principal–agent model under political uncertainty. Firms can induce market distortions by making transfers to incumbents, but such incumbents may be displaced in an election. Direct capture acts as an insurance for the firm, guaranteeing that its paid for distortions are kept in place even when the incumbent loses. We then show that policies thought to decrease state capture, such as improved bureaucrat selection, can have little to no effect once substitution towards indirect control is accounted for. We test the model’s predictions using a novel database on contractual arrangements between politicians, political brokers and businessmen in Benin. As proposed by the theory, we find that an increase in political uncertainty is associated with an increase in direct forms of capture. We conclude that electoral competition is not a sufficient mechanism to curb firms’ control of government when they can switch forms of state capture.

本文研究了企業(yè)何時(shí)以及為何更傾向于直接形式的國(guó)家捕獲(即直接捕獲執(zhí)行政策的終身國(guó)家官員，即官僚)，而不是更間接形式的國(guó)家捕獲(即利用選舉官員等中介機(jī)構(gòu)影響官僚)。首先，我們提出了一個(gè)政治不確定性下的委托代理模型。企業(yè)可以通過(guò)向在職者轉(zhuǎn)移資金來(lái)誘導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)扭曲，但這些在職者可能會(huì)在選舉中被取代。直接繳獲為企業(yè)提供了一種保險(xiǎn)，保證其為扭曲行為支付的費(fèi)用即使在在位者敗訴時(shí)也能保持不變。然后，我們表明，一旦考慮到對(duì)間接控制的替代，被認(rèn)為可以減少國(guó)家控制的政策，如改進(jìn)的官僚選擇，可能會(huì)幾乎沒(méi)有效果。我們使用貝寧政治家、政治經(jīng)紀(jì)人和商人之間的合同安排的新數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)來(lái)檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷念A(yù)測(cè)。正如該理論所提出的，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)政治不確定性的增加與直接捕獲形式的增加有關(guān)。我們的結(jié)論是，當(dāng)企業(yè)可以轉(zhuǎn)換政府占有的形式時(shí)，選舉競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并不是抑制企業(yè)對(duì)政府控制的充分機(jī)制。

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19.Pains, guns and moves: The effect of the U.S. opioid epidemic on Mexican migration

Gianmarco Daniele, Marco Le Moglie, Federico Masera

In this paper, we study how a positive economic shock to an illicit industry might foster migration. In 2010, a series of reforms to the U.S. health care system resulted in a shift in demand from legal opiates to heroin. This demand shock had considerable effects on Mexico, the main supplier of heroin consumed in the United States. We exploit variation in potential opium production at the municipal level in a difference-in-differences (DID) framework, which compares Mexican municipalities with different amounts of opium-suitable land before and after 2010. We find that people fled out of municipalities more suitable for opium production, many to areas close to the U.S. border and into the United States. This is due to the increase in violence and conflicts, as municipalities more suitable for opium became highly valuable to drug cartels. Overall, almost 95,000 people migrate within Mexico and 22,000 emigrate to the United States.

在本文中，我們研究了對(duì)非法行業(yè)的積極經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊如何促進(jìn)移民。2010年，美國(guó)醫(yī)療體系的一系列改革導(dǎo)致對(duì)鴉片類藥物的需求從合法轉(zhuǎn)向海洛因。這種需求沖擊對(duì)墨西哥產(chǎn)生了相當(dāng)大的影響，墨西哥是美國(guó)消費(fèi)的海洛因的主要供應(yīng)國(guó)。我們利用雙重差分(difference-in-difference, DID)框架，對(duì)墨西哥各城市在2010年前后擁有不同數(shù)量的適合種植鴉片的土地進(jìn)行了比較，從而揭示了各城市潛在鴉片產(chǎn)量的變化。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，人們逃離了更適合生產(chǎn)鴉片的城市，許多人逃到了靠近美國(guó)邊境的地區(qū)，并進(jìn)入了美國(guó)。這是由于暴力和沖突的增加，因?yàn)楦m合種植鴉片的城市對(duì)販毒集團(tuán)來(lái)說(shuō)變得非常有價(jià)值。總體而言，近9.5萬(wàn)人在墨西哥境內(nèi)移民，2.2萬(wàn)人移民到美國(guó)。

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20.Persuading voters to punish corrupt vote-buying candidates: Experimental evidence from a large-scale radio campaign in India

說(shuō)服選民懲罰腐敗的賄選候選人:來(lái)自印度一場(chǎng)大規(guī)模廣播競(jìng)選活動(dòng)的實(shí)驗(yàn)證據(jù)

Laura Schechter, Srinivasan Vasudevan

During the 2014 Indian general elections, we carried out a large-scale experiment randomizing a radio campaign highlighting the disadvantages of voting for corrupt vote-buying candidates. Official electoral data show that the radio campaign significantly decreased the vote share of parties that engaged in the most vote buying (as reported by journalists). Voter survey data show that the campaign increased the salience of corruption as an election issue and decreased voting for parties that offered gifts. From a policy perspective, we show that radio campaigns are a cost-effective method to influence voter behavior. From a measurement perspective, we show that journalist interviews can impartially identify vote-buying parties.

在2014年印度大選期間，我們進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)大規(guī)模實(shí)驗(yàn)，隨機(jī)安排了一場(chǎng)廣播競(jìng)選活動(dòng)，強(qiáng)調(diào)投票給賄選候選人的弊端。官方選舉數(shù)據(jù)顯示，電臺(tái)競(jìng)選活動(dòng)大大減少了(如記者報(bào)道的)購(gòu)買選票最多的政黨的選票份額。選民調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)顯示，競(jìng)選活動(dòng)增加了腐敗作為選舉問(wèn)題的重要性，并減少了對(duì)提供禮物的政黨的投票。從政策的角度來(lái)看，我們表明無(wú)線電競(jìng)選是影響選民行為的一種成本效益高的方法。從測(cè)量的角度，我們表明記者采訪能夠公正地識(shí)別賄選政黨。

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21.Trade-induced competition and ownership dynamics

貿(mào)易引發(fā)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和所有權(quán)動(dòng)態(tài)

Qing Hu, Wenjing Li, Chen Lin, Lai Wei

This paper documents a causal effect of trade-induced competition on firms’ ownership dynamics using the largest trade liberalization China has experienced, its accession to the World Trade Organization. By exploiting varying degrees of tariff reductions across industries, we find that firms that are more affected by competitive shocks experience a larger relative increase in their foreign ownership compared with those less affected. In addition, we find a stronger (weaker) effect for firms with a greater (lesser) demand for external financing and technology, which indicates the strategic role of foreign shareholders in empowering domestic firms to obtain financing and new technologies in a competitive market.

本文以中國(guó)加入世界貿(mào)易組織這一最大的貿(mào)易自由化為例，研究了貿(mào)易競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)企業(yè)所有權(quán)動(dòng)態(tài)的因果影響。通過(guò)利用各行業(yè)不同程度的關(guān)稅削減，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與受競(jìng)爭(zhēng)沖擊影響較小的企業(yè)相比，受競(jìng)爭(zhēng)沖擊影響較大的企業(yè)的外資所有權(quán)相對(duì)增加更大。此外，我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，外部融資和技術(shù)需求越高(越低)的企業(yè)，外資股東對(duì)內(nèi)資企業(yè)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)中獲得融資和新技術(shù)的戰(zhàn)略作用越強(qiáng)(越弱)。

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22.The political impacts of land expropriation in China

中國(guó)土地征收的政治影響

Wenbiao Sha

I study the political consequences of state expropriation of agricultural land in rural China by using national individual-level panel data for the period 2010–2018. Comparing outcomes before and after expropriation with changes among individuals not experiencing expropriation, I find that having one’s land expropriated decreases individuals’ trust towards local government officials, and increases the incidence of having conflicts with local government officials. I also provide evidence that the adverse political impacts can be mitigated by better local governance, undertaking projects with public benefits, and ex-ante non-agricultural employment.

本文利用2010-2018年的全國(guó)個(gè)人層面面板數(shù)據(jù)，研究了中國(guó)農(nóng)村土地征收的政治后果。通過(guò)比較土地被征收前后與未被征收個(gè)體的變化，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，土地被征收降低了個(gè)體對(duì)地方政府官員的信任，增加了與地方政府官員發(fā)生沖突的概率。我還提供了證據(jù)表明，通過(guò)更好的地方治理、開(kāi)展具有公共利益的項(xiàng)目和事先的非農(nóng)就業(yè)，可以緩解不利的政治影響。

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23.The more the poorer? Resource sharing and scale economies in large families

越多越窮?資源共享與大家庭規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)

Rossella Calvi, Jacob Penglase, Denni Tommasi, Alexander Wolf

In large families, individuals must share resources with many others but may benefit from economies of scale. This paper studies individual consumption in different types of households, with a focus on family structures that are common in developing countries. Based on a collective household model, we develop a methodology to identify intra-household resource allocation and the extent of joint consumption. Unlike existing approaches, we do not require consumption data on single-person households, which are rare in low-income countries. We illustrate our methodology using data from Bangladesh and Mexico. We document intra-household consumption inequality in both countries and substantial economies of scale in consumption in Mexico but not Bangladesh. Using our estimates, we then compute poverty rates for men, women, and children. Contrary to existing poverty calculations that ignore either intra-household inequality or economies of scale in consumption, ours account for both dimensions.

在大家庭中，個(gè)人必須與許多人分享資源，但可以從規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)中獲益。本文研究了不同類型家庭的個(gè)人消費(fèi)，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注發(fā)展中國(guó)家普遍存在的家庭結(jié)構(gòu)。基于一個(gè)集體家庭模型，我們開(kāi)發(fā)了一種方法來(lái)確定家庭內(nèi)部的資源配置和共同消費(fèi)的程度。與現(xiàn)有方法不同，我們不要求提供單身家庭的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)，這在低收入國(guó)家很少見(jiàn)。我們使用孟加拉國(guó)和墨西哥的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)說(shuō)明我們的方法。我們記錄了這兩個(gè)國(guó)家的家庭內(nèi)部消費(fèi)不平等，以及墨西哥在消費(fèi)方面的巨大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)，但孟加拉國(guó)沒(méi)有。然后，根據(jù)我們的估計(jì)，我們計(jì)算出男性、女性和兒童的貧困率。與現(xiàn)有的忽略家庭內(nèi)部不平等或消費(fèi)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)的貧困計(jì)算相反，我們的計(jì)算考慮了這兩個(gè)方面。

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24.Conflict and reciprocity: A study with Palestinian youths

沖突與互惠:對(duì)巴勒斯坦青年的研究

Elisa Cavatorta, Daniel John Zizzo, Yousef Daoud

This paper studies how reciprocity in the forms of conditional cooperation and vindictive behavior is affected by differential exposure to conflict. We use experimental games to measure preferences of adolescents living in the West Bank, and their obligation to cross military checkpoints to go to school as a proxy for differential exposure to the conflict. We find that adolescents who have an obligation to cross military checkpoints to go to school engage in more reciprocal behavior: they more frequently cooperate in response to cooperative behavior and retaliate against hostile behavior. Part of the effect is explained by changes in the beliefs about their peers’ behavior. A re-analysis of micro-datasets from other conflict contexts provides evidence of the generalizability of our results.

本文研究了不同沖突暴露程度對(duì)有條件合作和報(bào)復(fù)行為形式的互惠行為的影響。我們使用實(shí)驗(yàn)游戲來(lái)衡量生活在約旦河西岸的青少年的偏好，以及他們穿越軍事檢查站去上學(xué)的義務(wù)，作為沖突暴露的差異的代理。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，有義務(wù)穿越軍事檢查站去上學(xué)的青少年會(huì)有更多的互惠行為:他們更頻繁地對(duì)合作行為進(jìn)行合作，對(duì)敵對(duì)行為進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)。這種影響的部分原因是他們對(duì)同伴行為的信念發(fā)生了變化。對(duì)來(lái)自其他沖突環(huán)境的微觀數(shù)據(jù)集的重新分析為我們的結(jié)果的一般性提供了證據(jù)。

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25.Understanding the effects of racial classification in Apartheid South Africa

了解種族隔離的南非種族分類的影響

Miquel Pellicer, Vimal Ranchhod

The apartheid era began in 1948 in South Africa, and was implemented by passing several racially discriminatory laws. Most of the key legislative changes were introduced between 1949 and 1953. The cornerstone of this racially stratified legal system was the Population Registration Act of 1950, which required that all South Africans needed to be registered and assigned to an official racial category. We study the effect of racial classification in the context of these legislative reforms, by estimating the causal effect of being classified as White, relative to being classified as Coloured, on labour market outcomes. For identification we exploit a policy change that privileged ancestry over appearance in the process of racial classification for those born after 1951. Using census data from 1980, 1991, and 1996, we find a discontinuity in racial shares for cohorts born after 1951. Our preferred estimates indicate that being classified as White resulted in a more than fourfold increase in income for men. This corresponds to over 90% of the difference in mean incomes between men in the two population groups. Our findings for women are inconclusive.

南非的種族隔離時(shí)代始于1948年，并通過(guò)了幾項(xiàng)種族歧視法律來(lái)實(shí)施。大多數(shù)關(guān)鍵的立法變化是在1949年至1953年之間引入的。這種按種族分層的法律制度的基石是1950年的《人口登記法》，該法案要求所有南非人都必須進(jìn)行登記，并被劃入一個(gè)正式的種族類別。我們研究了在這些立法改革的背景下，種族分類的影響，通過(guò)估計(jì)被歸類為白人相對(duì)于被歸類為有色人種對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)結(jié)果的因果影響。在身份識(shí)別方面，我們利用了一項(xiàng)政策變化，即在種族分類過(guò)程中，1951年以后出生的人優(yōu)先考慮血統(tǒng)而不是外貌。利用1980年、1991年和1996年的人口普查數(shù)據(jù)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)1951年以后出生的群體在種族份額上存在不連續(xù)性。我們的首選估計(jì)表明，被歸類為白人導(dǎo)致男性收入增加了四倍多。這相當(dāng)于兩類人群中男性平均收入差異的90%以上。我們對(duì)女性的研究結(jié)果是不確定的。

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26.Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict

武器與戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng):武器轉(zhuǎn)讓對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)沖突的影響

Quentin Gallea

Despite the fact that weapons are necessary for conflicts, it remains unclear if weapons availability itself causes conflict. I use historical links between arms exporters and importers, and shocks to conflict engagement of the exporters, to instrument the volume of arms imports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that arms imports in Africa increase the likelihood of internal conflict, in particular one-sided violence, the number of fighter and civilian deaths, as well as the number of refugees fleeing the country. The results suggest that arms exporters have the ability to influence violence with their trade. Even if stopping exports might only postpone violence until more weapons are found, the momentary reduced violence could open a window to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful resolution.

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27.Public health departments and the mortality transition in Latin America: Evidence from Puerto Rico

公共衛(wèi)生部門與拉丁美洲的死亡率過(guò)渡:來(lái)自波多黎各的證據(jù)

Brian Marein

This paper examines the role of public health in reducing mortality prior to modern medicine by studying Puerto Rico in the early 20th century. From 1930 to 1960, Puerto Rico experienced one of the fastest increases in life expectancy in history and completed the first mortality transition outside of Europe and Western offshoots. Using municipal-level data in an event study framework, I show that public health units (county health departments) caused around half of the reduction in infant and tuberculosis mortality from 1923 to 1945, without significantly increasing public expenditures. Public health units also reduced maternal mortality and stillbirths. I present descriptive evidence that more assistant midwives per capita correspond to larger declines in maternal mortality, suggesting the importance of the training of midwives by health units. This investigation provides a window into Latin America more broadly, since most countries in Latin America subsequently adopted public health units.

本文通過(guò)研究20世紀(jì)早期的波多黎各，探討了在現(xiàn)代醫(yī)學(xué)之前，公共衛(wèi)生在降低死亡率方面的作用。從1930年到1960年，波多黎各經(jīng)歷了歷史上預(yù)期壽命增長(zhǎng)最快的時(shí)期之一，并完成了歐洲和西方分支以外的第一次死亡率轉(zhuǎn)型。利用事件研究框架中的市級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)，我表明，公共衛(wèi)生單位(縣衛(wèi)生部門)在1923年至1945年期間導(dǎo)致嬰兒和結(jié)核病死亡率下降的一半左右，但沒(méi)有顯著增加公共支出。公共衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)還減少了產(chǎn)婦死亡率和死胎。我提出的描述性證據(jù)表明，人均助理助產(chǎn)士人數(shù)越多，產(chǎn)婦死亡率下降的幅度就越大，這表明衛(wèi)生單位對(duì)助產(chǎn)士進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)的重要性。這項(xiàng)調(diào)查為更廣泛地了解拉丁美洲提供了一個(gè)窗口，因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)拉丁美洲國(guó)家隨后都建立了公共衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)。

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28.A hybrid approach to targeting social assistance

以社會(huì)援助為目標(biāo)的混合方法

Lendie Follett, Heath Henderson

Proxy means testing (PMT) and community-based targeting (CBT) are two of the leading methods for targeting social assistance in developing countries. We present a hybrid targeting method that incorporates CBT’s emphasis on local information and preferences with PMT’s reliance on verifiable indicators. Specifically, we outline a Bayesian framework for targeting that resembles PMT in that beneficiary selection is based on a weighted sum of sociodemographic characteristics, but we instead propose calibrating the weights to preference rankings from community targeting exercises. We discuss several practical extensions to the model, including a generalization to multiple rankings per community, an adjustment for elite capture, a method for incorporating auxiliary information on potential beneficiaries, and a dynamic updating procedure. We further provide an empirical illustration using data from Burkina Faso and Indonesia, which shows that our method achieves error rates lower than what PMT achieves when targeting household expenditures.

在發(fā)展中國(guó)家，替代性經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況調(diào)查(PMT)和社區(qū)定向(CBT)是確定社會(huì)援助目標(biāo)的兩種主要方法。我們提出了一種混合目標(biāo)方法，該方法結(jié)合了CBT對(duì)本地信息和偏好的強(qiáng)調(diào)和PMT對(duì)可驗(yàn)證指標(biāo)的依賴。具體而言，我們概述了一個(gè)類似于PMT的目標(biāo)定位貝葉斯框架，因?yàn)槭芤嫒诉x擇是基于社會(huì)人口特征的加權(quán)總和，但我們建議校準(zhǔn)社區(qū)目標(biāo)定位練習(xí)中的權(quán)重偏好排名。我們討論了該模型的幾個(gè)實(shí)際擴(kuò)展，包括每個(gè)社區(qū)多個(gè)排名的泛化、精英捕獲的調(diào)整、關(guān)于潛在受益人的輔助信息的合并方法以及動(dòng)態(tài)更新程序。我們進(jìn)一步利用布基納法索和印度尼西亞的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，結(jié)果表明，當(dāng)以家庭支出為目標(biāo)時(shí)，我們的方法的錯(cuò)誤率低于PMT方法。

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29.Motivating bureaucrats with behavioral insights when state capacity is weak: Evidence from large-scale field experiments in Peru

當(dāng)政府能力薄弱時(shí)，用行為洞察力激勵(lì)官僚:來(lái)自秘魯大規(guī)模實(shí)地實(shí)驗(yàn)的證據(jù)

Andrew Dustan, Juan Manuel Hernandez-Agramonte, Stanislao Maldonado

We study how text messages incorporating behavioral insights can be used as a tool to affect civil servant performance when state capacity is weak. By experimentally varying the content of a messaging campaign targeted to civil servants implementing a school maintenance program in Peru, we test the effectiveness of reminders and treatments making salient either monitoring, social norms, the possibility of public disclosure of noncompliance, or audit risk. All messaging treatments improve compliance by similar magnitudes, increasing the probability of submitting a key expense report by an average of 3.9 percentage points over a base of 74%. The inability of this large-scale experiment to detect differential impacts by treatment arm is consistent with timely reminders being the main driver of increased compliance. We explore generalizability across time and populations in two supplemental experiments, confirming the promise of such campaigns to improve civil servant performance when the state lacks enforcement capacity.

我們研究了在政府能力較弱的情況下，結(jié)合行為洞察力的短信如何被用作影響公務(wù)員績(jī)效的工具。通過(guò)實(shí)驗(yàn)性地改變針對(duì)秘魯實(shí)施學(xué)校維護(hù)計(jì)劃的公務(wù)員的信息傳遞活動(dòng)的內(nèi)容，我們測(cè)試了提醒和治療的有效性，這些提醒和治療突出了監(jiān)測(cè)、社會(huì)規(guī)范、公開(kāi)披露不合規(guī)行為的可能性或?qū)徲?jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。所有消息傳遞處理都以類似的幅度提高了合規(guī)程度，在74%的基礎(chǔ)上平均增加了3.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)提交關(guān)鍵費(fèi)用報(bào)告的可能性。這項(xiàng)大規(guī)模實(shí)驗(yàn)無(wú)法檢測(cè)治療臂的差異影響，這與及時(shí)提醒是增加依從性的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力是一致的。我們?cè)趦蓚€(gè)補(bǔ)充實(shí)驗(yàn)中探索了跨時(shí)間和人口的普遍性，證實(shí)了在國(guó)家缺乏執(zhí)法能力的情況下，這種運(yùn)動(dòng)有希望提高公務(wù)員的績(jī)效。

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30.Financial market responses to a natural disaster: Evidence from credit networks and the Indian Ocean tsunami

金融市場(chǎng)對(duì)自然災(zāi)害的反應(yīng):來(lái)自信貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)和印度洋海嘯的證據(jù)

Kristina Czura, Stefan Klonner

We examine changes in financial allocations in Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (Roscas), a popular group-based financial institution world-wide, in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. With financial data from locations along the South Indian coast we estimate the causal effect of this major natural disaster on financial flows between occupational groups, the price of credit and other loan characteristics. We find that the supply of funds in these credit networks remained remarkably stable, while demand by small and medium-scale entrepreneurs increased significantly. In response, substantial funds were channeled from wage-employed members and commercial investors to entrepreneurs. We conclude that natural disasters affect individuals with substantial heterogeneity and that the Roscas we study offer more scope for gains from trade in response to a seemingly aggregate shock than commonly assumed for traditional credit and insurance networks.

我們考察了2004年印度洋海嘯之后，全球流行的以團(tuán)體為基礎(chǔ)的金融機(jī)構(gòu)——輪流儲(chǔ)蓄和信貸協(xié)會(huì)(Roscas)的財(cái)政分配的變化。利用來(lái)自南印度海岸地區(qū)的金融數(shù)據(jù)，我們估計(jì)了這場(chǎng)重大自然災(zāi)害對(duì)職業(yè)群體之間的金融流動(dòng)、信貸價(jià)格和其他貸款特征的因果影響。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些信貸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的資金供給保持了顯著的穩(wěn)定，而中小企業(yè)家的資金需求顯著增加。作為回應(yīng)，大量資金從雇傭工資的成員和商業(yè)投資者流向企業(yè)家。我們的結(jié)論是，自然災(zāi)害對(duì)個(gè)體的影響具有很大的異質(zhì)性，我們所研究的Roscas在應(yīng)對(duì)看似總體的沖擊時(shí)提供了比通常假設(shè)的傳統(tǒng)信貸和保險(xiǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)更大的貿(mào)易收益空間。

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