The venture-capital bull run of the past two decades transformed what was once a cottage industry in Silicon Valley into a huge machine for building globally dominant companies. Over $600bn of venture funds were invested worldwide last year, nearly ten times the level a decade ago. Venture capital (vc) spread into new sectors, drew in new participants and became more global. Valuations rocketed as a sense took hold that the good times would never end.

過(guò)去20年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資牛市將硅谷曾經(jīng)的家庭手工業(yè)變成了打造全球主導(dǎo)企業(yè)的大型機(jī)器。去年全球風(fēng)投基金投資了6000多億美元，這幾乎是10年前的10倍。風(fēng)投擴(kuò)展到新的領(lǐng)域，吸引新的參與者，變得更加全球化。隨著“好時(shí)光永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)結(jié)束”的觀念深入人心，估值飆升。

Now the war in Ukraine, X’s purging of its tech industry and rising interest rates mean capitalism’s moon-shot machine is earthbound. Public markets were the first to be hit. The nasdaq index, which is weighted towards technology companies, has fallen by nearly 30% so far this year in a gruesome reckoning. The amount of capital raised through initial public offerings so far in 2022 is down by about 50% globally and by more than 70% in America compared with the same period last year.

moonshot：一個(gè)瘋狂的想法或者不大可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的項(xiàng)目，它被解決的科學(xué)幾率可能只有一百萬(wàn)分之一。谷歌特別將moonshot描述為一個(gè)需要激進(jìn)解決方案和突破性技術(shù)來(lái)解決的巨大難題。因此，一個(gè)moonshot需要大量的資金，即便是該項(xiàng)目可能永遠(yuǎn)都不會(huì)有任何成果。

【1】earthbound 不能離開(kāi)地球表面的；只在地球（或陸地表面）上的；平淡無(wú)奇的；缺乏想象力的

[釋義] unable to leave the surface of the earth；not exciting or showing much imagination

如今，俄烏戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、X對(duì)科技行業(yè)的“清理”以及利率的上升，意味著資本主義的"moonshot"機(jī)器已經(jīng)擱淺。公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)首先受到?jīng)_擊。在一次估值中，以科技公司為權(quán)重的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)今年到目前為止已經(jīng)下跌了近30%，這是恐怖的。到目前為止，與去年同期相比，2022年全球通過(guò)首次公開(kāi)募股籌集的資金減少了約50%，美國(guó)則減少了70%以上。

The public-market bloodbath is inevitably hurting the vc world. Losses in end-investors’ public portfolios put pressure on their private ones. Pension funds and endowments that committed large amounts of “dry powder” to private markets are trying to preserve cash by asking vcs to slow their pace of investing. Because there are more crossover funds, such as Tiger Global Management, which invest in several corners of the capital markets, the connection between public and private valuations has strengthened. Global investments made by vc funds in startups in May were worth $39bn, about 30% less than the monthly average for 2021. Already, 68% of vc funds are reporting markdowns of valuations in their portfolios.

Dry Powder：指的是投資機(jī)構(gòu)或基金所具有的儲(chǔ)備流動(dòng)資金，這部分資金用于未來(lái)的投資、收購(gòu)等事項(xiàng)。對(duì)于VC、PE來(lái)說(shuō)，Dry Powder是指基金手頭上已承諾但未分配的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備或流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)的數(shù)量。換句話說(shuō)，它是等待投資的未動(dòng)用現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備。

【1】bloodbath 大屠殺

【2】markdown 減價(jià)

公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)的大屠殺不可避免地傷害了風(fēng)投界。終極投資者的公共投資組合的損失給他們的私人投資組合帶來(lái)了壓力。向私募市場(chǎng)投入大量“彈藥”的養(yǎng)老基金和捐贈(zèng)基金，正試圖通過(guò)要求風(fēng)投放慢投資步伐來(lái)保存現(xiàn)金。由于出現(xiàn)了更多的跨界基金，比如投資于資本市場(chǎng)多個(gè)“角落”的老虎全球管理基金，公募和私募估值之間的聯(lián)系得到了加強(qiáng)。今年5月，風(fēng)投基金對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司的全球投資價(jià)值390億美元，比2021年的月平均水平低約30%。已經(jīng)有68%的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金報(bào)告其投資組合的估值下降。

Startups that rely on vc cash are, unsurprisingly, feeling the pain. Fledgling firms with little cash saved, especially in competitive sectors such as food delivery, will fare worst. And after a long boom, expect some dubious behaviour to be revealed. One concern is how interlinked tech firms might be. Some apparently profitable startups are earning money by providing services, from digital marketing to cloud computing, to other startups that are losing money and that in turn rely on endless blank cheques from their vc sponsors.?

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，依賴(lài)風(fēng)投資金的初創(chuàng)公司正承受著痛苦。那些沒(méi)有多少現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備的新興公司，尤其是像外賣(mài)這樣的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)行業(yè)的公司，將會(huì)遭遇最糟糕的情況。在長(zhǎng)期繁榮之后，一些可疑的行為將會(huì)被揭露。一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的問(wèn)題是，科技公司之間的聯(lián)系可能會(huì)有多緊密。一些表面上盈利的初創(chuàng)公司通過(guò)提供從數(shù)字營(yíng)銷(xiāo)到云計(jì)算等服務(wù)來(lái)賺錢(qián)，而其他正在虧損的初創(chuàng)公司則依賴(lài)于風(fēng)投贊助人無(wú)盡的空白支票。

Pessimists note that vc slumps take years to bottom out. Downturns caused by inflation and an oil shock meant the amount of money flowing into vc funds fell by 94% between 1969 and 1975. After the peak of the dotcom bubble, the rate at which vc funds deployed capital fell for more than two years.?

悲觀主義者指出，風(fēng)投的下滑需要數(shù)年時(shí)間才能觸底。通貨膨脹和石油危機(jī)導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退意味著在1969年到1975年間流入風(fēng)投基金的資金減少了94%。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫達(dá)到頂峰后，風(fēng)投基金資本配置率下降時(shí)間超過(guò)兩年。

Yet despite all this, the correction will not be as bad as the crash of 2000-01. For one thing, plenty of startups have built up war chests and so have healthy balance-sheets. Assuming a typical cash-burn rate, all but three of the 70-odd biggest software startups have raised enough funds to last until 2025.

【1】war chests 為需要經(jīng)過(guò)漫長(zhǎng)斗爭(zhēng)而取得成功而籌集的）資金，款項(xiàng)

然而，盡管如此，這次調(diào)整不會(huì)像2000-2001年的崩盤(pán)那樣嚴(yán)重。首先，許多創(chuàng)業(yè)公司都籌集了大量的資金，因此擁有健康的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。按照典型的現(xiàn)金消耗速度，70多家最大的軟件初創(chuàng)公司中，除了三家以外，其余都籌集到了足夠的資金，可以維持到2025年。

The vc industry is more institutionalised, too. Self-sustaining vc networks from Europe to Asia are less dependent on flighty American capital and have enduring links to local financial firms and entrepreneurs. End-investors such as pension funds and endowments have experienced enough of tech’s transformative effect on the economy to know not to run away.?

【1】flighty 不負(fù)責(zé)任的；充滿幻想的；反復(fù)無(wú)常的

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資行業(yè)也更加制度化了。從歐洲到亞洲的自我維持的風(fēng)投網(wǎng)絡(luò)較少依賴(lài)反復(fù)無(wú)常的美國(guó)資本，并且與當(dāng)?shù)亟鹑诠竞推髽I(yè)家有著持久的聯(lián)系。養(yǎng)老基金和捐贈(zèng)基金等終極投資者已經(jīng)充分體驗(yàn)了科技對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的變革性影響，因此知道不要逃跑。

Most important, the opportunity for innovation remains vast. The potential market for technology products has expanded hugely, beyond the bastions of business and consumer computing, to affect all parts of the business world, from biotech to supply-chain monitoring. What emerges from the chaos will be a leaner and more efficient industry—and one that will remain a powerful force.?

【1】bastion 堡壘

最重要的是，創(chuàng)新的機(jī)會(huì)依然巨大。科技產(chǎn)品的潛在市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)大幅擴(kuò)張，超出了商業(yè)和消費(fèi)計(jì)算堡壘，影響到了商業(yè)世界的方方面面，從生物技術(shù)到供應(yīng)鏈監(jiān)控。從混亂中出現(xiàn)的將是一個(gè)更精簡(jiǎn)、更高效的行業(yè)，一個(gè)仍將保持強(qiáng)大力量的行業(yè)。