正文翻譯

Analysis by Luke McGee, CNN Business

CNN商業(yè)頻道盧克·麥吉分析

London (CNN Business)Brexit might be done and dusted, but its specter will loom over Britain for a long time yet.

據(jù)CNN商業(yè)倫敦報道，英國脫歐或許已經(jīng)塵埃落定，但它的陰云還將在很長一段時間內(nèi)籠罩著英國。

For all the fanfare made when Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a trade deal with Brussels on Christmas Eve, the inescapable reality of leaving the European unx's customs and regulatory territory has already started to bite. The fact that the deal was only agreed one week before it came into effect meant that dangerous disruption to countless businesses that relied on seamless supply chains was inevitable.

盡管英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜在平安夜與布魯塞爾達(dá)成一項(xiàng)貿(mào)易協(xié)議時曾號角齊鳴，但英國脫離歐盟所造成的海關(guān)和監(jiān)管領(lǐng)地等不可避免的現(xiàn)實(shí)已經(jīng)開始對英國產(chǎn)生影響。該協(xié)議在生效前一周才達(dá)成，這意味著無數(shù)依賴于無縫銜接供應(yīng)鏈的企業(yè)將不可避免地會遭遇供應(yīng)鏈中斷的危險。

While it should be a source of embarrassment for the PM that his deal has made life very difficult for many of the industries that he has championed post-Brexit, Johnson's public statements on the matter suggest he is oblivious to the reality that many are facing.

雖然英國首相的交易讓他支持退歐后的許多行業(yè)生活非常困難這一事實(shí)足以讓首相感到尷尬，但約翰遜在這一問題上的公開聲明表明，他對許多行業(yè)面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)壓力視而不見。

"From the outset we were clear that we would be leaving the customs unx and single market which meant that there would be new processes after the end of the Transition Period. These were widely communicated through our public information campaign."

“從一開始，我們就很清楚我們將離開關(guān)稅聯(lián)盟和單一市場，這也意味著在過渡時期結(jié)束后將有新的進(jìn)程。這些事實(shí)都是通過我們的公共信息運(yùn)動廣泛傳播了的?！?/p>

The starkest example of what Brexit is doing to British business comes from Scotland's fishing industry. Despite the government's claims during Brexit negotiations that the fishing industry was very near the top of its priority list, there is a real fear that the entire industry could collapse in a matter of weeks.

脫歐對英國商業(yè)影響最明顯的例子是蘇格蘭的漁業(yè)。盡管政府在英國退歐談判期間聲稱漁業(yè)是其優(yōu)先考慮的行業(yè)，但人們確實(shí)擔(dān)心這整個行業(yè)可能會在短短幾周內(nèi)就崩潰。

"We had an entirely new system for exporters to get their heads around that hadn't been tested prior to use. The result, somewhat inevitably, was that it started going wrong straight away," says James Withers, chief executive of Scotland Food and Drink.

“我們之前為出口商提供了一個全新的系統(tǒng)來幫助他們理清頭緒，但是這個系統(tǒng)在使用前沒有經(jīng)過測試。所以不可避免地，結(jié)果不太好，這個系統(tǒng)一經(jīng)使用就立刻開始出問題了，”蘇格蘭食品飲料公司首席執(zhí)行官詹姆斯·威瑟斯說道。

"This isn't as simple as an IT glitch that needs fixing. In a matter of days, we went from being able to send fresh food to Madrid with a single cover sheet of paperwork. Now there are roughly 26 steps for each transaction."

“這并不像一個需要修復(fù)的IT小故障那么簡單。以前我們從只需要一張文書就可以把新鮮的食物送到馬德里，而現(xiàn)在，每筆交易大約有26個步驟要走，走完流程需要好幾天的時間?！?/p>

A truck drives past the Houses of Parliament in a protest against post-Brexit red tape.

一輛抗議脫歐后的手續(xù)繁雜的卡車駛過英國議會大廈。

The real-world impact of this means that some exporters have had the European market cut off overnight. Almost every day, pictures circulate on social media of virtually empty fish markets and boats tied up. Withers has heard stories of Scottish boats sailing 48 hours to process catches in Denmark, just to get their stock into the single market. In an industry where profit margins are often thin, every hour spent working around red tape is critical to both the freshness of the product and the productivity of the business.

這對現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的影響意味著，一些出口商在一夜之間切斷了歐洲市場。社交媒體上幾乎每天都流傳著這樣的圖片:魚市幾乎空空如也，船只被綁在一起沒有出海捕魚。威瑟斯聽說過這樣的故事：蘇格蘭的船需要航行48小時到丹麥處理捕到的魚，這樣做只是為了把它們的貨物運(yùn)到歐盟市場上銷售。在一個利潤率通常很低的行業(yè)，花在繁雜手續(xù)上的每一個小時，對產(chǎn)品的新鮮度和業(yè)務(wù)的生產(chǎn)率都至關(guān)重要。

When pushed on the matter, Johnson has said that he thinks these are merely teething issues and not the fault of his deal or the barriers it's created. His spokesman explains that the government is providing ￡23 million ($31.4 million) for the industry to ease the process.

當(dāng)被問及此事時，約翰遜表示，他認(rèn)為這些僅僅是脫歐初期的問題，并不是他的協(xié)議或協(xié)議造成的貿(mào)易壁壘的錯。他的發(fā)言人解釋說，政府將為該行業(yè)提供2300萬英鎊(3140萬美元)以緩解這一過渡期。

When asked specifically about the fishing industry earlier this week, Johnson once again denied that the problems facing exporters had anything to do with his deal, but instead were due to restaurants being shut because of the pandemic.

本周早些時候，當(dāng)被問及漁業(yè)的具體情況時，約翰遜再次否認(rèn)出口商面臨的問題與他的協(xié)議有關(guān)，他認(rèn)為疫情才是導(dǎo)致餐館關(guān)閉的原因。

However, Withers believes that money "will run out quickly" and without coming to some new sort of arrangement with the European unx, "this sort of exporting might not be sustainable" and will "almost certainly lead to the very people the [Prime Minister] said he was fighting for losing their jobs."

然而，威瑟斯認(rèn)為，政府提供的資金“很快就會用完”，而且如果英國不與歐盟達(dá)成某種新的協(xié)議的話，“這種出口可能是不可持續(xù)的”，而且“幾乎肯定會導(dǎo)致首相所說的那些他正在為之奮斗的人失業(yè)?！?/p>

Brexit issues are exacerbating a slowdown caused by pandemic restrictions, IHS Markit said on Friday, and lengthening suppliers' delivery times. While 33% of manufacturers reporting a drop in exports lixed the decline directly to the pandemic, some 60% lixed the drop to Brexit, according to IHS.

IHS Markit周五表示，英國退歐問題加劇了疫情封鎖造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，并延長了供應(yīng)商的交貨時間。根據(jù)IHS的數(shù)據(jù)，雖然33%的制造商報告出口的下降與疫情直接相關(guān)，但約60%的制造商稱出口下降與英國脫歐有關(guān)。

There is real concern among trucking companies and logistics firms that things are going to get much worse in the coming months.

貨運(yùn)公司和物流公司真正擔(dān)心的是未來幾個月情況會變得更糟。

Multiple sources within the affected sectors told CNN Business that British consumers won't feel much disruption yet, as January is a typically quiet month at ports and the United Kingdom did stockpile goods to prepare for a possible no-deal Brexit. But that could change as trade volumes increase over the coming months, putting border systems under additional pressure.

受影響行業(yè)的多位消息人士告訴CNN 商業(yè)頻道，英國消費(fèi)者目前還不會感到太大的困擾，因?yàn)?月份港口通常都比較安靜，而且為了應(yīng)對可能的無協(xié)議脫歐，英國也提前儲備了貨物。但隨著未來幾個月貿(mào)易量的增加，這種情況可能會發(fā)生變化，邊境系統(tǒng)會面臨額外的壓力。

A supermarket customer looks at near empty shelves in a supermarket in Belfast, Northern Ireland earlier this month.

本月初，在北愛爾蘭的貝爾法斯特，一名超市顧客看著附近空蕩蕩的貨架。

Trade experts are concerned about the gradual decline in EU-UK trade. "The slow decline is in some ways more dangerous than sudden food shortages," says David Henig, UK director at the European Centre For International Political Economy. "I am particularly concerned about exporters being unable to fulfill orders and losing customers or just giving up completely. The long-term message that sends could be very damaging for inward investment," he adds.

貿(mào)易專家擔(dān)心歐盟和英國之間的貿(mào)易逐漸下降。歐洲國際政治經(jīng)濟(jì)中心英國主管戴維·赫尼格表示:“在某些方面，這種貿(mào)易的緩慢下降比糧食突然短缺更危險。” “我特別擔(dān)心出口商無法完成訂單，失去客戶，或者干脆放棄訂單。而這些行為發(fā)出的長期信息可能會對外來投資造成極大損害，”他補(bǔ)充道。

And despite everyone involved working hard to resolve the early issues, Jerzewska fears this won't be enough to save struggling British exporters. "At the moment it's shock, but the underlying costs are not going away. And for traders who work at thin profit margins, an extra couple of percentage points could be the end."

盡管每個人都在努力解決早期的問題，但耶舍夫斯卡還是擔(dān)心這不足以拯救苦苦掙扎的英國出口商。“目前這很令人震驚，但潛在成本并沒有消失。對于那些利潤微薄的貿(mào)易商來說，再多虧幾個百分點(diǎn)就可能是他們的末日了?！?/p>

Many of Johnson's Conservative lawmakers are struggling with how to reply to their constituents. "The party gave us lines to read out when the deal came through presenting it as a huge success, but as time goes on, it's clear there's quite a lot of nasty surprises in Pandora's box," says one Conservative member of parliament.

約翰遜手下的許多保守黨議員都在為如何向他們的選民交代而苦苦掙扎?！包h給了我們在交易達(dá)成時可以直接宣讀出來的稿子，這些臺詞都傾向于如何描述巨大的成功，但隨著時間的推移，很明顯潘多拉的盒子里有很多令人討厭的驚喜。”一個保守黨議員這樣說道。

There isn't much optimism that things will improve in the near future among moderate Conservatives. Many are extremely worried that the gradual decline caused by Brexit will ultimately lead to Europe trying to lure Britain's golden goose to the continent: The City of London, which hosts many of the world's biggest banks.

溫和派保守派對近期情況是否會改善并不太樂觀。許多人非常擔(dān)心英國退歐導(dǎo)致的逐漸衰退最終可能將導(dǎo)致歐洲試圖把號稱“英國金鵝”的擁有世界上許多最大銀行的倫敦金融城吸引到歐洲大陸。

"Once the fog of Covid lifts, financial and professional services firms looking to expand globally will see London and realize that we have given up quite a lot of our competitive advantage," says the Conservative member of parliament.

這位保守黨議員表示:“一旦新冠肺炎的迷霧消散，尋求全球擴(kuò)張的金融和專業(yè)服務(wù)公司將發(fā)現(xiàn)倫敦，并意識到我們英國已經(jīng)放棄了相當(dāng)多的競爭優(yōu)勢。”

Those politicians will have to explain to voters why they encouraged their prime minister to pursue such a hard Brexit despite the warnings of its consequences. They have a couple of months before things get really bad to put pressure on Johnson to start engaging with the reality of Brexit a little more.

到那時，這些政客將不得不向選民解釋為什么當(dāng)初他們不顧后果的警告要鼓勵他們的首相堅(jiān)持退歐。在情況變得非常糟糕之前，他們還有幾個月的時間向約翰遜施壓，讓他開始更多地應(yīng)對英國脫歐的現(xiàn)實(shí)。

The question that matters most to those struggling is how bad things must get before those who most vocally supported Brexit are willing to break ranks and admit the truth: that leaving the world's largest trading bloc has immediate consequences.

在那些信誓旦旦支持英國退歐的人愿意解散隊(duì)伍并承認(rèn)離開世界上最大的貿(mào)易集團(tuán)會帶來不好的后果的真相之前，對于那些苦苦掙扎的人來說，最重要的問題是意識到事情會有多糟糕。