The great jobs boom

就業(yè)大繁榮

The rich world is enjoying an unprecedented jobs boom

富裕國(guó)家正在享受前所未有的就業(yè)繁榮

詞匯

Unprecedented/空前的；無(wú)前例的

Capitalism’s critics are yet to notice

資本主義的批評(píng)者還沒(méi)有注意到這一點(diǎn)

May 23rd 2019

EVERYONE SAYS work is miserable. Today’s workers, if they are lucky enough to escape the gig economy and have a real job, have lost control over their lives. They are underpaid and exploited by unscrupulous bosses. And they face a precarious future, as machines threaten to make them unemployable.

人人都說(shuō)工作是痛苦的。今天的工人，如果他們足夠幸運(yùn)地逃離零工經(jīng)濟(jì)，并擁有一份真正的工作，就已經(jīng)失去了對(duì)自己生活的控制。他們的工資過(guò)低，被無(wú)良的老板剝削。他們面臨著不穩(wěn)定的未來(lái)，因?yàn)闄C(jī)器有可能使他們失去工作。

詞匯

gig economy/臨時(shí)工經(jīng)濟(jì)

unscrupulous/ /?n'skru?pj?l?s/肆無(wú)忌憚的；寡廉鮮恥的；不講道德的

precarious/危險(xiǎn)的；不確定的

?

There is just one problem with this bleak picture: it is at odds with reality. As we report this week (see Briefing), most of the rich world is enjoying a jobs boom of unprecedented scope. Not only is work plentiful, but it is also, on average, getting better. Capitalism is improving workers’ lot faster than it has in years, as tight labour markets enhance their bargaining power. The zeitgeist has lost touch with the data.

這種黯淡的前景只有一個(gè)問(wèn)題:它與現(xiàn)實(shí)不符。正如我們本周報(bào)道的(見(jiàn)簡(jiǎn)報(bào))，大多數(shù)富裕國(guó)家正在享受前所未有的就業(yè)繁榮。不僅有大量的工作（崗位），而且平均來(lái)說(shuō)，情況正在好轉(zhuǎn)。隨著緊張的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)增強(qiáng)了工人的議價(jià)能力，資本主義對(duì)工人的改善速度比過(guò)去幾年快得多。時(shí)代思潮已經(jīng)與數(shù)據(jù)脫節(jié)。

詞匯

Bleak/ ?陰冷的；荒涼的，無(wú)遮蔽的；黯淡的，無(wú)希望的

Zeitgeist/時(shí)代思潮，時(shí)代精神

Just the job

僅僅是工作

In America the unemployment rate is only 3.6%, the lowest in half a century. Less appreciated is the abundance of jobs across most of the rich world. Two-thirds of the members of the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, enjoy record-high employment among 15- to 64-year-olds. In Japan 77% of this group has a job, up six percentage points in six years. This year Britons will work a record 350bn hours a month. Germany is enjoying a bonanza of tax revenue following a surge in the size of its labour force (see article). Even in France, Spain and Italy, where joblessness is still relatively high, working-age employment is close to or exceeds 2005 levels.

美國(guó)的失業(yè)率只有3.6%，是半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)的最低水平。大多數(shù)富裕國(guó)家的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)都很豐富，但人們對(duì)這一點(diǎn)卻不太欣賞。經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織(OECD)的成員國(guó)中，有三分之二的人在15歲至64歲之間享受著創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高就業(yè)率。在日本，這一群體中77%的人有工作，在6年內(nèi)上升了6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。今年，英國(guó)人的月工作時(shí)間將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的3500億小時(shí)。在勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模激增之后，德國(guó)正享受著巨額稅收。即使在失業(yè)率相對(duì)較高的法國(guó)、西班牙和意大利，適齡工人的就業(yè)率也接近或超過(guò)了2005年的水平。

詞匯

Bonanza/富礦帶；帶來(lái)好運(yùn)之事；幸運(yùn)

The rich-world jobs boom is partly cyclical—the result of a decade of economic stimulus and recovery since the great recession. But it also reflects structural shifts. Populations are becoming more educated. Websites are efficient at matching vacancies and qualified applicants. And ever more women work. In fact women account for almost all the growth in the rich-world employment rate since 2007. That has something to do with pro-family policies in Europe, but since 2015 the trend is found in America, too. Last, reforms to welfare programmes, both to make them less generous and to toughen eligibility tests, seem to have encouraged people to seek work.

發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的就業(yè)繁榮在一定程度上是周期性的——這是大蕭條以來(lái)十年經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激和復(fù)蘇的結(jié)果。但這也反映了結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變。人口的受教育程度越來(lái)越高。網(wǎng)站在匹配職位空缺和合格申請(qǐng)人方面非常有效。越來(lái)越多的女性開(kāi)始工作。事實(shí)上，自2007年以來(lái)，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的就業(yè)率增長(zhǎng)幾乎都是由女性貢獻(xiàn)的。這與歐洲的親家庭政策有關(guān)，但自2015年以來(lái)，美國(guó)也出現(xiàn)了這種趨勢(shì)。最后，福利項(xiàng)目的改革，既減少了他們的慷慨程度，也加強(qiáng)了資格測(cè)試，似乎鼓勵(lì)人們?nèi)フ夜ぷ鳌?/p>

詞匯

Vacancy/ ?空缺；空位；空白；空虛

Eligibility/適任，合格；被選舉資格

Thanks to the jobs boom, unemployment, once the central issue of political economy, has all but disappeared from the political landscape in many countries. It has been replaced by a series of complaints about the quality and direction of work. These are less tangible and harder to judge than employment statistics. The most important are that automation is destroying opportunities and that work, though plentiful, is low-quality and precarious. “Our jobs market is being turned into a sea of insecurity,” says Jeremy Corbyn, leader of Britain’s Labour Party.

由于就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的繁榮，曾經(jīng)是政治經(jīng)濟(jì)核心問(wèn)題的失業(yè)問(wèn)題，在許多國(guó)家?guī)缀鯊恼挝枧_(tái)上消失了。取而代之的是對(duì)工作質(zhì)量和方向的一系列抱怨。與就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)相比，這些數(shù)據(jù)不那么具體，也更難判斷。最重要的是，自動(dòng)化正在破壞就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，盡管工作機(jī)會(huì)很多，但質(zhì)量低下，不穩(wěn)定。英國(guó)工黨(Labour Party)領(lǐng)袖杰里米?科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)表示:“我們的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)正變成一片不安全的海洋?！?/p>

詞匯

Tangible/有形的；切實(shí)的；可觸摸的

Precarious/危險(xiǎn)的；不確定的

?

Again, reality begs to differ. In manufacturing, machines have replaced workers over a period of decades. This seems to have contributed to a pocket of persistent joblessness among American men. But across the OECD as a whole, a jobs apocalypse carried out by machines and algorithms, much feared in Silicon Valley, is nowhere to be seen. A greater share of people with only a secondary education or less is in work now than in 2000.

再一次，事實(shí)并非如此。在制造業(yè)，機(jī)器在過(guò)去幾十年里取代了工人。這似乎是造成美國(guó)男性持續(xù)失業(yè)的原因之一。但在整個(gè)經(jīng)合組織(OECD)內(nèi)部，由機(jī)器和算法造成的就業(yè)末日——硅谷對(duì)此非常擔(dān)憂——卻沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)。與2000年相比，現(xiàn)在只有中等教育程度或更低學(xué)歷的人有更大比例的人在工作。

詞匯

reality begs to differ/事實(shí)并非如此

apocalypse/啟示；天啟；大災(zāi)難

It is also true that middle-skilled jobs are becoming harder to find as the structure of the economy changes, and as the service sector—including the gig economy—expands. By 2026 America will have more at-home carers than secretaries, according to official projections. Yet as labour markets hollow out, more high-skilled jobs are being created than menial ones. Meanwhile, low-end work is becoming better paid, in part because of higher minimum wages. Across the rich world, wages below two-thirds of the national median are becoming rarer, not more common.

同樣，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，以及服務(wù)業(yè)(包括零工經(jīng)濟(jì))的擴(kuò)張，中等技能的工作越來(lái)越難找。根據(jù)官方預(yù)測(cè)，到2026年，美國(guó)在家照看孩子的人數(shù)將超過(guò)秘書(shū)。然而，隨著勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)空洞化，高技能工作崗位的需求量超過(guò)了低技能工作崗位。與此同時(shí)，低端工作的薪資水平正在提高，部分原因是最低工資水平提高了。在富裕國(guó)家，低于全國(guó)平均水平三分之二的工資越來(lái)越少，而不是越來(lái)越普遍。

詞匯

Menial/卑微的；仆人的；適合仆人做的

?

As for precariousness, in America traditional full-time jobs made up the same proportion of employment in 2017 as they did in 2005. The gig economy accounts for only around 1% of jobs there. In France, despite recent reforms to make labour markets more flexible, the share of new hires given permanent contracts recently hit an all-time high. The truly precarious work is found in southern European countries like Italy, and neither exploitative employers nor modern technology is to blame. The culprit is old-fashioned law that stitches up labour markets, locking out young workers in order to keep insiders in cushy jobs.

至于不穩(wěn)定性，2017年美國(guó)傳統(tǒng)全職工作在就業(yè)中所占的比例與2005年相同。零工經(jīng)濟(jì)僅占就業(yè)崗位的1%左右。在法國(guó)，盡管最近進(jìn)行了改革，使勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)更加靈活，但獲得永久合同的新雇員所占比例最近創(chuàng)下歷史新高。真正不穩(wěn)定的工作是在意大利等南歐國(guó)家找到的，這既不能歸咎于剝削型雇主，也不能歸咎于現(xiàn)代技術(shù)。罪魁禍?zhǔn)资顷惻f的法律，它縫合了（使飽和）勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)，將年輕工人拒之門(mén)外，以便讓內(nèi)部人士保住輕松（又好賺錢(qián)）的工作。

詞匯

Culprit/犯人，罪犯；罪魁禍?zhǔn)?/p>

stitch up/縫補(bǔ)【stitch sb. up? 算計(jì)某人】

cushy/輕松的；容易的；輕松又容易賺錢(qián)的

Elsewhere, the knock-on benefits of abundant work are becoming clear. As firms compete for workers rather than workers for jobs, average wage growth is rising, pushing up workers’ share of the pie—albeit not as fast as the extent of the boom might have suggested. Tight labour markets lead firms to fish for employees in neglected pools, including among ex-convicts, and to boost training amid skills shortages. American wonks fretted for years about how to shrink disability-benefit rolls. Now the hot labour market is doing it for them. Indeed, one attraction of the jobs boom is its potential to help solve social ills without governments having to do or spend very much.

在其他地方，大量工作的連鎖效應(yīng)正變得越來(lái)越明顯。由于企業(yè)爭(zhēng)奪的是工人而不是工人的工作，平均工資增長(zhǎng)正在上升，工人在薪酬這塊餡餅中所占的份額也在上升——盡管速度沒(méi)有繁榮時(shí)期所顯示的那么快。緊張的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)致公司在被忽視的人群中尋找員工，包括有前科的人，并在技能短缺的情況下加強(qiáng)培訓(xùn)。多年來(lái)，美國(guó)的書(shū)呆子們一直在為如何縮減殘疾人福利而煩惱?，F(xiàn)在火熱的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)正在為他們做這些。的確，就業(yè)熱潮的一個(gè)吸引力在于，它有可能幫助解決社會(huì)問(wèn)題，而無(wú)需政府付出太多努力或支出。

詞匯

Albeit/雖然，盡管

Neglected/被忽視的；未被好好照管的

Nonetheless, policymakers do have lessons to learn. Economists have again been humbled. They have consistently underestimated potential employment, leading to hesitant fiscal and monetary policy. Just as their sanguine outlook on finance in the 2000s contributed to the bust, so their mistaken pessimism about the potential for jobs growth in the 2010s has needlessly slowed the recovery.

盡管如此，政策制定者確實(shí)需要吸取教訓(xùn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們?cè)俅胃械街t卑。他們一直低估了潛在就業(yè)，導(dǎo)致財(cái)政和貨幣政策猶豫不決。正如他們對(duì)本世紀(jì)頭十年金融業(yè)前景的樂(lè)觀導(dǎo)致了泡沫破裂一樣，他們對(duì)本世紀(jì)頭十年就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)潛力的錯(cuò)誤悲觀情緒也不必要地減緩了復(fù)蘇。

The left needs to accept that many of the criticisms it levels at capitalism do not fit the facts. Life at the bottom of the labour market is not joyous—far from it. However, the lot of workers is improving and entry-level jobs are a much better launch pad to something better than joblessness is. A failure to acknowledge this will lead to government intervention that is at best unnecessary and at worst jeopardises recent progress. The jobs boom seems to be partly down to welfare reforms that the likes of Mr Corbyn have vociferously opposed.

左派需要接受的是，它對(duì)資本主義的許多批評(píng)都與事實(shí)不符。勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)底層的生活并不快樂(lè)——遠(yuǎn)非如此。然而，許多工人正在進(jìn)步，入門(mén)級(jí)工作是比失業(yè)更好的起點(diǎn)。如果不承認(rèn)這一點(diǎn)，政府的干預(yù)充其量是不必要的，最壞的情況下，這將危及近期的進(jìn)展。就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的繁榮似乎在一定程度上要?dú)w功于科爾賓等人強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)的福利改革。

詞匯

Jeopardise/危及（等于jeopardize）；使…受危險(xiǎn)

The right should acknowledge that jobs have boomed without the bonfire of regulations that typically forms its labour-market policy. In fact, labour-market rules are proliferating. And although the jury is out on whether rising minimum wages are harming some groups, such as the young, they are not doing damage that is large enough to show up in aggregate.

右翼應(yīng)該承認(rèn)，在沒(méi)有形成其勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)政策的典型監(jiān)管措施的情況下，就業(yè)已經(jīng)大幅增長(zhǎng)。事實(shí)上，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)規(guī)則正在激增。盡管目前還不清楚提高最低工資是否會(huì)對(duì)一些群體造成損害，比如年輕人，但它們?cè)斐傻膿p害還沒(méi)有大到足以體現(xiàn)在整體上。

詞匯

Proliferating/（數(shù)字）激增；

?

The jobs boom will not last for ever. Eventually, a recession will kill it off. Meanwhile, it deserves a little appreciation.

就業(yè)熱潮不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去。最終，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會(huì)將其扼殺。但同時(shí)，這也是值得稱贊的。

?