The Review of Economic Studies??2023年第3期

Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023

——更多動(dòng)態(tài)，請(qǐng)持續(xù)關(guān)注gzh：理想主義的百年孤獨(dú)

When Less is More: Improving Choices in Health Insurance Markets

當(dāng)少即是多:改善健康保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的選擇

Jason Abaluck?and?Jonathan Gruber

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1011–1040,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac050

We study the impact of changing choice set size on the quality of choices in health insurance markets. Using novel data on enrolment and medical claims for school district employees in the state of Oregon, we document that the average employee could save $600 by switching to a lower cost plan. Structural modelling reveals large “choice inconsistencies” such as non-equalization of the dollar spent on premiums and out of pocket, and a novel form of “approximate inertia” where enrolees are excessively likely to switch to other plans that are close to the current plan on the plan design spreadsheet. Variation in the number of plan choices across districts and over time shows that enrolees make lower-cost choices when the choice set is smaller. We show that a curated restriction of choice set size improves choices more than the best available information intervention, partly because approximate inertia lowers gains from new information. We explicitly test and reject the assumption that this is because individuals choose worse from larger choice sets, or “choice overload”. Rather, we show that this feature arises from the fact that larger choice sets feature worse choices on average that are not offset by individual re-optimization.

我們研究了改變選擇集大小對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)選擇質(zhì)量的影響。利用俄勒岡州學(xué)區(qū)雇員的入學(xué)和醫(yī)療索賠的新數(shù)據(jù)，我們證明，普通雇員可以通過(guò)切換到成本較低的計(jì)劃節(jié)省600美元。結(jié)構(gòu)模型揭示了巨大的“選擇不一致”，比如花在保費(fèi)和自掏腰包上的錢(qián)不均衡，以及一種新形式的“近似慣性”，即參保人極有可能切換到與計(jì)劃設(shè)計(jì)電子表格上的當(dāng)前計(jì)劃接近的其他計(jì)劃。不同地區(qū)和不同時(shí)期的計(jì)劃選擇數(shù)量的變化表明，當(dāng)選擇集較小時(shí)，參保者會(huì)做出成本較低的選擇。我們表明，對(duì)選擇集大小的精心限制比最佳可用信息干預(yù)更能改善選擇，部分原因是近似慣性降低了新信息的收益。我們明確地測(cè)試并拒絕了這樣的假設(shè)，即這是因?yàn)閭€(gè)體從更大的選擇集中選擇更差，或者“選擇過(guò)載”。相反，我們表明，這個(gè)特征源于這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即更大的選擇集平均具有更差的選擇，而這些選擇不會(huì)被單獨(dú)的重新優(yōu)化所抵消。

Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction

華爾街和硅谷:微妙的互動(dòng)

George-Marios Angeletos?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1041–1083,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac043

Abstract

Entrepreneurs and venture capitalists are concerned about investors’ beliefs in asset markets because these beliefs shape the value of a potential IPO and the possibility to expand. Investors’ beliefs, on the other hand, can be influenced by start-up activity insofar as the latter contains valuable information about eventual profitability. This two-way feedback is shown to generate excessive, non-fundamental, waves in start-up activity, IPOs, and asset prices. Policies that “l(fā)ean against the wind” can improve welfare, without requiring an informational advantage by the government.

企業(yè)家和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本家擔(dān)心投資者對(duì)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的信念，因?yàn)檫@些信念決定了潛在IPO的價(jià)值和擴(kuò)張的可能性。另一方面，投資者的信念可能受到初創(chuàng)企業(yè)活動(dòng)的影響，因?yàn)楹笳甙嘘P(guān)最終盈利能力的寶貴信息。這種雙向反饋被證明會(huì)在創(chuàng)業(yè)活動(dòng)、ipo和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格中產(chǎn)生過(guò)度的、非基本面的波動(dòng)。“逆風(fēng)而行”的政策可以改善福利，而不需要政府的信息優(yōu)勢(shì)。

Matching in Dynamic Imbalanced Markets

動(dòng)態(tài)不平衡市場(chǎng)中的匹配

Itai Ashlagi?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1084–1124,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac044

Abstract

We study dynamic matching in exchange markets with easy- and hard-to-match agents. A greedy policy, which attempts to match agents upon arrival, ignores the positive externality that waiting agents provide by facilitating future matchings. We prove that the trade-off between a “thicker” market and faster matching vanishes in large markets; the greedy policy leads to shorter waiting times and more agents matched than any other policy. We empirically confirm these findings in data from the National Kidney Registry. Greedy matching achieves as many transplants as commonly used policies (1.8|$\%$|more than monthly batching) and shorter waiting times (16 days faster than monthly batching).

我們研究了具有易匹配和難匹配代理的交易市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)態(tài)匹配。貪婪策略試圖在到達(dá)時(shí)匹配代理，忽略了等待代理通過(guò)促進(jìn)未來(lái)匹配而提供的正外部性。我們證明，在大市場(chǎng)中，“更厚”的市場(chǎng)和更快的匹配之間的權(quán)衡消失了;與其他策略相比，貪婪策略的等待時(shí)間更短，匹配的代理數(shù)量更多。我們?cè)趪?guó)家腎臟登記處的數(shù)據(jù)中證實(shí)了這些發(fā)現(xiàn)。貪婪匹配實(shí)現(xiàn)與常用策略一樣多的移植(比每月批處理多1.8|$\%$|)和更短的等待時(shí)間(比每月批處理快16天)。

Infrequent Random Portfolio Decisions in an Open Economy Model

開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)模型中的不常見(jiàn)隨機(jī)投資組合決策

Philippe Bacchetta?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1125–1154,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac054

Abstract

We introduce a portfolio friction in a two-country DSGE model where investors face a constant probability to make new portfolio decisions. The friction leads to a more gradual portfolio adjustment to shocks and a weaker portfolio response to changes in expected excess returns. We apply the model to monthly data for the US and the rest of the world for equity portfolios. We show that the model is consistent with a broad set of evidence related to portfolios, equity prices, and excess returns for an intermediate level of friction. The evidence includes portfolio inertia, limited sensitivity to expected excess returns, a significant impact of financial shocks, excess return predictability, and asset price momentum and reversal.

我們?cè)谝粋€(gè)兩國(guó)DSGE模型中引入了一個(gè)投資組合摩擦，在這個(gè)模型中，投資者面臨一個(gè)恒定的概率來(lái)做出新的投資組合決策。這種摩擦導(dǎo)致投資組合對(duì)沖擊的調(diào)整更加漸進(jìn)，對(duì)預(yù)期超額收益變化的反應(yīng)更弱。我們將該模型應(yīng)用于美國(guó)和世界其他地區(qū)股票投資組合的月度數(shù)據(jù)。我們表明，該模型與一系列與投資組合、股票價(jià)格和中間摩擦水平的超額回報(bào)相關(guān)的廣泛證據(jù)是一致的。證據(jù)包括投資組合慣性、對(duì)預(yù)期超額回報(bào)的有限敏感性、金融沖擊的重大影響、超額回報(bào)的可預(yù)測(cè)性以及資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的動(dòng)量和反轉(zhuǎn)。

Estimating Intergenerational and Assortative Processes in Extended Family Data

估算擴(kuò)展家庭數(shù)據(jù)的代際和分類(lèi)過(guò)程

M Dolores Collado?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1195–1227,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac060

Abstract

We quantify intergenerational and assortative processes by comparing different degrees of kinship within the same generation. This “horizontal” approach yields more, and more distant kinship moments than traditional methods, which allows us to account for the transmission of latent advantages in a detailed intergenerational model. Using Swedish registers, we find strong persistence in the latent determinants of status, and a striking degree of sorting—to explain the similarity of distant kins, assortative matching must be much stronger than previously thought. Latent genetic influences explain little of the variance in educational attainment, and sorting occurs primarily in non-genetic factors.

我們量化代際和分類(lèi)過(guò)程通過(guò)比較不同程度的親屬關(guān)系在同一代。這種“橫向”方法比傳統(tǒng)方法產(chǎn)生更多、更遙遠(yuǎn)的親屬關(guān)系時(shí)刻，這使我們能夠在一個(gè)詳細(xì)的代際模型中解釋潛在優(yōu)勢(shì)的傳遞。通過(guò)使用瑞典的注冊(cè)表，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在身份的潛在決定因素中有很強(qiáng)的持久性，并且排序的程度驚人——為了解釋遠(yuǎn)親的相似性，分類(lèi)匹配必須比以前認(rèn)為的要強(qiáng)得多。潛在的遺傳影響幾乎不能解釋教育程度的差異，而分選主要發(fā)生在非遺傳因素上。

Price Discrimination and Public Policy in the US College Market

美國(guó)大學(xué)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格歧視與公共政策

Ian Fillmore

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1228–1264,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac051

Abstract

In the US, the federal government grants colleges access to a student’s Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) which facilitates substantial price discrimination. This article is the first to estimate the consequences of allowing colleges to use the FAFSA in their pricing decisions. I build and estimate a structural model of college pricing and simulate counterfactuals wherein some or all of the FAFSA information is restricted. I find that if FAFSA information were restricted, 13|$\%$|of students attending elite colleges would be inefficiently priced out of the elite market. Nevertheless, student welfare would rise as colleges charged the majority of students lower prices. Colleges do use the FAFSA to transfer resources from high- to low-income students on average, but this redistribution is highly imprecise: allowing colleges to use the FAFSA harms one-third of low-income students while one in seven high-income students actually benefit.

在美國(guó)，聯(lián)邦政府允許大學(xué)獲得學(xué)生免費(fèi)申請(qǐng)聯(lián)邦學(xué)生援助(FAFSA)的權(quán)利，這導(dǎo)致了嚴(yán)重的價(jià)格歧視。這篇文章是第一個(gè)估計(jì)允許大學(xué)在他們的定價(jià)決策中使用FAFSA的后果。我建立并估計(jì)了一個(gè)大學(xué)定價(jià)的結(jié)構(gòu)模型，并模擬了一些或全部FAFSA信息受到限制的反事實(shí)。我發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果FAFSA的信息受到限制，那么就讀精英大學(xué)的13億美元的學(xué)生將被無(wú)效地排除在精英市場(chǎng)之外。然而，隨著大學(xué)向大多數(shù)學(xué)生收取較低的學(xué)費(fèi)，學(xué)生福利將會(huì)增加。大學(xué)確實(shí)利用FAFSA將資源從高收入學(xué)生平均轉(zhuǎn)移到低收入學(xué)生，但這種再分配非常不精確:允許大學(xué)使用FAFSA損害了三分之一的低收入學(xué)生，而七分之一的高收入學(xué)生實(shí)際上受益。

Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: A Test of the Efficiency of Separations

邊際工作與工作剩余:分離效率的檢驗(yàn)

Simon J?ger?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1265–1303,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac045

Abstract

We present a test of Coasean theories of efficient separations. We study a cohort of jobs from the introduction through the repeal of a large age- and region-specific unemployment benefit extension in Austria. In the treatment group, 18.5|$\%$|fewer jobs survive the program period. According to the Coasean view, the destroyed marginal jobs had low joint surplus. Hence, after the repeal, the treatment survivors should be more resilient than the ineligible control group survivors. Strikingly, the two groups instead exhibit identical post-repeal separation behaviour. We provide, and find suggestive evidence consistent with, an alternative model in which wage rigidity drives the inefficient separation dynamics.

我們提出了科斯的有效分離理論的檢驗(yàn)。我們研究了奧地利從引入到廢除大規(guī)模年齡和地區(qū)特定失業(yè)救濟(jì)金延長(zhǎng)的一系列工作。在治療組中，在項(xiàng)目期間存活下來(lái)的工作減少了18.5個(gè)。根據(jù)科斯的觀(guān)點(diǎn)，被摧毀的邊際工作的聯(lián)合剩余很低。因此，在廢除后，治療幸存者應(yīng)該比不符合條件的對(duì)照組幸存者更有彈性。引人注目的是，這兩個(gè)群體在廢除后反而表現(xiàn)出相同的分離行為。我們提供，并發(fā)現(xiàn)與之相一致的暗示證據(jù)，另一種模型中，工資剛性驅(qū)動(dòng)低效的分離動(dòng)態(tài)。

Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations: A Resolution of the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle

資產(chǎn)價(jià)格與失業(yè)波動(dòng):解決失業(yè)波動(dòng)之謎

Patrick J Kehoe?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1304–1357,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac048

Abstract

Recent work has demonstrated that existing solutions of the unemployment volatility puzzle are at odds with the procylicality of the opportunity cost of employment, the cyclicality of wages, and the volatility of risk-free rates. We propose a model of business cycles that is immune to these critiques by incorporating two key features. First, we allow for preferences that generate time-varying risk over the business cycle to account for observed fluctuations in asset prices. Second, we introduce human capital acquisition, as is consistent with the evidence on how wages grow with experience in the labor market. Our model reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long-duration returns. As in the data, the price of risk in our model sharply increases in recessions. The benefit from hiring new workers therefore greatly declines, leading to a large decrease in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment of the same magnitude as in the data. We show that our results extend to versions of the model that include physical capital, a life cycle for workers, and alternative preference structures common in the asset-pricing literature.

最近的研究表明，失業(yè)波動(dòng)之謎的現(xiàn)有解決方案與就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)成本的順周期性、工資的周期性和無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率的波動(dòng)性不一致。我們提出了一個(gè)商業(yè)周期模型，通過(guò)結(jié)合兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵特征，它不受這些批評(píng)的影響。首先，我們考慮到在商業(yè)周期中產(chǎn)生時(shí)變風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的偏好，以解釋觀(guān)察到的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)。其次，我們引入了人力資本獲取，這與勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)中工資如何隨著經(jīng)驗(yàn)增長(zhǎng)的證據(jù)是一致的。我們的模型再現(xiàn)了觀(guān)察到的失業(yè)率波動(dòng)，因?yàn)楣蛡蚬と耸且豁?xiàng)具有長(zhǎng)期回報(bào)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。正如數(shù)據(jù)顯示的那樣，我們模型中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)格在衰退中急劇上升。因此，雇用新工人帶來(lái)的好處大大下降，導(dǎo)致職位空缺大幅減少，失業(yè)率上升，與數(shù)據(jù)中顯示的幅度相同。我們表明，我們的結(jié)果擴(kuò)展到模型的版本，包括實(shí)物資本，工人的生命周期，以及資產(chǎn)定價(jià)文獻(xiàn)中常見(jiàn)的替代偏好結(jié)構(gòu)。

Sentimental Business Cycles

情感商業(yè)周期

Andresa Lagerborg?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1358–1393,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac053

Abstract

We estimate the dynamic causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks in the US. We identify autonomous changes in survey evidence on consumer confidence using fatalities in mass shootings as an instrument. We find the instrument to be significant for an aggregate index of consumer expectations and also back up the identification scheme with micro evidence that exploits the geographical variation in mass shootings. Sentiment shocks have real macroeconomic effects. A negative sentiment shock is recessionary: It sets off a persistent decline in consumer confidence and induces a contraction in industrial production, private sector consumption and in the labour market, while having less evident nominal effects. Finally, sentiment shocks explain a non-negligible part of the cyclical fluctuations in consumer confidence and real macroeconomic aggregates.

我們估計(jì)了美國(guó)消費(fèi)者信心沖擊的動(dòng)態(tài)因果效應(yīng)。我們以大規(guī)模槍擊事件中的死亡人數(shù)為工具，確定了消費(fèi)者信心調(diào)查證據(jù)的自主變化。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)該工具對(duì)于消費(fèi)者期望的綜合指數(shù)具有重要意義，并且還利用大規(guī)模槍擊事件中地理差異的微觀(guān)證據(jù)來(lái)支持識(shí)別方案。情緒沖擊會(huì)對(duì)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生真正的影響。負(fù)面情緒沖擊是衰退性的:它引發(fā)消費(fèi)者信心持續(xù)下降，導(dǎo)致工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、私人部門(mén)消費(fèi)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)萎縮，而名義效應(yīng)則不那么明顯。最后，情緒沖擊解釋了消費(fèi)者信心和實(shí)際宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的周期性波動(dòng)中不可忽視的一部分。

Consumer Search and Prices in the Automobile Market

汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)中的消費(fèi)者搜索和價(jià)格

José Luis Moraga-González?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1394–1440,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac047

Abstract

This article develops a discrete choice model of demand with optimal sequential consumer search. Consumers first choose a product to search; then, once they learn the utility they get from the searched product, they choose whether to buy it or to keep searching. We characterize the search problem as a standard discrete choice problem and propose a parametric search cost distribution that generates closed-form expressions for the probability of purchasing a product. We propose a method to estimate the model that supplements aggregate product data with individual-specific data which allows for the separate identification of search costs and preferences. We estimate the model using data from the automobile industry and find that search costs have non-trivial implications for elasticities and markups. We study the effects of exclusive dealing regulation and find that firms benefit at the expense of consumers, who face higher search costs and higher prices than would be the case if multi-brand dealerships were used.

本文建立了一個(gè)具有最優(yōu)順序消費(fèi)者搜索的離散需求選擇模型。消費(fèi)者首先選擇產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行搜索;然后，一旦他們了解了他們從搜索產(chǎn)品中獲得的效用，他們就會(huì)選擇是購(gòu)買(mǎi)還是繼續(xù)搜索。我們將搜索問(wèn)題描述為一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的離散選擇問(wèn)題，并提出了一個(gè)參數(shù)搜索成本分布，該分布生成了購(gòu)買(mǎi)產(chǎn)品概率的封閉形式表達(dá)式。我們提出了一種方法來(lái)估計(jì)模型，該模型補(bǔ)充了個(gè)人特定數(shù)據(jù)的匯總產(chǎn)品數(shù)據(jù)，允許單獨(dú)識(shí)別搜索成本和偏好。我們使用來(lái)自汽車(chē)行業(yè)的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)估計(jì)模型，并發(fā)現(xiàn)搜索成本對(duì)彈性和加價(jià)有重要的影響。我們研究了獨(dú)家交易監(jiān)管的影響，發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)以犧牲消費(fèi)者為代價(jià)而受益，消費(fèi)者面臨著比使用多品牌經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商更高的搜索成本和更高的價(jià)格。

Reputation Building under Observational Learning

觀(guān)察學(xué)習(xí)下的聲譽(yù)建設(shè)

Harry Pei

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1441–1469,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac052

Abstract

A patient seller interacts with a sequence of myopic consumers. Each period, the seller chooses the quality of his product, and a consumer decides whether to trust the seller after she observes the seller’s actions in the last|$K$|?periods (limited memory) and at least one previous consumer’s action (observational learning). However, the consumer cannot observe the seller’s action in the current period. With positive probability, the seller is a commitment type who plays his Stackelberg action in every period. I show that under limited memory and observational learning, consumers are concerned that the seller will not play his Stackelberg action when he has a positive reputation and will play his Stackelberg action after he has lost his reputation. Such a concern leads to equilibria where the seller receives a low payoff from building a reputation. I also show that my reputation failure result hinges on consumers’ observational learning.

We Are All Behavioural, More, or Less: A Taxonomy of Consumer Decision-Making

我們都是行為的，或多或少:消費(fèi)者決策的分類(lèi)

Victor Stango?and?Jonathan Zinman

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1470–1498,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac055

Abstract

We examine how 17 behavioural biases relate to each other, to three standard measures of risk and time preferences, to cognitive skills, personality, and demographics, and to outcomes in household finance, well-being, and health. Most consumers in our nationally representative panel data exhibit multiple biases, with substantial cross-person heterogeneity. Biases are positively correlated within person, especially after adjusting for measurement error. From that correlation structure, we reduce our 20 bias and standard preference measures to four behavioural common factors. Each BCF reflects a group of related biases regarding beliefs, decision quality, discounting, or risk/uncertainty attitudes. The first two BCFs also strongly correlate with each other (positively) and cognitive skills (negatively). The first three BCFs and cognitive skills strongly correlate with various outcomes in the expected directions. Our results support processing-based models where basic limitations in cognition and/or attention produce multiple biases, and they have several other implications for theory and practice.

我們研究了17種行為偏差如何相互關(guān)聯(lián)，與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和時(shí)間偏好的三種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)測(cè)量，認(rèn)知技能，個(gè)性和人口統(tǒng)計(jì)，以及家庭財(cái)務(wù)，福祉和健康的結(jié)果。在我們具有全國(guó)代表性的面板數(shù)據(jù)中，大多數(shù)消費(fèi)者表現(xiàn)出多重偏見(jiàn)，具有實(shí)質(zhì)性的跨人異質(zhì)性。偏差在人體內(nèi)正相關(guān)，特別是在調(diào)整測(cè)量誤差后。從這種關(guān)聯(lián)結(jié)構(gòu)中，我們將20種偏見(jiàn)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏好措施減少到4種行為共同因素。每個(gè)BCF反映了一組有關(guān)信念、決策質(zhì)量、貼現(xiàn)或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/不確定性態(tài)度的相關(guān)偏見(jiàn)。前兩個(gè)bcf之間也有很強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性(正相關(guān))，認(rèn)知技能之間也有很強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性(負(fù)相關(guān))。前三個(gè)bcf和認(rèn)知技能與預(yù)期方向的各種結(jié)果密切相關(guān)。我們的研究結(jié)果支持基于處理的模型，在這種模型中，認(rèn)知和/或注意力的基本限制會(huì)產(chǎn)生多種偏見(jiàn)，并且它們對(duì)理論和實(shí)踐有其他一些啟示。

The Missing Profits of Nations

國(guó)家失去的利潤(rùn)

Thomas T?rsl?v?and others

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1499–1534,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac049

Abstract

By exploiting new macroeconomic data known as foreign affiliates statistics, we show that affiliates of foreign multinational firms are an order of magnitude more profitable than local firms in a number of low-tax countries. Leveraging this differential profitability, we estimate that 36|$\%$|of multinational profits are shifted to tax havens globally. US multinationals shift twice as much profit as other multinationals relative to the size of their foreign earnings. We analyse how the location of corporate profits would change if shifted profits were reallocated to their source countries. Domestic profits would increase by about 20|$\%$|?in high-tax European Union countries, 10|$\%$|?in the US, and 5|$\%$|?in developing countries, while they would fall by 55|$\%$|?in tax havens. We provide a new international database of GDP, trade balances, and factor shares corrected for profit shifting. In contrast to the picture painted by official statistics, our results suggest that the corporate capital share has increased not only in North America but also in high-tax European countries. Capital is making a comeback globally, but its rise is obscured by the tax avoidance strategies of multinational companies.

通過(guò)利用被稱(chēng)為外國(guó)子公司統(tǒng)計(jì)的新宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，我們表明，在一些低稅收國(guó)家，外國(guó)跨國(guó)公司的子公司比當(dāng)?shù)毓镜睦麧?rùn)高出一個(gè)數(shù)量級(jí)。利用這種不同的盈利能力，我們估計(jì)有360億美元的跨國(guó)公司利潤(rùn)被轉(zhuǎn)移到全球的避稅天堂。相對(duì)于海外收入規(guī)模，美國(guó)跨國(guó)公司轉(zhuǎn)移的利潤(rùn)是其他跨國(guó)公司的兩倍。我們分析了如果轉(zhuǎn)移的利潤(rùn)重新分配到其來(lái)源國(guó)，企業(yè)利潤(rùn)的位置將如何變化。高稅收的歐盟國(guó)家的國(guó)內(nèi)利潤(rùn)將增長(zhǎng)約200億美元，美國(guó)將增長(zhǎng)100億美元，發(fā)展中國(guó)家將增長(zhǎng)50億美元，而避稅天堂的利潤(rùn)將下降550億美元。我們提供了一個(gè)新的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、貿(mào)易平衡和要素份額的國(guó)際數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，并對(duì)利潤(rùn)轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)行了修正。與官方統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)所描繪的情況相反，我們的研究結(jié)果表明，不僅在北美，而且在高稅收的歐洲國(guó)家，企業(yè)資本份額也有所增加。資本正在全球范圍內(nèi)卷土重來(lái)，但跨國(guó)公司的避稅策略掩蓋了它的崛起。

Hours Constraints, Occupational Choice, and Gender: Evidence from Medical Residents

工時(shí)限制、職業(yè)選擇與性別:來(lái)自住院醫(yī)師的證據(jù)

Melanie Wasserman

The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1535–1568,?https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac042

Abstract

Do the long work hours required by many high-paying professions inhibit the entry of women? I investigate this question by studying a 2003 policy that capped the average workweek for medical residents at 80 hours. Using data on the universe of US medical school graduates, I find that when a specialty reduces its weekly hours, more women enter the specialty, whereas there is little change in men’s entry. I provide evidence that the increase in women is due to changes in labour supply, rather than labour demand. At the residency program level, I document that baseline female representation predicts female entry after the reform. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the reallocation of women among medical specialties due to the hours reduction can close the physician gender wage gap by 11|$\%$|?.

許多高薪職業(yè)所要求的長(zhǎng)時(shí)間工作是否阻礙了女性的進(jìn)入?我通過(guò)研究2003年的一項(xiàng)政策來(lái)調(diào)查這個(gè)問(wèn)題，該政策將住院醫(yī)生的平均每周工作時(shí)間限制在80小時(shí)以?xún)?nèi)。利用美國(guó)醫(yī)學(xué)院畢業(yè)生的數(shù)據(jù)，我發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)一個(gè)專(zhuān)業(yè)減少每周工作時(shí)間時(shí)，更多的女性進(jìn)入該專(zhuān)業(yè)，而男性進(jìn)入該專(zhuān)業(yè)的人數(shù)幾乎沒(méi)有變化。我提供的證據(jù)表明，女性人數(shù)的增加是由于勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)的變化，而不是勞動(dòng)力需求的變化。在住院醫(yī)師計(jì)劃層面，我記錄了女性代表的基線(xiàn)預(yù)測(cè)了改革后女性的加入。一個(gè)粗略的計(jì)算表明，由于工作時(shí)間的減少，在醫(yī)學(xué)專(zhuān)業(yè)中重新分配婦女可以將醫(yī)生的性別工資差距縮小110億美元。